Did AIDS Hysteria Prefigure Covid Hysteria?
Today we’re publishing an original contribution to one of the most interesting sections on the right-hand side: “How Have We Responded to Previous Pandemics?” This one is by veteran science and medical correspondent Neville Hodgkinson, who covered the AIDS pandemic for the Sunday Times. He sees depressing parallels between the hysterical over-reaction to that pandemic and the over-reaction to this one, with the same misallocation of resources.
Here’s an extract:
One of the consequences, as now, was a huge misallocation of money to the detriment of genuine medical need. A 1993 report from the University of Northumbria Business School, to which Stewart contributed, found that for each AIDS death, health authorities were spending an average of £290,000 on HIV prevention and research, compared with £50 for each death from heart disease. Many UK health regions had considerably more AIDS workers than patients.
Whereas in 1985 a Royal College of Nursing report predicted that one million people in Britain would have AIDS in six years “unless the killer disease is checked”, the actual cumulative, year-on-year, total of AIDS cases by 1990 was still below 5,000. Today, AIDS kills fewer Britons than die from falling down stairs. Even those deaths might have been avoided if the true nature of the condition had been recognised.
Stewart’s findings and recommendations also remained unpublished by the WHO. It was not until June 2008, 25 years after the panic over AIDS began, that the organisation finally admitted the threat of a world pandemic among heterosexuals was over, though it continued to maintain that sub-Saharan Africa was being devastated by the disease.
In fact, Africa was and is one of the biggest victims of the illusions around AIDS, as I found when Andrew Neil, then editor of The Sunday Times, sent me there in 1993 to find out what was happening. My reports, showing that scarce resources were being misdirected to an imaginary epidemic created by an unvalidated “HIV” test, got the scientific and medical establishment in the UK into a frenzy but were never refuted.
How can scientists, who we look to with so much respect, get things so wrong? The answer is that they are human beings, just like the rest of us.
One of the key lessons that could have been drawn from the AIDS debacle is that there is no such holy grail as “the data” or “the science” demanding a particular course of action, contrary to the repeated claims by the Prime Minister and his Health Secretary. It’s how the data are interpreted that is important, and in this regard the Government is receiving a very one-sided and out-of-date perspective.
One of the most startling points Hodgkinson makes is that many of the protagonists in the British and American Government’s response to the Covid crisis are the same people – or are linked to the same organisations – that led the worldwide fight against AIDS.
These include Anthony Fauci, the “AIDS Czar”, who as head of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases has presided over an era in which several hundred billion dollars have been spent on AIDS research and treatment, including a completely futile but continuing search for a vaccine.
Another is Sir Roy Anderson, the current Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College, London. He co-authored an influential, 150-page Royal Society study, published in September 1989, analysing the AIDS epidemic and making predictions about future spread. The other main author was Sir David Cox, professor of statistics at Imperial for more than 20 years, now long since retired.
The predictions were wrong, as demonstrated by an 8,000-word analysis first submitted to the society in September 1990 by the late Professor Gordon Stewart, one of its most distinguished members, with a lifetime’s work in public health.
The error, he said, came about because the statistical model used rested on two false assumptions. The first of these was that the essential cause of AIDS was HIV; and the second was that the virus was already spreading heterosexually, beyond the original susceptible groups of homosexual men with multiple sexual partners, and drug addicts, and would cause a global pandemic.
This is a fascinating piece from a journalist who is witnessing the mistakes the authorities are making in response to the current pandemic and has seen it all before.
Worth reading in full.
When Will the Government Treat Us Like Grown-ups?
The BBC continues its infantile campaign against the concept of herd immunity, failing to explain (as Professor Sunetra Gupta does here) that it is a perfectly ordinary scientific term (if clumsy from a PR perspective), the basis of how vaccines protect a population, and is the only realistic endpoint of an epidemic where (as in this case) elimination is unrealistic and unjustifiably costly.
BBC News reports that it has obtained, via a Freedom of Information request, every email sent by Sir Patrick Vallance and Chris Whitty from the start of February to the start of June containing the words “herd immunity”. They appear to be trying to get the pair in trouble for ever having thought (back when they still spoke some sense) that herd immunity was worth talking about.
At the start of the pandemic, the Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, spoke about “herd immunity” – the idea that once enough of a population had been exposed to the virus, they would build up natural immunity to it. [LS Fact Check: Herd immunity according to Oxford Languages is the “resistance to the spread of a contagious disease within a population that results if a sufficiently high proportion of individuals are immune to the disease, especially through vaccination”. It does not require people to be “exposed to the virus”, as the BBC claims, as they could have T-Cell cross-immunity or be vaccinated.]
Sir Patrick and the Government have both insisted this was never official policy. The Government also denies there was any delay in locking down the country, as some critics have suggested.
Emails obtained by the BBC reveal the alarm among the Government’s top scientific advisers at the reaction to Sir Patrick’s words.
In one email from March, Sir Patrick asks for help to “calm down” academics who have expressed anger at his repeated references to herd immunity and the delays in announcing a lockdown.
The emails show “herd immunity” began to appear after Vallance’s media round on March 13th:
“Our aim,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that morning, is to “try and reduce the peak – not suppress it completely, also because most people get a mild illness, to build up some degree of herd immunity whilst protecting the most vulnerable”.
To many, his words appeared an unequivocal endorsement of herd immunity. They also appeared to explain the Government’s reluctance to order the kind of lockdowns and social distancing measures that were already in place in many other countries, despite cases increasing and worrying scenes in hospitals in Italy.
Speaking to Sky News on the same day, Sir Patrick talked about not suppressing the virus completely, to help avoid “a second peak”, and also to “allow enough of us who are going to get mild illness to become immune to this”.
When asked how much of the British population would need to contract the virus for herd immunity to become effective, he calmly replied “probably around 60%”.
With an approximate 1% case fatality rate, the interviewer responded, that would mean “an awful lot of people dying”. [LS Fact Check: the BBC is confusing the case fatality rate with the infection fatality rate.]
At the time, there was no strong evidence that being infected by coronavirus would result in long-lasting immunity.
The following day, a group of more than 500 academics published a joint letter, criticising the lack of social distancing restrictions imposed by the Government, adding that “going for ‘herd immunity’ at this point does not seem a viable option, as this will put the NHS at an even stronger level of stress, risking many more lives than necessary”.
In an email to Sir Mark Walport, the UK’s former Chief Scientific Adviser, discussing the scientists’ letter, Sir Patrick suggests the message in response should be “herd immunity is not the strategy. The strategy is to flatten the curve… and to shield the elderly… As we do this we will see immunity in the community grow”.
Sir Patrick appears clearly rattled by the backlash to his use of the phrase.
Add a sprinkle of Neil Ferguson alarmist modelling on March 16th and that’s how we got into this mess, as Government ministers and their scientific advisers caved to the mob over the following fortnight.
The same stunt was pulled on Anders Tegnell in Sweden, who has also had to deny that herd immunity was ever an aim, despite emails surfacing that suggest otherwise. But of course epidemiologists were discussing herd immunity in March. They would have been professionally negligent not to have been – it’s a fundamental concept in the science.
What this shows is a chronic failure of leadership from our politicians who, rather than explain to the population what “herd immunity” really means and why building it up is the only viable way to protect the vulnerable and return to normal, crumbled at the first sign of discomfort with the idea and switched to a suicidal suppression strategy while waiting for Godot a vaccine. This treats the public like children who can’t cope with grown-up ideas and hard choices. No wonder it laid the foundation for the emergence of the new paternalistic Covid state that takes away our liberty (because we can’t be trusted to behave) to keep us “safe” – though in truth does anything but.
A Very Sensible MP
Conservative MP Richard Drax had a letter in the Telegraph on Monday that reflects the growing scepticism among Conservative MPs.
SIR – A major rethink on how we battle coronavirus is urgently needed. Now, we’re far better informed, so locking us all down and destroying more lives and livelihoods are not the answer.
Even when a vaccine is found, it may not grant total immunity. In the meantime, as with every other disease, we must learn to live with it.
The most vulnerable are more than capable of deciding how to protect themselves, while the young need to get on with their lives and enjoy their youth, which passes all too quickly.
Enough of this hourly analysis, which creates an atmosphere of fear out of all proportion to the threat. Our best weapon against the virus, for now, is common sense, not over-reaction, which is devastating our country.
Richard Drax MP (Con)
London SW1
Another person who thinks people are more than capable of deciding how to protect themselves is Lockdown Sceptics reader Steven Sieff, who runs the Greenband/Redband site. He has had a letter published in the BMJ criticising the elimination strategy and proposing his freedom-respecting coloured wristband system instead.
If the route to elimination and isolation of the vulnerable both cause too much suffering then what next? Practical suggestions have been largely absent amongst the torrent of voices who question the lockdown approach. But some do exist. One such example is the targeted protection advocated by the greenbandredband system. This approach proposes that all adults be given the right to choose whether to class themselves as vulnerable or low risk. No arbitrary lines, just a personal choice based on personal risk assessment. From there very simple rules exist. For those who classify themselves as vulnerable, distancing/protection measures similar to those in place currently would be maintained. The low risk would also follow these rules when interacting with the vulnerable. But where low risk individuals mixed with each other, they would not be bound by distancing rules.
Worth reading the whole letter.
Support for Government Falls to Lowest Levels – For Not Locking Down Hard Enough
Pollster Ipsos MORI finds support for the Government’s handling of the crisis at its lowest levels yet.
Ipsos MORI’s September Political Monitor shows half the public say the Government is handling the coronavirus very or fairly badly (50%, up 10 points from last month) while a third say it is handling it very or fairly well (32%, down 10 points). This is the lowest score seen so far in this series (when it began in March, 49% thought the Government was handling it well and 35% badly). Fieldwork was carried out before Tuesday’s latest announcements of new restrictions.
Evaluation of the Government’s handling of the crisis is largely split along party lines with 60% of Conservative supporters saying they think the Government is handling it well, compared with just 15% of Labour supporters (of whom 72% are critical).
The poll was done before the announcements of the latest restrictions on Tuesday. But will they help? Polling by ComRes suggests not – not, sadly, because the public are crying out for freedom, but because they want more restrictions.
Of the measures announced on Tuesday by the Prime Minister to the House of Commons and, separately, in a broadcast to the nation at 8pm, all retail and hospitality workers, as well as everyone in taxis wearing mandatory face coverings had the highest level of net public support (73%), followed closely by people working from home (72%). Reducing the number of guests at a wedding from 30 to 15 had the lowest overall public net support (46%), but even this had more support than opposition by a ratio of more than 4:1.
The public also tended to feel that each of these measures would be effective in curbing the transmission of COVID-19. Around three quarters of English adults believe that making those who can work from home do so (76%), and requiring all retail and hospitality workers to wear a face covering (75%) would be an effective way to stop the transmission of the virus, while seven in ten say the same of halting the resumption of audiences at live sporting events (70%). However, just over half say that the new 10pm pub and restaurant curfew would be an effective way of stopping the spread of the virus (53%), although this is twice as many than those who think it would be an ineffective method (27%).
Despite this, nearly two in three English adults say that the new measures from the Government are not strict enough (65%) and a similar proportion (64%) would support a two-week “circuit-breaker” lockdown, including a ‘Stay at Home’ message, compared to just 17% who oppose.
Such depressing polling only shows how deeply the propaganda has penetrated, and why good leadership at a time of crisis is so important.
“She really enjoyed each day for me to brush her hair, a simple pleasure now denied.”
Stefan Emory has written a heartrending account in Conservative Woman of the impact of lockdown on his wife Ann, who was admitted to a care home last year after 35 years together.
My partner has late stage Alzheimer’s and is completely dependent for all aspects of her care and wellbeing. At her stage, there is very little comfort, dignity and pleasure left in her life, but she really enjoyed each day for me to brush her hair, which I would also do to calm her down when distressed or agitated – a very simple pleasure now denied to us both.
My biggest fear now is that she may reach the very end stage and that I will not be free to be there to hold her hand on her way out.
Although the Government issued (extremely Sir Humphrey-esque) care home visiting guidance in July, it placed all the responsibility on care homes, who are unwilling to take that responsibility and have done no more than to allow very limited garden visits, which are most dissatisfying for both the resident and visitor.
I am aware that some organisations have been lobbying the Government for more practical guidance, but they seem to be using the softly-softly approach, whereas it is now abundantly clear that they need to engage in a very vocal public media campaign.
From my observations, it is only those of us who have cared directly for a loved one with dementia who really understand the devastating impact on the person affected.
So many health and care professionals do not really seem to understand, or only superficially. When the dementia becomes severe, the only unfailing voice for the sufferer is the voice of the family member, who by their relationship knows the sufferer better than any health or care professional.
That is why the visitor lockdown is so devastating – the impact is the silencing of the only voice that truly understands the sufferer and unceasingly has their best interests at heart.
He worries that with the ban on daily visiting and the lack of inspections, “all the right conditions are in place for some absolutely horrific cases of neglect and abuse behind closed doors”.
Worth reading in full.
And, remember, if you know of any such cases of neglect, please contact the investigative journalist David Rose on david@davidroseuk.com.
Tegnell Turning?
Some worrying news from Sweden. A small rise in cases in Stockholm in the last few days appears to be causing chief epidemiologist Dr Anders Tegnell to shift to embracing lockdowns and masks as tools for handling the virus. The Telegraph has more:
Sweden’s state epidemiologist has said that he is now willing to recommend lockdown measures such as school closures, and strict limits to the size of gatherings – so long as they are only imposed locally and for three weeks at a time.
The Public Health Agency of Sweden’s new approach to local restrictions, floated first at a press conference on Tuesday, marks its biggest strategic shift since it launched its no-lockdown strategy in March.
“We are thinking of fairly short restrictions, to break the spread of infection requires perhaps two to three weeks at most,” Anders Tegnell told the Dagens Nyheter newspaper in an interview published on Wednesday afternoon.
“We are still developing the concept, so to say, but something like that.” …
“The restrictions could be extremely local. It could be about a single workplace or city district: wherever you see a spread and think that there are restrictions that might stop it,” Dr Tegnell told the newspaper.
The agency has so far been sceptical of issuing a general recommendation for face masks to be worn in public, but, according to Dr Tegnell, it now sees a role for them in helping control local outbreaks.
Sad to see a sceptic hero shifting to endorse masks and lockdowns, but it is to be hoped they remain only as short-term and local measures. The idea seems to be to try to keep on top of local outbreaks and minimise the risk of the virus spreading to the vulnerable. But since SARS-CoV-2 is now endemic, and presumably seasonal, it leaves the question of how long these brutal threats of lockdown will continue to be held over the Swedish population as tools to combat infection, and why they are for COVID-19 and not other seasonal viruses. I hope the great man has thought this one through.
How Many People With “Flu-Like” Illnesses Are Being Mislabelled as Covid?
Today Lockdown Sceptics is publishing a new paper by Consultant Pathologist Dr Clare Craig looking at how to tell the difference between a real Covid outbreak and one resulting from another seasonal respiratory virus and false positives. Here’s an excerpt:
Why are we seeing alleged excess Covid-like cases in people in their 20s? The narrative is the same across Europe: that a new surge in Covid cases is being driven by young adults. This is despite the fact that during the spring epidemic, symptomatic outbreaks were focused on nursing homes and hospitals. Large numbers of symptomatic young people were not observed in the spring. Why are they being seen now? Why would the impact of the virus at a population level be so different now to what it was in the spring?
Real Covid cases lead, after a time, to rising antibody levels. The percentage of 20-29 year olds with antibodies to Covid has not risen between June and 6th September. It has actually fallen, as it has for the rest of the population. There is a serious inconsistency with the widely accepted hypothesis that the recent surge of flu-like illness must be Covid and the steady continued drop in Covid antibody levels throughout the population. The latter is scientifically provable, the former remains only a hypothesis.
Epidemics spread fast and cluster geographically. Where recent epidemic outbreaks of actual Covid have been mapped, such as in Florida and Marseille, the spread from young adults to other age groups happened within a week and within two weeks Covid was detected in every age group. Given that the time from diagnosis to death is approximately 20 days then a rise in deaths was seen approximately 27 days after new cases in young adults.
The UK data demonstrates that the rise in alleged-Covid cases in young people from the beginning of August did not reach other age groups for a full month. Also, the data since mid Sept has not shown the expected consequent increase in deaths in the UK from the August surge. It seems the outcomes from the UK surge in flu-like illnesses in August does not appear to match that seen in recent genuine Covid outbreaks. This is puzzling, and must make us more cautious.
Some might argue that vulnerable groups have been successfully shielded in the UK and this could explain the lack of deaths now in the UK. Are we better at shielding than Florida and Marseille. Have we successfully hermetically sealed 15-25 year olds from vulnerable groups? It is not obvious that we have shielded any more successfully than other countries. If we have not shielded more successfully, then why has our death rate not increase. like other countries? Death rates should have already increased if this outbreak is Covid rather than other flu-like viruses.
The percentage of young people testing positive for Covid remains low, at a few percent of those tested. Although the false positive rate for Covid testing has not been definitively established, the rate we are observing in the young in the UK is low enough that we cannot exclude the possibility that they are almost all Covid false positives. To differentiate real Covid from false positives requires careful thought and more thorough assessment and testing of those cases. It is essential that loss of smell and Chest CT confirmation is used to confirm where there are genuine outbreaks.
Well worth reading in full.
Facebook Flags Belgian Doctors’ Letter as “False Information”
Barrister and Lockdown Sceptics reader Sarah Ewart got in touch to tell us that when she shared on Facebook the letter from the Belgian doctors questioning the wisdom of lockdowns that LS featured on Sunday the social media company flagged it as false information.
Sarah says:
This has really disturbed me. Assuming the letter is what it purports to be, it represents the view of hundreds of Belgian professionals. I had not realised that free speech and debate was being censored to this degree. I am in genuine despair over what is happening and desperate to do what I can to restore our country to one of freedom, democracy and open debate.
Speechless Raab Skewered by JHB
Julia Hartley-Brewer left Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab momentarily speechless on her talkRADIO show yesterday as she informed him of the number of healthy under-60s who had died with COVID-19 since February. Here’s what one Lockdown Sceptics reader had to say:
The interview of Dominic Raab by Julia Hartley-Brewer this morning was simply stunning. JHB asked Raab how many healthy under-60s have died of Covid since February. Raab has literally no clue, was unable to even give a ballpark figure. When JHB told him it was 307 Raab was stunned. It took him a couple of seconds to compose himself and start muttering a reply.
A very senior member of the Government seems to be completely unaware of exactly how innocuous Covid is to the majority of the population. Beyond that, it’s nothing short of outrageous that a senior Cabinet member should have no grasp whatsoever of the basic numbers of the single biggest issue that has faced this country for decades. The Government is clearly making decisions based on narratives and ideas presented to them without scrutinising them at even the most basic level.
Can you imagine anyone running a serious business in this way – not having a clue for example how many clients one has or how much money the business turns over, more or less?
There is no conspiracy here, just colossal incompetence and negligence.
Watch it here.
Round-Up
- “We’ve avoided a national lockdown, now let’s transform our entire strategy” – Professor Karol Sikora spies an opportunity in the Government’s lighter-than-anticipated restrictions to press for a complete U-turn. Is there a chance Boris might start listening to sceptical scientists – he is reported to have solicited their views at the weekend – or is that just wishful thinking?
- “The three taboos at the heart of Johnson’s coronavirus fiasco” – Allister Heath in the Telegraph gets to the heart of the matter. Also Annabel Denham here
- “Graham Brady’s Covid rebellion has the numbers to succeed” – The Critic relays some encouraging news, giving hope that MPs might start to do their jobs and hold the Government to account over its extraordinary clampdown on basic liberties
- “No Second Lockdown Without A Full Parliamentary Debate” – Sign the petition here
- “Could we see Covid anti-virals before a vaccine?” – Ross Clark in the Spectator on a potential breakthrough in treating COVID-19
- “Seven deadly sins of omission by the Two Doomsters” – Handy rundown from Lockdown Sceptics reader Rowina Seidler in Conservative Woman of all the howlers in Monday’s now infamous presentation by Witless and Unbalanced
- “Plastic face shields almost completely ineffective at containing coronavirus, finds Japanese supercomputer” – Add this to the list of things we knew now confirmed. Will it make any difference to their use? Of course not
- “After months of over-promising and under-delivering, Number 10 has finally changed tack” – Has optimism finally deserted BoJo?
- “‘Challenge trials’ set to infect volunteers with coronavirus to help speed up creation of a vaccine” – Suspension of ethical constraints in the quest for the silver bullet
- “Why was our response to COVID-19 so unbelievably deranged?” – Lockdown Sceptics reader Russell Lewin takes an astute look at some of the cultural and psychological preconditions for the present insanity
- “Is evidence masks don’t work being purged from the internet?” – OffGuardian reports on the curious disappearance of at least two studies
- “Our political police won’t allow protests they disagree with” – Paddy Hannam in spiked on the police’s gaping disparity in treatment of woke and lockdown protestors
- “Melbourne cops pounce on pregnant woman and pensioners for sitting on bench” – Kim-Jong Dan’s Storm Troopers are at it again
- “Revealed: Sir Patrick Vallance has £600,000 shareholding in firm contracted to develop vaccines” – Shshshsh. Don’t tell the conspiracy theorists
- “The revenge of the experts” – Tim Black in spiked spies the malign influence of the morose technocrats behind the illiberal shift in our politics
- “Wage subsidy scheme to replace furlough” – The socialist slide continues. When will the Tories will notice? Or care?
Theme Tunes Suggested by Readers
One for Boris: “He’d Send In The Army” by Gang Of Four. And two by the Black Angels in honour of his henchmen, Witless and Unbalanced: “Science Killer” and “Manipulation“.
Love in the Time of Covid
We have created some Lockdown Sceptics Forums, including a dating forum called “Love in a Covid Climate” that has attracted a bit of attention. We have a team of moderators in place to remove spam and deal with the trolls, but sometimes it takes a little while so please bear with us. You have to register to use the Forums, but that should just be a one-time thing. Any problems, email the Lockdown Sceptics webmaster Ian Rons here.
Woke Gobbledegook
We’ve decided to create a permanent slot down here for woke gobbledegook. The Government on Monday announced they were dropping plans for gender self-identification – a victory for women and common sense. But don’t think that means the Government is abandoning its support for the trans agenda. Caroline ffiske in Conservative Woman yesterday exposed how the the Government Equalities Office (GEO) has funded a number of the resources that will now make their way into schools through compulsory Relationships and Sex Education – resources that misrepresent the law and gaslight children about biological sex and their rights to bodily privacy and dignity. Is it any wonder, she asks, that it was reported last week that at one Kent school 15 pupils, most of them girls, are identifying as genders different from their birth sex?
In February 2019, the GEO advertised the funding it would be making available to various LGBT groups.
Its announcement explained that a group of organisations would split £1million “to extend work that protects children from homophobic, biphobic and transphobic bullying”. According to the press release, an existing initiative “delivered by Barnardo’s and Stonewall” had already supported “1,200 schools in England”.
The PSHE (Personal, Social, Health and Economic) Association was contracted by the GEO to assess everything produced through the project funding against a “shared standards framework” and provides links to all the resources on its website. What is the word for the opposite of a treasure trove?
An organisation called Consortium provides a dangerous and irresponsible factsheet that tells us that puberty blockers are a fully reversible medication.
Yet the NHS has stated that it’s “not known whether hormone blockers affect the development of the teenage brain or children’s bones” and that “side-effects may also include hot flushes, fatigue and mood alterations”.
Another Consortium factsheet tell us: “When delivering sex education, it is important to use inclusive language. For example, avoid saying ‘men’s/boy’s penises’ and just say ‘penis’,’ effectively teaching kids that biological sex does not exist. It’s cruel, it’s bullying; kids can see that biological sex exists.
An advised “important topic for discussion” is the fact that “anal sex is not exclusively practised by men who have sex with men, many heterosexual couples enjoy anal sex”. Why is it important? For schoolkids?
Another factsheet says that within a school “a new pupil who has already transitioned need not disclose“. What this means is that a boy can use the girls’ toilets and facilities without the girls even being told. Read that again. The girls’ rights to privacy, even to information – dismissed.
With respect to toilets, the same factsheet says: “If boys’ and girls’ toilets are separate, the school must ensure that a pupil who transitions may use the facilities that match their new gender presentation and their wishes.” What about girls who don’t want a boy in their toilets? This advice misrepresents the law. Girls have a right to single-sex toilets.
Surgery is casually introduced. “Surgical interventions to modify the sex characteristics and bring them more in line with the gender identity are not undertaken under 17 years old. Genital surgery may be described as ‘lower or bottom surgery’; breast/chest surgery may be described as ‘top’ surgery.”
Just like that… so casual.
The risks surrounding such deeply invasive procedures are, of course, not mentioned. The lifetime of medication, potential sterility, pain, regret. No? Kids too sensitive?
Worth reading in full.
Bonus Gobbledegook: Titania McGrath tweeted a picture from Metro, which was too good not to share.
“Mask Exempt” Lanyards
We’ve created a one-stop shop down here for people who want to buy (or make) a “Mask Exempt” lanyard/card. You can print out and laminate a fairly standard one for free here and it has the advantage of not explicitly claiming you have a disability. But if you have no qualms about that (or you are disabled), you can buy a lanyard from Amazon saying you do have a disability/medical exemption here (takes a while to arrive). The Government has instructions on how to download an official “Mask Exempt” notice to put on your phone here. You can get a “Hidden Disability” tag from ebay here and an “exempt” card with lanyard for just £1.99 from Etsy here. And, finally, if you feel obliged to wear a mask but want to signal your disapproval of having to do so, you can get a “sexy world” mask with the Swedish flag on it here.
Don’t forget to sign the petition on the UK Government’s petitions website calling for an end to mandatory face nappies in shops here.
A reader has started a website that contains some useful guidance about how you can claim legal exemption.
And here’s a round-up of the scientific evidence on the effectiveness of mask (threadbare at best).
Stop Press: An eagle-eyed Twitter user spotted a letter from two surgeons, one of them a former president of the Royal College of Surgeons and the other a former council member, to the Telegraph back in August in which they say they ceased to use masks in their practices decades ago “after a series of controlled trials showed that using them either had no effect on, or sometimes actually increased the risk of post-operative infection”.
Ofcom Judicial Review Update
The Free Speech Union has just updated the GoFundMe it launched to cover its legal costs in the Judicial Review it is bringing against Ofcom with respect to the “coronavirus guidance” the regulator published on March 23rd, the same day the full lockdown was imposed. As I’ve written about before, this “guidance” has contributed to the suppression of dissenting views about Covid in the mainstream media, particularly the BBC.
When, on April 20th, Ofcom slapped down Eamonn Holmes, an ITV presenter, for arguing in favour of always maintaining an open mind with respect to different theories about the coronavirus crisis and the Government’s response to it, the FSU believed this was an action of considerable consequence for free speech in the media.
The FSU decided it ought to take action. If a small public interest group dedicated to free speech stood for anything, it should stand for upholding the rights of broadcasters and journalists to discuss matters of considerable public interest without fear of censure by a state regulator. Given that it is likely that Ofcom will become the regulator of the internet in due course, we considered it vitally important that Ofcom should pay proper attention to Article 10 of the Human Rights Act that states that we all have the right to free expression. Ofcom should encourage – rather than discourage – open-mindedness, open debate and tolerance for dissenting views. Ofcom was establishing a worryingly bad precedent.
We made a complaint to Ofcom in the hope that it would realise the error of its ways if we brought the conflict between what it had done and its duties under the Human Rights Act to its attention. However, when Ofcom refused to budge on the issue, the FSU decided to initiate litigation to make the case for open-mindedness and free inquiry.
A judge will shortly be deciding whether to allow us to proceed with a Judicial Review of Ofcom’s censorious behaviour. We think we have a strong case but litigation is never certain so we have asked the judge for a “Protective Costs Order” which would place a limit on the liability faced by the FSU should we lose the case. Given that Ofcom claim already to have spent over £16,000 just responding to our application for a court hearing, the amount at risk could be considerable. The bigger the size of this fund the more likely that the action will go ahead and we will have the opportunity to strike a major blow in favour of free speech and the right to challenge the Government’s narrative.
If things go our way and we defeat Ofcom in court, the money in this fund will be held over and used to support other litigation to protect free speech.
Thanks again for all your support, which has already helped us a great deal. If we can ask just one more thing, it’s that you share this GoFundMe on social media. The more the word gets out, the better our chances of being able to fight these and similar battles in future.
Please donate to the Free Speech Union’s “Fighting Fund” GoFundMe here so we can take Ofcom to the High Court and share the link with others.
This is a vitally important case for free speech.
Samaritans
If you are struggling to cope, please call Samaritans for free on 116 123 (UK and ROI), email jo@samaritans.org or visit the Samaritans website to find details of your nearest branch. Samaritans is available round the clock, every single day of the year, providing a safe place for anyone struggling to cope, whoever they are, however they feel, whatever life has done to them.
Shameless Begging Bit
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And Finally…
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Thank you Toby. Brilliant as ever. Lets keep the momentum going. Off for a drive + longer walk now.
Toby, you’ve done it again. Accuse the FT and others of poor quality journalism then base your point on a single letter in the Lancet about one set of experiences. The letter might be right. However, there is not one ventilator – as you well know – so maybe the letter writer did see failure because it was the wrong type of ventilator or used by people with poor skills. I don’t know & neither do you. But you still chose to use this knock others and spread uncertainty.
I struggle to believe that highly trained practioners globally are asking for a piece of equipment that in fact kills people. Seems a tad unlikely. I can accept that the media has bigged them up as some sort of magic device. Some use them as a stick to beat Hancock with and don’t care about the therapeutics.
BK, there are plenty of other reports of these issues with ventilators, for example:
https://time.com/5820556/ventilators-covid-19/
Also:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ventilators-covid-overuse-1.5534097
Yes. Indeed I am not denying that. People die from Covid. There isn’t a cure or a good set of treatments. That includes ventilators.
Most die WITH Covid not FROM. Government should publish full data of deaths with primary cause. Covid has to be included on death certificates as they made it a notifiable disease.
For most of them COVID-19 is what kileld them by being the straw on the camel’s back, but it in 95% of cases wouldn’t have been able to kill if they hadn’t already been weakened by underlying conditions of various types. This is a nasty disease, it does need to be fought, but not by shutting down our country, tearing up our civil liberties and destroying the futue of local buinesses. Most, not all but most, coronavirus deaths are people who wouldn’t have lasted much longer anyway. But even with the fact that some vicitims were healthy to begin with, this virus isn’t so dangerous as to necessitate shutting down all of life.
“Most, not all but most, coronavirus deaths are people who wouldn’t have lasted much longer anyway” Oh really and what’s your data set for this sweeping statement. People like our PM?
People died “with” HIV not from HIV directly. Shall we do some more semantic dancing?
Italian statistics indicate the mean age of cvd19 deaths was 80 and 99% had one or more significant illness . https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says
BoneyKnee: Boris is ONE datapoint, I didn’t say nobody who is young(ish) and (possibly) in good health would get a bad case. And besides, he survived, there is a pretty high chance that the status of being the PM meant he was given treatment quality far beyond necessary for the state of condition he may have been in. The stats are showing that in the UK 95% of serious cases have underlying conditions, I work by stats not emotional anecdotes, that way I don’t have to cower in fear at every possible risk. I made no comments about HIV, it is a much nastier disease than COVID-19.
This opinion piece in the New York Times goes into a bit more detail on the subject, interesting reference to the treatment Boris received as well:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html?auth=login-google
Interesting article, that silent hypoxia suggests that those who die from the coronavirus might slip away quite painlessly, were it not for intubation and invasive ventilation which only seems to save about 10% of cases anyway. Might see about getting a pulse-oximeter for occasional checking, if they are cheap, and a do-not-resuscitate card for if my oxygen content gets low enough that intubation would be considered. Wonder what effect it could have if most households had a pulse-oximeter? earlier diagnosis of those at risk? shorter less intensive stays in hospital? less beds take up for time? less risk of hospital overload? no arguments left for lockdown-lovers to stand on? More research is need on this, some proepr stats to see if this diagnsotic could really achieve all those hopes.
The oxygen destauration curve is one of those pesky S shaped curves. Certainly if you were in good health and didnt have COPD ( emphysema ) you would probably run at 96-98 % . If it was going down to 93- 94 % I would be ringing 999 .
if you have COPD then alarming desaturations are individual specific.
You can buy a sats probe through Amazon.
I do hope there are some studies of whether mass use of oxygen stauration probes could help ease the pressure on hospitals. Anyone aware of such? Could be a hugely helpful method to reduce the societal chaos that the virus is causing.
This is very much going to be a matter of seeing if they can help en-masse for reducing pressure on hospitals. Individuals getting pulse oximeters is only going to make supply harder where they are needed in hospitals. This sort of measure is only of use if combined with a medical infrastructrue set up to handle all the queries about dodgy readings and to recognise and quickly handle suspect cases. Saving individuals is not the main issue, the issue is getting to as many of the later-to-be-severe cases ASAP so they can be treated mroe quickly and use up less hospital resources.
For clarity, it is a letter that gives six medical study references. The author also links to a youtube piece by a New York doctor describing first hand experience of problems caused by ventilators in this context.
I suggest you scour the Internet, there are plenty of articles relating to this, I find Google quite effective for assistance with finding them.
Perhaps an aside, but one aspect people seem to totally forget is the effect on developing nations. The BBC report that UN is warning the pandemic could cause a famine of “Biblical proportion”s is neatly buried ( https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52373888 )
This would result in 265MILLION people starving (that’s even more than Neil Ferguson predicted for bird flu!).
We should also remember the literal millions of garment workers (and other manufacturers) in the third world who will be let off work with the global slump, or work places closed with the lockdown. These are people often earning under $5day, no doubt their governments will not be supporting them in anyway. How many deaths will result there?
Needless to say the deaths as a result of this could well obliterate the numbers from the virus.
Indeed, this is happening already. Radio 4 did cover problems in a recent segment. The flower growers are already in deep trouble.
see my notes on Singapore. They have good reporting and covid19 is now rageing in the Bengali and Indian barracks . Yet so far no deaths. Maybe because covid 19 is not such a serious illness for the younger populations like most of the thrid world.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Singapore
Yep, these countries with very young populations will suffer minimally, with 22% of the population over 65 in Italy, compared to 7% in India. Dare I also say it that the relative lack of healthcare in India also means a far lower % of patients living with complex morbidities
Readers might also be interested in my blog post looking at whether the latest ONS numbers show that the lockdown is killing people:
https://hectordrummond.com/2020/04/22/do-the-ons-numbers-show-that-the-lockdown-is-killing-people/
Re: the peak and Phil Nuttridge/Pr Ben Israel analysis, while peak might take the same amount of the days to be reached regardless of measures (because people are scared and doing distancing without being forced, CF Sweden movement analysis) and geos, the peak and penetrance of the virus DOES vary. A peak with 100,000 new cases or 10,000 new cases (even if it’s always after X days) would lead to very different outcomes.
On the ventilator, better safe than sorry. We didn’t prepare in the eventuality that they were needed or will be needed with a potential second wave (this is Trump’s comment yesterday during the task force meeting and why he didn’t cancel the ventilator orders although they aren’t used today). Outcomes also really vary: in France, more than half of people in ICU survive (not all are under a ventilator).
Give him the Medicine and the Nobel Peace Prize as well!
Oh and as PS. For all those talking about immunity as the way out, that’s not yet proven. I “believe” in immunity because I can’t contemplate not having it there. It seems that it is there given the case for second occurence is unclear. But, again we don’t know. So it’s great for some economist to live in a world where your people all get it voluntarily next week to become immune – we don’t even know that that is the case.
By the way, I am all in favour of the discussion of exit strategies. They need to be thought through now and discussed. I disagree with Hancock who I think won’t discuss them because they came back to testing and PPE, hospital capacity all of which he has cocked up and aren’t ready. This is the real problem.
Hi BK – it’s hard to prove during an epidemic. I’m hopeful for three reasons: a) we do see some antibody responses in some people suggests that some people gain immunity. b) we gain immunity (even if short term) from other coronaviruses and c) we’d surely have more evidence of reinfections if it were common, especially as we’ve locked everyone away with their coronavirus positive family members.
It’s also worth noting is 75% or greater shareholding in the Porton Down lab working on a vaccine.
“It’s also worth noting [h]is 75% or greater shareholding in the Porton Down lab working on a vaccine.”
Errr… Porton Biopharma Limited is (presumably 100%) owned by the UK Government. Matt Hancock doesn’t have a personal shareholding!
https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/09331560/persons-with-significant-control
Also I haven’t seen any evidence that Porton Down is involved in any of the vaccine trials to date, although they have certainly been heavily involved in testing (and testing of tests) and probably have the only true picture of serology in the UK to date.
Consider then that the H1N1 influenza strain has been around for 11 years, and that we have a vaccine for it. Yes, it is comparable, it is a virus, and we even believe that it has a lower transmissible rate than the coronavirus. But year after year the H1N1 strain is still a factor during influenza season. So we have to hope that immunity is the way out, because even with a vaccine this new coronavirus will be visiting with us for years to come. And the only way to get immunity is to get it and survive. We are just prolonging the time it takes to achieve immunity in hopes a vaccine will become available to assist in immunity, and to ensure we can develop treatments for something that cannot be cured.
And now public health, politicians, and the media are acting like we can avoid all of this just by destroying the economies of the world by hiding under our beds. You can’t stop death, you can only put it off for a little while.
Two interesting things I have picked up on today.
1. Autopsy post mortems indicate that actually the first confirmed covid19 death in California was a month earlier than thought up until now, ie February 6 th . It was noted that the flu season was bad in California this year. This might explain why in April there has been no typical epidemic in California unlike New York
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-21/autopsies-reveal-first-confirmed-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-occurred-in-bay-area-in-early-february
2. We have now a good model for how Coronavirus has differing effects in first and third world populations, with respect to CFR. In Singapore we have a first world population having an appropriate lifestyle supported by tens of thousands of imported labourers brought in from the third world. The latter mainly come from Bangladesh, India and the Philippines.
Covid19 is now rampant among the labourers often living in crowded dormitories yet so far no deaths The very few deaths in Singapore are coming from the frail elderly Chinese .
Conclusion ; Why is India and sub safaran Africa imposing lockdowns ??
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Singapore
I made the recommendation for the use of palliative care in another piece: ‘How should we value the lives…’.
It must be the most appropriate use of resources for the very elderly, frail and debilitated residents of nursing homes ; it can be directed towards the relief of distress, the provision of safety and as much comfort as is achievable in a familiar setting.
There is no sense in moving those who are approaching life’s end into a high tech, crowded hospital environment, with the aim of prolonging existence by means of heroic interventions, despite the increasingly shrill demands of some media busybodies.
The care assistants who provide these services should have their invaluable contributions suitably rewarded in better working conditions: secure contracts and decent wages.
As to the house arrest/ heavy manners which now control our lives, should we perhaps consider dusting off Magna Carta for future reference?
It now seems ever more likely that Covid is indeed replicating its pattern of spread, infection, and recovery across the world, regardless of government policies, local conditions and cultural differences.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Ventilators-aren-t-a-panacea-for-a-pandemic-like-coronavirus
Here is an excellent article by Dr Matt Strauss on ventilator usage and suitability of same.
Finally, it seems that our increasingly tiresome MSM are collectively displaying symptoms of Covid Derangement Disorder, with the likes of Messrs Peston and Morgan most severely affected.
To close, ‘walkies!’ has now become equally tempting and enticing for humans and canines: the thrills derived from a sneaky second perambulation in the open air.
Who’d have thought that the humdrum pedestrian life could become so exciting?
To say this lockdown’s consequences are depressing doesn’t go far enough. Today’s BBC headlines include famines of “biblical proportions” and how most of the vulnerable children in the UK are falling through the cracks right now.
Sturgeon has said that she’ll do what she thinks best “in her judgement” for Scotland, regardless of when and how the rest of the UK eases the lockdown. Never let a good crisis go to waste for furthering your political stranglehold on 5 million Scots.
How right you are: many of us up here are fed up with the SNP’s spin on current events.
Surely unity is called for, so we can arrange a workable way out of the lockdown for the entire UK.
The ventilator is interesting but confounding by indication is massive here. A bit like saying that people who have chemotherapy post cancer surgery die more frequently than those that don’t; ergo chemotherapy bad.
Incidentally the letter was published in Lancet Respiratory Medicine, not the Lancet – they are different journals.
The real scandal here, is why this brilliant journalism is not being published in the mainstream media. Do you think Joe Public would be so enthusiastic about staying in their homes if this information was published in all the tabloids, BBC News (aka Biased Broadcasting Corporation) etc?
When the so-called “cure” kills more people than the virus itself, how is this “saving lives” and “protecting our NHS”? It is an absolute farce!
Very interesting discussion between medical staff can be found here https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3886452-The-hospital-I-work-in-is-so-quiet
This is so interesting- is there any way that these comments can make their way to the press or even the Government? We should not be still locked up.
Whereas Frances Hoar, above, may argue that some of the lockdown restrictions may be unlawful, I would hesitate to follow the path of Gina Miller, Jolyon Maugham et al, by challenging them through the courts, a course that most of us would execrate under other circumstances. If pursued by the constabulary, it would be nice to quote this article
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/17/met-police-fire-failure-enforce-lockdown-rules-clap-carers-bridge/
by way of justification; possibly risky though, as they may be vindictive, individually and collectively. Better maybe to quietly ignore the dafter strictures, but avoid antagonising the vopos.
Latest numbers now in from Sweden:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
The graph is “Intensivvårdade fall/dag” (intensive care cases / day) is probably most interesting because it’s a binary metric and there is presumably less lag than “Avlidna/dag” (deaths / day). Also I think it includes all deaths.
I will let you draw your own conclusions.
https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
Here are the latest figures from the Kings College covid tracker for those who might not have seen them
This website is outstanding – please please please keep going. It’s saving my sanity.
Here for reference is another very good reference source by a Swiss doctor:
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
“Ever get the feeling you’ve been cheated?” J Rotten, 14th January 1978, Winterland SF
“Yes, indeedy ” L Belle, 22nd April 2020, Poole Dorset
ALDUOUS HUXLEY:
“THERE will be in the next generation or so a pharmacological method of making people love their servitude and producing dictatorship without tears so to speak, producing a kind of painless concentration camp for entire societies so that people will in fact have their liberties taken away from them, but will rather enjoy it, because they will be distracted from any desire to rebel by propaganda, or brainwashing, or brainwashing enhanced by pharmacological methods. And this seems to be the final revolution.”
This website is my only hope right now. All else is screaming into the void. I also hate how politicized this has become. I am a social liberal and I despise Trump and I think the lockdown (especially continued as it looks like it will be into JUNE) is the worst decision ever. It will cost hundreds of millions of lives – as someone else mentions, the food crisis to come is staggering. But yet woke New Yorkers and Londoners prance around in masks and feel very virtuous for staying home. It makes me realize that Trump will be reelected in November because of the backlash – people want their liberty. The death rate will be right in line with seasonal flu. Stop the madness!!!!!
Love the ranting New Yorker!
The assumption that getting the Covid 19 virus will leave people resistant is false. Covid 19 is a derivative of SARS Covid 2 virus seen inn2003/4
You may wish to investigate this:
Extracts from a “Nature” article – 2003”
“If SARS does return at a later date, its epidemiology could be different”
“Another crucial question is how long immunity to SARS persists. If this is as short as a few months, and SARS bounces back with the next Northern Hemisphere winter, even those previously exposed to the virus may be just as vulnerable as they were the first time around. “It’s quite possible that we haven’t seen SARS at its full force,” warns Donald Burke, an international health expert at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland”
https://www.nature.com/articles/424121a
“Herd Immunity” was and remains a stupid strategy – who promoted it?
On Sunday a virology Professor was interviewed on Andrew Marr. She very clearly stated that recovered victims of Covid 19 do not have long term immunity and the only way to achieve this is through vaccination. Long term resistant antibodies are only formed in 2-4% of the population. For herd immunity this needs to be around 80%.
This means the decision to adopt a “herd immunity” strategy was founded on spurious and inaccurate science. It was assumed immunity would be delivered to those surviving the virus. But Covid 19 doesn’t behave like the influenza virus. Does this mean the scientific advisors didn’t check? Covid 19 is based on SARS Covid 2 virus and it is well known long term immunity is not developed to this virus.
The decision to adopt a “herd immunity” strategy is probably responsible for the dithering and slow lockdown response to the virus at the beginning and is almost without doubt now responsible for the huge number of deaths being seen.
So who advised the government to adopt a “herd immunity” strategy to a deadly virus when no long term immunity is achieved from this strategy?
Best regards
Dr Jeff Molyneux
Sweden seems to be doing fine. Not a “deadly” virus otherwise why would it be officially downgraded?
So why are antibodies being found in up to 22% of the population (New York) 15% (Germany)?
Can you link a paper for your assertion that very few people are immune? Why would a vaccine work if immunity isn’t being generated? Is this common in vaccines?
Perhaps the idea was that if herd immunity doesn’t work, we are doomed as a society, anyway. We may as well just live life to the full for as long as we can rather than put up with this sh*tshow. (Sorry I have no ‘data’ on this.)
The ‘scientists’ are in a frenzy such as we have never seen. Never before have they had so much power, so many people actually taking notice of their ‘research’. I fear we are finished because we have put pygmies in charge.
Is there a name for the fallacy where in lieu of an argument, something is presented as new and uniquely shocking, but in the unlikely event that someone investigates it it turns out not to be unique at all?
Many people resort to pointing to images from Italian hospitals as if it ends the argument about whether the virus is more dangerous than flu. Or they give details of the lung damage that Covid-19 produces. Or they link to news articles about young, healthy people apparently being struck down.
But in every case, if we look at a bad flu year, we find the same things happening, the difference being that no one worries about flu.
It’s not that the people perpetrating this deception are necessarily doing it deliberately. Their ignorance is quite sincere.