Day: 20 September 2020

Government policy is not based on science This research was compiled by a financial researcher and fund manager who wishes to remain anonymous. There are a few main reasons to be optimistic we should end lockdowns and get back to normal.  We know who this coronavirus affects. The median age of death in almost all countries is over 80 with multiple existing conditions. We are failing to protect old people and are locking up the young and imposing social distancing when they have no risk of death. We can protect the vulnerable more intelligently.Most people have immunity due to cross reactivity and cross immunization. The human immune system is not completely helpless against this virus. Herd immunity levels are much lower than people think and the virus appears to follow a Gompertz curve, which correctly anticipates the virus fizzling out.In most countries, Covid deaths were 40-100% higher than a bad flu year. The virus is bad but it is not the Spanish Flu and is most like the Hong Kong flu of 1968 and the Asian flu of 1957.  They were bad, but we never shut the entire world down for those. Flus are deadly, the world is dangerous, and we will all eventually die. But we won’t all die form Covid.    Here is the complete collection of research and links categorized ...

Graphical Illustrations of the Effects of False Positive Results from Covid19 RT-PCR (Swab) Tests at Low Measured Prevalence There’s no doubt Covid-19 “cases” are presently increasing throughout the UK. How much of this is due to increasing test results, possible contamination during tests or in the test labs, and perhaps “cold” positives arising from fragments of inactive virus?Professor Carl Heneghan of The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford has highlighted the importance of both “false” and “cold” positive results on the reliability of RTPCR test results at low disease prevalence.I won’t go into details of the PCR tests and their accuracy, which can be found elsewhere. However, I’ll first briefly mention the test sensitivity and specificity. The test sensitivity measures how accurately truly positive cases are identified. In cases where disease prevalence is low in the population, say less than 0.5%, test sensitivity variations between say 80% and 90% are not important. The test specificity measures how accurately truly negative cases are identified. The false positive rate (FPR) is approximately 100% minus the test specificity %. It was claimed, by Health Secretary Matt Hancock on 18th September on Talk Radio, that the FPR of the current RT-PCR test for Covid-19 is “less than one percent”. This implies a specificity greater than 99%. However, the devil is in the detail. This ...

Second Lockdown Underway. Fines Increased to £10,000 Will the madness never end? From September 22nd, areas across the North of England and the Midlands will see additional restrictions imposed. People won't be allowed to socialise with anyone outside their households, cafes, pubs and restaurants will be restricted to table service only and, in some areas, restaurants, pubs and cinemas will be forced to close at 10pm. The Telegraph has more. Local lockdowns are being put into place across England in a bid to stop a second wave of coronavirus, on top of the 'rule of six' that applies nationwide.The Government imposed new restrictions on the areas of Merseyside, Warrington, Halton and Lancashire on Friday, September 18.Similar restrictions were also announced for Wolverhampton and Oadby & Wigston in the Midlands, along with the areas of Bradford, Kirklees and Calderdale in West Yorkshire.From Tuesday, September 22 onwards, residents in these areas will no longer be allowed to socialise with other people outside of their own households or their support bubble in private homes and gardens.Hospitality for food and drink will be restricted to table service only and restaurants, pubs, and cinemas are required to close between 10pm and 5am.Birmingham, Greater Manchester, Bolton and parts of the North East are also among the areas under local lockdown. The Government claims these additional restrictions ...

by Dr Michael Yeadon I never expected to be writing something like this. I am an ordinary person, recently semi-retired from a career in the pharmaceutical industry and biotech, where I spent over 30 years trying to solve problems of disease understanding and seek new treatments for allergic and inflammatory disorders of lung and skin. I’ve always been interested in problem solving, so when anything biological comes along, my attention is drawn to it. Come 2020, came SARS-CoV-2. I’ve written about the pandemic as objectively as I could. The scientific method never leaves a person who trained and worked as a professional scientist. Please do read that piece. My co-authors & I will submit it to the normal rigours of peer review, but that process is slow and many pieces of new science this year have come to attention through pre-print servers and other less conventional outlets. While paying close attention to data, we all initially focused on the sad matter of deaths. I found it remarkable that, in discussing the COVID-19 related deaths, most people I spoke to had no idea of large numbers. Asked approximately how many people a year die in the UK in the ordinary course of events, each a personal tragedy, They usually didn’t know. I had to inform them it is around 620,000, sometimes ...