Day: 12 September 2020

Government Innumeracy

by James Ferguson Matt Hancock and his closest advisors receive the latest modelling update from Prof Neil Ferguson Are you positive you are ‘positive’? “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do sir?” – John Maynard Keynes The UK has a big problem with the false positive rate (FPR) of its COVID-19 tests. The authorities acknowledge no FPR, so positive test results are not corrected for false positives and that is a big problem. The standard COVID-19 RT-PCR test results have a consistent positive rate of ≤ 2% which also appears to be the likely false positive rate (FPR), rendering the number of official ‘cases’ virtually meaningless. The likely low virus prevalence (~0.02%) is consistent with as few as 1% of the 6,100+ Brits now testing positive each week in the wider community (pillar 2) tests actually having the disease. We are now asked to believe that a random, probably asymptomatic member of the public is 5x more likely to test ‘positive’ than someone tested in hospital, which seems preposterous given that ~40% of diagnosed infections originated in hospitals. The high amplification of PCR tests requires them to be subject to black box software algorithms, which the numbers suggest are preset at a 2% positive rate. If so, we will never get ‘cases’ down until and ...

Latest News

Simon Dolan To Challenge "Rule of Six" in the Court of Appeal A group of Covid Marshals set about their morning's work Simon Dolan's legal team is intending to bring up the "Rule of Six" in the Court of Appeal when it appeals the High Court's rejection of its legal challenge against the coronavirus regulations. The Telegraph has more. The new 'rule of six' Covid-19 restrictions face a legal challenge as the Government is taken to court over its “irrational” and “disproportionate” measures to combat coronavirus.Amid complaints that the new regulations barring meetings of more than six people will deny grandparents access to their grandchildren, lawyers plan to use them in support of a Court of Appeal claim that the lockdown measures were unlawful.The judicial review is being brought by multi-millionaire businessman Simon Dolan, backed by a £250,000 crowdfunding campaignThe action was initially rejected by the high court but is now subject of an appeal to be heard on September 28 and 29.“The appeal relates to legislation that was introduced before the latest measures. One of the reasons the judge tried to kybosh us was on the grounds that it was academic as the lockdown had been eased,” said Michael Gardner, one of the lawyers masterminding the action.“This shows that it is not academic, with the reintroduction of restrictions. It ...

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