Day: 22 September 2020

By James Ferguson James Gilray imagines what would have happened to MPs if Napoleon had successfully invaded Britain: "We come to recover your lost liberties." They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safetyBenjamin Franklin Whilst my note on the false positive rate (FPR) made its way into the corridors of power, the Health Department’s response was at once dismissive but innumerate. Fortunately, not all parliamentarians are so easily fobbed off and one has asked me to prepare a brief, which is why the following is not in the usual format. It appears that the number of amplification cycles used in PCR tests, whether there is any quality control, the false positive rate (for both Pillar 1 and Pillar 2) and the incidence of the disease are all state secrets. However, what is clear is that none of those wielding the controls understand the maths. Both Secretary of State, Matt Hancock (who says the FPR is “under 1%”) and Baroness Harding’s chief medical advisor, Dr Susan Hopkins (definitely less than 1-in-100 and more likely 1-in-1000) believe the FPR is so low as to result in what Hancock calls a “very small proportion of false positives”. In fact, even a FPR as fancifully low as 0.1% (and there is a mass of ...

10pm Curfew? Time For Bed, Prime Minister Stay at home... Go back to work... Stay at home... er... Our hopeless, busted flush of a Prime Minister is going to announce today that pubs and restaurants will have to close by 10pm from Thursday, with table-only service for the foreseeable future. Exceptions to the "rule of six" for weddings and funerals will be eliminated, too. Needless to say, this is to fend off a wholly imaginary "second wave". The Mail does its best to relay Downing Street's spin on this nonsense, although its heart isn't in it. In July, Mr Johnson urged staff to "go back to work if you can" in a bid to prevent city centres becoming ghost towns.But a source told the Mail that employees will be advised to "work from home if you can" during the coming weeks.The restrictions have divided the Cabinet, with Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Business Secretary Alok Sharma both warning about the potential impact on the economy. But a senior Government source insisted all ministers accepted the move was needed to bring the R-rate, which measures how fast the disease is spreading, back under control."The aim is to cause maximum damage to the R and minimal damage to the economy," the source said. "Unless we act now, there will be greater economic damage ...