“Scientists are scratching their heads over the precipitous decline in daily COVID-19 infections”, says a recent article in the journal Nature. “A sharp fall in the number of people testing positive has surprised scientists”, says a piece in the FT. According to the epidemiologist John Edmunds, “Nobody really knows what’s going on.”
Should scientists really be surprised by the fall in case numbers? Yes, some remaining restrictions were lifted on July 19th – the U.K.’s supposed ‘Freedom Day’. But cases have fallen in the absence of restrictions many times before. It’s therefore hardly surprising they would do so again.
To identify previous examples where infections fell in the absence of restrictions, I utilised the Oxford Blavatnik School’s COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. Specifically, I looked for examples where cases fell from a peak at a time when there were no mandatory business closures in place, and there was no mandatory stay-at-home order.
I was able to identify nine examples. (And note: one’s ability to identify examples is limited by the fact that almost all countries have had either mandatory business closures or a mandatory stay-at-home order in place during each successive wave of the virus.)
The nine examples are as follows: Sweden in the spring of 2020; Japan in the spring, the summer and the winter of 2020; North Dakota in the winter of 2020; South Dakota in the winter of 2020; Wyoming in the winter of 2020; Utah in the winter of 2020; and Iowa in the winter of 2020.
In all nine cases, infections fell in the complete absence of either mandatory business closures or a mandatory stay-at-home order. (Though in some of the cases, there were restrictions on large gatherings, or other less intrusive measures in place.)
It should be noted that all these locations other than Japan have relatively low population densities – which presumably equates to lower transmission, all else being equal. (And Japan’s “success” in dealing with the virus may be due to some cultural or biological factor that is common to every country in South East Asia.) Nonetheless, differences in population density are of degree not of kind.
So what explains the declines – did people just change their behaviour voluntarily? Not necessarily, as I’ve noted before. In South Dakota, cases began falling rapidly in mid November, despite almost no government restrictions and little change in people’s overall mobility. How could this happen?
One possible explanation is super-spreaders. We know there is substantial variation in transmissibility across individuals. Most people don’t transmit the virus to anyone; but a few people spread it to many others. Perhaps cases start declining once enough of these super-spreaders have been infected.
Whatever the true explanation, lockdowns are not necessary for infections to start falling (even if they may cause this to happen slightly earlier or slightly faster than otherwise). Why, then, are the scientists so puzzled?
One reason, as Philippe Lemoine noted in our recent interview, is that some epidemiological models simply assume that only lockdowns can have a large effect on transmission. Not particularly scientific, you might say, but that’s modelling for you.
The fact that infections have been falling in the U.K. is actually even less surprising than I’ve suggested so far. That’s because over 93% of Britons now have Covid antibodies – acquired from either vaccines or natural infection (whereas in the examples listed above, the numbers were far lower).
In summary, a decline in case numbers is only surprising if you’re reasoning from a flawed model.
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I’m not surprised that the large number of false positive PCRs tests are falling
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It’s summer.
The doom mongers probably never come out from under the bed long enough to notice thus fact.
It was summer when we were at 50,000 cases. Surely the seasonality argument is well and truly refuted with outbreaks all over the Northern Hemisphere this summer?
Outbreaks of false positive cases!
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/why-cdc-quietly-abandoning-pcr-test-covid
So false positives went from 2,000 a day to 50,000 a day in one month? How come?
It doesn’t really matter. The tests as they are current being done and used give meaningless data, that is then abused.
‘So false positives went from 2,000 a day to 50,000 a day in one month? How come?‘
The mystical power of the filthy rich?
Probably a mixture of propaganda and testing. How can anyone trust anything coming from a Governments who have been lying to their populations for years.
Some commentators claim 100% false positives. Who knows?
Presumably you’ve never heard of “summer colds”. “Seasonal” does not mean “never spreads in summer”.
Fortunately epidemiologists like Prof Eyal Shahar have:
“פרופ’ אייל שחר
@prof_shahar
It is crystal clear.
The UK Delta wave is endemic.
[Endemic = case wave, no significant mortality wave, no excess deaths.]
We would not have noticed it in normal times.
All family members create such common cold waves.“
https://twitter.com/prof_shahar/status/1420081080569274376
As for “50k cases”, what makes you think that’s significant at all? We’ve never before obsessively tested for viral fragments on this kind of immense scale. Seems likely we’d have found similar numbers in previous years when an endemic respiratory virus was causing a minor summer cold epidemic, with little mortality impact because it’s summer.
Presumably you’ve never heard of “summer colds”. “Seasonal” does not mean “never spreads in summer”.
Yes – but there is an established pattern of more colds in the winter and you rarely get comparable waves of colds in the summer. There is no established pattern for Covid – in 2020 most of Europe had a peak in the Spring and a peak over the winter of 20/21 while most of North America had a peak in the summer. Now most Northern hemisphere countries are having a peak this summer. I have expect Covid will settle down to some seasonal pattern eventually but we simply don’t have enough data to say what that pattern is.
If you don’t accept the 50K as cases then the whole discussion as to what caused the decline is pointless. There simply another plausible explanation for the pattern of positive test results than a wave of infections.
You can’t compare the blip this summer with the initial epidemic or the winter upturn. They are simply utterly different beasts.
“I have expect Covid will settle down to some seasonal pattern eventually but we simply don’t have enough data to say what that pattern is.”
The presumption obviously is that it will fall into the same pattern as all the other endemic respiratory viruses, just like the other cold-causing coronaviruses. That has always been the overwhelmingly most likely presumption, and while it’s obviously rebuttable if evidence suggesting something significantly new and different arises, there’s been no reason to support that so far.
There is clearly a danger that the insanity of mass vaccination with leaky vaccines will cause it to evolve and behave differently from past examples, but that’s yet to be firmly evidenced as happening. Blame for that, if it transpires, will fall squarely on the shoulders of those who panicked and over-reacted.
“If you don’t accept the 50K as cases”
Calling them “cases” is necessarily and by definition a propagandist lie. Never before has evidence of viral or viral fragment presence without symptoms been classed as a “case” of a disease, for the very good reason that the disease is the symptoms, and not mere presence of a pathogen.
As noted, claiming a rise in test positive numbers as evidence of something new in this virus is ridiculous, because you have no similar precedents of such insane mass testing to compare with these numbers. Which in any case still represent very low percentages of extremely high test numbers.
I also assume that all our lockdown messing about is cocking the normal progression of things – I’ve heard the phrase “Kicking the can down the road” a few times.
You can’t compare the blip this summer with the initial epidemic or the winter upturn. They are simply utterly different beasts.
So which one should we take as representative of the pattern of Covid infections in the future?
The presumption obviously is that it will fall into the same pattern as all the other endemic respiratory viruses, just like the other cold-causing coronaviruses.
First, that is not true of all endemic respiratory viruses: https://www.cdc.gov/parainfluenza/index.html
Second, it is not much use just saying it is winter seasonal without some idea of the likely timing, duration, magnitude and reliability of the “season”. Otherwise you can point to almost any outbreak and say “oh its seasonal – you sometimes get this pattern with seasonal viruses”. That has no explanatory power.
Parainfuenzas are seasonal as well. Pointing to a partial exception doesn’t change the overwhelming likelihood that covid will be seasonal in the broadly normal way.
The recent blip is no reason to dismiss the likely overall direction of travel, since it will presumably take time for a new virus to settle into its long term pattern, especially when it’s constantly disturbed by panic responses..
From 12th June to the 07th August 2020, all cause mortality was below its 5 year average..
Followed by 3 weeks of slightly above
Followed by another week of below its 5 year average
Before lockdown 1 in March, apart from the 2nd week of January.. All below its average
Cases of what? Or do you mean positive tests using various inconsistent testing methods that tell us very little if anything of significance or importance. Wind the clock back a couple of years and start doing absurd mass testing for the presence of bits of stuff that might indicate the presence of virus x, y or z and you’d find hundreds of thousands of “cases” and some of those people might be ill with something or in hospital or die of something which may or may not be linked to what your test found. Bonkers.
There is a real life instance of this from 2006: https://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/22/health/22whoop.html
PCR testing lead to a completely false epidemic of whooping cough when there was in fact not a single patient.
Summer here, ‘Winter’ in Florida.
But hey, if there are now a dozen of biological sexes, what do you expect?!
Cases of what?
Karl Denninger
great piece explaining the situation we find ourselves in re the Vax
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=3682671
Good article tc – thanks.
Slight shame that Karl Denninger is a tech expert and businessman rather than a top drawer virologist, immunologist or epidemiologist. Although his article makes a lot of sense to sceptics like us – it is just his opinion – which isn’t any more (or less) valid than anyone else’s who isn’t a medical expert.
Do you think the medical experts’ opinions are more valid then? Evidence wrt covid suggests otherwise. In fact the medical experts who seem to get quoted most often are usually talking demonstrable rubbish, or as its known, lying.
Vallance and Whitty are medical experts. They are also humans, with all the weaknesses humans have. Vanity, greed, cowardice.
Hi Julian,
Yes, I concur 100%.
The point I was trying to make – perhaps not very well – is that we (i.e. lockdown sceptics and those opposed to the experimental gene therapy) are in a tiny minority, therefore it’s imperative that the people we reference are highly credible. Beyond question, the best of the best. Denninger would tick this box if he were to write/talk about business and the financial markets – but his opinions on medical matters are just that – opinions. If he’d referenced his blog post and/or quoted eminent experts or academic texts, that would be a different matter. Unfortunately, he didn’t.
On a broader point, at the rally at Trafalgar Square a few weekends ago, two of the keynote speakers were Piers Corbyn and David Icke respectively. Now, I have nothing against either of them and, indeed, agree with much of what they say. However, in the mainstream world, not only are neither of them credible, they’re viewed as crackpots. If we want to gain support and win over ‘ordinary’ people to our side of the debate, we need high profile individuals who are totally believable experts in their respective fields. It’s all about perception – it’s not about who’s right or wrong. Witty and Vallance are perceived by many as being highly credible (sadly) – the likes of Corbyn and Icke are anything but. Therein lies the problem. I hope you understand the point because, IMO, it’s of vital importance if the ‘fight back better’ campaign is ever going to get any traction.
‘If we want to gain support and win over ‘ordinary’ people to our side of the debate, we need high profile individuals who are totally believable experts in their respective fields.’
In every campaigning organisation that I’ve been a member of there has always been someone just like you, and the ‘contribution’ to the debate never varies; it’s always ‘we don’t want to be too extreme’. You’d feel safer if you stayed out of grass roots politics and stuck to church socials, with the mother and toddler club. However, you can’t stand being insignificant and need to make yourself known so you get in the way and waste the time of those who aren’t afraid to get out and draw some attention to themselves (that’s called action and it gets things done, and it is characteristic of leaders).
Here’s what you do: you get off your arse and put a nice moderate proposal together that you think might appeal to ‘high profile individuals who are totally believable experts in their respective fields‘ and then you send it to them. Assure them that you are not a ‘crackpot’ or an ‘extremist’ and see what happens. You’ll get nowhere and probably won’t even get a reply beyond an acknowledgement, which is why you are always amongst those ‘moderate’ people who sit in the middle row at public meetings, assuming that you actually go to any, and say fuck all of any worth. I am sick to death of your sort; frightened neurotics who want ‘someone’ to change things but are terrified of being thought ‘cranky’ or ‘extreme’ so do nothing but try to discourage others from action.
You’ve got nothing to say so shut up.
“You’ve got nothing to say so shut up.”
On the contrary William, I’m making a very serious point. It’s the single most important lesson I’ve learned in my adult life. If we are to win this David and Goliath battle, you must understand that what matters above all else – absolutely everything – is perception.
It matters not one jot who is right or wrong, good or bad, it’s how that person is perceived that matters. Icke and Corbyn are perceived as being crackpots by most people; ergo, they lack credibility. Inadvertantly, and in spite of their doubtless good intentions – they are part of the problem and hinder rather than help us get to where we want to be. Being extreme (which you appear to favour) will not win the day. All it will do is play into the hands of the people running this shit show because they know that the majority of people will reject extremists in favour of moderate, credible people like Witty and Vallance.
Just to be crystal clear, I don’t personally think that Witty and Vallance are moderate and credible people. On the contrary, I view them as criminals. However, I recognise and accept (albeit grudgingly) that the majority of people perceive them as being moderate and credible. Unless and until you and everyone else on this side of the argument understands and accepts this – the ‘fight back better’ campaign is doomed before it even gets started.
If you want to discuss this further I’m happy to engage, but please refrain from the ad hominem attacks which aren’t helpful or productive. I understand that you’re angy – as am I – but keep in mind that I’m your ally – not your foe. 😉
You’re a windbag with nothing to say. You try to hide your craven cowardice and intellectual vacuity with a tissue thin and all too transparent veneer of lofty intellectualism and genteel moral superiority yet you actually add nothing to any debate you insert yourself into other than to frustrate people far more capable than you with your pomposity and smug self-satisfaction. You’ll sit around a table in some church hall or party committee room pontificating endlessly about what others need to do and dismissing any plan for action on the grounds that you are ‘above all that’ and don’t want to appear to be an ‘extremist’ or a ‘crackpot’ (what a bloody silly word that is and how typical that you use it). To your sort anything that actually involves doing rather than talking is ‘extreme’.
You have the presumption to describe yourself as my ally; you are not, by any means. You are the enemy of everyone who sees that only action can change what is happening and you are an obstacle to all who are actors. I see your type as a problem to be eradicated and your death will be something to celebrate.
I feel soiled just communicating with you on this forum so this thread is ended.
Wow, you’re on fire William – fantastic stuff! I have to say, I ran the whole gamut of emotions reading that, from A to B.
At least I understand your agenda now; you’re not here because you object to lockdowns or mandatory vaccination etc., you’re an aspiring comedian and you thought you’d try out your novel brand of ‘humour’ on me. Judging by the number of thumbs down – it looks like you’ve got some work to do.
Anyway, I wish you the best of luck – you’re gonna need it. And if I ever get to see you performing on stage, I promise to applaud you loudly. After all, I’ll be the only one. 🙂
Dear Billy Goat Gruff,
May I respectfully suggest that you “don’t get mad, get even” might be worth investigating..
A Pandemic of The Vaccinated – Does The Vaccine Create a Pathway For A More Dangerous Variant?https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2021/08/05/a-pandemic-of-the-vaccinated-does-the-vaccine-create-a-pathway-for-a-more-dangerous-variant/
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/leaky-vaccines-enhance-spread-of-deadlier-chicken-viruses
I think this is a little out of date. Cases fell dramatically between the 19th and 25th of July but since then there has been no clear trend. The removal of restrictions on the 19th is unlikely to show up in the cases for at least a week – many people wouldn’t even have the opportunity to socialise until the next weekend and then there is the four-five day median incubation period.
To my mind cases does not mean dodgy test results it means people ill in hospital. In the last few days the total number of so called ‘covid’ patients in English NHS hospitals has started to fall, I call that a fall in cases, the huge mega thousands of test results are just a virtually meaningless academic glass bead game.
COVID patients graph attached. Definite change in trend lately.
What is often missed when looking at these graphs is just how few patients there are – an average of about 3 or 4 per hospital.
How do they define “covid patient”?
Well exactly.
Someone who is in hospital and has tested positive for COVID-19, no doubt.
Regardless of the reason for their admission, and regardless of whether they have any COVID-19 symptoms or not, and regardless of whether they caught COVID-19 in hospital.
The true number of ACTUAL COVID-19 patients is probably a fraction of those numbers.
Indeed. Remarkable that this true number is by their own admission unknown to the government after 18 months of this nonsense. You’d think it was more or less the first thing they would want to get a handle on. But they’ve no interest in real, useful data.
I’m gobsmacked you still refer to a positive 45 cycle PCR as a case
epidemiologist John Edmunds, “Nobody really knows what’s going on”.
No John, you and your modellers don’t know what’s going on, and never have – but there are many excellent actual (but censored) scientists that do know and have always known what’s going on, like Dr Malone the inventor of mNRA vaccine technology.
Excellent Malone/Navaro article posted by SB yesterday yesterday, would be great if you could re-post the link
https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/aug/5/biden-teams-misguided-and-deadly-covid-19-vaccine-/
We know what’s going on. Powerful people around the world are using covid as a pretext to grab more power.
unfortunately, when you point that out to all the fully jabbed up lockdown lubbers who are believers in the ”the science” cult, they just think your a conspiracy theory nutter – they need persuading in a subtle way
this explains the problem of mass psychosis brilliantly…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09maaUaRT4M
Marvellous, thanks
This time last year there were less than 10 people a day dying with/of covid and that was without the so called vaccine. Today over 100 people a day are dying with/of covid and with a vaccine. Am I missing something here?
“Nobody really knows what’s going on.”
The story line of the whole ‘pandemic’, and how future historians, doctors and true scientists will summarize it.
Unless it’s really been orchestrated, of course.
It definitely has been orchestrated, the question is who knows about the orchestration and who has been tricked/blackmailed into believing in the agenda? I think some of the techniques they use to get this level of groupthink are quite subtle sometimes, other times not. Ultimately a lot of people have rolled up their sleeve and taken the Satan juice, so these people have been tricked, but there is potentially a side agenda of arranging for people to receive placebos which we know almost nothing about but many would not be surprised to find that such a scheme exists.
Presumably one could say that by definition cases fall when herd immunity for the particular conditions has been reached. Obviously if the conditions change significantly enough then the applicable herd immunity threshold might change, but presumably any change would have to be pretty big and pretty fast to retrigger rapid spread.
Maybe not much. Rather like a penny is used to regulate Big Ben, just enough to tip the scales
I’m assuming generally not, in the immediate aftermath of an epidemic, as there would be a degree of overshoot and a consumption of the “dry tinder”.
superspreader bollox
Yes I’ve never believed that either. Too convenient a way to both publicly shame people and persuade everyone to stay home less they unwittingly commit genocide.
Stop complying. Stop moaning. Start fighting. Don’t ever wear masks. “Exempt”. I always insist (politely) on others removing their masks for me (Hard of hearing) – they have to by law. See what’s happening in Australia. It’s coming here soon if we don’t stop it now. Don’t ever stop using problematic stores, services or businesses. Use them more often! Any problems – Complain directly to the manager in person (maskless of course) – then send letters to head office – don’t give in to negativity. FIGHT. BACK. BETTER. All the resources you need: https://www.LCAHub.org/
I’ve stopped listening to the lunatics, crooks and charlatans. It’s a sunny summer day, get out and enjoy it!
It our anniversary today, going to put the coronabollox on hold for a bit and head off to lunch in the park.
Happy anniversary. It’s ours, too. Five years 🙂
Happy anniversary to you too!🍾
Oh dear! It’s even less surprising than that (allowing for the fact we’re not even talking about real infections.
When have viruses ever maintained a constant presence?
That why we have ‘flu seasons, which, in themselves vary in timing and severity.
FFS!!!!
cases rise and fall with every disease we’ve ever known, ever
why would it be a surprise?
it could be a surprise to someone who didn’t understand about disease epidemiology and thought the number of people is infinite I suppose
“relatively low population densities – which presumably equates to lower transmission”.
Really? Surely, what matters is whether a country’s population lives in urban areas or not. Sweden’s population, for example, is MORE urbanised than the UK’s.
and whether they are touchy feely types. I heard that in Finland they were appalled at the 2m rule. They aren’t comfortable under normal circumstances if they are less than 5m from each other
Yes – one of the biggest lies about Sweden: it REALLY should NOT be repeated here.
Shame on you Noah.
According to this data, Sweden’s population-weighted density is lower than the UK’s, and is below the European average: https://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset/jrc-luisa-udp-pwd-ref2016
Looking at the % living in urban areas, worldometers gives the figures of 83% for UK and 88% for Sweden as living in urban areas.
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/sweden-population/
I suppose what they might be “scratching their heads” about is how the Delta variant produced so many cases in the first place, and then (seemingly arbitrarily) started to fall ever since restrictions were lifted.
The fact that a new variant has caused a surge in cases is simply a consequence of normal epidemiological dynamics. Combined with the fact that deaths and hospitalizations remain tiny relative to cases, it further demonstrates how effectively the vaccination programme has, along with increasing natural immunity, prevented cases from becoming serious illnesses.
I suspect it’s mainly just the hardline, pro-lockdown, Imperial College scientists and their disciples who are scratching their heads. And perhaps the SAGE modelers themselves, who presumably are reluctant to admit they were wrong.
how do we know the vaccines have done that? We know delta is more infectious but less deadly.
Seems to me like the virus is acting like every other respiratory virus does.
0.000001%
The percentage of people who mention the word “variant” and actually have a clue what it is. A proper clue. Not just repeating shit others have said.
Jesus!!!
Epidemics of respiratory diseases come and go by themselves.
They always have done. Always will.
The hypothesis that governments can intervene to control these epidemics has been tested to death over the last 18 months and failed.
Do we really have to be asking the same question over and over and over and over.
EPIDEMICS. COME. AND. GO. BY. THEMSELVES.
If I see another article pondering why “cases” might be going down in spite of relaxation of measures i’m going to top myself.
Agreed with all but the last sentence – which, if taken (or meant) literally would count as a su1cide letter. Don’t do it (lol), we need all hands on deck!
I am only surprised that the Gov have not been able to find a new way of mass screening in order to perpetuate the myth that we are in a crisis. It’s really very inconsiderate of the UK population that we could embarrass SAGE in this way by not being sicker. We must try harder!
Why are people on this site still using the term ‘cases’?It’s a meaningless positive test result ffs.
If case rises and falls cannot be predicted or understood, how can anyone claim to be controlling the virus based on measures taken and incomplete data?
Masks worn by 99.9 percent of people were a constant over 18 months, yet the virus ‘rose’ then ‘fell’ several times. Which rise or fall was due to masks? By extension, so with vaccines (let’s see what happens). The net effect is indifferent. Covid will never be destroyed, but our hysterical attempts to do so will destroy us instead.
I still think all the modellers neglected seasonality, which has different effects at different latitudes / in different climates.
The seasonality hypothesis arose historically from observations of patterns of sickness, long before viruses were discovered. People measured rates of sickness, not positive tests.
If infection rates continue to rise in northern US States and Canada, as they have in Northern Europe recently, then mass testing may help resolve a long-standing debate about where seasonal respiratory viruses go in the summer (at northern temperate latitudes): they still circulate, but don’t cause much sickness and death.
However, if it’s not summer, but the vaccines that have broken the link between infection and death, then the age/population adjusted Covid mortality will be much less this coming winter – as it is at present.
But if it’s the summer that’s broken the link, death will return for those left in ‘God’s waiting room’ much as it has done the last two winters.
It might be worth asking an undertaker, or even a psychologist (if they’re allowed to speak), or even a Priest, about seasonal effects. Not all that surprising, to many of us who have been around for a while.
In other words huge taxpayer profits for big pharma whilst probably creating a ‘need’ for even more money-making boosters. All to hide what is probably the most sinister reason for these injections.
While it is true that cases ‘have fallen’ it is not true that cases ‘are falling’. For the last week they haven’t.