Public Health England yesterday released their latest technical briefing on the variants of concern, number 20, and it has some illuminating data.
It provides us with the infection, hospitalisation and death rates for the Delta variant, broken down by vaccination status and age. This allows us to do a calculation of the real-world vaccine effectiveness in the over-50s during the Delta surge, albeit a rough one without any adjustments.
The latest report has data up to August 2nd. If we substract from these values the data in Briefing 17 (up to June 21st) then we get the data covering the period June 22nd to August 2nd, which broadly corresponds to the bulk of the Delta surge in the U.K. The vaccine rollout to the over-50s was basically complete by this point, having stabilised according to PHE at around 88% double vaccinated and 10% unvaccinated (the other two per cent remaining single vaccinated, perhaps due to a bad reaction to the first dose).
In this period the PHE data tells us there were 2,464 Delta cases in the unvaccinated over-50s and 17,926 in the fully vaccinated over-50s. From this we can estimate the vaccine effectiveness against infection in the over-50s during the Delta surge as 17% (1-[(17,926/88%)/(2,464/10%)]). This confirms using additional data the estimate I made last week.
We can make a similarly rough calculation of the vaccine effectiveness against death. Between June 22nd and August 2nd, PHE reports that among the over-50s there were 339 deaths with the Delta variant in the double vaccinated and 167 in the unvaccinated. Using the same proportions vaccinated and unvaccinated as above, this gives a vaccine effectiveness against death in the over-50s during the Delta surge of 77% (1-[(339/88%)/(167/10%)]). Interestingly, this is very similar to the latest estimate of vaccine effectiveness against serious disease from Israel, which is around 80%. This is a decent level of protection and helps explain why the Delta surge had proportionally fewer hospitalisations and deaths, but it is well below the levels suggested by earlier studies and quoted by PHE, which are north of 95%.
Another noteworthy point from the briefing is that the secondary attack rate (SAR, the proportion of contacts that an infected person infects) of the Delta variant has continued to decline as the surge exhausts itself. The household SAR is now at 10.8%, down from a high of 13.5% on May 4th. This means nearly 90% of the people who live with someone infected with the ‘highly transmissible’ Delta variant do not contract the virus, an indication of widespread (and growing) immunity to the variant. Note that this is well below the 15.5% ‘direct contact’ SAR of the Alpha variant in the middle of December, giving the lie to the oft-repeated claim that Delta is intrinsically more infectious than Alpha.
A final point is that the briefing includes for the first time important analysis showing the vaccines are unlikely to do much in the way of reducing how infectious a person is. The researchers found that samples from vaccinated and unvaccinated infected people had similar average cycle threshold (Ct) values, meaning they had similar viral loads, suggesting a comparable level of infectiousness. The authors write:
In the NHS Test and Trace (NHSTT) case data, the mean and median lowest Ct values for all cases with Delta, where Ct data are available, since the 14 June 2021 are similar, with a median of 17.8 for unvaccinated and 18.0 for those with 2 vaccine doses. This means that whilst vaccination may reduce an individual’s overall risk of becoming infected, once they are infected there is limited difference in viral load (and Ct values) between those who are vaccinated and unvaccinated. Given they have similar Ct values, this suggests limited difference in infectiousness. To note, this analysis is undertaken on case data and are not age-stratified. Findings can be influenced by test-seeking behaviour, as well as true changes in the data, for example the age distribution of cases, which can also influence Ct values.
This new data from PHE is in line with the latest findings from Israel, where the SAR was no lower among the vaccinated, and from the U.S. CDC, which found no difference in average Ct values between vaccinated and unvaccinated people.
Many news outlets have picked up this story, but few have drawn the obvious conclusion: that this further undermines the case for vaccine passports as it suggests vaccinated people are no less likely to pass on the virus than unvaccinated people. When added to the very low vaccine effectiveness against infection it’s hard to see how there is any case for vaccine passports left at all, even on their own terms, quite apart from any considerations of freedom and non-discrimination.
This latest data reinforces the picture that had been emerging in recent months of vaccines which do little to prevent infection or transmission (and thus to prevent or stop outbreaks) but which do reduce severe disease and death in the vaccinated, albeit not by as much as was originally claimed. This confirms that vaccination may be a good way of a person at high risk from the disease reducing their personal risk, but it has almost no value as a way of protecting others, so there is no benefit in vaccinating children, introducing vaccine passports domestically or internationally, or coercing young people to get a vaccine which to them is almost all risk and no benefit.
Discussion
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If you are comparing deaths in a group of under-50s and over-50s, then there are going to be more deaths in the over-50s simply due to age.
How do you correct for this in the stats?
If the vaccinated are 17% less likely to get infected, they are also 17% less likely to pass on the infection. So there is your demanded “reduction in infectiousness”. 17% is greater than zero for sure. But of course, on this very “sceptical” site it apparently does not matter to lie right there through the headline.
Well, this data shows that vaccine passports may still be required to protect all those old idiots who did not vaccinate from themselves.
Actually, this was my assumed justification all along, and I found it very idiotic for media to spin it into direction of “unvaccinated being the danger”. The truth is, everyone is a danger, and the unvaccinated will be just sacrificed to reopen businesses (but it’s hard to sell to public that way).
Again, when I look at the figures for Report 20 and Report 17, what I see is that in the over 50s the vaccine seems more effective on the face of it. 1.89% of those over 50 who have received 2 doses and who caught Covid then went on to die. In the unvaccinated over 50s who caught Covid, 6.78% went on to die. That is obviously a major improvement, but its still somewhat concerning that 1.89% of double vaccinated people went on to die. It must also be balanced against the level of side effects.
When I look at the figures between report 20 and report 17, what I see is that 0.06% of double vaccinated people under 50 who got Covid went on to die. 0.04% of unvaccinated people under 50 who got Covid went on to die. On the face of it, given the uncertainties around how much the vaccine reduces transmission, and the unknown side effects, this does not seem a great advert for extending vaccination to the under 50s.
Someone I know was terribly ill yesterday for no reason at all – out of the blue she suddenly felt sick, threw up, fever, chills, aches and pains – had to leave work early – I said it was probably something she had eaten – food poisoning maybe? But she dismissed that. Shes better today though – so she could have caught a bug.
I didn’t mention the vaccine but she has had both jabs.
Quite a few people I know who have had the jabs are coming down with kinds of weird bugs, illnesses, infections – not mention headaches and bouts of migraine …. one person I know complains of a terrible pain behind one eye for about a week now which she is taking paracetomol for – all very odd symptoms going around.
Why the lurid scaremongering headline? That’s what the MSM do. Very disappointing from the Daily Sceptic
Just a thought. The lockdowns prevent people going outdoors, pretty much. Thus people’s vitamin d levels drop and their ability to fight infection drops significantly. The government and their advisors know this. Yet still they have plans to do this again. When combined with a complete failure to encourage people to take vitamin d supplements it seems like a deliberate action on the government’s part.
Every single policy, restriction, mandate, NPI, PI and withheld PI has had just this effect: making more people more sick in order to reduce average life expectancy, which might just save pension systems.
As viruses mutate they become less deadly and less virulent. This is standard happening. The claim that the experimental jab has anything to do with this has no provable basis in fact.
“ the Delta surge”
Willie still playing with government toys regarding the same-iants, I see.
Assumptions about mortality being related to the vaccine are mickey-mouse in the extreme. The most probable explanation is the growing (and expected) lessening of virulence of the virus, and growing general immunity.
Viruses do mutate. Normally this isn’t an issue but the Covid ‘vaccines’ only focus on a very narrow target. Mutations which alter the S1 sub-unit of the spike protein could result in immune escape – or worse – ADE.
I suspect we just have a situation in which vaccine immunity is waning. We could confirm this by comparing infection rate in those who were vaccinated early with those who have been vaccinated more recently.
We could confirm this by comparing infection rate in those who were vaccinated early with those who have been vaccinated more recently.
An obvious question – has been for weeks – which one would have thought was being studied as we write, but almost certainly isn’t.
How many of the frail were finished off by vaccination a few weeks ago, the frail unvaxxed were still alive to pass at their allotted time
“among the over-50s there were 339 deaths with the Delta variant in the double vaccinated and 167 in the unvaccinated”
Also – “died within 28 days of a PCR test” – whas Ct threshold for unvaxxed much higher than for vaxxed providing many more unvaxxed deaths for the stats
Sorry Will, but this is all a nonsense. For some time now, we’ve known these are not ‘vaccines’ in any sense of the word, so their ‘effectiveness’ has always been moot. And as for mortality being ‘cut’, well, it’s summer.
Yes, they are vaccines, in the dictionary sense of the word.
As for mortality being cut, this is a relative measure, so in the context presented here the season has no relevance at all.
Well, I think most people’s default understanding of vaccines is that once you’ve had one, you’re immune to the thing it is vaccinating you against. Meaning you won’t get it and you can’t spread it. That’s not the case with covid vaccines. I accept that’s not the case with flu vaccines either, but I think they are a category apart and most people’s assumption was that once they had been jabbed, that was it.
Yes it’s getting pretty sickening that at this stage, where our entire future is at stake, and all these people can muster is a load of pro-narrative shite while ignoring all the important stuff.
Recent Australian data shows 95-99% of hospitalisations are fully vaccinated, from a population that is only 15% fully vaccinated.
How are the plebs going to reconcile their ‘hero shots’ aren’t working?
Have you got a source for that?
They walked it back, just like Vallance did last week after accidentally speaking the truth.
That was a presentation by a doctor on 26.7. and he misspoke and corrected this later.
All but 1 were unvaccinated, not all but 1 were vaccinated.
I am not surprised by that.
Their Covid saga is just starting and they have plenty of dry tinder.
Obviously, most of them will have had co-morbidities, be obese etc. especially the younger ones, as everywhere else and obviously, they are not advertising this and all other caveats and tricks they play still apply.
Ok thanks – that sounds about right. As you say, their covid, and vaccination, saga is just starting. They’ve got it all to come, and a ring-side seat to what’s coming their way.
Well just replace Australia with Iceland, or Israel or Gibraltar, take your pick.
… or Thailand 83 deaths before vaccination rollout; 5k since.
https://twitter.com/Somkiet00920806/status/1423488835875348486/photo/1
The vaccines were created to control populations while it kills them.
That is a very misleading analysis. All last year, Thailand had very few cases and very few deaths, making the government complacent about vaccines.
In April this year, Delta hit, the cases and deaths went up rapidly, and the government belatedly started a mass vaccination program in June which has still only reached a small fraction of the population, with civil servants and health officials getting priority.
It is quite incorrect to suggest that vaccination is the cause of the vastly higher death numbers, if that is what you were suggesting.
That’s very odd because all analyses show that delta is distinctly less lethal than earlier variants.
The mortality rate has indeed fallen over time, from 1.85% to 0.81%. But the massive increase in case numbers has caused a rise in deaths from a very low starting point.
I call bullshit. This news report from Israel states that it is the vaccinated who are filling up the hospitals.
“95% of the severe patients are vaccinated”.
“85-90% of the hospitalizations are in Fully vaccinated people.”
“We are opening more and more COVID wards.”
“The effectiveness of the vaccine is waning/fading out”
https://twitter.com/RWMaloneMD/status/1423332834282979329
“If this holds true and is verified, this is looking more and more like ADE”
Robert Malone, inventor of core mRNA and viral vector DNA as a drug technology
Indeed. I was most struck by that tweet of a couple of days ago, and by the tables swedenborg and others have been putting btl on the daily update site.
So how does this tie in with Will’s statement here:
Interestingly, this is very similar to the latest estimate of vaccine effectiveness against serious disease from Israel, which is around 80%.
It doesn’t, nor does the data from Iceland.
Indeed – but it’s not like Will to get things so wrong. There’s so much bullshit around right now, it’s hard to know what to believe – and as sceptics we mustn’t fall lazily for confirmation bias.
Will hasn’t got it wrong but it is clearly an evolving situation.
We’re still, to a certain extent, looking in the rear view mirror. If vaccine efficacy is waning then older data is going to look more favourable.
We’re still, to a certain extent, looking in the rear view mirror.
Yes, but I’d have thought Will knew to avoid this, at least looking back too far.
CDC recently took it to its limits by citing data back to the start of the year, know full well the vaccine profile was very different then.
Careful. I’m not sure these figures relate to the whole of Israel but to a specific hospital which specialises in geriatric care.
Good point – we have to be precise in all this.
These figures just relate to a general hospital in Jerusalem not Israel as a whole.Last night in the the whole of Israel about 1/3 is unvaccinated in ICU and not only 5 % as in the Jerusalem hospital as reported in IsraelTV.The interesting thing though is that Jerusalem is the worst vaccinated part of Israel with only about 45% vaccination uptake but have this astonishing figure in the ICU as reported 95% vaccinated.
Covid Pass Exemption
It is not mandatory for an individual to wear a visual cue to outline they are exempt.
You should not ask these individuals to demonstrate their COVID-19 status through the NHS App.
(Source: NHS Website)
LCA Hub Website for further information and resources: https://www.LCAHub.org/
So, if this was really about health and medicine, stop calling these drugs vaccines, stick to offering them to the vulnerable, but do so worldwide, and stop the coercion and discrimination campaign against the unvaxxed and the lies they are based upon, and abolish any vaxx passports, testing or qurantine requirements, especially and immediately those for the unvaxxed only, for good.
An apology would also be in order and appreciated. For a start.
Above all by pseudo virtue-signalling bandwagon-jumping celebrity mor*ns like Jennifer A.&co.
What is your preferred definition of “vaccine”?
https://www.tichyseinblick.de/gastbeitrag/massenimpfung-gegen-sars-cov-2/
Any “rational” argument for Vaccine Passports is now blown out of the water. The numbers in the last 4 briefings are consistent.
Given 95% of deaths are in people with 1 or more underlying health conditions I see no argument for vaccinating any other individuals.
The Cycle Threshold graphs were very interesting too. It’s the first time I’ve noticed such data.
All things being equal, is it not the case, if we go along with the new virus narrative, even though it’s provably bullshit, because we all have prior immunity, but are we not at the stage where “the virus” has run out of its core susceptible targets, so all that’s left is people with natural immunity? Until the ADE kicks in that is. As an aside, it would be great the see some DS coverage of ADE considering it’s the DS core readership ie unvaccinated people who could be in the firing line as an excuse for it and also considering that we might be about to witness something like 30% of our fellow countrymen die, backed up by hardcore science. It is time for the wider world to know about ADE, sooner rather than later, otherwise you are just making life easy for the lying deceiving pieces of human filth who are running this crap on us. Don’t be nice to them – they are destroying your world and future too
I hope you’re right about the reduction in deaths for the 50+, however I’m skeptical.
First Pfizer own study showed no statistical difference. Yes it was small but if the signal was as big as 77% it should be easily visible. Maybe age of the test participants can explain this, I don’t know.
Second, all cause excess deaths have been below baseline since march for UK. This suggests to me lot of 50+ “dry wood” was spent in the peak around January.
3rd, this is summer and excess deaths shows not much going on really. I think we have to wait until fall/winter when the level of susceptible are back up to normal levels and a proper “wave” before we see what actual protection these vaccines have.
Note: I’m also starting to wonder what these PCR tests actually test for. The virus mutates from a fall/spring loving variant, to a traditional winter variant to a summer variant?? And this story about the “virus haven’t been properly isolated” which I dismissed at first seem more and more real. Are there more than one virus we’re seeing? Is this another HIV/Aids PCR fiasco? (Or on purpose..)
Please go to D4CE and review the online symposium held at the end of July; there you will find a thorough explanation of the Cormen-Drosten RT PCR test regime amongst other presentations most of which I found completely illuminating, very informative – they pull no punches: Doctors for Covid Ethics Symposium – Session 1: The False Pandemic … Symposium took place on July 29th and 30th. Session I : The False Pandemic with Prof. Martin … 05.05 The SARS-CoV-2 Genome: Evidence of its Artificial Origin / …
Doctors for Covid Ethics Symposium – Session 2: The Going Direct Reset … Symposium took place on July 29th and 30th. Session II: The Going Direct Reset with Catherine … … Doctors for Covid Ethics Symposium – Session 2: The Going Direct Reset …
Doctors for Covid Ethics Symposium – Session 3: First Do No Harm … Symposium took place on July 29th and 30th. Session III: First Do No Harm with Michael Palmer …
Doctors for Covid Ethics Symposium – Session 4: The Hour of Justice … Symposium took place on July 29th and 30th. Session IV: The Hour of Justice with Patrick …
There’s a very important caveat – deaths within 14 days of the first injection won’t count as vaxxed, yes? So if the vaxxing roll out during this period is increasing deaths, as we know they did in the elderly, they will be counted as deaths and proof of efficacy. Please point out if I am wrong.
I have a feeling that eventually we will all come to realise that this was never about a virus but rather, Control of people, societies, ie the NWO. If we allow it
I think those of us here came to realise that a long time ago; the rest of the population – I’m not so sure if or when their eyes will open.
If that’s true, it just does (partially) what it says on the tin. The fact that many politicians pretend that it does something brilliant, and are attempting to abuse the methodology in various ways is a different story. That said, I used the term ‘partially’, ‘cos I suspect it doesn’t express the whole truth on the ‘tin’ at all. Probably wouldn’t stand up in court, for that reason.
Would be interesting to see the age profile of the 339 / 167 vaxed/unvaxed deaths.
eg. if the unvaxed average age of death is significantly higher, then old-age will be a bigger factor rather than any alleged protective effect from the vaxes.
Also, I wonder how deaths due to the vax are classified? eg. if you fall ill and die within a few days of having the vax, how is this counted?
Another confounding factor is the PHE claim that 88% of over 50s are vaxed. We know that the actual UK population is 10-20% higher than official government figures which will further dilute the claimed vax effectiveness.
I still think there’s more conclusions that can be drawn from this graph… Take last month – why do all the alpha infections have a ct value of 18-20 – indicating that they are likely genuine infectious cases.
But the Delta infections have a ct value of 30-32 – past the point of clinical significance?
Am I missing something?
And if these ct values are available to PHE then why aren’t they reported to healthcare providers?
Freedom passes not about injections, they are about obedience, surveillance and control, those who refuse are outcasts and must be made an example of under the world government forum to which Boris Johnson is rather like Pontius Pilate, just the Administrator to a region.
Or possibly he’s a bit more Herod wanting to kill all the babies?
I’m astonished that the elderly, with compromised immune systems and underlying comorbidities, BUT vaccinated, are still dying.
Apart from good points in comments about the smarter more sceptical people not getting tested regardless of a sniffle – the elephant in the globe is the evidence for high vaccine related deaths – the latest coming from autopsies carried out in Germany showing up to 40% of claimed vaccine caused deaths are genuine and alarming. Do the maths based on 10x ‘official’ reports = a v high number – and across healthy younger people who would not get v sick from covid – this is the crime and it should now be called our. Do not vaccinate anyone under 80 who is healthy https://freewestmedia.com/2021/08/03/german-chief-pathologist-sounds-alarm-on-fatal-vaccine-injuries/
Eradication of Covid Is a Dangerous and Expensive Fantasy It seemed to work in New Zealand and Australia, but now ruinous, oppressive lockdowns are back.
Much of the pathology underlying Covid policy arises from the fantasy that it is possible to eradicate the virus. Capitalizing on pandemic panic, governments and compliant media have used the lure of zero-Covid to induce obedience to harsh and arbitrary lockdown policies and associated violations of civil liberties.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/zero-covid-coronavirus-pandemic-lockdowns-china-australia-new-zealand-11628101945#comments_sector
This headline gives away the lie. Government policy is not, nor has ever been about eliminating the virus. None of the measures has been sensible or effective. It is only about exercising total control over the population.
The reduced mortality and severity can also be explained more simply by lower pathogenicity and lethality of the concomitantly more transmissable bug strain. Jabericitousness is not needed.
I thought this was a good post over at the Telegraph regarding the virus, vaccines and vaccine passports – I can totally relate to what this guy is saying completely and know where he is coming from on this whole covid farce – so I thought I would share it if you hadn’t read it yet …
Mark Smith
5 Aug 2021 10:23PM
I’m white middle aged and a business owner..
If you have actually worked outside your house for the last 18mth you see that all is not what it seems with the pandemic.
I genuinely know of only a handful of people that have had anything more than the mildest symptoms from covid. But an awful lot of people that have felt terrible from the vaccines.
I haven’t been cowering at home, I’ve been working on building sites through the south of England through the whole of it. Why would I want a vaccine, I have been living in a parallel world to what is reported in the news, where life has been normal until I look at the papers
99.9% of the people I have know have got vaccinated so that they can go on holiday. How’s… Read more »
Parallel World, exactly..