Vaccines

Christian Organisation Tells the Unvaccinated They’re Not Welcome

A reader has contacted us to tell us her shock upon discovering that the Christian organisation she supports, United Beach Mission, is requiring the young people who participate in its summer activities to be vaccinated. Here, we publish her correspondence with them.

She first contacted them through a web form:

I was very concerned to see that you are requiring a vaccine for the beach mission. I presume you are unaware that all the current Covid vaccines are only possible because of abortion benefit, and that a number of Christians feel a moral obligation to avoid the vaccine. This article concerns the use of foetal cell lines in the production of the vaccines. 

Furthermore, I personally have never known a vaccine to have caused such a quantity of adverse reactions or deaths. I base that on the Yellow Card scheme Government data and USA VAERS data. There are many doctors who are currently being censored who are saying it would be absolutely immoral for children or young adults to be coerced to take the vaccine. Safety trials do not finish until 2023 and there is no mid to long-term data on safety. I pray that the beach mission will not take this stance as we know a number of young people who would love to do beach mission and have done it in the past.

This was UBM’s reply:

Dear xxxx,

Thank you for your letter which we have read with interest. 

I am sure you will agree that we are in very difficult days. The steps we have reluctantly taken have been done so with the best of intentions and prayerfully before the Lord.

They have been taken in line with the best Christian and medical advice available to us and with the overarching aim of keeping people safe. We are therefore asking those who come on teams this year to have had the vaccine with the aim of keeping others safe. The issue is the risk to people closely sharing living accommodation, and we are seeking to protect and care for people by limiting transmission, isolation and people getting long Covid. We have sought to minimise the risk as much as possible. We accept this is unlikely to be a perfect set of decisions but has been made after much prayer, consultation and discussion.

The stance of UBM on these ethical questions is very much in line with the churches from which our members come and in line with other Christian organisations. UBM is not pro-abortion and we have made this very clear in our teaching many times. 

We accept that that vaccination raises important questions and we fully respect the conscientious objection of other believers in not taking the vaccine. 

There are others however who in good conscience believe that to take a vaccine is the better pro-life decision: we trust that you can appreciate their position.

Ultimately we all have the same Lord to Whom we must answer. 

We thank your for your support for UBM. We ask for your forbearance and prayers that we may be given wisdom and help in undertaking our mission this year.

Yours in Christ,

xxxx, xxxx 

Her reply:

NHS Says 66% of 18-30s Are Vaccinated as of July 18th – But PHE Says its 59%. Don’t They Know?

The NHS has announced that around two thirds of people aged 18-29 in England have now had one vaccine dose. The Telegraph reports.

A third of young adults in England have still not had a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, new figures show.

Around 66.4% of people aged between 18 to 29 had received a first dose as of July 18th, according to estimates from NHS England.

This means 33.6% are likely to be unvaccinated – the equivalent of around 2.9 million adults under 30.

The data shows that vaccine uptake continues to be lower among men than women, with only 65% of men aged 25 to 29 having had a first dose, compared with 71.9% of women in the same age group.

Yet the update from Public Health England, out today, with data up to July 18th, reports the same figure as 59%. It also shows the trend flattening, suggesting it’s unlikely to hit 66% very soon.

What’s going on? This is a difference of around 600,000 people. Don’t they know how many they have vaccinated? How can they disagree by over half a million people?

Stop Press: A reader has got in touch with an explanation.

The PHE figure would appear to be sound see here.

Scroll to the bottom. You’ll see that the 18-24 age group is 59.07% and for 25-29 age group it’s 59%.

The problem is that when the NHS report 66.4% vaccinated this is a deception. For the general population statistic, they arrive at this number by taking total vaccinations and dividing by the population in mid 2019. Of course, many who have had vaccinations have (either due to, or for other reasons) sadly died. (I notice that they’ve just updated this to the mid 2020 population, but it’s still not accurate.)

Meanwhile, the PHE statistic is based on vaccinations given to those in an age group with an NHS number. It’s a reasonable guess that those without an NHS number are less likely to go for an NHS vaccine.

Last time I wrote, I predicted that the error was at least 1.5% and growing.

The statistic you quote suggests the error to be more than 6%.

Applied to the country as a whole, this would mean that only 81.7% of the population has been vaccinated.

The statistic the NHS use is simply not a percentage. It is a deceptive misuse of statistics which is mathematically wrong.

The statistic is so badly wrong, that it is possible that in the future it will be possible to have more than 100% of the population vaccinated.

I believe for this reason that once they start vaccinating children they may switch the statistic.

At the moment, if you are to use the total vaccinations given then you must divide this by the total population in 2021.

Total vaccinations = 46,433,845
Total UK population = 68,265,710

So the total with one dose vaccinated is: 46,433,845/68,265,710 = 68%

This is not as impressive a figure, but it sits in the 60%-80% target we were all told about for herd immunity, and given the additional natural immunity, it’s fair to say that the whole lockdown/rules and nonsense can now come to an end.

We all know, though, that they won’t.

The Great Betrayal

Destroy their education. Destroy their jobs and their job prospects. Destroy their social life, their friendships, their mental health. Force them to work long hours at school or in physically demanding jobs in uncomfortable and breath-inhibiting face masks. This is what our country has done to our young people in the past 16 months.

Why? In an attempt (and not a very successful one) to protect a small minority of mostly elderly folk who are particularly vulnerable to one disease while we wait in limbo to develop a vaccine and roll it out to the vulnerable population.

Then do we give them back their freedom? Not at all. Then we move the goalposts, making freedom conditional on more and more people getting the vaccine. Until we make it to so-called ‘Freedom Day’, a month later than originally planned, and Boris Johnson chooses then to tell young people that their freedom to do the things they enjoy will be dependent on receiving a vaccine.

A vaccine that uses experimental technology and was rushed through trials without waiting for the full safety data (trials which will never now conclude as the control groups have been vaccinated). A vaccine, or rather vaccines, which the authorities now acknowledge increase the risk of dangerous blood clotting and heart conditions, particularly in younger people. Vaccines for which there are now more reports of fatalities in the U.S. than all other vaccines put together for the past 30 years.

Vaccine Safety Update

This is the ninth of the regular round-ups of Covid vaccine safety reports and news compiled by a group of medical doctors who are monitoring developments but prefer to remain anonymous in the current climate (find the eighth one here). By no means is this part of an effort to generate alarm about the vaccines or dissuade anyone from getting inoculated. It should be read in conjunction with the Daily Sceptic‘s other posts on vaccines, which include both encouraging and not so encouraging developments. At the Daily Sceptic we report all the news about the vaccines whether positive or negative and give no one advice about whether they should or should not take them. Unlike with lockdowns, we are neither pro-vaccine nor anti-vaccine; we see our job as reporting the facts, not advocating for or against a particular policy. The vaccine technology is novel and the vaccines have not yet fully completed their trials, which is why they’re in use under temporary and not full market authorisation. This has been done on account of the emergency situation and the trial data was largely encouraging on both efficacy and safety. For a summary of that data, see this preamble to the Government’s page on the Yellow Card reporting system. (Dr Tess Lawrie recently wrote an open letter to Dr June Raine, head of the MHRA, arguing that: “The MHRA now has more than enough evidence on the Yellow Card system to declare the COVID-19 vaccines unsafe for use in humans,” a claim that has been “fact checked” here.) We publish information and opinion to inform public debate and help readers reach their own conclusions about what is best for them, based on the available data.

  • Norway has announced vaccine injury compensation for at least three claims following AstraZeneca vaccination. An Oxford man has called for a review of U.K. Government vaccine injury compensation after he developed Guillain-Barré Syndrome following AstraZeneca vaccination. 
  • A 16 year old boy in Singapore suffered a cardiac arrest when exercising after his Pfizer vaccination.  
  • Some new medical reports exploring endocrine issues following Pfizer vaccination: one looking at a case of necrotising pancreatitis following the second dose of vaccine, and two looking at the development of Graves’ disease in two health care workers in Mexico.
  • The U.K. VITT Organ Donor Study Group has published a report of an analysis of organ donation and transplantation from U.K. donors with VITT (blood clots) to understand the implications. It concludes that transplantation from VITT donors should only proceed with caution due to a variety of possible complications in multiple organs. 
  • The Daily Mail reports that the MHRA has quietly added warnings on Moderna and Pfizer vaccines that they can cause heart damage in rare cases.
  • The Government has uploaded its Technical Briefing for Variants of Concern Number 18, which continues to show that despite rising cases the Delta variant is not currently causing as many fatalities or hospitalisations as the Alpha variant (case fatality rate 0.2% vs 1.9%).
  • Following a FOI request to the MHRA for all vaccine associated deaths between 2010 and 2020, the Daily Expose reports that deaths from Covid vaccines are 407% higher than all cumulative previously reported deaths from other vaccines.
  • ‘Breakthrough’ cases are being reported in Las Vegas, Wales and aboard HMS Queen ElizabethMyLondon reports that London Hospitals are refusing to provide this data.  
  • The Daily Mail reports that Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca are both seeking to modify their vaccines to reduce the incidence of life-threatening blood clots. 
  • VAERS – the American version of the Yellow Card reporting system – released new data bringing the total to 463,457 reports of adverse events following Covid vaccines, including 10,991 deaths and 48,385 serious injuries between December 14th 2020 and July 9th 2021.
  • Suspected adverse events in the U.K. as reported in the media: Kent radio host Jules Serkin and Anthony Shingler (57).

Summary of Adverse Events in the U.K.

According to an updated report published on July 16th (covering the period up to July 7th), the MHRA Yellow Card reporting system has recorded a total of 1,059,307 events based on 314,043 reports. The total number of fatalities reported is 1,470.

  • Pfizer (19.7 million first doses, 11.6 million second doses) now has one Yellow Card in 357 doses, 2.8 adverse reactions per card. Deaths: 1 in 68,640 (456 deaths)
  • AstraZeneca (24.7 million first doses, 22.3 million second doses) has one Yellow Card in 214 doses, 3.6 adverse reactions per card. Deaths: 1 in 47,813 (983 deaths)
  • Moderna (1.1 million first doses) has one Yellow Card in 123 doses, 2.9 adverse reactions per card. Deaths: 1 in 157,143 (7 deaths). (This is a high rate of Yellow Card reports but lower fatal reports compared to the other two vaccines.)

Why Not Donate Our Remaining Vaccines to Other Countries?

In its latest U-turn, the Government has announced that full vaccination will be a “condition of entry” to nightclubs and other crowded venues from the end of September.

The Vaccines Minister, Nadhim Zahawi, had previously ruled out vaccine passports, noting, “That’s not how we do things”. Back in January, Claire Fox even asked him on Twitter, “Can we hold you to this?” and he replied, “Yes you can Claire”.

Given the number of delays there have been to the “full” re-opening, this latest U-turn hardly comes as a surprise. Indeed, the Government’s journey out of lockdown has had more about-turns than a middle-distance swimming event.

Making full vaccination a condition of entry for nightclubs seems designed not only to curtail super-spreading, but also to incentivise more young people to get vaccinated. But why is getting young people vaccinated a Government priority in the first place?

We’ve known since the beginning of the pandemic that COVID deaths among young people are vanishingly rare. As I noted recently, only 25 people aged under 18 in England died of COVID-19 up to February of this year, which equates to a survival rate of 99.995%. And the survival rate for 18–25 year olds isn’t much lower.

Rather than for their own safety, the main justification for vaccinating young people is to reduce the spread of COVID-19, i.e., for older people’s safety. But the vast majority of older people – for whom vaccination does offer clear benefits – are already vaccinated.

According to figures from the ONS, more than 95% of English adults aged over 50 have received both doses of the vaccine. And SARS-COV-2 will almost certainly become endemic, which means that most of us will catch it several times during our lives.  

The best we can do is vaccinate the elderly and vulnerable (check!) and accept that the disease will continue to spread in the population until it reaches an equilibrium.

Of course, young people should have the right to get vaccinated. But assuming that some have decided the benefits simply aren’t worth the risks, the Government ought to refrain from imposing even more costs on them that it already has. (I say this as someone who has had his first dose, and intends to have his second.)

Rather than trying to strong-arm every last 18 year-old into getting a vaccine they don’t need, couldn’t Britain’s remaining vaccine stockpile be put to better use?

There are still millions of elderly and vulnerable people in other countries who lack any immunity against COVID-19. Why not start donating our left-over vaccines to these countries (most of which are much poorer than the UK)?

The risk of death from COVID-19 among 70 year olds is about 300 times higher than among 20 year olds. Hence the benefit from vaccinating an additional 20 year old in Britain must be minuscule relative to the benefit of vaccinating a 70 year old in Africa, Asia or Latin America.

Having offered the vaccine to every high-risk person in Britain, isn’t it time we did something for countries with fewer resources than our own?

Lancet Study Shows Real World Patients Are up to 400% More Likely to Suffer Adverse Events Than Drug Trials Show

Dr Sebastian Rushworth has written today about the serious problem of the underestimation of side-effects in drug trials, which he says should “shake the very foundations of evidence based medicine”.

His article reports on the results of a study recently published in the Lancet Healthy Longevity, funded by the UK Medical Research Council and the Wellcome Trust, which seeks to establish the extent to which drug trials underestimate side-effects by comparing trial data to real world data. The study focuses in particular on blood pressure drugs known as RAAS blockers, which Dr Rushworth explains were chosen because of the number of trials that have been done by different companies. There is no reason the results should not apply equally to other drugs, he says, including Covid vaccines (for which there have been an unprecedented number of adverse event reports despite the trials showing them to be safe).

The results are shocking. The difference was not marginal but out by a factor of three or four.

The real world patients were between 300% and 400% more likely to experience a serious event than the participants in the trials! That is in spite of the fact that the trials, as mentioned above, were using a broader definition of what constituted a serious event. If the trials were representative of reality, then they should have a higher rate of events than is seen in the real world data. Instead they have a rate that is several times lower!

The difference was just as large in trials specifically involving older people, so age differences can’t be the full explanation, he says (though he allows part of it may be that participants in the trials of older people may be healthier and younger than real world patients).

His main explanation, however, is darker. Are the drug companies simply under-reporting adverse events, both in the drug and placebo treatment groups?

Infections in the Vaccinated Overtake Those in the Unvaccinated For the First Time – But the Graph is Removed From the ZOE App Report

Health Secretary Sajid Javid has tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, despite being vaccinated – and he is far from alone. The latest ZOE data shows that, as of July 12th, infections in the vaccinated (with at least one dose) in the U.K. now outnumber those in the unvaccinated for the first time, as the former continue to surge while the latter plummet (see above). (Note that 68% of the population has had at least one vaccine dose, so there are still at this stage disproportionately more new infections in the unvaccinated, though on current trends that may soon change.)

At what point will the Government accept that these vaccines have limited efficacy in preventing infection and transmission, and thus the whole rationale of being vaccinated to protect others – vaccine passports, compulsory vaccination, and so on – is suspect?

The above graph was in yesterday’s report, so I downloaded today’s report (you can get it by signing up to the app and reporting your symptoms) to get the new update. I was dismayed to find the graph was gone. At the bottom, a note explains:

Removed incidence graph by vaccination status from the report as there are very few unvaccinated users in the infection survey, the Confidence Intervals are very wide and the trend for unvaccinated people is no longer representative.

Which I would say is very convenient, just as infections in the vaccinated became the majority. Perhaps ZOE should try to recruit some more unvaccinated people for its survey, so it can continue to report on this as well as have a control group for its vaccine data? That would seem the scientific thing to do, rather than just stop reporting it because it is suddenly “no longer representative”.

It’s doubly odd because Tim Spector, lead scientist on the ZOE app, made the decline among the unvaccinated a feature of his video this week. So the realisation that the trend is “no longer representative” appears to have been rather sudden, even invalidating the contents of a ZOE ‘data release‘ two days earlier.

It seems we will never know how the story ends, which is a shame and a missed opportunity for ZOE.

Infections are Peaking Nationwide as They Fall in the Unvaccinated, Says Professor Tim Spector

Reported positive Covid tests hit a new recent high yesterday of 48,553, confirming for many that their fears of a big exit wave are coming to pass.

However, Tim Spector, lead scientist on the ZOE Covid Study app and Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King’s College London, had another message: according to his data, infections are already peaking.

ZOE data for July 11th (data from the app is always four days behind) showed 32,920 symptomatic infections in the U.K., and this appears to have peaked (R is currently estimated to be around 1) and may already be starting to drop (see above).

Why is this so different to the new daily ‘cases’ reported by the Government, which show no obvious sign of peaking?

Infections Decline in the Unvaccinated as They Surge in the Vaccinated – Demolishing the Argument for Vaccinating Children and Young People

I reported last week on the striking fact that, according to data from the ZOE Covid Symptom study, new symptomatic daily infections appeared to be plateauing in the unvaccinated while they were surging in the vaccinated. The trend has continued since then, with infections now entering decline in the unvaccinated while those in the vaccinated (with at least one dose) continue to surge (see graph above).

Around 67% of the population has received at least one vaccine dose, so the fact that there are still more infections in the smaller unvaccinated group means no conclusion can be drawn from the current figures about the vaccines not being effective. Also, while more people are being vaccinated all the time, that steady trend is nowhere near large enough to account for the sharp changes in infection incidence we see here.

With infections in the unvaccinated already peaking and falling, despite the Delta variant, this drives a coach and horses through arguments for the supposed importance of vaccinating children and hesitant young people – including through inducements like vaccine passports for pubs, clubs and restaurants, now being mooted for the autumn.

Why the vaccinated are having their Delta surge later than the unvaccinated is an interesting question. Is it because the vaccines make them more resistant to infection? Does the age difference help explain it? Or is it something else?

Whatever the explanation, the important point is that without any new restrictions or a big new vaccine push, infections in the unvaccinated are already falling. In the current climate of pushes to extend restrictions, delay ‘Freedom Day’, and vaccinate everyone whether they want it or not, this is hugely significant. It means all those arguments to continue restrictions and pile on the pressure for vaccination because of the Delta variant are complete nonsense.

That new daily infections are still rising in the population as a whole is now because they are rising among the vaccinated, not the unvaccinated. They will likely peak soon in the vaccinated, too, just as they already have in Scotland.

New daily positive cases in Scotland (HMG)

It seems that Delta has done its strange summer thing and will soon exhaust itself like the variants before it.

When it does, is there any chance we can stop panicking every time this not-very-deadly virus has a little variant-driven ripple and go back to living as free people again?

Infections Surge Among the Vaccinated While Those in the Unvaccinated Plateau, Data Shows

One of the few places that publishes daily information on the infection rate in vaccinated and unvaccinated people is the ZOE Covid Symptom study. Above is today’s estimate for the U.K., based on the data submitted by users through the ZOE app, and it shows something very striking. While the infection rate in vaccinated people has been trending well below that in the unvaccinated for months, in the last two weeks the rate in the vaccinated has surged while that in the unvaccinated has plateaued.

We don’t know what is causing this. The vaccinated group is older than the unvaccinated group, which will skew its infection rate lower as older age groups have a lower infection rate anyway (see below). The currently slowing growth in the younger age groups and the increasing growth in the older, more vaccinated age groups is likely to be a reflection of the same underlying infection patterns as those in the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups.