Month: June 2020

Two-Metre Rule Will be Replaced by One-Metre Rule by July 4th "Don't come any closer or you'll be arrested." According to the Times, two metres will be replaced by one metre on July 4th so most pubs and restaurants will be able to reopen. Boris Johnson will announce next week that the two-metre rule will be relaxed from July 4th and that pubs, restaurants, cafés and attractions can reopen as he attempts to revive the economy. Guidance drawn up by the Government and the hospitality industry will also be published as Britain embarks on a “new normal”.Separately, ministers will publish legislation next week to encourage an “al fresco revolution”. Every pub, bar and restaurant will be automatically entitled to serve alcohol for people to drink on the pavement and in the street. The BBC has a similar story. So that's the good news. The bad news is, beer gardens and outdoor dining areas will be patrolled by the police to make sure the one-metre rule is being observed. Let's hope our brave boys in blue don't "take the knee" mid-patrol. It will look like they're proposing to whichever woman happens to be sitting at the nearest table. A Doctor Writes Guardian headline following publication of the PHE report into the susceptibility of the BAME population to COVID-19 One of my ...

by David Crowe FILE PHOTO: A sign assures people that the bar is open during the coronavirus outbreak, outside a pub in Stockholm, Sweden March 26, 2020. REUTERS/Colm Fulton/File Photo Sweden has been a political football in the argument over whether lockdowns work. Lockdown enthusiasts point to the higher death rate than in other Scandinavian countries while skeptics point out that the rate is lower than Italy, Spain and the UK. But the more important question is why the death rate is in the middle. The answer is because Sweden actually did lock down, in the most important way. Before I defend this counter-intuitive position it is important to note that the term “COVID-19 lockdown” is not well defined. In several countries people were confined to their homes, but in other places, such as in my province of Alberta, Canada, people could go out, although they would find that all restaurants, bars, playgrounds, concert halls, swimming pools and shopping malls were closed. In reality every country’s lockdown (and in places like the United States and Canada, every state, province and even city) was different. In Alberta, Canada, when hair salons were opened, massages were still banned, but in Ontario, hair salons were banned but massages were allowed. Sweden only chose two dishes from the lockdown menu: banning large group events ...

British Public No Longer on Double Secret Probation; Just Probation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tfK_3XK4CI Okay, it's an Animal House joke and those who aren't of my vintage might not get it. But at one point, when Dean Vernon is trying to think of ways to nobble Delta House, he says, "There is a little known codicil in the Faber College constitution which gives the Dean unlimited power to preserve order in time of campus emergency." On this basis, he puts the unruly fraternity on "double secret probation". The "alert level" was lowered today from "Level 4" to "Level 3". The UK Government's press release about it is full of "the science" – "The Joint Biosecurity Centre has recommended that... blah, blah, blah." Apparently, the definition of Level 4 is "a COVID-19 epidemic is in general circulation; transmission is high or rising exponentially" and the definition of Level 3 is "a COVID-19 epidemic is in general circulation". Transmission hasn't been "rising exponentially" since around March 18th, according to best estimates, so why has the Government left it until now to lower the "alert level" to 3? They really are making it up as they go along. Presumably, this charade is so Boris can say he's abandoning the absurd two-metre social distancing rule because of "the science". Incidentally, according to the eagle-eyed reader keeping a beady ...

Government Abandons NHSX Contact-Tracing App An Isle of Wight resident poses with his smartphone showing the NHS Covid-19 app. Photograph: AFP via Getty Images According to the Mail, the Telegraph, the Guardian, etc., Matt Hancock has finally given up trying to roll out the NHSX contact-tracing app. Instead, the Government will rely on the method that's been developed by Apple and Google and is already in use in most major European countries. I asked our correspondent, who's been following this slow-motion car crash since the beginning, to give us his take on this U-turn. It was over six weeks ago that this site asked, “If the app is being developed by the NHS, will it actually work?” This week we got our told-you-so moment as the Minister for Innovation, Lord Bethell, told the Science and Technology Committee that he was unable to give a date for the launch, admitting: "I won't hide from you that there are technical challenges with getting the app right." Once the mainstay of the Government’s response to COVID-19, with Matt Hancock announcing a June 1st launch in England, the NHSX contact-tracing app is now a festering embarrassment. Lord Bethell blamed the virus itself for not sticking around long enough for a Government-managed IT project to deliver. Apparently, the relatively low prevalence of the virus means ...

BLM protestors throng Parliament Square the weekend before last Black Lives Matter Protests Haven't Caused "Second Spike" In my Spectator column last week, I expressed my gratitude for Black Lives Matters protestors for exposing the hypocrisy of politicians and public health panjandrums who enthusiastically embraced the protests in spite of warning us a few weeks earlier that we had to remain in our homes at all costs to flatten the curve. After this, who would take seriously their prognostications of doom? They clearly didn't believe their own propaganda. This was my conclusion: At bottom, insisting that the little people remain in their homes unless they had a "reasonable excuse" to be outside was an opportunity for holier-than-thou elites to remind us of their role as custodians of our welfare. So, of course, that "scientific" advice has now been trumped by another even bossier, even more self-righteous form of virtue-signalling — namely, anti-racist sermonising. The fact that the two are completely at odds with each other doesn’t bother them in the slightest. Just so long as they can wag their fingers in our faces as they turn puce with rage, they’re happy. Today brings news of another reason to be grateful to the protestors. I'm thinking of the fact that the daily number of Covid infections is continuing to fall. According ...

Bob's cartoon in the Telegraph on 23rd May 2020 A new law was waved through Parliament late last night, banning gatherings of more than six people, and empowering the police to impose swingeing fines on anyone breaking this new rule. Officially, this was an amendment to the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020. The Express says the new law has been introduced in response to the disorder that broke out in Whitehall on Saturday, although it's worth bearing in mind that protests of more than 100 people are already banned and, to date, the only time there's been an attempt to enforce that prohibition has been when anti-lockdown protestors have gathered in large numbers. When it comes to tens of thousands of people thronging the streets to show their support for Black Lives Matter, the Government has turned a blind eye. Indeed, many politicians, including Sadiq Khan, have celebrated those protests and at least one Labour MP has joined in. It's a sign of how resigned we are to the suspension of our liberties that this new prohibition has caused barely a murmur. It sailed through the House of Commons unopposed, with Labour MPs voting for it. Thankfully, there is a sunset clause in the original Regulations, meaning the 2020 Act expires after six months on September 26th. Latest ...

by Sue Denim UnHerd's Tom Chivers looks deeply into the latest epidemiological modelling A source of frustration for many of us is how journalists don't seem to be learning lessons about academic models. It's as though their need to report on anything new makes them extremely vulnerable to trusting the output of discredited processes and people. Take this piece in UnHerd by Tom Chivers called "What's the point of contact tracing?" It's about a paper entitled "Modelling the health and economic impacts of Population-wide Testing, contact Tracing and Isolation (PTTI) strategies for COVID-19 in the UK". It starts with a brief hint that maybe epidemiology models can be problematic (my emphases in bold): Well, one interesting paper just published by researchers at University College London looks at the impact contact tracing will have on the economy relative to lockdown ...Some caveats: modelling is inherently uncertain. Manheim says that the model is robust — the headline outcomes remain broadly consistent even if the assumptions and inputs are tweaked — but it’s just one paper, and so far not peer-reviewed. Note how the academic's opinion of his own work is given as evidence it's correct, as if this provides any insight. This paper has a whopping 26 authors, yet they apparently couldn't wait for peer review before sending it to journalists. Let's ...

The Grand Reopening https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=XCo_IPMrQ9g&feature=emb_logo The BBC is reporting that queues formed outside shops across the country and the research firm Springboard says that footfall, up until Noon today, was 42% higher than last week. However, worth remembering that the baseline is very low – non-essential shops weren't open this time last week. Overall, numbers were far below the same time last year. This, in spite of John Lewis and Zara cutting prices by up to 70% and the fact that Oxfam says charity shops area a great source of great bargains at the moment due to household clear-outs during lockdown. I travelled across London by tube today and did not get the impression the city was awakening from its long slumber. Boarding a train at East Acton at around 3.40pm, I entered a carriage that was virtually empty. That remained true when I changed from the Central Line to the Northern Line at Bank and, when I got out at Moorgate, the streets were largely deserted. As you'd expect, nearly everyone on the train was wearing a mask, although not everyone on the street. On my return, I got out at Wood Lane and was able to look over into the Westfield shopping centre. That, too, seemed pretty lifeless. I was disappointed to see two masked police officers checking people ...

by Nicholas Booth The author pictured before his recent visit to Croydon University Hospital, ground zero for nosocomial infections You really ought to go back to work, you know. The rewards massively outweigh the risks – which I’m guessing are pretty minimal for most of you. I base my hunch on the fact that I survived four days in Croydon University Hospital, when it was supposedly one of the most dangerous hospitals in the country, at a time when my body had no defence against infection. I’m 59 and, as will be revealed, probably have little in the way of an immune system, which is weird because – Bowel cancer and Pyoderma Gangrenosum aside – I feel fine. So if I can survive the exposure, then most people can – according to my unscientific, anecdotal argument. I’m willing to stand corrected – that’s what the comments box is for. Here are the variables first. In April, one in four patients at "Maydie Hospital" (as locals call it) were dying from coronavirus. At least that’s what their death certificate said: the cause of death often seems open to interpretation. I have two conditions that handicap my body’s defences. The chemotherapy used to arrest my cancer will kill all other types of rapidly-dividing cells, which wipes out your body’s defence mechanisms, such ...

Quite a short update today I'm afraid. It was my youngest son's 12th birthday yesterday and being with him and making sure he's having a nice time have kept me busy. Longer one tomorrow, I hope. Moral Relativism and the Collapse of the Rule of Law A riot policeman faces a group of rioters in London in 2011 This is a blog post I wrote for the Telegraph in the immediate aftermath of the riots that engulfed many of England’s cities for four days in the summer of 2011. It was published on 11th August 2011. I thought I'd post it today, given the disturbances we witnessed in London yesterday. Towards the beginning of Lord of the Flies, William Golding’s masterpiece about a group of teenage boys marooned on a desert island, a scene takes place in which the most vicious of the boys, Roger, throws stones at a younger boy whose sandcastle he’s just knocked down: Roger gathered a handful of stones and began to throw them. Yet there was a space round Henry, perhaps six yards in diameter, into which he dare not throw. Here, invisible yet strong, was the taboo of the old life. Round the squatting child was the protection of parents and school and policemen and the law. Roger’s arm was conditioned by a civilization ...