Day: 16 June 2020

Bob's cartoon in the Telegraph on 23rd May 2020 A new law was waved through Parliament late last night, banning gatherings of more than six people, and empowering the police to impose swingeing fines on anyone breaking this new rule. Officially, this was an amendment to the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020. The Express says the new law has been introduced in response to the disorder that broke out in Whitehall on Saturday, although it's worth bearing in mind that protests of more than 100 people are already banned and, to date, the only time there's been an attempt to enforce that prohibition has been when anti-lockdown protestors have gathered in large numbers. When it comes to tens of thousands of people thronging the streets to show their support for Black Lives Matter, the Government has turned a blind eye. Indeed, many politicians, including Sadiq Khan, have celebrated those protests and at least one Labour MP has joined in. It's a sign of how resigned we are to the suspension of our liberties that this new prohibition has caused barely a murmur. It sailed through the House of Commons unopposed, with Labour MPs voting for it. Thankfully, there is a sunset clause in the original Regulations, meaning the 2020 Act expires after six months on September 26th. Latest ...

by Sue Denim UnHerd's Tom Chivers looks deeply into the latest epidemiological modelling A source of frustration for many of us is how journalists don't seem to be learning lessons about academic models. It's as though their need to report on anything new makes them extremely vulnerable to trusting the output of discredited processes and people. Take this piece in UnHerd by Tom Chivers called "What's the point of contact tracing?" It's about a paper entitled "Modelling the health and economic impacts of Population-wide Testing, contact Tracing and Isolation (PTTI) strategies for COVID-19 in the UK". It starts with a brief hint that maybe epidemiology models can be problematic (my emphases in bold): Well, one interesting paper just published by researchers at University College London looks at the impact contact tracing will have on the economy relative to lockdown ...Some caveats: modelling is inherently uncertain. Manheim says that the model is robust — the headline outcomes remain broadly consistent even if the assumptions and inputs are tweaked — but it’s just one paper, and so far not peer-reviewed. Note how the academic's opinion of his own work is given as evidence it's correct, as if this provides any insight. This paper has a whopping 26 authors, yet they apparently couldn't wait for peer review before sending it to journalists. Let's ...