Some people are killed, or die early, due to the Covid vaccines. But how many? In an earlier article I analysed U.K. death data, adjusting them to allow for mortality displacement and the absence of flu to estimate that around 23,000 people may have died due to the vaccines. This was similar to an estimate arrived at separately using fatal Yellow Card reports and assuming an under-reporting factor of 10.
Now, analysis of non-Covid death data from Denmark adds further support for this estimate, showing increases in non-Covid excess mortality associated with vaccination campaigns at a similar level.
By comparing non-Covid excess mortality (NCEM) rates in Denmark and the U.K., I find that they closely resemble each other at approximately 250 excess fatalities per million vaccines administered, i.e., a fatality rate of 0.025% or one every 4,000 doses.
I picked Denmark to analyse next because of its completely different Covid mortality history from the U.K. during the 2020 portion of the pandemic. The similarity in the NCEM rates since the start of the vaccine rollout despite the two countries’ very different prior Covid rates indicates that it is not related to Covid infection symptoms and longer-term effects.
The chart below shows the Covid mortality history in both countries. The U.K. data have been scaled to allow for the difference in population size.
The next two charts show that, despite radically different experiences of Covid spread and mortality in 2020, the NCEM rates for the period of the vaccination campaigns in each country were very similar. Note that the data have been adjusted as explained below.
In fact, if we plot them on the same chart, scaling the U.K. data once again, we can see how similar these datasets really are.
The Danish and U.K. figures (once adjusted and scaled) both show a rise from about 1,000 excess deaths at the start of the vaccination campaigns to about 4,000 excess deaths now. This is an increase of 3,000 deaths after approximately 12 million vaccine doses have been administered i.e., 0.025% or one every 4,000 doses.
The U.K. data I am using here are the same as those used in my previous analysis, only this time an adjustment has also been applied for overcounting Covid deaths owing to not all reported Covid deaths being actually ‘from Covid’ i.e., with COVID-19 as underlying cause. As illustrated in the chart below, the weekly reported ONS data indicate the ratio between deaths ‘from’ and ‘with’ Covid varies widely, from about 60% to around 90%.
For comparison purposes, the equivalent ratio for ‘other respiratory diseases’ varies between only about 15% and 35% i.e., only 15-35% of deaths with a non-Covid respiratory disease are recorded as having that disease as underlying cause.
For this analysis I applied a standardised rate of 65%. This rate was also applied to the Danish data on the assumption that the two countries will be similar.
The Danish data were not, however, corrected for the near absence of influenza or reductions in other respiratory disease during the Covid pandemic, as the U.K data were.
Since flu deaths in earlier years made a significant contribution to the non-Covid five-year average, not adjusting for them likely explains the apparent exaggerated drop-off in mortality seen in the Danish data in the early weeks of 2021 when the vaccination campaign started, and again in the early weeks of 2022.
In summary, we find a high rate of excess non-Covid related mortality correlated to vaccination campaigns that needs to be thoroughly investigated. It cannot be ‘brushed under the carpet’ as just a peculiar anomaly in the U.K., as similar effects are seen in at least one other European country. This analysis, and its potential seriousness, are corroborated by the similarity in the mortality rate, at one every 4,000 doses.
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