The mainstream narrative concerning England’s national lockdowns is that each one arrested a steep upward trend in daily infections that would have otherwise continued unabated. Infections were rising; we had a lockdown; and infections started falling.
However, there are several reasons to doubt this narrative. To begin with, the international evidence suggests the impact of lockdowns on COVID-19 outcomes was marginal at best. They only ‘worked’ – in the sense of halting a nascent epidemic – in a small number of geographically peripheral Western countries, like Australia and New Zealand.
Next, the statistician Simon Wood crunched the numbers on the three English lockdowns, and found that infections were already declining before each one was introduced. His analysis is consistent with the time-course of infections reconstructed by researchers on the REACT antibody survey.
What’s more, the economist David Paton identified seven separate indicators, each showing that infections peaked before the third English lockdown. Indeed, lockdowns are often imposed around the peak of the curve, as governments come under increasing pressure to ‘do something’ about rising case numbers. (Back in July, Chris Whitty told MPs the epidemic was probably already in retreat when the first full lockdown was imposed.)
The way lockdowns are assumed to work is by reducing the number of interactions that result in viral transmission. However, distinguishing their impact from that of voluntary changes in behaviour is no easy feat (see my recent interview with Philippe Lemoine).
What’s more, since transmission is driven by ‘superspreaders’ (those few individuals who account for a disproportionate share of infections), the relationship between interactions and infections isn’t necessarily linear. For example, reducing interactions by 50% may reduce infections by much less than 50%.
Rather than trying to tease out the effect of lockdowns on infections, one can look at their impact on mobility. If lockdowns are what account for the curves peaking and then falling, one would expect to see sudden declines in mobility just after lockdowns are introduced. And you’d expect these declines to be sustained until case numbers had come down substantially.
Is that what we see? We know from the Google mobility index that there was a rapid decline in mobility during March of 2020, though that decline began seven to 10 days before the first lockdown commenced (on March 24th). This is shown in the chart below:
Retail mobility fell at the start of the second lockdown, rose slightly at the end, and unsurprisingly plunged on Christmas day, and then again on New Years Day. (This zig-zag is somewhat obscured on the chart because I used seven-day moving averages.) Though retail mobility remained low in early January, there was no sharp decline at the start of the third lockdown.
Residential mobility is more-or-less the mirror image of workplace mobility, so it will suffice to describe the latter. The index fell during the second lockdown, though by nowhere near the same amount as before the first. It then plunged over the festive period, before dropping slightly at the start of January’s lockdown.
Of the three lockdowns, the second had the clearest impact on mobility. Though discerning the impact of the third is difficult, as parts of England were already under quite heavy restrictions, owing to the Tier system. And one could argue that it exerted an effect by keeping mobility low, rather by causing it to fall further.
On the other hand, average mobility between December 24th and January 1st was actually lower than it had been during the second lockdown. Of course, there is the added complication of household mixing around Christmas and New Year, which isn’t captured by indices of overall mobility.
In an unpublished paper, Harry Shepherd and colleagues were able to quantify mobility in a novel way, using Facebook data. They computed the average co-location probability for each U.K. region. This is the average probability that a user whose home location is in that region spends at least one-minute in the same “level 16 Bing tile” (a small unit of area) as another user from a different home location.
They then plotted these average co-location probabilities over time, as shown in the chart below. Interestingly, the overall pattern is very similar to the chart above.
There was a dramatic decline in co-location probabilities in March, which largely preceded the first lockdown. There was a small decline during the second lockdown, and then another small decline during the third lockdown. (Note that the authors seem to have mislabelled the third lockdown, which began somewhat earlier than their shading indicates.)
Looking at both charts, it’s clear that mobility remained substantially below the baseline throughout 2020 and the first part of 2021, even during periods with relatively few restrictions in place. This suggests an important role for voluntary changes in behaviour.
There were declines in mobility associated with the lockdowns, but it’s not clear that these had a large, independent effect on the epidemic’s trajectory. March’s steep decline largely preceded Lockdown 1.0, whereas the declines in November and January were much less pronounced.
While lockdown-induced declines in mobility might have caused infections to fall slightly faster than otherwise, it’s difficult to see how they could have single-handedly turned a rising curve into a falling curve. The pace and timing of various events was, I suspect, driven mostly by voluntary changes in behaviour and the build-up of immunity in the population.
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.
That is the billion dollar question
What is weird is that I found this article via Twitter. It isn’t on the DS home page. What I see on the home page though are 2 identical article links to the crown jewels Roger Watson article. Hmmm….It’s because I was slagging off the spying spooks isn’t it? lol
I don’t understand this Mogs.
Do you mean my post? Just earlier this article wasn’t here on the home page. I could only access it via an external link from someone’s Twitter page. Must’ve just been yet another mystery glitch.
Oh I see.
I must admit the Crown Jewels article appeared as a double entry most of the afternoon.
Probably just that the homepage hadn’t been updated when the article was added to the site.
Good article. Just immensely frustrated it’s still only in publications likes of the Daily Sceptic and TCW and not in publications like The Telegraph yet. We know why of course.
It is quite incredible, isn’t it, that the Telegraph have been meticulous in their investigations and exposure of the various other scandals, like the Lockdown Files, the Twitter Files, Party Gate, Snog Gate, etc. but is silent on vax harms. I am now firmly of the opinion that if you find some significant development to be true, while at the same time we get radio silence in the mainstream about the same topic, you can be certain there’s some cover up going on further up the “chain of command”.
Why aren’t they investigating why their policy is killing people? I wonder.
It’s a mystery, isn’t it…
Why investigate when you already know the answer.
You may recall recently I posted about the new ‘SKYCovian’ Covid jab that has been authorized by the MHRA, and I was wondering why it stated on the gov website that it was to be a ”primary vaccine”. Fortunately Prof Fenton has looked at this in more detail and it is supposed to be for developing countries. So why is the MHRA giving it the go-ahead? Because it will also be used on the British public but they just won’t know what they’re getting. The short 2min vid he shares has more info. Prof Fenton reveals some concerning findings and I’m glad he’s going to challenge June Raine on this and raise these issues;
”You state that this vaccine was approved “after meeting the MHRA’s required safety, quality and effectiveness standards”. Yet your own guidance document makes clear that there is no efficacy data, and minimal safety data for this vaccine. So what exactly are the required safety, quality and effectivness standard?
As the vaccine is primarily intended for people previously unvaccinated why did you authorise its use for a country like the UK that is highly vaccinated?
Are you dispensing the vaccine to already vaccinated people in the UK? if so what studies have been performed to show that it is safe and effective to be used in people previously vaccinated with AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Moderna and other vaccine combinations?
As the vaccine is licensed to over 18’s, and appears to be not recommended to women who are pregnant or breast feeding, what information do you have about the effect of the vaccine on women who become pregnant some time after vaccination?
What information do you have about the impact on sperm count of men who receive this vaccine?
What studies have been performed on the sensitivity to safety and efficacy of the different dose accuracies that will inevitably result from the complex mixing process?
Did the change of role of the MHRA from regulator to enabler impact your decision to authorise this vaccine?”
https://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/p/the-new-skycovion-vaccine-more-questions
First I have heard of SKYCovian, despite living in a developing country. Vaccine uptake here is minuscule, even if you want it most has expired or has been returned to sender. Couldn’t give it away to the rest of Africa. It’s over folks.
You are on the Billy and Klaus ‘to do pile.’
Probably because a lot of Africa hasn’t wanted the death jabs and fared better as a result. However, I noted that there are some mini mRNA factories en route to, think it was Uganda…or was it Kenya, somewhere in Africa anyway, courtesy of BioNTech.
Oops, it was Rwanda;
https://merylnass.substack.com/p/more-on-the-mini-vaccine-factories
The government is refusing to investigate because it will reveal their culpability
The following is from Dr Sam White’s Telegram channel & relates to a friend of his’ experience at a large A&E in East Birmingham UK. Bear in mind that the population in this particular area has a relatively young demographic overall & life expectancy lower than the UK average.
“These stories are very sad indeed. My recent visit to A&E was a stark reminder that so many healthy people who got jabbed and suddenly and unexpectedly died. During my recent 6 hour stint at Heartlands Hospital Accident and Emergency Department following my recent freak accident on the golf course. I was tended initially by 2 nurses. When they asked me what I did work wise and I told them that I coached a lot of doctors, scientists and lawyers who have been censored, de-platformed and suspended for speaking the truth. They wanted to know more so we talked about the experimental mRNA jabs, one nurse said that she had got one jab only and regretted it and that she had been bullied and coerced into this. The other nurse told me that she was also being bullied to get it, so she managed to book some holiday time she was owed off, when she returned the NHS mandate policy had been reversed and that way she avoided being jabbed. I asked if they had seen a lot of ‘jab related injuries’ they said ‘lots’ but a lot of the doctors were still in denial and most of the injuries were not being linked to the jabs. They told me that over half the nurses in their hospital were awake! Later, I got chatting to the doctor who stitched up my head wound and had a similar conversation. She told me she was looking to retire early because of the recent excess stress. She said “I am stressed out by seeing 3 to 4 young men every week with sudden, often fatal heart issues! Before the covid jabs we would see 3 to 4 young men with cardiac issues in a whole year, now it is every week!” She had a tear in her eye as she spoke and I gave her a hug. “Please finish writing your book and help the new leaders we need, I have a young son and I want him to have a future.” It was very moving. I told her I would and I thanked her for stitching up my head as I left.”
Bloody hell. That brought a lump to the throat.
It’s a tough read. I used to work that community patch, young strokes in that age range were incredibly rare so would fit with the low numbers pre bioweapon injection quoted by the awake doctor.
Hang on, she’s seeing cardiac issues in young men up from about 1 per quarter to 52 per quarter! So a 50 times increase?!
And presumely these young men were jabbed some time ago, so these numbers indicate the damage that is building up over time.
It’s horrendous. This indicates that a 44% increase in heart deaths is a gross underestimate for this part of Birmingham.
But why are they not speaking up? Why this continued wall of silence?
If the health professionals are not speaking up, what are they doing? Continuing to vaccinate, whilst not vaccinating themselves?
The mind boggles.
Myra those are really pertinent questions which I’d love to have the answers for. Some may be raising questions, sowing seeds by asking awkward questions. The fact that more staff are waking up is a positive thing. Change can only come about when there is a critical mass in favour of the change.
The biggest problem is the management who will be right behind the evil agenda.
Because medicine is a ‘Guild’. The Guild is controlled by a relatively small club of Senior Consultants and Professors, who think with one mind. They are at the top of the ladder, no further to go except to retire with a knighthood and maybe become an ‘advisor’ to Government or Big Pharma, and so will happily brown-nose the Government goons and support whatever the official narrative is.
The medical profession has been captured by the pharmaceutical industry, which lavishes billions on its members in grants for research, grants to attend conferences, support and help to write and have published papers (essential to have on your CV when applying for a new position), money for local meetings and sponsorship for larger conferences, donations for and gifts of equipment particularly for private practitioners. In return for these Earthly rewards, all they have to do is sign over their soul to the Devil.
The path up the career ladder depends entirely on the good graces of these few. Any junior doctor, registrar who does not toe the official line will not be allowed to advance. Nursing is different as the profession is not controlled by a handful of higher-ups.
The same is true for science, which is why although there is great deal of dissent about the climate change scam, all but a few dare speak out.
A friend’s brother-in-law works in a large hospital in Liverpool. She told me he has said they are seeing a huge increase in myocarditis cases.
It’s so sad. These live needlessly damaged or lost because of a psychopathic reign of terror unleashed by the government & Parliament, the defence of the people being one of it’s primary stated objectives…. They failed abjectly at that.
“The Office for Health Improvements and Disparities reports that heart failure deaths…”
WTF are these lot and who gave birth to them?
“Mike Batayeh, known for playing the manager of a laundromat turned meth lab in Breaking Bad, has died aged 52, US media reported.
The actor and comedian’s family told TMZ he died at home in Michigan in his sleep on 1 June after a heart attack.
Batayeh did not have a history of heart issues, according to the family, describing his death as very sudden.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65851444
There seems to be quite a lot of famous people dying much younger than expected for no apparent reason.
When I finished watching the Belgian series Public Enemy on Netflix ( 3 series in total ), at the end they showed that three of the cast members had died. I searched to see what I could find, all of them were in their 50s and I could only find the cause of death of one which was a heart attack. You occasionally might watch a series and see one ”In memory of..” because a person from the show died but I’ve never seen three, especially only in their 50s. Call me paranoid but whenever anyone dies suddenly or decades before the expected end of their life I always think the obvious but the problem is this particular detail is never disclosed publicly is it, so we’re just left wondering.
Dr Peter McCullough explains that two danger points for the jabbed are adrenaline-related activities (which is why so many professional sportsmen have keeled over) and for anyone it’s the the stage of sleep when you are starting to wake up and the body is preparing, naturally, for increased activity.
It’s a ticking time-bomb every time you go to sleep.
Let me get this straight folks..
So we know the vaccines are a kill job (Moderna patent on key part of SARS-COV-2 granted in 2016, evidence of gain of function research via EcoHealth Alliance).
We know they knew what they were doing (serious adverse events at a rate of 1 in 800 per Pfizer’s own clinical research data).
So we know they are murderers. Sick. Psychopaths. Evil.
And we now expect to do what, reveal to the population that they are heinous criminals?
By the way, anyone in the ‘oh no this was a cock-up and not a conspiracy, there’s no plan’ – please do challenge any of the above, by all means.
In short – our own governments have plotted to murder us. Us and our children.
We are at war with the deep state.
“We are at war with the deep state.”
I and one or two others on here have been banging this drum for many months.
My default assumption now is that any announcement or policy that emanates from the state and its cronies is designed to or likely to harm me and my family
Absolutely agree.
That’s a pretty sound position to take tof. I also take the view that any announcement from the state or its cronies will be lies.
Yes. We are at war, have been for some considerable time – The People v the Government.
Those in Government know this which is why the programme of fear where we are moved from one potential doom to the next to distract us, and why the media has been co-opted to broadcast and amplify the message and why any dissent is silenced.
Unfortunately not enough of the People realise their Government allied with a global coalition is waging war on them… but there is some hope, as more and more are waking up.
Sound like a conspiracy theory? We’ll see.
5th generation warfare, we don’t even know who the enemy is.
Oh we do alright.
Anyone who actively promotes and facilitates the Net Zero / CBDC / Digital ID / Covid pass / Facial recognition / Social credit score agenda is an enemy and wants to completely subjugate and exterminate us.
Why else would they be giving a bio-weapon to millions of innocent people?
Add Universal Basic Income, 5G & LED street lighting to your excellent summary list.
Add in unifrog, a ghastly personal data logger school children are forced to sign up to, school records databases and university loans, a treasure trove of data, surveillance and tracking.
Government.
Cock-up is one off incident; conspiracy is serial incidents. Twice is coincidence, thrice is conspiracy.
https://www.farminguk.com/news/dairy-farmers-urged-to-look-out-for-heat-stress-as-temperatures-soar_62765.html
Won’t be long now and we’ll have cows dying of Sudden Cardiac Arrest.
NFU are also now insuring against “heat stress.”
Jesus wept. So what do they do with their herds over in India, Africa..basically all of the places in the world that are consistently hotter than the UK? Talk about insulting people’s intelligence..
You couldn’t make this shyte up Mogs.
Direct Energy Weapons being used against livestock? That’s what 5G is…. It’s what those nasty LED street lights are too. Slowly raise the temperature to cause harm, like the frog being slowly boiled.
Wondered why they were so busy building 5G towers in rural areas during lockdown?
Foot and Mouth or another outbreak of BSE.
https://www.farminguk.com/news/elon-musk-slams-irish-climate-plan-to-cull-thousands-of-cows_62721.html
Who knew about this?
Elon Musk has come out in favour of Irish farmers and has condemned the slaughter of their herds.
Welcome news.
Please don’t fall for this Musk guff.
I know what you mean but for now this is good news.
I have no doubt Musk is for Musk. However, any contrary voice against the chaos and madness is welcome.
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/migration-watch-hero-deserves-all-the-support-we-can-give/
Alp Mehmet’s Migration Watch and his petition calling on the government to get a grip of the scandal that is Bliar’s legacy.
I’m sure we can all get behind this.
Dr Peter McCullough explains why, here:
https://petermcculloughmd.substack.com/p/dr-mccullough-testifies-in-the-pennsylvania?r=ylgqf&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
The Government knows full well what’s happening, and why. But it doesn’t dare admit the cause, any more than the US, Australian, NZ or Canadian Governments will, who are experiencing similar levels of excess mortality.
Sanctimonious tosh puts it far too kindly. It’s a view taken by a load of cowardly lickspittles who are doing everything they can to hide their liability for killing people.
If you already know the answer, why would you investigate?
Why is the Govt refusing to investigate? Because those in Govt, past and still, their lackeys and cronies in Big Pharma would have to take the blame and most likely criminal prosecution.
Why do you ask?
Put these 4 pieces of logic together:
… And what is the most obvious conclusion we can come to? I won’t insult anyone’s intelligence by revealing the answer!