One in 16 U.K. Businesses Could Close In Next Quarter

A million jobs are at risk due to the ending of lockdown support schemes, with a new study suggesting that one in 16 U.K. firms are poised to close permanently in the next quarter following more than a year of forced temporary closures. The Guardian has the story.

One in 16 firms say that they are now at risk of closure in the next quarter, the study by the LSE’s Programme on Innovation and Diffusion (POID) has found. While it marks a major rise in confidence since the worst depths of the pandemic in January, there are warnings that the risk to so many workers coincides with the planned end of the furlough jobs scheme and a cut to universal credit by £20 a week.

There are also concerns that some industries are still being hit disproportionately by the fallout from Covid, with the entertainment and travel industries still making heavier use of the furlough scheme than other sectors. The number of people being paid through the U.K. scheme stood at 1.9 million at the end of June and it is due to close at the end of next month.

Huge uncertainty remains over the economy’s direction in the next six months. While confidence has risen, there are warnings over complacency. Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who founded the Alliance for Full Employment group to promote jobs protection and work creation programmes, said “a new jobs crisis point is approaching as furlough ends”. …

Peter Lambert, one of the authors of the POID research, said the end of the furlough scheme would be “an inflection point” where the economy could go either way. He added: “I think there will probably need to be some continuation of support in specific sectors. My bet is there’ll be more targeted support, because unless the economy really, really picks up, there’s going to be lots of people still left in the lurch in specific sectors.”

There are also concerns over the impact on families switching from furlough support to universal credit, especially as the £20-a-week increase brought in at the start of the pandemic is to be withdrawn this autumn.

Worth reading in full.

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