There follows a guest post from our in-house doctor, formerly a senior medic in the NHS, who says the widely trailed tsunami of hospitalisations has not only failed to arrive after ‘Freedom Day’, but we seem to be on the downslope of the ‘third wave’.
The philosopher Soren Kierkegaard once remarked: “Life can only be understood backwards, but must be lived forwards.” I have been reflecting on that comment, now we are three weeks since the inappropriately named July 19th ‘Freedom Day’. Readers will remember the cacophony of shrieking from assorted ‘health experts’ prophesying certain doom and a tidal wave of acute Covid admissions that would overwhelm our beleaguered NHS within a fortnight. Representatives from the World Health Organisation described the approach as “epidemiologically stupid”. A letter signed by 1,200 self-defined experts was published in the Lancet predicting imminent catastrophe.
Accordingly, this week I thought I should take a look at how the apocalypse is developing and then make some general observations on the centrality of trust and honesty in medical matters.
Let’s start with daily admissions to hospitals from the community in Graph One. Daily totals on the blue bars, seven-day rolling average on the orange line. Surprisingly the numbers are lower than on July 19th. How can that be?
Perhaps there are more patients stacking up in hospitals – sicker patients tend to stay longer and are hard to discharge, so the overall numbers can build up rather quickly. So, Graph Two shows Covid inpatients up to August 5th. Readers should note that Graph Two includes patients suffering from acute Covid (about 75% of the total) plus patients in hospital for non-Covid related illness, but testing positive for Covid (the remaining 25%). How strange – numbers seem to be falling, not rising. This does not fit with the hypothesis – what might explain this anomalous finding?
Maybe the numbers of patients in ICU might be on the increase – after all, both the Beta variant and the Delta variant were said to be both more transmissible and more deadly than the Alpha variant. Graph Three shows patients in ICU in English Hospitals up to August 5th. It shows a similar pattern to Graph Two – a small fall in overall patient numbers in the last two weeks. I looked into the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre ICU audit report up to July 30th. This confirms the overall impression from the top line figures. Older patients do not seem to be getting ill with Covid. Over half the admissions to ICU with Covid have body mass indices over 30. Severe illness is heavily skewed to patients with co-morbidities and the unvaccinated. Generally speaking, the patients have slightly less severe illness, shorter stays and lower mortality so far.
Finally, we look at Covid related deaths since January 1st, 2021, in Graph Four. A barely discernable increase since the beginning of April.
So, whatever is going on with respect to the progress of the pandemic, the widely trailed tsunami of hospitalisations has not arrived yet – in fact, we seem to be on the downslope of the ‘third wave’.
Often in an experiment or scientific investigation, the observed results don’t fit the expected outcome. On such occasions, it’s wise to revisit the base assumptions and re-examine the raw data to see if we made a measurement error or a calculation error.
Rather helpfully, last week the NHS did release some information in relation to the numbers of patients in hospital ‘with Covid’. Regular readers may recall I wrote about it. In essence, the revelation was that the NHS numbers in Graph Two consistently over-estimate the numbers of patients with acute Covid illness by about 25%.
The NHS were only able to provide data back to June 18th, 2021, but their clarification cleared up a point that had been bothering me since I wrote an analysis of a large data set published in the Lancet looking at Covid inpatients between January and August 2020. The analysis showed that 25% of the patients recorded as Covid positive last year did not require oxygen in hospital. I thought that very odd but maybe the explanation is that the NHS has been overestimating the numbers of acute Covid patients by about a quarter since the pandemic began. There may be other explanations, but the numbers are remarkably consistent. If anything, the corrected raw data suggests we have a lower burden of Covid related disease than we thought a few weeks ago.
This brings me to my next point – the absent signal. When a predicted signal fails to show up, we need to ask why. Did we miss it? Were we looking in the wrong place? Or were our assumptions wrong in the first place?
As the numbers don’t support the imminent catastrophe hypothesis, I expected to see a signal from the ‘health experts’ revising their predictions and explaining the experimental error which led them to frame an incorrect hypothesis. So far, I haven’t seen that signal – admittedly I don’t watch TV so could have been looking in the wrong place. I did notice Professor Ferguson predicting 100,000 cases per day (by which he meant positive tests on largely asymptomatic people) by the end of July. Oddly a couple of days later he was back on the airwaves commenting that the pandemic was over. These statements seem to me to be contradictory – yet there was no explanation as to how he came to the 100,000 figure, nor as to what had changed to make him revise his assessment so rapidly.
Readers may think I’m being flippant and overly critical of our public health scientists, but this is an important point. In medical science, the ability to critically assess information and admit errors is very important. Dogmatic adherence to a particular belief in the face of evidence to the contrary can be dangerous as it compounds error and makes repeated mistakes more likely. Given the hugely significant consequences of the advice given by Ferguson and his confederates in SAGE and the confidence with which they make predictions which turn out to be incorrect, this absent signal is crucially significant.
While on the subject of data interpretation and presentation, I noticed the new NHS Chief Amanda Pritchard was on the media round speaking of the high percentage of younger people currently in hospital with Covid – her key point being that people aged 18-34 made up 20% of admissions compared to five per cent in January. For some reason, she forgot to put her remarks in context – Graph Four and Graph Five provide that context.
Graph Four shows a clustered column of daily admissions by age. Readers can clearly see overall admissions running at just over 600 a day compared to over 3,500 in mid-January and that the slope of the curve on the right-hand side is downwards.
Graph Five shows the percentage breakdown of admissions by age. Clearly, the percentage of younger people has increased as a proportion of the total, but this is because the numbers of older people admitted for Covid has collapsed. There are no greater numbers of younger people being admitted per day than there were in January, but far fewer older people. Hence the relative percentage of younger people has risen as the overall total has fallen.
Why does this matter? The NHS argue that Covid still presents hazards to younger people and that selective presentation of statistics and the use of frightening adverts in the press are a justifiable way of persuasion. It is a classic ‘ends justifies the means’ argument. I thought medicine had left this paternalistic (or should I say ‘nannying’) mindset a long time ago – but as with many things, I find I’m mistaken. There is a reasonable argument to be made for Covid vaccination in young adults – but I don’t think selective use of data is a sensible way to make it, because eventually, it damages trust in important civic institutions. In one of my first posts on the Lockdown Sceptics website, over a year ago, I commented on the tendency of the NHS to misuse or ‘manage’ the presentation of data. I think that concern has been borne out over the last 12 months.
The Government may take the view that we have no time for such philosophical niceties as we remain in the midst of a crisis. I think the numbers refute this, and that trust is fundamental to the functions of a democratic society. To return to Kierkegaard: “There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.”
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
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Excellent summary.
It’s as plain as the nose on your face the threat has passed.
So we must demand of the government, media, large corporations and establishment medics just WHY the relentless compusion to lockdown (travel, work restrictions, education constraints etc) and WHY the coerced vaccination of anyone below the age of 75?
Deaths aren’t the issue – power is.
Enough is enough.
“It’s as plain as the nose on your face the threat has passed”
The ‘threat’ was never significantly more than the majority of seasonal infections pose.
Yes great summary from someone at the coal face. Oh wait there is no coal, new phrase required.
Coronavirus: You’ve been brainwashed (Here’s how they did it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pa6LszZa7pg
Stand in South Hill Park Bracknell every Sunday from 10am meet fellow anti lockdown freedom lovers, keep yourself sane, make new friends and have a laugh.
Join our Stand in the Park – Bracknell – Telegram Group
http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell
There has never been a ‘cisis’. Certainly beyond June 2020 and the shipping of ill old hospital patients into care homes.
Sorry, but these articles now make me feel sick.
D’accord; the key date, imho, is that when HMG relegated this virus as follows, from .gov.uk (my emphasis);
Status of COVID-19
As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious disease (HCID) in the UK. There are many diseases which can cause serious illness which are not classified as HCIDs.
The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.
The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.
The World Health Organization (WHO) continues to consider COVID-19 as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), therefore the need to have a national, coordinated response remains and this is being met by the government’s COVID-19 response.
We all know, now, that this government’s health policy’s developed by PHE and delivered by the NHS caused a wave of deaths in Care homes in the spring of 2020, and this setting with Hospitals, accounted for the biggest source of acquired CV19 infections – and it was described as a ‘wave”, a disgraceful lie because it was the only outcome of a deliberate act for which Hancock has been proved to be responsible for his decision to allow untreated elderly patients back into a setting where Care Home staff were lethally exposed. We now know that in the US, Fauci forced the treatment of CV19 solely by Remdesivir, a drug he knew ,at the time he instigated its use, to be ineffective, with serious lethal side effects; the drug was not FDA approved having failed two prior very small trials one of which was funded by the manufacturer of ….the drug. This decision, together with the denial of other preventittive drugs such as Ivermectin, the lethal use of ventilators and the shortage of dialysis machines, killed many many tens of thousands of people; the resulting death toll was then used as justification for the ( increasingly mandated) use of an inadequately tested mRNA gene therapy which is being masqueraded as a vaccine. In the UK other drug treatments have been denied patients , some of which are being “trialled” only now, and the “official” figures of UK “Covid deaths” is presented as a function solely of the alleged lethality of the virus when it is becoming clearer by the day that this is a fraud – why is there a complete absence of flu deaths in the UK in the winter of 2020?
How can it be that the official downgrading of an officially acknowledged less than highly infectious virus, now also acknowledged to be no more lethal than average ‘flu outbreak (remember when that comment was made back in 2020 by some, only for such people to be aggressively targeted for official vitriol, some from certain MPs tasked by the Tory party and the Cabinet Office to to their dirty work?) has not diminished this Government’s handling – is it colossal cock up, or a bunch of career politicians refusing to admit their careers are over by saying “we were wrong all along” or something else?
I ask myself daily: ” what (else) is it going to take for people in these islands to twig what is being infected upon them?” …..
How long is this going to remain on the front page of the Telegraph
”Prof Jefferson said even now we know very little about the ecology of this virus.
“The only thing the virus seems to obey is Farr’s Law (which states epidemics rise and fall in a symmetrical bell curve),” he said. “I am not convinced the path of the pandemic has much to do with our interventions.”
An article that says that all the ‘experts’ were wrong. They have no idea how it transmits. All the studies are crap. etc etc.
How about it doesn’t. the only thing that ‘transmits’ is the lousy, bloody awfully wrong Rt-PCR test results, which are a load os sh*t.
It is worth adding that currently the numbers of deaths are in direct proportion to age
… a bit like death itself!
Hundereds of thousands protesting across France today, and I can personally report that ots really kicked off in Toulouse tonight, tear gas, explosions etc.
This is necessary or else our liberty will be stolen permanently.
These psychopaths do not observe any limits to their depravity.
They will lie, cheat, even kill if it keeps you fearful.
What’s happened though is a darkly comic game.
They’re so bad at the manipulation that, once you become attuned to their lies, it’s like a lying three year old, chocolate all over their faces, telling you repeatedly that they’ve not touched the chocolate.
Laugh at them & tell them you’re not interested in their stupid games& lies.
It is happening Mike. More and more people are waking up to the fat emperor’s nakedness. And lest we become too demoralised, SAGE are publishing minutes showing they know the vaccines don’t work and are highly likely to make things worse. The politicians might be sticking their fingers in their ears, with the complicity of a media who have been hoodwinked (and that is a generous interpretation) but the truth is there. We just need to keep plugging away…
Bravo Toulouse et toutes les autres ( sorry, Francaise not my strong point )
Italians burning their ‘green ‘health’ cards.
https://twitter.com/BernieSpofforth/status/1423958763007053824
It’s unfortunate that we don’t get more coverage of the resistance to all this on DS.
Here are some of our fellow fighters from Saturday:
Poland
https://rumble.com/vkuhhh-poland-lockdown-protests-aug.-7-2021.html
Toulouse
https://www.bitchute.com/video/nuHinRYjBw6O/
Paris
https://www.bitchute.com/video/FYL2VL3kbQIW/
Do you know where the Polish one was? I’ve been to Poland a few times, mainly Warsaw, and what always comes over very strongly is how much the Poles value freedom. Because of their history, they do not take it for granted. I’m on a few Polish Facebook pages, and the comments about their situation are very scathing. They do not seem happy at all. You never hear about the Polish reaction to covid, but I cannot imagine the fiercely proud and independent Poles going along with too much nonsense.
No I’m afraid. Don’t know. I can’t even understand what they are saying. But vax skepticism in Europe is, from what I’ve read, highest amongst the Poles and the Romanians.
Given their histories, it’s pretty understandable.
Joe Rogan is now on board. Watch him get hounded now.
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/one-step-closer-dictatorship-joe-rogan-slams-vaccine-passports-warns-vax-may-cause
Excellent article but how sad that there appears to be little social conscience and ethical concern from scientists. In the rush to publish and be publicly visible in the media ,guessing ( more recently ascribed the title modelling) ,has become Boris’s “Mystic Meg” and when it is shown to be ridiculous the Authors escape.
Masks,Modelling and Manipulation of society are writ large on our world.
Our only hope is that the Young will observe that it is they,and their future which is being sacrificed on the altar of scientific and Public Health hubris.
Just collected Sunday Telegraph and skimmed through to see if there are any reports referring to the links above regarding riots, protests marches etcetera all over Europe. Not one, nothing, zilch. Despair doesn’t even touch the sides.
Don’t despair, take some time to read the SAGE minutes highlighting they know the vaccines don’t work.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1007566/S1335_Long_term_evolution_of_SARS-CoV-2.pdf
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/08/08/macron-grapples-new-gilet-jaunes-protests-against-vaccine-passports/
A good analysis until the line ‘There is a reasonable argument to be made for Covid vaccination in young adults – but I don’t think selective use of data is a sensible way to make it,’ please go ahead and make the case. There is nothing medically evidential from my research to suggest jabbing anybody under 75 who is healthy – these are hardly fit for purpose vaccines – great if they reduce death in v old
and sick but wtf is the rationale for the 99% of us who have natural immunity or post viral immunity needing to get jabbed by this toxic shit which is killing some pretty healthy people? And why isn’t ivermectin + zinc or large doses of vit c or D3 being pushed just as heavily? Why aren’t vaccine deaths being scrutinised? See https://freewestmedia.com/2021/08/03/german-chief-pathologist-sounds-alarm-on-fatal-vaccine-injuries/
You make a very important point with which I agree 100% – perhaps because some of the key people involved in this fraud are in “it” up top their follicles. EG the head of the UK JCVI, who is totally compromised, and equally damned by his “omertà” about it, because of his horrendous conflict of interest vis a vis Pfizer, is pushing this hard. He should be referred to his professional body/ies for gross professional misconduct, and the GMC/HAC for a similar offence but don’t hold your breath. Because Zambon, she of PHE and SAGE who imho is also holed below the waterline, was a signatory to the WHO policy for the use of Cormen/Drosten RT-PCR testing regime, designed, “peer reviewed” and adopted as the “Gold Standard” over three days in January 2020 ( the very same WHO policy statement to which Drosten was also a signatory) how on this earth do these people consider their behaviour – all of which is publicly disclosed by the existence of documents we can all access (until they are pulled) – is acceptable? I can only think that they “know” if the “lie” is big enough, the gullible masses will never see it or be bothered to do so – this behaviour, with other issues to difficult to relate , has destroyed the “automatic” trust I otherwise had in medics, but especially those who have followed and fuelled this con trick, period.
Well Ruth! As someone now well past 75 years there is no way I would take the experimental poison. I had a virus in February 2020 and it was cured by bed , hot drinks and aspirin in two weeks with throat lozengers for the cough, my body has not got antibodies naturally so mRNA is superfluous.
Excellent as always. I would be intrigued to hear whether the doctor thinks the fall in hospitalisation and death could be a coincidence and not caused by the “vaccine”, but by a combination of the delta variant being less virulent and immune systems being more robust in the spring/ summer months.
I think this is a big part of the original trial studies that managed to claim the 95% effectiveness.
Representatives from the World Health Organisation described the approach as “epidemiologically stupid”. Ha!
A letter signed by 1,200 self-defined experts was published in the Lancet predicting imminent catastrophe.
What a marvellous opportunity for The Daily Sceptic to publish this list of 1,200 self-appointed experts. Useful when we encounter them in the street or at dinner parties and ask them to explain what led them sign yet another Disney science Andrex sponsored missive.
Is collaborators too strong a word?
Really? Young adults are not at significant risk, and the jabs aren’t very effective – Pfizer says they will need a booster in 4 months, and claim a third needed. With reports to the Yellow Card system increasing I don’t see what reasonable argument can be made.
“Pfizer says 2021 COVID-19 vaccine sales to top $33.5 bln, sees need for boosters”
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pfizer-raises-estimates-2021-sales-covid-19-vaccine-335-bln-2021-07-28/
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2021/08/07/pathologist-dr-ryan-cole-delivers-concerning-message-about-covid-vaccine-and-long-term-impacts/#more-215046
Indeed. As long as autopsies aren’t performed and conclusions drawn from them, and as long as truly long term safety data is not available, administering the gene therapy to young and middle aged people is a not just medically unnecessary but a totally reckless gamble driven by greed and hubris.
I got the BS slightly wrong (for what it’s worth) and now I can’t edit the comment, the second jab is normally needed even sooner apparently. The claim was that effectiveness is significantly reduced 4 months after the second dose The claim is apparently from a “non-peer reviewed study” anyway, so whatever ..
Indeed. Just been listening to the latest from Stew Peters and Dr Jane Ruby. Dr Ruby stated the latest update by the CDC on the vaccination of 12-17 year olds shows 863 serious adverse events and 14 deaths. The vaccinations started around two months ago and around 75,000 young people have been vaccinated. Over 40% showed symptoms of myocarditis. This ‘success’ has led to calls for vaccination of 2-10 year olds. Utter monstrous madness.
Thanks again for your contribuitons.Together with Will’s articles the best and always the absolute read in LD. You obviously have inside knowledge what is going around in NHS and your data from NHS is astounding and should really be in MSM.
Your report that the situation at the moment seems to be much better than Israel is reassuring and perhaps gives a clue that the delta surge in Israel happened at the worst moment when the immunity had waned from the early start of the vaccination campaign in that country, and they foolishly relied on vaccine passport for their tourists to London,Russia and Georgia should not bring back the latest variant.Perhaps we would have had the Israel situation if the delta wave had come later in the UK.
I think the criticism of the comment about vaccination of the young is a bit unfair.What is said is that basing argument on lies and false statistics is not rational. If there are any arguments for vaccination of the young come forward with those arguments not based on lies.
I have rearranged and corrected in large letters the main passages and information:
“The percentage of younger people in ICUs has increased as a proportion of the total, but this is because the numbers of older people admitted for Covid has collapsed. There are no greater numbers of younger people being admitted per day than there were in January, but far fewer older people. Hence the relative percentage of younger people has risen as the overall total has fallen.
Older patients do not seem to be getting seriously ill with Covid anymore. Over half the admissions to ICU with Covid have body mass indices over 30. Severe illness is heavily skewed to patients with co-morbidities and the SERIOUSLY OBESE unvaccinated.
There is NO a reasonable argument to be made for Covid vaccination in young adults- NOR IN ANYONE HEALTHY AND NOT SERIOUSLY OBESE UNDER THE AGE OF, SAY, 75.”
I do not believe there was a serious threat in the first place. These so called scientists are only statisticians with very little medical knowledge and the idiot Ferguson should be shipped out to the Steppes when we consider his over all performance including the hash he made of the foot and mouth crisis, killing thousands of pedigree cattle, the mans an arsehole
Actually, a cursory glance at the official dashboard statistics may leave you thinking the threat has not passed, as there has been a slight uptick in daily cases over the past few days.
However, all this data is in fact presented without a context to make it meaningful. That context would be the equivalent close inspection of and graphs representing the changes in flu statistics in a bad flu season/year (which has never been done before, or at least subject to such microscopic surveillance).
I imagine that those graphs, if generated and made easily available to the public on any given year, let alone a bad one, would reveal just as alarming, or perhaps worse, a picture than we’re seeing now with Covid-19. Especially since we’re not looking at excess deaths compared to previous years, it’s likely flu / pneumonia would have caused just as many deaths absent Covid!
This is worrying. Wake up UK or Freedom will evaporate with our passive complicity.
The roads are FULL of trucks, the ‘pingdemic’ is over.
Getting the Army out on the streets delivering food is a psyop to familiarise the population, to accept their presence & soften them up and prepare them for Martial Law….another Trojan Horse.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9873763/Army-standby-stock-Britains-shelves-2-000-HGV-drivers-Royal-Logistics-Corps.htmlp
The whole thing is a massive con.
There appears to be an error in the horizontal time scale for the graph ‘Daily deaths (seven day average) Covid England January-July 2021’ – unless it is a prediction from the Mad Modellers! It runs from 1/2/2025 to 7/17/2025.
The ‘threat’ which the Government maintained was nowhere near as vicious as they would have it be. Fear (False Evidence Appreaing Real) is the favourite weapon in the politicians armoury. The rest is obvious to those who read up on the Covid fiasco.
I think this whole event has been a matter of panic amongst the political and medical elite.
Someone, somewhere knew of the gain of function experiments going in the Wuhan laboratory. Not that’s it’s unique, it’s going on in laboratories across the world. Are we to be considered stupid enough not to understand this simply because governments deny it’s happening?
My belief is the wuflu escaped from the Wuhan facility because the Chinese are sloppy at everything. Communists think along the lines of quantity, not quality. Ever bought a Chinese designed and manufactured product? Then you’ll know what I mean. The quality products emerging from China are largely those designed by the west with cheap labour in China controlled by western businesses.
The west commissioned gain of function research from a Chinese laboratory controlled by the CCP to save money. In other words, cheapskates.
The virus escaped and the west had no clue what it could do, so they collectively panicked, knowing they had funded it and understood nothing about it.
They adopted the worst case scenario policy and we are now, where we are now; governments understanding their collusive experiments aren’t as dangerous as they hoped they were (otherwise why would anyone engage in gain of function research?) and unable to row back their deceit lest they are rumbled.
As much as I’m tempted by the concept of ‘globalist conspiracy theories’ now being enacted, I largely agree with Toby Young when he states that most governments couldn’t organise a fvck in a br0thel (paraphrasing).
FFS these m0r0ns can’t even agree on replacing domestic central heating gas boilers to save the world over the next 30 years, far less develop a cohesive pandemic response – which was detailed by the WHO and didn’t include lockdowns, masks or ‘vaccinations.
How on earth do they expect to respond to a ‘national emergency’ over the course of 18 months?
I perceive governments as a bunch of over enthusiastic little control freaks running a medieval village. When things went consistently wrong under their watch they would have been stoned.
That courage is now not within the populace.
“There is a reasonable argument to be made for Covid vaccination in young adults”
Ummmm, such as what? Their risk of death by vaccine is around 1 in 34,000 and their risk of death by Covid-19 is arond ten times that.
ffs…These guys are supposed to be on our side. At least they could get their facts right.
ten times less?