Bristol’s Professor Philip Thomas has a new piece in the Spectator this week. Readers may recall that I criticised his previous pieces for what seemed in my view to be wildly over-the-top predictions of the likely scale of the Delta surge.
In June, he predicted “an enormous final wave“, in which the virus “would quickly seek out the one-in-three Britons who are still susceptible: mainly the not-yet-vaccinated” and peak in the middle of July (the bit he got right) “at anywhere between two million and four million active infections“. According to the ONS, around 951,700 people in the U.K. were PCR positive in the week ending July 24th, and that appears to be the peak, which is less than half of Professor Thomas’s lower estimate.
He now admits: “The situation is better than I bargained for at the beginning of June and also better than my estimates a month later.” In fact, it’s so much better, that he thinks “the decline in active infections can only mean that England is about to reach the herd immunity threshold for the Delta variant”. By which he means that “around 86% of England’s adults and children must now be immune”. On this basis he argues that it is “extremely unlikely” that there will be a new Covid surge in the coming winter.
The problem with this analysis is it is still based on the SAGE assumption that herd immunity is a once-for-all-time thing, that was made harder to reach by the more transmissible Delta variant, but which we have now just achieved, mostly through vaccination, and it will now keep us safe.
This is a mistake. It fails to recognise that herd immunity is variant-specific, is much closer than you think due to prior immunity, and has already been achieved several times over. Herd immunity is the reason that each wave or surge has peaked prior to lockdown each time in England. The original wave peaked and declined ahead of the first lockdown due to herd immunity (possibly assisted by the warmer weather), and thus there was no exit wave in summer 2020 as restrictions were lifted. We did have new surges as new variants arrived (and the seasons changed) – first the ‘Spanish’ variant in the autumn and then Alpha in the winter. Both these surges peaked and declined ahead of their respective lockdowns as herd immunity was reestablished. Thus there was again no exit wave in spring 2021, but only a new surge later on when Delta arrived (just as U.S. states had no exit wave as they reopened in the spring but are having a Delta surge now). That too peaked and declined despite the easing of restrictions, again reflecting a restored herd immunity.
This means there is no reason there shouldn’t be a new Covid surge of some size (presumably smaller) in the winter, assuming a new variant shows up by that point. If it doesn’t, we may well have a wave of a different seasonal respiratory virus, perhaps our absent friend influenza.
The point is that herd immunity isn’t some single final endpoint that we have been gradually moving towards since early 2020, and which only mass vaccination has allowed us to reach. This is clear if only from the fact that the fully vaccinated are still being infected and transmitting the virus in large numbers – Imperial College this week estimated that 44% of infections between June 24th and July 12th were in the fully vaccinated.
The modellers, whether at Bristol or on SAGE, keep making the same mistakes, assuming universal susceptibility until infected or vaccinated, that lockdowns have been responsible for controlling infections, and that there will be a huge exit wave when restrictions are lifted. They never seem to notice that outbreaks consistently peak before or without lockdowns, and that exit waves never occur (except when there’s a new variant about at the same time).
So this is my view: Professor Thomas will be wrong about there being no Covid surge this winter (unless by some good fortune no new variant shows up by then) for the same reason he was wrong to predict an “enormous” exit wave this summer. Herd immunity is not a once-for-all-time thing, but variant (and season) specific. This means it is both closer than you think, and never final. But it doesn’t need to be, because such a small proportion of those infected are made seriously ill and die from this virus, whatever the variant.
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HI threshold is going to vary all the time.
Seasonal effects and behavioral effects due to the season.
Waning antibodies.
Variants
All of these are going to affect Rt and create transitory herd immunity.
Israel likely reached Alpha herd immunity then Delta arrived, increased Rt and now its on the rise again.
When winter arrives, UV and other climatic factors change, people cluster together more indoors, some antibody waning will have happened. All of that is going to increase Rt and cause an increase in cases.
I suspect its unlikely the UK can ever reach a stable herd immunity – the thresholds are based on 100% effective vaccines. We use a lot of AstraZenica which is only 60% or so effective against symptomatic infection so even if we vaccinated everyone, its efficacy is low enough we still cant cross that line.
I can’t see any scientific reason to think we *wont* have a winter wave of some sort (cases but not deaths). Its what we’d expect to happen for any disease.
Blimey – I am being polite, but that is proper 77 Brigade Billy bullshit.
“Transitory herd immunity?” Fuckin hell that’s an interesting part of “the science” we haven’t heard of before.
Moving on we have different immunity for different scariants which will effect the ‘scariant’ “R” rate – another mythological piece of pseudo science.
“A winter wave?” You know Fuckin well there will be a winter wave which will result from all the clot shots.
Now Piss Off.
Surprise, Surprise – MP’s and Scientific Advisors are heavily invested in Vaccine Industry
(it’s hard to believe the political & media establisment is so corrupt – or is it? )
https://dailyexpose.co.uk/2021/03/08/surprise-surprise-mps-and-scientific-advisors-are-heavily-invested-in-vaccine-industry/#
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The guys at Sheepfarm have been doing a series of videos and podcasts on all the vested interests and even for an old cynic like me, it is mindbogglingly shocking how these flockers are feathering their nests.
https://sheepfarm.co.uk
I recommend the Meet the Flockers series, the one on Matt Hancock was a real eye opener and the SAGE unmasked series is depressingly much much more of the same.
Its only an “interesting part of science you havent heard before” if you lack even basic GCSE level science education. Which clearly you do.
You’re only demonstrating how thick you are by posting that nonsense.
The virus will still be around but with most people having some immunity less people will die of it. My worry is if they count any death where the virus is present, as has been happening, a false impression of large numbers of “Covid deaths” could be created. I seem to remember a comment about the average elderly person dying of a respiratory disease having over a dozen pathogens present.
Think of Captain Tom: admitted to hospital with pneumonia; died of Covid!
spot on, a fast mutating virus will always be with us, but hopefully less deadly. Even if you are immune today this may change. Anything that suppresses your immune system at the time of high infection rates (cancer, stress) can make you vulnerable again and you might get a sniffle. As soon as people stop testing, the pandemic will be over.
And that has been the case since May 2020
The vaccines are suppressing immune systems. See Care Homes in Jan and Feb
suppressingRUINING.A jabbed friend is now constantly ill. Refuses to believe its probably the jabs though.
no, he’s suffering from ‘its just a coincidence’ syndrome
There’s really only been a casedemic because of over-testing.
I’m less and less convinced that the numbers have anything to do with tests. There was a clip on YouTube not too long ago in which an Australian (or NZ?) comedian had cracked an algorithm and was accurately predicting their numbers each day. Wouldn’t be too hard to set up for someone with the right skills…(not me!)
You keep going on about AZ being less effective, but what about Israel?
What about Israel?
Pfizer isnt perfect but AZ has demonstrated VEs against symptomatic infection >20% lower in every study ever done.
12 in 100 catching it while vaccinated is better than 40 in 100.
Splatt? S Platt?
“I suspect its unlikely the UK can ever reach a stable herd immunity“
What do you mean by “a stable herd immunity”?
With other coronaviruses that cause colds, which is most likely what this would quickly settle down to be, if we hadn’t interfered with the process by mass vaccination with leaky vaccines, perhaps, herd immunity is reached for particular conditions and then the virus hangs around (“endemic”) until the conditions change enough for an epidemic to be triggered.
If that’s what you mean by “stable herd immunity”, then presumably we are already there, and were after the initial epidemic swept through.
Delta Scariant has a CFR of 0.2 which is the same as Flu.
We don’t have herd immunity against any of the other HCoVs either. Thats why they still exist.
It’ll reach equilibrium once enough people have caught it, just like all other epidemics transitioning to endemic. It’ll take a few years at current rates and that isnt herd immunity.
Herd immunity does not mean the disease does not exist. It means it can’t spread rapidly.
https://gbdeclaration.org/frequently-asked-questions/
What is herd immunity?
Herd immunity occurs when enough people have immunity so that most infected people cannot find new uninfected people to infect, leading to the end of the epidemic/pandemic. This means that the epidemic/pandemic will end before everyone is infected, although it will continue in endemic form with low rates of infections.
Do you believe in herd immunity?
Yes. Herd immunity is a scientifically proven phenomenon. To ask an epidemiologist if they believe in herd immunity is like asking a physicist if they believe in gravity. Those who deny herd immunity may also wish to join the flat-earth society.
With COVID-19, can herd immunity be avoided?
No. Sooner or later, herd immunity will be reached either through natural infection or through a combination of vaccinations and natural infection.
Thats a very twisted definition and isnt the one previously used.
They’re describing endemic equilibrium as herd immunity. Its not.
That simplistic definition also forgets things such as antibody waning and variants.
We’ll get to endemic equilibrium, most likely in a year or so but wont ever get to herd immunity just like we havent for any other HCoV.
The GB Declaration is signed by more than a dozen professors of epidemiology and literally thousands of medical professionals and academics working in the field.
As I noted below, feel free to contact those professionals to school them in the basics of their field, if you wish. For now I’m happy to use their definition.
Its already been pointed out to them by many many professionals.
Nothing wrong with the GBD idea at all but there was no need to redefine textbook definitions to fit their points when they could simply have used the real term.
Endemic equilibrium is not herd immunity. Its a normal factor of life for all other HCoVs and most other viruses.
Here’s the origin of the term, from the Lancet. You will note that it always referred to ending epidemic spread, not eliminating a disease, at least until pharma-driven attempts to redefine it.
“Unless there was a steady influx of susceptible mice, the rising prevalence of immune individuals would end an epidemic. In a 1923 article in the Journal of Hygiene, he and G S Wilson described this phenomenon as “herd immunity”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7498207/
What matters for the herd immunity threshold calculation is the ability of the vaccine to stop onward transmission. Other aspects are important for other reasons, but not for the herd immunity calculation.
For the characteristics of covid and the vaccines (at stopping onward transmission) the herd immunity threshold is over 100%, ie, there is no possibility of meeting herd immunity with vaccination and the disease will become endemic.
We are pretty much certain to have a nasty covid wave this winter. If we’re lucky we won’t also get ADE effects in the vaccinated.
Its two fold – its reduction in transmission and the reduction in infection of a vaccinated individual.
From vaccines it seems mRNA reduce infection in the 80% range and AZ in the 60% range.
NHSTT study and Singapore last week have both shown viral load vaccinated v unvaccinated for those infected is essentially identical for the first 5-6 days which implies zero reduction in transmission.
As well as that, HIT is a whole population calculation. We’re only vaccinating about 80% of it even assuming 100% takeup.
So herd immunity via vaccination is utterly impossible here. It simply wont happen.
We’re going to need people to catch it. Which is what we needed in the first place but merely delayed with lockdowns and NPIs.
Good comment and supplementary to the main piece. I don’t know why you are getting so many downvotes.
As for the GBD use of ‘herd immunity’ I suppose good rhetoric doesn’t always mix with precise scientific statements. But a footnote wouldn’t have gone amiss.
The problem seems to be that policymakers are chasing an illusory near-zero covid policy, which is neither possible nor necessary. This awful and chilling piece from the FT illustrate how they think (paywall):
https://www.ft.com/content/b7e1438c-95a2-44a6-9677-74d945a741b5
“פרופ’ אייל שחר
@prof_shahar
It is crystal clear.
The UK Delta wave is endemic.
[Endemic = case wave, no significant mortality wave, no excess deaths.]
We would not have noticed it in normal times.
All family members create such common cold waves.“
https://twitter.com/prof_shahar/status/1420081080569274376
Indeed, and this is really the only thing to focus on
Depending on how you define “significant mortality” and “wave” there were arguably only two – the first one in spring 2020 (covid + withdrawal of NHS care?) and Jan/Feb 2021 (vaccine rollout to frail?) and neither of those were an existential threat to society/order/the NHS/public health
Everything else is a rabbit hole that lends credence to the wrong-headed idea that covid was exceptional and leaves room for our enemies to argue
I do wish DS would push this basic message more as it’s the only way out of the madness long term
I’ve said it before, but if “vaccines” are so effective, and with our government boasting about how we have one of the most “vaccinated” populations in the world, why have there been more “Covid deaths” in the UK than other European countries since the beginning of December (adjusted for population, and the first “vaccination” was 8th December)
Sarcasm: because not enough people have been wearing masks.
No-one seems to bother with two masks which has proved to be so effective in US (also sarcasm).
Ah but they’re not wearing them in enough places; or avoiding the faecal matter on train seats…
What? it’s a scam? You mean bodies aren’t piling up in the streets (of Bolton)?
Same with their victory lap yesterday last summer. It’ll only end when we stop testing.
Hear hear. The vaccine has certainly enabled more deaths. The end of the first wave was already declining well in November having probably caught up with most of the remaining vulnerable from the spring. Yes, there would have been further deaths as new vulnerables emerged but I would have laid money on it not being as ‘bad’ as we have had this year even though I still question how many of those deaths were with SARS-COV-2 as opposed to of covid. The data has been bastardised to be not far from totally useless now aside from overall mortality which lets not forget, for England and Wales was only an excess of 67k in 2020 which includes consequential deaths from all causes
I always thought it was 68k 🙂 Worst since 2008 anyhow. And years before 2008 were worse than that. Definitely a lot of deaths caused by the lockdowns etc., and more to come.
Assuming, of course, that the germ theory model of disease is correct.
Well, obviously, it’s all caused by the Miasma, or possibly Stagnation o’ ‘t’ Lungs, complicated by Golf Stones.
The price of fish might be a factor.
Well it is true that the NHS suffers from “winter pressures” every year so I think it’s safe to say it will do again. I think it’s also a safe bet that the Gov will do everything they can to blame this on covid (and specifically the “unvaccinated” and “unmasked”.) There’s going to be a lot of people shocked to realise that their “vaccination” hasn’t meant that they can cheat death and live eternally after all.
“I think it’s safe to say it will do again”
Indeed – it’s classic misdirection. The pressures on hospitals is to a large extent the result of political decisions, so the response is that of the little liar caught red-handed “‘Tweren’t me”.
Herd immunity isn’t a single threshold that we pass. It’s something we cycle in and out of. Once we’ve cycled into herd immunity during the Winter the cycle back out of herd immunity during the following Winter is naturally limited because overall immunity is higher. Those of the population who had no pre-existing immunity when the virus first triggered are no longer susceptible in the same way.
We will tend to cycle out of herd immunity in the Winter because the virus is seasonal (for multiple reasons not fully understood such as humidity and vitamin D levels) and because of changing immunity, and cycle into herd immunity during the Summer. Other things like mutations may mean we can still cycle out of herd immunity in the Summer but because Summer illness is so mild we only notice it if we waste resources measuring its presence not its affect. That’s what’s happened this Summer.
As the virus mutates it can evade the immune system to some extent. Most people have now encountered the virus at some point or had pre-existing immunity before Spring 2020 from previous exposure to other coronaviruses. As a result this exposure to variants results in mild illness only. The virus is endemic like the common cold.
So yes we will expect to see an increase in measured infections in the Winter. The only issue is whether the vaccines have unbalanced the immune systems in those vaccinated and because of vaccine affects like ADE, and because the vaccines put selective pressure on the virus to mutate, vaccinated people don’t have the immunity they would have had had they allowed nature to do its job.
There is also the issue that even if SARS-C0V-2 is present and causing mild symptoms only during the Winter except amongst the absolutely most vulnerable (who would also be affected by say common cold viruses), if we still count deaths from other causes and other respiratory viruses as covid deaths then we create a wave of death that isn’t really there. We experience increased levels of coat wearing every Winter, but we don’t then say that winter deaths are caused by coat wearing. If marshals in the street stopped everyone with multiple layers of clothes and a coat and then counted every one of those coat wearing people who died within 28 days of coat wearing, we would create a wave of coat wearing death not seen during the Summer. However coat wearing won’t have caused the deaths.
Yes – your words ‘The only issue is whether the vaccines have unbalanced the immune systems in those vaccinated and because of vaccine affects like ADE, and because the vaccines put selective pressure on the virus to mutate, vaccinated people don’t have the immunity they would have had had they allowed nature to do its job. ‘ – are the key I believe as to why there has been much activity on the delta front – these jabs are mucking with broad based immunity – and had we not been told there was a pandemic etc etc – it would have been a v bad flu season (triggering bacterial pneumonia – largely ignored)… cheap treatments available – no vaccine – kids / mum at home with a cold – bob’s your uncle – virus gets weaker – off you go – and we live and die – but that didn’t happen. We got the transhumanist bio ethical freak show instead.
Wouldn’t vaccinated people build their natural immune system when they encounter the virus ‘in nature’? For the old and vulnerable at least the vaccine could buy some time while they build up more broad based immunity (by then of course many of them might have died of other causes!). Genuine question – I’m interested in the answer.
Right. So we need to do something about these “coat wearers” then…..and quickly!!
Very interesting article Will.
As you say herd immunity is a fluid concept that also has to take in the interactions of each member of the public based with others – ie if those that had the virus and spread it because they carried on interacting (ie the young) reached a herd but the terrified older community still kept their distance then regardless of vaccination of not you reach “herd” immunity because a chunk of the herd bury themselves in a hut (so to speak).
Isn’t this one of the biggest failings of the modelling? That via the press and obsession with case counts it leads to changes in behaviour before the government start reacting post hoc?
For me this has always been why I am strongly against many of the NPIs – that it assumes humans are lemmings and all jump off a cliff. With sensible advice (cf Sweden) you can mitigate that and change the most at risk people#s behaviour more subtlety – but still achieve the same results.
On the variant side – surely the more people who contract full C19 (assuming young and healthy) the better because it gives a more complete immunity from the whole virus rather than just the spike protein?
It seems likely that this country will experience a ‘covid’ ‘surge’ this winter if the exclusively covid PCR test is not changed for a test that also includes screening at least for influenza.
Hopefully (in this at least) we will follow the U.S.:
‘After December 31, 2021, CDC will withdraw the request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, the assay first introduced in February 2020 for detection of SARS-CoV-2 only. CDC is providing this advance notice for clinical laboratories to have adequate time to select and implement one of the many FDA-authorized alternatives.’
‘CDC encourages laboratories to consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses.’
https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert-Changes_CDC_RT-PCR_SARS-CoV-2_Testing_1.html
Is that the CDC admitting that the PCR test can’t differentiate between covid and the flu?
It was only ever advertised as a ‘2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR’ test.
So, if you have symptoms caused by other coronaviruses, rhinoviruses, 160+ identified ILI (Influenza Like Illnesses) and untold numbers of unidentified ILI, but you also have covid RNA, for whatever reason, you become a ‘covid’ statistic.
That is why infuenza has ‘disappeared’ (it has been disappeared!).
Influenza will make a come back this winter, now that CDC has encouraged testing for it.
The question is: how will the assemblage of bozos, narcissists, infirm and the just plain bat shit crazy who are running this global weird out respond to this coming winter’s influenza…..the previously normal response or today’s paranormal…..
You know where the betting money is……..
How exactly are you going to get SARs2 RNA present to be detected without exposure to it?….
You’re not going to get wrong disease protections. You may detect exposure not infection but thats different.
Influzenza and most other diseases “disappeared” because of social distancing measures. They have a bigger effect on viruses with a low R0 such as those than SARs2 which is higher.
Juding solely from personal experiences, colds (of whatever kinds) absolutely didn’t disappear last year. Eg, I got one from a lady at the deli counter of a Polish supermarket (presumably) happily coughing into the stuff she was then handing out to customers while wearing a mask below her chin, the closest she ever got partaking in any kind of Sars-CoV2-avoidance sport.
In some kind of theoretical wonderland, “diseases” might disappear because of social distancing but not in the real world where people simply don’t do that. Terribly inconveniencing the hospitality industry because the sell ALCOHOL (!!!) there was never going to become a miracle cure for anything, just pointless hardship inflicted onto some minority group deemed to be politically nondesirable.
Social distancing is virtue signalling exercise some members of the (relatively affluent) middle class sometimes playact in public. I can’t really imagine that this has prevented a single, large Polish barbecue and the members of the loitering at street corners class certainly never changed any of their living and socialising habit (nor did – for that matter – the police ever even try to make them). All of these people should dead by now, yet, none of them has disappeared.
The point is that influenza like illnesses disappeared because covid was the only thing being tested for, at high cycle thresholds that could find covid in a meatloaf……
The U.S. will now test this winter for both covid and influenza
And guess what……
(it’s hard to believe the political & media establisment is so corrupt – or is it? )
Surprise, Surprise – MP’s and Scientific Advisors are heavily invested in Vaccine Industry
https://dailyexpose.co.uk/2021/03/08/surprise-surprise-mps-and-scientific-advisors-are-heavily-invested-in-vaccine-industry/#
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When I was 12, 60 years ago,I suffered a bout of bronchitis and at it’s worst, I remember thinking: “When I breathe out,will I have enough strength to breathe in again?”,
I wonder, if now amongst this hysterical overreaction, how many people put on ventilators,have actually got bronchitis?
Just a thought.
The key fact is that the peak in deaths from the third wave (delta variant) is a twentieth the peak in deaths from the second wave, before the vaccinations got underway.
It is not as though each variant should be treated as though it was a new disease – which seems to be the implication of Will Jones’ article. We now do have a ‘herd immunity’ against Covid 19 and its variants. It is not a perfect herd immunity in the technical sense, but it is an effective herd immunity in that the virulence of the variants is much reduced.
Covid 19 is now in the same class of severity as flu and we should treat it as such.
The deaths will be lower because it is summer.
We won’t be able to tell the full impact of Delta on hospitalisations/deaths until winter.
A couple of comments:
“mostly through vaccination…” – no conclusive proof that that is the case, it could have happened naturally with none at all. After all, the drug on offer does NOT promise that it prevents infection or transmission, only symptom mitigation.
“..our absent friend influenza” – it depends on how they fill out the form, as it were, a cynic might observe.
It is rather amazing how little information the trials gathered on asymptomatic infection and transmission.
Even the latest study report on Pfizer didn’t look at asymptomatic infection, but symptomatic only — and that was in those 12-15 years of age where the whole point of vaccination is to reduce transmission.
Actually, the NHS leaflet I received said “We do not yet know whether it will stop you from catching and passing on the virus”. All they claimed was that it might “reduce your chance of becoming seriously ill” – March 2021 issue.
How modelling works: Ask your paymaster what figure they want. Tell them you’ve found it.
Correct!
If this vaccine is all its cracked up to be, how come a so-called fully vaxxed man who met his daughter and her partner both of whom are in social services and so- called fully vaxxed, caught the whu-flu.
Its only a money making con, I do wonder what the monkey poison is doing to them!
interesting discussion with Martin Kuldorf and Jay Batcharaya, authors of the Great Barrington Declaration on GB News last night
apparently it was Cummings that orchestrated the disinformation and smear campaign against the GBD
Cummings has a lot to answer for
I thought they were very calm about the villification of non-compliant scientists. I would have been furious about the way they have been treated, but I think they were spot on about many in the scientific community toeing the line over concerns about continued funding.
More academics in the USA have tenure (aka jobs for life and total freedom of speech) than in the UK.
A certain UK PM abolished academic tenure in 1988. Lecturers and professors today have little more job security than a bus driver. Of course these people will mostly toe the line.
Most US doctors don’t have it, hence Dr. Pierre Kory said more or less ‘I’ve blown up my career for my principles and for sticking to scientific integrity’.
Why oh why are we still being advised by SAGE? Isn’t it apparent by now to the majority that they are deliberately misleading the public? It’s a scam!
Whatever happened to the 70% HI level that we were told about at the start of all this. That was the figure that has been used for all previous epidemics and without the help of the flawed concept of asymptomatic testing using an inappropriate (according to the manfacturer) test, I suspect we wouldn’t have noticed the drop in overall deaths and hospitalisations below the long term average and wouldn’t have spotted a wave at all.
Similarly the last winter wave was in fact 2 waves (looking at hospitalisations and deaths), the first one being mainly Covid cases affecting the section of the herd that was prevented from gaining herd immunity through the first lockdown, and the second wave was the conventional winter flu wave but being misattributed to Covid via the spurious tests and the actions of government to promote vaccinations.
Any such number was and will always be entirely made-up and without any medical relevance in practice.
It’s sole relevance is political.
The herd immunity threshold is given by (1-1/R0). If you plug in R0=3 you get HIt of 66%. All of the statements made last year were based on this.
If you plug in R0=6 (apparently R0 for Delta, although I have my doubts) then you get a HIt of about 83%. This is probably the reason for them wanting to vaccinate even the children.
But it appears that the people making the statements and decisions didn’t go to the lecture on herd immunity that followed, where they’d have learnt that those thresholds are only for perfect vaccines. For real vaccines you have to divide by the vaccine effectiveness at stopping transmission.
If you make this calculation for any of the variants and any of the vaccines you get a HIt of over 100%, ie, herd immunity becomes impossible.
Once you see this then you shouldn’t pursue a gold of reaching herd immunity, but should instead try to protect the most vulnerable (as over vaccination increases risks of vaccine escape) and instead manage the disease using treatments.
We havent used 70% for all epidemics at all.
HIT depends on the R0 of the virus. The higher the R0, the higher the threshold.
73% or so was about right for wild type SARs2 but higher for Alpha and higher again for Delta.
Also for some diseases we have sterilising vaccines. For SARs2 we do not. Thats without antibody waning.
We’re not going to achieve vaccination HI ever with a HIT of >80% when we’re vaccinating in total 80% of the population and vaccines with average efficacy of around 70%.
No point even trying. Impossible and wont happen.
It’ll cease to become a problem once enough people have caught it and it transitions to fully endemic and stable in a population with stable about of immunity.
But thats not herd immunity.
“It’ll cease to become a problem once enough people have caught it and it transitions to fully endemic and stable in a population with stable about of immunity.
But thats not herd immunity.”
Yes, it is.
Feel free to contact the GB Declaration signatories and explain to them how all those professors of epidemiology have misunderstood this concept that is so fundamental to their field.
Indeed herd immunity is dynamic. And because the disease is endemic – and we may get variants – we will still get some levels of infection particularly in the winter. But one factor that doesn’t seem to be talked about is the fact that there has been very little reinfection even with the presentation of variance. This seems to suggest if you’ve had covid in its various variant forms this does have cross immunity with other variants. This stands to reason because both SARS 1, MERS, and certain coronavirus that caused the common cold do appear to give cross immunity to covid-19.
Acquired Herd Immunity appears to be robust, flexible and long term. Possibly lifetime.
Experimental Gene Therapy ‘protection’, (it does not give, nor was it designed or claimed to give, immunity), appears to be variant specific and declines relatively quickly. Maybe that should be factored into their models as well!
Don’t be ridiculous.
Their profits would be a fraction and the control agenda couldn’t even have gotten out of the gates.
The Gates.
Also once caught the person has to spread it… it seems the spreading part is the least understood bit
With the jabbed breakthrough cases kicking out lots virus more than the recovering cases, it seems jabbing may be making things worse.
Except that isnt true.
Latest papers show viral load is similar for 5-6 days then drops off much much more rapidly in vaccinated individuals.
Some harsh lessons will soon have to be learned.
https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/aug/5/biden-teams-misguided-and-deadly-covid-19-vaccine-/
It’s an arms race that has no end in sight. Unless we admit that natural immunity is a thing, that there is no emergency and that the Barrington Declaration was right all along.
Will that happen? Not without one hell of a lot of pain for everyone
This comment re herd immunity being variant specific from what I can gather is both incorrect and correct.
For those who have had the wild virus they will be immune to all variants. This is not disputable.
For those they refer to as having immunity through vaccination there is a huge question mark as to whether the beloved vaccinations are actually encouraging infection (See Joel Smalley’s analysis Thread by @RealJoelSmalley on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App – plus consider the data from Israel regarding hospitalisations and vaccination status) of if the vaccine has been developed to only target a small part of the virus – that which varies – rather than that which remains largely constant and so COULD only offer immunity to each individual variant.
At what point, whilst harsh for some to accept, do we acknowledge that the beloved untested vaccinations are not working and could be doing more harm than good – especially to those it has killed and maimed whilst people believed the Govt and ‘did their bit’? We have to stop, pause, assess and consider exactly how useless the interventions have been, how costly they have been and whether or not they were really required in the first place.
If this vaccination campaign was scientific and for the benefit of peoples health, everyone would have had to be tested for T cell immunity before being made eligible to get a jab.
The fact that this is the furthest from their mind there could be tells one all there is to know in this regard.
Oh for sure but disagree that this is all one needs to know. Those who are still blindly following the Govt are not going to accept that there are malice reasons behind this but do we stand a chance on convincing them that pushing for more of the same when people are dying from that vaccine cannot be the right way to go?
DING DING DING!
This!
And what good would that do?
T cell immunity wont reduce infection but can reduce severity.
Absolutely. When I declined the offer earlier in the year, I suggested that to my local GP’s place. No answer to that either way, and I’m not prepared to shell out a few hundred pounds to have that done privately – although it’s possible that I dealt with it automatically, as it were. Just don’t know what the virus was behind my minor infection – and of course it was normal not to worry about it before the panic emerged around March 2020.
What makes you think a T Cell test would be any more accurate than any of the others? £££
“For those who have had the wild virus they will be immune to all variants. This is not disputable.“
Resistant, but not immune, presumably, as with influenza.
PHE figures last week have reinfections running at about 1.2% of daily cases. Its not only “disputable” – its plain wrong.
But they have resistance to more serious illness.
“For those who have had the wild virus they will be immune to all variants. This is not disputable.”
Simply isnt true. We’re running at about 1.2% of infections being reinfections in the UK at the moment.
Its also not true for any other HCoV, Influenza or most other diseases. The infection will likely be less severe (T cell and other responses) but you can still get infected.
The current specific vaccinations may well be too small long term and need updating but ultimately are fine against current variants as the changes are small. There are 50 or so epitopes on the spike generating immunity so even losing a few of those due to variants the vaccine is broadly effective.
That’s super marginal and subject to false positivity even if true.
The real problem of vaccinating those who had the infection, whether diagnosed and tested or not, is that there is zero benefit to them, plenty of damage to the vaxx campaign as resources are wasted and as variant creation is enabled and increased (see Bridle interview today) and, above all, that these people are subjected to the vaccines side effects unnecessarily and that their ADE risk is thereby irresponsibly created and increased very significantly.
Therefore, I stick to my original statement, as plenty of experts who made it do.
“We have to stop, pause, assess and consider exactly how useless the interventions have been, how costly they have been and whether or not they were really required in the first place.”
Ah but then our corrupt politicians who have a lot in vested in this scam would have to admit they were wrong, and it would bring the whole edifice down on their heads.
Herd immunity is widely mis-communicated and mis-understood as eradication of the virus, its transmission and the disease, achieved a bit earlier than at a rate of 100% natural or artificial individual immunity, namely at the entirely made-up HIT, and that is the problem.
You and many commentators here identified what it really means and what obstacles will always remain, I merely want to add the geographical one: the immunity rates in e.g. Skane and Stockholm varied wildly, but people continued to travel widely between the two regions, the same is true even on a village to village basis. The ‘herd’ is just not homogeneous, not fenced in and always mixes with similar ones in the real world. In addition, herd immunity is impossible to achieve with zoonotically transmitted pathogens, therefore alone, we are fighting windmills here!
I come back to Profs Gatti&Montanari who warned about this misinterpretation a decade ago already, when it first took hold:
The herd immunity as propagated by computer modelers, aka epidemiologist, and simple- minded journos with their animated fenced- in cattle diagrams is simply just a myth.
An invention, without any medical evidence and solely motivated by greed, made by these people on behalf of the drug industry, solely to justify the vaccination of people not at risk of a pathogen and disease.
And they have been very successful spreading this myth, deliberate misinformation and Big Lie.
If it’s estimated that 44% of infections between June 24th and July 12th were in the fully vaccinated, why are all the travel restrictions based on whether you’ve been vaccinated or not? Surely, it should be based on whether you are symptomatic or not, and AFAIK, asymptomatic transmission still has no scientific support. The problem there of course, is that neither the PCR nor LFT test can determine transmissibility. Further, the positive news of herd immunity seems to be reinforced by a report that asymptomatics have a higher viral load, which to some means life is about to end, but to me, indicates that our natural immunity is working effectively.
asymptomatic transmission is more likely to be possible in the jabbed as they have extra viral load, plus it’s mostly replicating in the lungs (not the blood stream) hence the lower symptoms…
They do not have increased viral load at all.
You know something the leaked CDC document doesn’t?
Above all, they are suppressing their symptoms artificially, thereby becoming superspreaders much more easily, like the case in Hamburg recently showed, and their equivalent is the drugged up Webasto lady that created the asymptomatic infectiousness myth for the then just healthy and now healthy aka unvaxxed people in the first place.
So a quick look at this guys “models” show all the basic problems with these kind of model. No understanding of the dynamics of infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations. In the real world. Or familial with previous work based on many generations of clinical and field data. So just models based on other peoples models.
Lets just take the most glaring problems.
1) A value for R0 that has not been true in the clinical data from cluster outbreaks since the first 12 weeks of the first infection phase. Stick in a more defensible value for R0 and the curves in his graphs collapse.
2) The equations are for a non dynamic heterogeneous population with arbitrary cohort differentiation and value assignment. These are just white board equations, not ones that could be tested and verified against field data with any chance of verification.
3) All assumption are based on normal population dynamics. Which have been completely shattered in the last 18 months. Assumptions are the usual naive ones typical of someone who is not familiar with the are being modeled, infectious disease dynamics, or the pitfalls involved with modelling infectious disease spread.
The one plus is that he actual does get one part of the dynamics of endemic viral respiratory infectious diseases and why the equilibrium infection rate in the general population is around 40%. A number which is valid not only for human corona viruses but pandemic influenza as well.
Although he goes on to treat herd immunity seriously. A concept based on the assumption that every single person in the population is not only susceptible but will be exposed to an infection event. The standard equation overstates the number in a real world population by at least 50%. Which gets you back to around 40%. The real world number.
or he didn’t factor in Ribena
Stop complying. Stop moaning. Start fighting. Don’t ever wear masks. “Exempt”. I always insist (politely) on others removing their masks for me (Hard of hearing) – they have to by law. See what’s happening in Australia. It’s coming here soon if we don’t stop it now. Don’t ever stop using problematic stores, services or businesses. Use them more often! Any problems – Complain directly to the manager in person (maskless of course) – then send letters to head office – don’t give in to negativity. FIGHT. BACK. BETTER. All the resources you need: https://www.LCAHub.org/
There will always be variants because of escape variants becoming forced through vaccinating against the most mutational part of the viral genome: the spike protein.
Lets not forget that if the evil geniuses that engineered this spliced virus wanted to, they could quite easily have a new version to leak that will actually be Spanish Flu like in its morbidity.
Bill Gates smilingly told us the next virus really will get our attention…
Herd immunity is achieved by vaccinating the vulnerable, before a virus hits.
Not indiscriminately ‘vaccinate everyone on the planet during the pandemic, with a non-vaccine that obviously doesn’t work to resist transmission.
“Herd immunity is achieved by vaccinating the vulnerable, before a virus hits.“
Usually herd immunity is the natural state when an endemic disease is not spreading as an epidemic. It’s the reason it is not spreading as an epidemic.
Its applicability to vaccination situations is a subset of the general case that is of particular interest obviously to the pharma industry and the medico-fascists.
“Herd immunity is achieved by vaccinating the vulnerable, before a virus hits.”
No it isn’t.
“herd immunity is variant-specific,”
There’s enough crap out there without contributing to it with further myths.
These – as been pointed out – are ‘same-iants’ – not ‘variants’
That’s true to an extent and I know Yeadon strongly believes this. Whether the nature of coronavirus is, much like the common cold, a virus you can get over and over again means immunity is temporary, I think there’s a debate to be had. It does mean we become more resilient and less ill every time we get it of course.
But this non sterilising Inoculation is quite specific in its target, so it seems to me that trying to achieve here immunity with such a non robust treatment makes it a very poor contributor to herd immunity. Indeed it’s likely to prolong the issue and breed new escape variants that make it counterproductive.
This talk from Professor Sucharit Bhakdi confirms that the absolute vast majority were already immune. These academics – especially in the UK – have lost all credibility – I have no respect for anything the UK establishment is dishing out. They’re a bunch of liars and con artists and dupes. Their susceptibility to groupthink and misplaced hubris is the virus, as well as the evil that clearly exists among them. They are spiritually diseased people. Our immune systems had this covered all along, which is why we’re still here, which is why the IFR is so low and why mortality rate is low.
Doctors For Covid Ethics Symposium 7/30/21 – Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi
https://www.bitchute.com/video/2OJocjAu0ORG/
No theyre not. Stop reading nonsense on the internet.
Go take a look on CoG or GISAID where 30 seconds can demonstrate they are not the same.
Of course herd immunity is variant specific. A new dominant variant will spread more easily leading to a higher percentage required for herd immunity. Calculating that percentage is a black art though.
Will.. for the umpteenth time.. the modellers and whoever else is involved know exactly what they’re doing. I’ll repeat that.. they know exactly what they’re doing.. They are following a script and people like you know that too but you don’t have the balls to call them out on it. Instead you prissy around pretending they are ignorant of procedures. Grow a pair!
What I’m worried about now is ADE. Anyone wondering what that is should check out Dr Robert Malone on Twitter. If the jabs do only protect for around six months then that would put the July surge right around the time of waning efficacy for the first jabbed and that’s when ADE would kick in, basically causing reinfections to become more dangerous. The jab could be heading us to REAL catastrophe . I really hope that’s not the case but it would explain the scramble from gov to get boosters ready for Autumn and also why we even HAD a surge in July. We didn’t last year.
It fails to recognise that herd immunity is variant-specific
If the mili-mutations called variants are different enough to cause it to rise and fall, then it means the virus is already endemic. Pandemic is over.
You get seasonal influenza infecting 5-15% of the population every winter (even if it is of the same type like A/H1N1). Guess then you can call them new variants each winter. Each of 4 common-cold coronaviruses rise and fall each year. Guess then they are different variants as well.
It’s quite possible the pandemic phase was already over in 2019 and winter of 2019/20 (no excess deaths then) and then panic and lockdowns started casing excess deaths in 2020 and 2021. Their implementation was in tune to rise and fall of endemic coronavirus19 (which by itself doesn’t cause excess deaths) but due to over-diagnosis of c19 the peaks of excess deaths (caused by lockdowns, etc.) were wrongly attributed to c19.
I do get amused by people quoting such and such a percentage for herd immunity as though it is a given rather than varying with choice of mathematical model and, of course, its parameters.
Brilliant article thank you. It appears we may have the next scariant after boosters are given this autumn unless by some miracle the health authority in this country decides, they are not necessary.
OK Splattt, you seem here to be engaging in a semantic argument about what herd immunity means, so it’s necessary, in order to have any kind of useful discussion, to define the terms used.
My definition is, I think, probably the same as Will is using atl, and it is the one contained in the FAQ to the Great Barrington Declaration, initially signed and co-signed by a dozen professors of epidemiology and approved by tens of thousands of medical professionals and academics:
“herd immunity What is herd immunity?
Herd immunity occurs when enough people have immunity so that most infected people cannot find new uninfected people to infect, leading to the end of the epidemic/pandemic. This means that the epidemic/pandemic will end before everyone is infected, although it will continue in endemic form with low rates of infections.
Do you believe in herd immunity?
Yes. Herd immunity is a scientifically proven phenomenon. To ask an epidemiologist if they believe in herd immunity is like asking a physicist if they believe in gravity. Those who deny herd immunity may also wish to join the flat-earth society.
With COVID-19, can herd immunity be avoided?
No. Sooner or later, herd immunity will be reached either through natural infection or through a combination of vaccinations and natural infection. ”
https://gbdeclaration.org/frequently-asked-questions/
As I also pointed out, that definition fits with the origins of the term, when it was always used to refer to ending epidemic spread, not elimination as you seem to be implying is the meaning that should be used (though these could be equivalent in some particular cases)..
Given that level of professional support and usage, this definition is established beyond honest question as, at the least, a legitimate definition in professional usage.
There might be other definitions (and I’m aware there have been attempts to manipulate the definition of this term to better suit vaccination and pharma business purposes). But it’s up to you now to justify the use of another definition here, since the above one is solidly established, as I have shown.
You’ve made a number of peripheral references to what you believe the term should mean:
“I suspect its unlikely the UK can ever reach a stable herd immunity”
“We don’t have herd immunity against any of the other HCoVs either. Thats why they still exist.“
Etc
This appears to suggest you think the term means some kind of extinction level immunity, which seems rather bizarre.
Regardless, the onus is now upon you, if you wish to sustain your argument, to give the definition you are using and justify it. Linguistically speaking, it’s quite possible for a word to have multiple even contradictory meanings, but you need to give evidence that yours is used at a sufficient level of frequency and authority within the epidemiology profession for it to be accepted as a legitimate alternative to the one I have established above.
It would be so much easier to title this piece ‘What the Modelers do Understand’ and then have a blank page #overpaidrubbish #garbageingarbageout #sackSAGE #Genocidecollaborators
Even though these modellers have been working with imperfect knowledge and imperfect understanding, that has not stopped them making confident predictions. I have long argued that these predictions owe more to political bias than honest science. It is my fervent hope that one day they will be held to account.
Wise politicians would draw a veil over a lot of the output by academics. Unfortunately, they are not wise but are enthralled by things they don’t understand.