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Sunetra Gupta: Lockdown Policy Based on Faith, Not Evidence

by Toby Young
13 August 2021 11:40 AM

Professors Sunetra Gupta and Paul Dolan have written a piece for the Telegraph pointing out that lockdowns were rolled out across the world last March in spite of never having been tried before as a way of mitigating the impact of a pandemic and in spite of no cost-benefit analysis having been done.

As it currently stands, it looks like lockdowns had a small effect but, to some large extent, the path of the virus can be explained by “natural” factors such as the accumulation of herd immunity and seasonal differences in the transmissibility of the virus. Furthermore, while lockdowns may have protected some vulnerable people from exposure to the virus, they may also have placed them at increased risk of future exposure by preventing high levels of herd immunity from establishing broadly across the population.

The profound costs of lockdown have been borne disproportionately by younger people, those with limited social support, those with mental health problems, and those in low-income groups with job insecurity. Some older people have benefitted from lockdown, but perhaps by not as much as would have been hoped for, and without ever inquiring into whether they preferred to be isolated from close family for so long. The most obvious beneficiaries of lockdown, at least insofar as the economic impacts are concerned, are those who can work from home on full pay – such as members of the government and advisory committees like Sage.

There are serious ethical questions about these intergenerational transfers and policies that have served to widen economic inequalities. The public inquiry into Covid must be broad enough to consider the narrowness of the perspectives and experiences involved in making decisions that have had such an unprecedented effect on the economic and emotional wellbeing of the youngest and worst-off members of the population.

The critical question, of course, is whether it would have been possible to reduce the mortality and morbidity risks to the vulnerable population at lower cost than lockdowns? Other options were available, such as focused protection, whereby those most at risk from the virus would have been afforded protection whilst those at low risk would be largely allowed to go about life as normal. But this was dismissed as callous without any evidence to support this claim.

Decision making quickly became more faith based than evidence based. In response to case numbers in the UK falling, Professor Neil Ferguson recently said, “I’m quite happy to be wrong, if it’s wrong in the right direction.” This betrays a complete lack of insight into the welfare consequences of lockdowns. The mainstream advice has been to reduce transmission through lockdowns and if this is wrong, and if lockdowns cause more harm than good, then he is not only wrong, but wrong in the wrong direction so far as human welfare is concerned.

Worth reading in full.

Tags: LockdownsNeil FergusonVoodoo Science

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50 Comments
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realarthurdent
realarthurdent
3 years ago

“lockdowns were rolled out across the world last March in spite of never having been tried before”

It was worse than that. Lockdowns were explicitly recommended against in the WHO pandemic guidelines, re-published less than six months before.

So the WHO clearly had a big think about lockdowns and decided against them, presumably for sound scientific reasons. And governments worldwide ignored the advice. Not only the WHO’s advice, but their own previously developed pandemic plans. The same, incidentally, was true of mask-wearing.

What, or who, changed the governments’ mind? All governments, simultaneously? That is the question that needs to be answered – if we ever get beyond this “pandemic”.

89
0
Amtrup
Amtrup
3 years ago
Reply to  realarthurdent

Yes, absolutely this. This article keeps pulling it’s punches, over and over again/on several critical points.

23
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Old Bill
Old Bill
3 years ago
Reply to  realarthurdent

Not was worse than that, is worse than that.

Canberra full lockdown for 1 case, New Zealand borders closed till 2022 when they have a grand total of 26 deaths!

This has nothing to do with health, it’s conspiracy against the people of the world.

If anybody still believes this is all just a big mistake that will soon go away, they live in fairyland.

49
0
RickH
RickH
3 years ago
Reply to  realarthurdent

“the WHO clearly had a big think about lockdowns”

It depends on what you mean by ‘the WHO’. I think that there is a profound distinction (paralleled in the NHS) between the politiciized leadership of the organisation and the professionals who produced the 2019 strategy.

10
0
tom171uk
tom171uk
3 years ago
Reply to  realarthurdent

Agreed. That really is the fundamental question. I doubt the great cover up will allow it to be answered.

6
0
Julian
Julian
3 years ago

I think “faith based” is generous

I reckon the top advisers and probably the cabinet knew it was all rubbish from very early on if not from the start

It was political

50
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TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  Julian

I think faith might be referring to their belief in their own god-like status in their own minds.

It’s like “the man who would be king”, hopefully

Last edited 3 years ago by TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
10
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Moist Von Lipwig
Moist Von Lipwig
3 years ago
Reply to  Julian

No, it is correct, the bombardment of absurdities cannot be justified in reason, it demands faith.

4
-1
Schrodinger
Schrodinger
3 years ago

I’ve had a lot of respect for their stand in the past but it is a very bold statement to write now “The excellent vaccines we now have ”

when those vaccines have not had any medium or long term testing.

38
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Julian
Julian
3 years ago
Reply to  Schrodinger

They don’t seem overly excellent either

27
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peyrole
peyrole
3 years ago
Reply to  Schrodinger

We have a situation of extreme prejudice. To even get to have your views published you have to toe the policy line and that is most obvious with regard to vaccines. If there is the slightest ‘anti-vax’ flavour in your article you will quickly find its at best ignored and usually cancelled.
So an article basically rerunning the Great Barrington ideas has to appeal to the ongoing policy on vaccines.
Its clear that the reason for so many ‘bad decisions’ were only bad from the perspective of the sane individual wanted to most good for least cost ( not just economic cost). But if your aim was always to introduce a biotech ID system across nations that supported a growing fascist totalitarianism, then the decisions were all ‘good’ as far as that outcome was concerned.

21
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Rogerborg
Rogerborg
3 years ago
Reply to  peyrole

When that line keeps advancing, and you won’t cross it, then you’re in retreat.

That’s a poor way to win an argument, let alone a cultural war.

6
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Hugh
Hugh
3 years ago
Reply to  peyrole

“Usually cancelled”.

That is the great thing, and golden thread of this sites, Toby Young’s deep and genuine commitment to free speech. So whatever you may think personally of his views, you will have a chance to put your own view across, and hopefully give people the information they need to make up their own mind.

5
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jingleballix
jingleballix
3 years ago

Ferguson has a long history of being ‘wrong’……over 20yrs; but remember everything he deals in are predictions – he’s just an ‘octopus’.

His model on foot & mouth disease led to the slaughter of 12-15m farm animals……which in turn cost the tax-payer over £3bn, and private businesses about £5bn…….it caused huge numbers of farmers to sell up and a small number to even commit suicide.

Guess who benefited from the sale of huge acreages fo farm land – Big Agri-business and super-markets.

Ferguson only provided the ‘evidence’…….the driving force was Blair. Everything that Ferguson has done in 20yrs has been at the behest of government instructions – or the influence of those who have funded Imperial College.

Last edited 3 years ago by jingleballix
39
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huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
3 years ago
Reply to  jingleballix

UK COLUMN have a brilliant documentary on the Foot and Mouth fiasco. When you watch it, it is difficult not to conclude that it was a trial run for what we are going through today.

Oh, and as most on here will recall the person in charge at the time was one Tony Bliar.

Coincidence? Conspiracy theory?

Now now.

17
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Hugh
Hugh
3 years ago
Reply to  jingleballix

Imperial? Are those imperialists going to get cancelled? N.B. there are plenty of problems with the very real new forms of imperialism.

4
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Sandra Barwick
Sandra Barwick
3 years ago
Reply to  jingleballix

The influence of his funders. Blair did what he was told be because he was terrified of the political implications. I covered the story for the Telegraph at the time. I remember the expression on Blair’s face as he stood in front of a crowd of desperate, raging. farmers in Carlisle. It was terror.
And yes, Imperial loved its power then.
Pressurise the Government to release the papers on the Foot and Mouth fiasco.

5
0
Rogerborg
Rogerborg
3 years ago

Please, not “lockdown”. The phrase is “criminalisation of all normal human activity by unaccountable, unchecked diktat”.

If you give up on the language, you’ve already ceded the argument.

26
0
Hugh
Hugh
3 years ago
Reply to  Rogerborg

I rather fancy “human rights abuses”, but “lockdown” is widely understood.

4
0
Sandra Barwick
Sandra Barwick
3 years ago
Reply to  Rogerborg

House arrest.

2
0
Beowulf
Beowulf
3 years ago

“Decision making quickly became more faith based than evidence based. ”

Faith is trusting in what you have reason to believe is true. What we have here is at best superstition, which is something else entirely.

9
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Emerald Fox
Emerald Fox
3 years ago
Reply to  Beowulf

“Faith is believing in something you know isn’t true” – The Mosquito Coast by Paul Theroux.

5
-9
Beowulf
Beowulf
3 years ago
Reply to  Emerald Fox

I realise that we are now in an age where the definitions of words are changed to suit, but the definition I gave is what has been the accepted definition for the last 2,000 years in Christian countries. If I were to say I have faith that, in their third bout, Tyson Fury will beat Deontay Wilder, you’re saying that I know that Deontay Wilder will win, but that I nevertheless believe Tyson Fury will win? Or do you not think that I have reason to believe Tyson Fury will win, based on the fact that he beaten Deontay Wilder before and is a far better boxer?

4
0
ebygum
ebygum
3 years ago
Reply to  Beowulf

It’s just a line from a book when all is said and done and up to the reader to decide how it fits with the narrative. It could be being said by someone sarcastically and mean the exact opposite, who knows?
I agree with you, faith usually has some element of trust and belief in it. Like you I have faith in several things, the love of my husband, my fiends and my family to name a few. I think when people say the word faith its immediately assumed to mean some sort of religious faith which I think is a different thing.

2
0
Beowulf
Beowulf
3 years ago
Reply to  ebygum

I don’t think religious faith is any different. Ask someone why they think a sprig of white heather is lucky, I doubt you’ll get a reply from anyone that involved any reason – it’s a superstition. Ask a Theist why they believe in God and you’ll get a number of arguments i.e the moral ontological argument; the KCA etc.

1
0
Julian
Julian
3 years ago
Reply to  Beowulf

I think it’s intrinsically impossible to either prove or disprove the existence of God, therefore belief in God (or being convinced there isn’t one) require faith.

1
-1
Moist Von Lipwig
Moist Von Lipwig
3 years ago
Reply to  Julian

It is impossible to prove something doesn’t exist.

Your post denies man can reason.

0
-1
Beowulf
Beowulf
3 years ago
Reply to  Moist Von Lipwig

That sounds like a variation on the fallacy that you can’t prove a negative.

0
0
Hugh
Hugh
3 years ago
Reply to  Moist Von Lipwig

Reason and truth are key at the end of the day, and certainly key regarding the current shambles. By the same token, it’s impossible to prove that random combination of amino acids has never resulted in a protein. One might suggest some jolly powerful reasons to believe this to be the case though.

0
0
JYC
JYC
3 years ago
Reply to  Julian

The death and resurrection of the Lord Jesus Christ give very good indications of the existence of God.

5
-1
Beowulf
Beowulf
3 years ago
Reply to  Julian

You don’t need to prove that God exists, it’s enough to show that His existence is more plausible that the contrary.

2
0
Hugh
Hugh
3 years ago
Reply to  ebygum

Your fiends?!
(Of course love of one’s fiends is a noble act…)

Last edited 3 years ago by Hugh
1
0
Hugh
Hugh
3 years ago
Reply to  Beowulf

And probably a far better man as well!

0
0
Hugh
Hugh
3 years ago
Reply to  Emerald Fox

Clearly a deluded smart alec. How much do we actually “know” anyway?

0
0
Moist Von Lipwig
Moist Von Lipwig
3 years ago
Reply to  Beowulf

No, faith is belief without evidence

2
0
Beowulf
Beowulf
3 years ago
Reply to  Moist Von Lipwig

No, it’s not. Are you saying that my faith in Tyson Fury’s ability to beat Deontay Wilder is something for which there is evidence?

1
0
Hugh
Hugh
3 years ago
Reply to  Beowulf

Maybe he/she/they is saying it’s not faith but an educated guess?

0
0
Hugh
Hugh
3 years ago
Reply to  Moist Von Lipwig

without proof. Surprisingly little that we can know for sure, it seems to me.

If you mean blind faith of course (and no, that’s not all faith).

Last edited 3 years ago by Hugh
0
0
AethelredTheReadier
AethelredTheReadier
3 years ago
Reply to  Beowulf

It’s sort of mediaeval which also explains the possible witch hunts and persecution of the unvaxd. We really haven’t moved on much from those days despite all our inventions, going to Mars and the internet. Underlying it all, we’re still quaking under a trembling sky, hoping that God doesn’t strike up down dead…

0
0
Catee
Catee
3 years ago

On the bowling green this morning a double jabbed lady collapsed with what looked like a mild stroke or TIA. The paramedics insisted everybody there put masks on, despite us being outside and mostly 40 feet away. Sick of the theatre now, needless to say I’m exempt but everybody else unquestioningly complied.

Last edited 3 years ago by Catee
17
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Hugh
Hugh
3 years ago
Reply to  Catee

Oh, the sort of paramedics who want you to give “Covid safe” CPR (and don’t want you to rescue a girl stuck on a cliff if it breaks health and safety rules)?

6
0
FrankiiB
FrankiiB
3 years ago

When he isn’t censored or no platformed (which is most of the time) Carl Heneghan handles well the abuse hurled at him and steers interviews back to evidence based medicine, which is, after all, his area of expertise.

I think the importance of driving the evidence based approach is probably the best way to hammer home the need for change in the government’s approach. Our next PM must surely act swiftly to change SAGE and fundamentally alter decision making to demand an evidence based approach to all decision making. (I’ve given up on the current PM ever getting there).

18
0
RickH
RickH
3 years ago
Reply to  FrankiiB

The present composition of SAGE is an expression of government policy. Why would they change it?

7
0
Julian
Julian
3 years ago
Reply to  RickH

Dingwall, the only vaguely sceptical member IIRC, was removed. So, yes I think we have to assume that if the government really didn’t like the advice they were getting, they’d have changed the choir or told them to shut up. SAGE have been allow to brief often against the government. It’s hard to imagine that was because the PM belives in freedom of expression – he was furious with Sunak about the travel industry, for example.

7
0
186NO
186NO
3 years ago
Reply to  RickH

Completely and utterly spot on; as Boris has with his unelected spouse and his imitation of Dr Strangelove doing “climate change” ( I cannot believe he is that stupid so what or who else is driving him?), surround yourself with people who are going to tell you what you want to hear ( Shakespeare and other playwrights have examined this character defect as we know). My only issue is what came first with Bozo, as he appears to have not been sold on lockdown until the effects of Covid 19 destroyed his brain and he converted from known sceptic to rabid acolyte…the volte face, if you consider what Cummings has said, appears broadly accurate. Did he have carte blanche with the make up of SAGE or was it a n other(s) – it is too coincidental that SAGE is almost 100% lockdown frenzied/RT-PCR positive case number brainwashed and could not give a toss about the massive long term harm of the strategy they have seen enacted, now that Dingwall has been removed.

3
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
3 years ago
Reply to  FrankiiB

You fail to understand the gravity of our situation.

“Our next PM…?”

Persisting in believing this is cock-up and incompetence is deluded.

5
0
Hugh
Hugh
3 years ago
Reply to  FrankiiB

Though I suspect he/she/they probably won’t, unfortunately

1
0
damage124
damage124
3 years ago

I think the idea of “Lockdown” dates back to the early 60’s when the threat of nuclear war was considered to be a real possibility; particularly in the United States.
Provision needed to be made to restore order as quickly as possible. The populous needed to be fed, receive medical care, feel safe and keep looting and crime to a minimum. Curfews were certainly considered likely and, in certain circumstances, would be extended for longer periods.
What we have witnessed may be what happens when the powers that be use the wrong manual.

2
0
marebobowl
marebobowl
3 years ago

I love dr Sunetra Gupta, and her GBD colleagues, plus Drs Scott Atlas, John Ioannidis, Harvey Risch, Pierre Kory, Simone Gold and so many more and yet a number of these experts still believe the experimental biologicals are the answer for some people, despite the serious adverse events and deaths post vaccination around the world. There is no mention on their behalf of the possibility of something sinister going on with the use of coercion and vaccine passports. May I ask why they are ignoring the massive elephant in the room?

2
0
AethelredTheReadier
AethelredTheReadier
3 years ago
Reply to  marebobowl

Potential ridicule and media wolves looking for a tasty – and easy – snack. These people know full well what is going on. They’re bright, insightful people but in the same breath they are also scientists and doctors and need to be taken seriously on the science and not the implication of government actions. That’s my take on it anyway.

0
0

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