A popular scare story running in the media is that the Greenland ice sheet is about to slip its moorings under ferocious and unprecedented Arctic heat and arrive in the reader’s front room any day now (I exaggerate, but not much). Meanwhile back in the scientific world, scientists are scrambling to understand what natural causes lie behind the sudden slow-down in Greenland’s summer warming and ice loss dating back to 2010. The recovery of Arctic summer sea ice has been spectacular of late, with the U.S.-based National Snow and Ice Data Center reporting that this year’s September minimum was 1.28 million square kilometres higher than the 2012 low point of 3.39 million square kilometres.
Three Japanese climatologists have recently published a paper noting that “frequent occurrence of central Pacific El Niño events has played a key role in the [abrupt] slow-down of Greenland warming and possibly Arctic sea ice loss”. Of course such findings play havoc with the simplistic ‘settled’ science notion that carbon dioxide produced by humans burning fossil fuel is the main, if not only, driver of global temperature warming or cooling – a notion that leads many green activists to claim that the climate will stop changing if society signs on to a ‘Net Zero’ CO2 emissions agenda.
For instance, a bizarre ‘fact check’ on a recently published Daily Sceptic article by Facebook partner Climate Feedback claimed there had been no natural climate change for almost 200 years. It quoted Professor Timothy Osborn of the University of East Anglia, who said: “The warming from the late 1800s to the present is all due to human-caused climate change, because natural factors have changed little since then, and even would have caused a slight cooling over the last 70 years rather than the warming we have observed.”
The Japanese scientists argue that they have been able to show that El Niño natural weather oscillations have driven “atmospheric teleconnection” and shifted the tropical rainfall zone to the north. The higher warming up to 2012 was “accelerated” by heat from the Pacific and a phase in the North Atlantic sea current oscillation that favoured warmer conditions over Greenland and enhanced ice melt. Changes around Greenland can be attributed to “natural variability, rather than anthropogenic forcing”, note the scientists, “although most climate models were unable to reasonably simulate the unforced natural variability over Greenland”.
What the scientists are talking about of course are the huge heat exchanges that regularly change the climate of the Earth. As the Daily Sceptic recently reported, Professor Richard Lindzen of MIT noted that the Earth had many climate regimes, and there have been “profound” changes in temperature between the tropics and the polar regions over millennia. Meteorologist William Kininmonth recently argued that the heat exchanges were little understood, but they are one of the great drivers of climate changes. It might be suggested that these gaps in climate knowledge have allowed a view to take hold, now enforced by rigid Net Zero political control, that CO2 is the only driver of climate change.
The Daily Sceptic recently reported on a series of media scare stories about the Greenland ice sheet that followed publication of a paper in Nature Climate Change. Cherry-picking the one-off record melt year of 2012, and assuming it will be a regular occurrence, delivered a “staggering” 78cm of sea level rise between now and 2100. According to the U.S. meteorologist Anthony Watts, the claims were “false and easily disproved”. In his view they were “just modelled hokum”.
Ice amounts around the Arctic have always been highly cyclical, with periods of substantial melt and freezing common across just a few decades. As we have seen, evidence is starting to build that a recent Arctic low point is in a period of recovery, with a significant trend towards higher surface sea ice becoming apparent from the recent data.
To preserve the fiction that humans are responsible for all recent changes in the climate, it is often argued that the current temperature is the highest for 12,000 years, since the last major ice age started to lift. This is political nonsense-on-stilts, not least because geologists have a phrase for the period when temperatures were much higher than today – the Holocene Thermal Maximum. The latest science paper to show significant higher temperatures comes from a group of geoscientists led by Dr. Katrine Elnegaard Hansen of Aarhus University. According to a précis published by the No Tricks Zone climate site, the Arctic and northern Greenland were 2-4°C warmer than now between 11,700 to 4,500 years ago. Carbon dioxide levels were in the mid 200 parts per million (ppm), compared to today’s 419 ppm, ice-free open waters prevailed, and Greenland warmed 10°C in just 60 years.
Numerous other scientists have discovered equally dramatic temperature changes in the recent past. The graph below was presented by a German broadcaster in 2013 and was compiled from a number of science sources. It shows the overall long-term trend, ending in the current small rebound from the so-called little ice age,
But cyclical changes have also occurred over very short periods. A number of scientists have pointed to an abrupt global multiple degree cooling and warming period that occurred about 8,200 years ago over 150 years. Dr. Takuro Kobashi examined the paleoclimatic records from this time and found a drop of 3°C within two decades, followed by a similar rise over 70 years. Dr. Seren Griffiths of Manchester Met University reported that the event was first identified in Greenland ice cores, but subsequently noted in multiple proxies across Europe. Another abrupt cooling period is said to have occurred about 4,000 years ago.
It is legitimate to conclude from all this under-reported science that it is becoming increasingly difficult to ask us to believe that CO2, and more specifically human-caused CO2, is the only or main climate control thermostat. The evidence suggests that the gas played no such starring role in the previous 11,000 years and more of the paleoclimatic record.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.
Post Script: This article has been subject to various fact-checks, including this one in Agence France-Presse, this one in Reuters and this one in USA Today. Chris Morrison has responded here and here.
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The two-tier approach to arbitration, justice or anything where simple common sense should apply has now been deliberately inverted. The intention is to confuse and throw the population off balance, a sort of crude update to the C1984 crap of masks, social distancing and the ‘safe and effective.’
Off-com like our judicial system is being run from the outside. There is to be no concession to honesty or decency. In fact if a decision can be made which flouts or inverts common sense, honesty and decency then that is the decision that will be made. Thus, GB News challenging the Off-com decision will simply amount to pissing in the wind although they are absolutely right to have a go.
Kneel’s Davos Britain.
The BBC do it every day and counting over the Climate!
GB News voluntarily agrees to be regulated by Ofcom.
Why?
Well exactly, they had their chance with a proper journalist Mark Steyn, but realised they have no spine.
Clearly, the elite is starting to feel a little bit scared of GB News.
Can’t think why, they’ve killed off all the proper journalists and have Neil Oliver safely confined to Youtube.
When attack comes closer to the enemy the flak increases.
“Will Ofcom turn its guns on ITV in the same way it has GB News? Don’t hold your breath”
It may do but will probably do it while kicking & screaming!
They are an utter disgrace.
A little off-topic but has anyone noticed how Yvette ‘Allo ‘Allo Cooper has aged since 5th July whereas 2TKeir looks like he has not lost a night’s sleep since becoming PM.
2TK is IMHO disconnected from the significance of events as they unfold in the world around him with a total empathy by-pass from birth.
He does not understand and it all goes over his head.
This is why he can keep blathering on as if nothing has happened because to him nothing has.
David Starkey has strongly hinted at the reason why, which I reached some time ago.
Keir-Ching! is on the spectrum. He shows no empathy because he doesn’t “understand” it.
I agree and thought so too.
However, let no one be in any confusion about autstic people.
The high functioning verbal ones are used to disguise and cover up the fact the majority are non-verbal autistics who will need help and care and often residential care for the rest of their lives.
And the numbers keep on increasing and it is a real increase.
The increase has causes and no one cares less to find out what the causes are in order to stop this disaster for children.
I was shocked to learn recently from two people independently that autistic children forced into mainstream classrooms commit suicide.
The two people concerned had that distressing direct experience in their class at two different schools.
How much of that is going on I have no idea and I’ll bet the DfE keeps not records nor statistics of how common it is.
But to encounter two people simultaneously at the same time at the same place who told of each experiencing exactly the same is either a bizarre coincidence or suggests this is more common than anyone realises.
Spot on! It’s the emotionless facial expression that is the giveaway! He just doesn’t ”get it”!
PS 2TK’s insistence the Southport and other ‘riots‘ were by the ‘Far Right‘ is also consistent with his disconnect.
He just does not understand and explains it all away with a dismissive simplistic ‘they’re all Far Right‘ when he was entirely Far Wrong as usual.
Additionally, when he tipped up in Southport to lay his wreath or bunch of flowers or whatever it was it was all clumsily done and so obviously pre-planned and orchestrated as a semi-formal sort of ceremony.
Again, consistent with a man who has no conception of the significance of events happening around him.
He is wholly unable to do anything ex tempore, being incapable of spontaneity.
Everything has to be planned in advance.
This is also consistent with his inability to respond at all to Rishi Sunak’s challenges and questions when they were in a TV debate together.
‘Muppet’ comes to mind but whose hand is it up his arse pulling all the strings?
The Establishment is obviously getting very nervous about GB News.
Leading Labour politicians and Ministers now have no option but to appear on it and be interviewed when previously they could not be bothered.
Let us hope GB News will continue to address the issues other news media do not.
Will other news media ever realise that is major factor in GB News’ success? They probably already have but just carry on regardless as they have always done.
Sue Offcom?