What Follows Trump After the Dems Win in November?

Political Betting is a weekly column by Mark Littlewood aimed at people who like gambling on politics.

There won’t be an election in the United Kingdom this November. Fevered speculation has finally been quashed by Andy Burnham, in a very rare display of decisiveness.

However, over on the other side of the pond, significant elections will take place on November 3rd as American voters go the polls in the most significant vote in the USA since Trump defeated Harris to become the 47th President two years ago.

The mid-terms look like being somewhere between a heavy defeat and a bloodbath for the Republicans. Thirty-five Senate seats are up for grabs, as are all slots in the House of Representatives. Congressmen (there are 435 of them in the House of Representatives) only serve a two-year term so are almost permanently in election mode if they are in competitive districts. Senators (of whom there are 100) serve six years and are elected by thirds every couple of years.

Although not designed to do so, the way the electoral system works in the USA favours the modern Republican Party in both Senate and Presidential elections. The Senate is comprised of two members per state. Therefore, the Democrats’ tally in the massive states of California and New York (a total of four) is easily beaten by the Republicans dominance in the lightly populated states such as Wyoming, Idaho, Nebraska, Montana and North and South Dakota (a total of a dozen). The ratio of Senate seats in these areas tends to favour the GOP by 3:1 even though on a headcount, those Democrat-inclined states represent more voters by a ratio of about 8:1.

Because the Republicans tend to do well in relatively small states, this means they can expect to win Senate elections and Presidential elections even if the total national vote tally is slightly against them. In fact, in a Presidential election, the Republican candidate could lose the overall popular vote by as much as two or even three percentage points and still reasonably expect to make it to the White House.

Because of the way the US election cycle works (unlike here in the UK there is no King from whom to request an early election), whoever wins the Presidency is likely to find favourable results ‘down ballot’. Hence, the Republicans find themselves in very narrow control of the House of Representatives thanks in large part to Trump beating Harris win 2024. Although there is some ‘split ticket’ voting, whichever party wins the Presidential election can expect to do well in the Senate and House of Reps elections held on the same day – generally speaking, those who go to the polling station will vote for the same party right the way from President all the way down to the local dogcatcher.

The ‘mid-terms’ though have no such overarching top-of-the-ticket ripple effect.

All of the evidence suggests that the Democrats are going to take control of the House of Representatives in the all-out elections for that chamber (it frankly would be a miracle if they didn’t – they are a general 1/10). But they also look likely to take the Senate, despite the present balance placing them 53-47 behind and only a third of seats being up for grabs. This is measurably less certain than the Democrats taking the House, but the Republicans are having to put a serious effort in states which should be considered nailed on to be in the GOP column. Vast numbers of millions are even being spent to defend Kansas which hasn’t flipped in the Democrat direction for nearly a century.

The Democrats are favourites to pick up a Senate seat in Texas (a general 4/6), heavy odds on to win in the swing state of Michigan (1/2 or tighter) and about an evens bet to win in Iowa (a state Trump won by 13% in 2024).

From a betting perspective, the smart money is to back a Democratic sweep (winning both the House and the Senate), generally available at 3/5 on the exchanges. I’m not usually a short odds gambler, but a 60% return in just six weeks on an outcome I’d attach about an 85% chance to is too good to ignore.

If my instincts are right, this November will effectively usher in the beginning of the end of the Trump era. He has been the defining figure of American politics for well over a decade. He has realigned the entire party system and has remade the Republican Party into a wholly different beast. He won the GOP nomination for President three times in a row by a country mile every time and became only the second man in history to come back as President having lost an election. The Democrats are having to redefine themselves entirely as a result.

The Democrats won’t win in November on any sort of positive platform. The rise of the Democratic Socialist faction will be anathema to the vast majority of the American electorate. However, they will probably triumph on a broad ‘temper Trump’ attitude amongst the American public. If Trump finds Congress against him, he will struggle to get much done in the last two years of his Presidency.

Before long – and despite the President’s unerring ability to suck oxygen away from every other public commentator and command the entire news agenda himself – the discussion will turn to what comes next.

The so-called ‘country club’ Republicans will be hoping that the Trump dominance of their party will go down as a wild aberration and things will snap back into ‘normality’ as soon as he’s gone. They are likely to be disappointed. MAGA is a phenomenon created by Donald J. Trump but it will last far beyond his Presidency even if there is, inevitably, a new carrier of the torch.

The last four Presidential have seen zero continuity of the party in the White House – they have gone Democrat, Republican, Democrat, Republican. This sort of four-cycle rotation has only happened once before in American history (when, in the late 19th century, Grover Cleveland became the only man other than Trump to serve as President in non-consecutive terms).

Just because politics is febrile everywhere in the West, it doesn’t mean that this cycle of disgruntlement will continue. If you want a quick return on your money, back the Democrat sweep in November. If you fancy a longer-term, longer odds bet, the 13/8 that a Republican will win the White House in 2028 represents incredible value.

Mark Littlewood is a former Director of the Institute of Economic Affairs and the Director of PopCon.