Monday, 9th August 2021
PHE Data Confirms That New Infections Peaked and Dropped in the Unvaccinated Before They Did in the Vaccinated
By Will Jones
Back in early July I noted that data from the ZOE Covid Symptom Study was showing that new infections in the unvaccinated were peaking and falling while those in the vaccinated were still surging.
This was not a phenomenon noted elsewhere and prompted questions about whether it showed that the vaccines were delaying infection, or whether it was primarily an age-based phenomenon. Unfortunately, before anyone was able to investigate further, within a couple of weeks ZOE had ‘updated‘ their methodology and in their new data the phenomenon had oddly disappeared.
This left questions as to whether it had been entirely an artefact of problems with their previous methodology or whether it had been a real phenomenon.
PHE data from the three most recent technical briefings (18, 19 and 20) allow us now to answer this question. Above (top of page) are the Delta case counts for the period July 6th to July 19th and then July 20th to August 2nd, broken down by vaccination status and age. (Actually, it’s not clear whether the initial date is July 6th or another date around then as briefing 18 appears to have a typo and says its data runs up to June 21st, even though briefing 17 also had data up to June 21st and the figures in briefing 18 are higher. However, for the purpose of this analysis it’s not important exactly what the start date is, and I have used July 6th as that is what it would be assuming briefing 18 has the equivalent date to the other briefings.)
The key lines to look at in the chart are the grey and yellow lines. They show that in the under-50s, Delta cases in the unvaccinated dramatically declined between early July and late July whereas those in the vaccinated (at least 21 days after the first dose) were stable. In the second half of the month there were actually more infections in the vaccinated of all ages than in the unvaccinated (the light blue and orange lines).
This was the period when new infections nationwide peaked (on July 17th, by report date) and dropped quickly. This new analysis allows us to see that this fast drop was entirely in the unvaccinated under-50s (presumably the result of reaching herd immunity for the Delta variant). Infections in the vaccinated of all ages (and the unvaccinated over-50s) did not fall at the same time but remained stable. This helps explain why the drop ended around July 28th (by report date) and new infections have currently plateaued. What we are experiencing now is the ‘wave’ of infections largely in the vaccinated (along with the unvaccinated over-50s).
We can’t be sure that the explanation of the phenomenon is that the vaccines delayed infection. Another possibility is that the early surge was in the younger, less vaccinated portion of the under-50s (i.e., people under-30). What we really need is a finer breakdown by age. Unfortunately, despite all the data published during this crisis, very little of it is properly broken down by both vaccination status and age to allow us to do this kind of analysis.
Nonetheless, this confirms that ‘old ZOE’ was right to show infections in the unvaccinated falling during July while those in the vaccinated did not. The fact that ‘new ZOE’ no longer shows this phenomenon once again leads to questions about what changes were made and why, and whether the new methodology is really more reliable, or just more politically acceptable.
Pubs Could Be Forced to Reintroduce Social Distancing During ‘Covid Surges’ if They Don’t Check Vaccine Passports
Rather than forcing hospitality venues to check vaccine passports later this year, the Government is considering giving pubs and restaurants a ‘choice’: check the vaccination status of customers or reintroduce social distancing (that is, massively reduce profits) during ‘Covid surges’. The Telegraph has the story.
The idea is being looked at as an alternative to changing the law to mandate vaccine passports – a tougher stance that Boris Johnson warned could be adopted next month.
Under the latest proposal, venues with large indoor crowds would not be forced to adopt vaccine passports but would be offered incentives to adopt them instead.
This could include being able to stay open at full capacity, rather than only being allowed to conduct table service and have no punters at bars, if there is another Covid wave.
One adviser to a Cabinet minister said the idea was being discussed, saying that there was now momentum inside the Government behind some form of Covid certification this autumn.
A similar proposal had been considered by a review led by Michael Gove into Covid certification earlier in the year but was dropped as daily cases fell during the spring. …
But Mark Harper, who leads the Covid Recovery Group of lockdown-sceptic Tory MPs, criticised the Government for considering any form of vaccine passport in a domestic setting.
Mr Harper said: “Given our very high uptake of vaccination, especially among the groups vulnerable to Covid, what problem are these disproportionate ideas trying to solve?
“I’m surprised the Government is even suggesting it – it’s almost like they don’t believe that our vaccines work. Just the suggestion will damage business confidence.
“The case for vaccine passports is not backed up by evidence from the Government’s own events research programme. Ministers would be wise to drop these threats now and focus on continuing to encourage vaccination through positive public health messages.”
Worth reading in full.
Universities to Continue Holding Online Lectures and Will Tell Students to Wear Face Masks and to Follow Social Distancing
Many students hoping to begin a normal university term this autumn will be disappointed to find that, while the Covid figures give cause for restrictions to be abandoned, very little will actually change from last year.
Almost all of the leading Russel Group universities have indicated that a proportion of their teaching will continue to be held online while students will still be expected to wear face masks on campuses and to continue social distancing. Not to mention the impending introduction of vaccine passports. The Sunday Times has the story.
The universities’ decision coincides with a clear fall in Covid cases. Even normally cautious scientists, such as Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, said that lockdowns and other restrictive measures were unlikely to be needed again.
Of the leading 24 Russell Group universities, 20 said that a proportion of undergraduate teaching will continue to be held online.
Lord Baker of Dorking, the former Conservative Education Secretary, said the universities stance was “outrageous”, and that they must return to normal as a matter of urgency this autumn. “Pubs, cinemas, theatres and football matches have all opened without restrictions,” he said. “What’s different about universities?”
University College London, the London School of Economics, Imperial College, Cardiff and Leeds all said that lectures would continue to be held online.
Warwick, Nottingham, Manchester, Glasgow and Edinburgh said they would offer “blended learning” – a mix of online and face-to-face teaching for classes, seminars and lectures – but were unable to guarantee how much in-person teaching students would receive. Nottingham said it hoped to restart full face-to-face teaching next year, “subject to the course of the pandemic”.
Demands that free masks and free PCR tests be handed out to students and used are being led by the Universities and Colleges Union, which is also demanding social distancing on campus and that students get double jabbed. …
Cambridge said most teaching would be in person, but that some would be online, with details to be confirmed. Oxford said it planned most learning in person “enhanced by online teaching” and said some exams would continue to be held online next year.
Students at Manchester, Leeds and Liverpool have already launched petitions calling for a full return to “normality in terms of teaching” and demanding fee refunds. At Manchester, where some of the strictest lockdowns took place, nearly 10,000 have signed. Many students are still waiting to hear details of how their degree courses are to be taught when term starts next month. …
The Department for Education said: “Education providers are able to shape their courses without restrictions on face-to-face provision.”
Worth reading in full.
NHS Waiting List Could Hit 14 Million in England by Next Autumn, According to IFS Report
A new report by the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) says that the NHS waiting list in England could reach 14 million by next autumn and could then continue to increase “as the number joining the waiting list exceeds the number being treated”. And this, according to the author of the report, is just the beginning: “Much longer waiting lists [could] be with us for years to come.” Sky News has the story.
Currently, the number of people waiting to start routine hospital treatment is at a record high – 5.3 million, according to latest figures.
But the IFS has warned in its new report that there is a massive backlog of people still to come forward for treatment, largely caused by Covid [what about lockdown?].
Health Secretary Sajid Javid said the number of people on waiting lists could rise to 13 million in the coming months, but the IFS projects that the total could eventually surpass the Health Secretary’s figure.
“In our first scenario, 80% of the approximately seven million ‘missing’ patients return over the next year, the NHS operates at 90% of its 2019 capacity this year and next, and then at 100% capacity from 2023 onwards,” it says.
“Under this scenario, waiting lists would soar to 14 million by the autumn of 2022 and then continue to climb, as the number joining the waiting list exceeds the number being treated.”
The IFS said while it is unlikely all patients will return due to the fact some will have died and others might have had private treatment, most will probably require treatment at some point soon, especially as virus cases decrease and “people are more willing to seek health care”.
Max Warner, the author of the analysis, said: “There is a real risk that if the NHS cannot find effective ways to boost its capacity – a challenge at the best of times, let alone after a major pandemic – then much longer waiting lists will be with us for years to come.”
Worth reading in full.
News Round-Up
- “U.K. Health Department plan for return to office working put on hold” – The Department of Health and Social Care is not exatly leading by example when it comes to ending work from home rules, having scrapped its timetable requiring civil servants to be in offices for up to eight days a month from September.
- “Minister wants to slash wages of civil servants not in office” – A Cabinet minister has suggested that civil servants who refuse to return to the office should be paid less than those back at their desks, reports the Mail.
- “Covid PCR costs can be excessive and exploitative, says Javid” – The Health Secretary calls on a watchdog to investigate “exploitative” firms overcharging holidaymakers for Covid tests, reports BBC News.
- “Will Covid turn into the common cold?” – “There are reasonable grounds to believe that the Delta variant may be the virus’s end point,” writes Paul Hunter in the Spectator.
- “Workers ignore Sunak’s ‘back to the office’ call” – Staff are embracing the ‘remote working revolution’, but economists warn that a slow return to city centres will hurt our economic recovery, reports the Telegraph.
- “Companies Thought They Had Plans for Fall. Now They Are Scrapping Them” – The return to the office isn’t just being slowed in the U.K. Fears over the Delta variant has U.S. managers revamping schedules, with bosses delaying office reopenings and canceling events, reports the Wall Street Journal.
- “Ditch the travel traffic light system, says former head of vaccine taskforce” – Current border arrangements are too complicated given the high proportion of the U.K. adult population that is vaccinated, says Clive Dix, as reported in the Telegraph.
- “Macron grapples with new ‘gilets jaunes’ protests against vaccine passports” – President Emmanuel Macron faces increasing backlash over France’s controversial health pass brought in to boost a lagging pace of vaccinations, reports the Telegraph.
- “Holiday chaos for Britons heading to France” – Brits hoping for a peaceful holiday in France will have to prove they are fully vaccinated for everything – from a trip up the Eiffel Tower to a glass of wine on an outdoor terrace, reports the Mail.
- “CDC Study on 12 to 17 Year-Olds Who Got Pfizer Vaccine: 397 Reports of Heart Inflammation, 14 Deaths” – A study released last week by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed 9,246 adverse events reported among adolescents aged 12 to 17, including 863 serious events, 14 deaths and 397 reports of myocarditis, reports the Defender.
- “Brisbane man ‘suffers heart attack’ after being arrested for not wearing a mask” – A video of a man apparently having a seizure after being arrested for not wearing a mask has caused outrage on social media, reports Sky News Australia.
- “NHS still not recognising British citizens’ overseas Covid jabs, says peer” – Lord Paddick accuses the Government of “broken promises” after Pfizer jabs received in Norway go unrecognised by the NHS, reports the Guardian.
- “Covid variants could be named after constellations once Greek alphabet is used up, WHO official says” – The World Health Organisation is looking to name new Covid variants after constellations because “we will possibly run out of the Greek alphabet”, reports Sky News.
- “QPR 1-1 Millwall” – “I don’t think I’ve ever seen so many place vans in Shepherd’s Bush before, even when QPR have been playing Millwall. Was it because it was the first time most fans had been able to attend a game since March 2020? Were the police expecting a post-lockdown release of pent up energy,” asks Toby in his latest Pride of West London substack entry.
- “Boris and Rishi at war over green agenda” – Chancellor Rishi Sunak is thought to be leading the push-back against Boris Johnson’s commitment to go net-zero by 2050, fearing it will spark a cost-of-living crisis with energy bills already on the rise, reports MailOnline.
- “Olympics TV ratings plummet by 49% compared to 2016 games” – There has been a significant decline in Olympic viewership this year compared to previous games thanks, of course, to lockdowns but also to woke protests, reports MailOnline.
- “Woke Barbie dolls” – “What sort of political fruit will our current cradle to grave woke indoctrination produce,” asks Collingwood in Bournbrook Magazine.
- “The America I grew up in is disappearing into a vortex of identity politics” – At this rate the future generation of doctors may well be better equipped to offer a politics lecture than save one’s life, writes Zoe Strimpel in the Sunday Telegraph.
- “Food blogger says it’s time to cancel ‘British colonial’ term curry” – “We’re still using this umbrella term popularised by white people who couldn’t be bothered to learn the actual names of our dishes. But we can still unlearn,” says a food blogger who calls on people to “cancel the word curry” in a video viewed millions of times online.
- “My fight for free speech” – “I was fired for supporting Brexit – justice has finally been served,” writes former Fire Bridge Union Leader Paul Embery in UnHerd.
- “These dusty well-paid professors have used the pandemic to scale back their service” – Talking on GB News, Mark Dolan takes aim at university chiefs using Covid as an excuse to continue online ‘learning’.