114194
The Weekly Sceptic Live The Weekly Sceptic Live The Weekly Sceptic Live
  • Log in
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Forum
  • Donate
  • Newsletter
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result

Another Desperate Met Office Attempt to Stoke 1.5C Global Warming Fear

by Chris Morrison
14 May 2022 7:00 AM

Britain’s Met Office says it is a 50-50 call that one of the next five years will see global temperatures leap by almost half a degree centigrade to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The tidings were of course faithfully reported by mainstream media, keen, as always, to support the political messaging behind Net Zero. But curiously missing from the coverage was the fact that the absurd prediction relies on a base of heavily adjusted past temperature records, and the future occurrence of one of the most powerful natural El Niño weather fluctuations ever observed.

It is on El Niño that the bet mostly relies. A powerful fluctuation in 2016 ended a lengthy temperature pause and raised the reading temporarily by up to 0.2°C. El Niños are natural weather fluctuations that draw heat from the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and distribute it around the atmosphere. There was also a powerful El Niño spike in 1998 and since that date, global warming has run out of steam.

Not at the Met Office of course. As we have reported, the Met Office removed an off-message pause from around 1998 by two major adjustments in 2013 and 2020 to its HadCRUT global temperature database. In total, the adjustments added about 30% more recent warming. This trend was exacerbated by cooling the temperatures recorded earlier in the 20th century. Similar adjustments were made by other important global temperature datasets. All surface datasets are complex blends of reported temperatures, proxies, estimates and modelled data.

A recent essay in the Watts Up With That climate science site run by the American meteorologist Anthony Watts clearly shows the adjustments. First we look at the satellite data, generally considered the most accurate representation of global temperature.

The near flatline from around 1998 is clearly shown along with the El Niño jump in 2016. Since that one-off event, the line moves sharply downwards. The University of Alabama in Huntsville data is part compiled by Dr. Roy Spencer and appears every month on his personal web page. This site was recently demonetised by Google AdSense on the grounds he published “unreliable and harmful claims”.

Now consider the Met Office latest database.

The near flatline of the satellite record has become a pronounced rise, while the decline since 2016 is less steep. A comparison of the two graphs shows that HadCRUT has doubled the warming revealed by the satellites.

But the Met Office is not the record that differs most from the satellites. Here is the graph for the NASA GISS database.

There is a massive improvement here for Thermogeddon fans. There is much more warming over the last 25 years at NASA, and the added bonus that the temperature has continued to rise since 2016.

If the Met Office ’50-50′ call is to come true, the lines on all three graphs would have to rise near vertically almost off the page. Global warming is unlikely to provide a boost and it can be argued it is a 50-50 call that temperatures will start to fall. All that is left it seems is a hope that the largest El Niño ever recorded will come riding to the rescue. Absurd, doesn’t begin to cover it.

Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor

Tags: Climate Alarmismclimate changeEl NinoGlobal WarmingMet Office

Donate

We depend on your donations to keep this site going. Please give what you can.

Donate Today

Comment on this Article

You’ll need to set up an account to comment if you don’t already have one. We ask for a minimum donation of £5 if you'd like to make a comment or post in our Forums.

Sign Up
Previous Post

News Round-Up

Next Post

“The Government Does Not Plan to Close Borders or Stop Mass Gatherings During Any Pandemic” – Why Did Britain Throw Away its Pandemic Plan?

Subscribe
Login
Notify of
Please log in to comment

Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.

93 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

 

DONATE

PODCAST

Nick Dixon and Toby Young Talk About the Attack on Kellie-Jay Keen by Trans Rights Activists, the BBC’s Perverse Insistence on Calling a Rapist “Her” and the Brutal Cancellation of Alfie Brown

by Will Jones
28 March 2023
3

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editors Picks

Net Zero is Coming Apart Before Our Very Eyes

30 March 2023
by Chris Morrison

News Round-Up

30 March 2023
by Will Jones

COVID-19 Not Responsible for “Explosion” in Heart Deaths, Major Autopsy Study Shows. “Must Be the Vaccine,” Says Top Heart Doctor

29 March 2023
by Will Jones

Whopping 82% of Berlin’s Voters Refuse to Support Net Zero 2030 as Referendum Fails

30 March 2023
by Will Jones

‘Trans Day of Vengeance’ to Go Ahead in D.C. Despite School Massacre by Trans Activist

30 March 2023
by Will Jones

‘Trans Day of Vengeance’ to Go Ahead in D.C. Despite School Massacre by Trans Activist

28

Whopping 82% of Berlin’s Voters Refuse to Support Net Zero 2030 as Referendum Fails

24

News Round-Up

23

Majority of Public Unhappy with NHS for First Time, Survey Finds

42

Net Zero is Coming Apart Before Our Very Eyes

20

Net Zero is Coming Apart Before Our Very Eyes

30 March 2023
by Chris Morrison

COVID-19 Not Responsible for “Explosion” in Heart Deaths, Major Autopsy Study Shows. “Must Be the Vaccine,” Says Top Heart Doctor

29 March 2023
by Will Jones

Findings From a New Faculty Free Speech Survey

29 March 2023
by Noah Carl

In Defence of Andrew Bridgen’s Speech to Parliament on the Risks vs Benefits of Covid Vaccination

28 March 2023
by Norman Fenton, Clare Craig, Martin Neil, Jonathan Engler and Mr Law

The Dumb Chain of Events that Brought Face Mask Tyranny to the West

28 March 2023
by Eugyppius

POSTS BY DATE

May 2022
M T W T F S S
 1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
3031  
« Apr   Jun »

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union
  • Home
  • About us
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

RSS

Subscribe to our newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Forum
  • Donate
  • Newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Create New Account!

Please note: To be able to comment on our articles you'll need to be a registered donor

Already have an account?
Please click here to login Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
wpDiscuz
You are going to send email to

Move Comment