76068
  • Log in
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Forum
  • Donate
  • Newsletter
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result

Does Population Density Explain COVID-19 Death Rates in Europe?

by Noah Carl
26 August 2021 10:48 AM

What explains the variation in COVID-19 death rates across European countries? One factor that has been mentioned since early on in the pandemic is population density.

As a BBC article from May of 2020 states: “We know that the density of population is important for the spreading of coronavirus.” The article compares the U.K. and Italy, noting that “the U.K. is considerably more densely populated”.

And indeed, it seems plausible that the virus would spread more easily in areas where people are crammed tightly together than in areas they’re spread further apart. For example, aerosols might linger in the elevator in a multi-storey building, whereas they’re unlikely to travel between one semi-detached house and the next.

This raises the question of how to measure population density at the level of whole countries. The simplest measure is the just the number of people divided by the total land area.

However, this measure doesn’t take account of urbanisation. An ostensibly sparse country could have vast swathes of land where nobody lives. So while the average population density would be low, the majority of people might still be crammed tightly together in cities.

An alternative measure, population-weighted density, is provided by the E.U.’s Urban Data Platform. To calculate this measure for a particular country, the country is first divided into ‘parcels’ of 1km2. The population density within each parcel is computed. Then the weighted average is taken, with weights equal to the population of each parcel.

For example, suppose a country comprises ten parcels, nine of which are completely empty and one of which has a population of 100 people. The average density would be only 10/km2, but the weighted density would be 100/km2.

Using average population density, the densest country in Europe is the Netherlands. But using the UDP’s measure of weighted density, the densest country is actually Spain. (And contrary to the aforementioned BBC article, Italy is slightly denser than the U.K.) While this might seem counter-intuitive, it is consistent with other evidence.

The map below (which was created by the geographer Duncan Smith) shows the distribution of people across Europe at a fine level of detail. Light green and turquoise shades reflect low and moderate population densities; blue shades reflect high population densities.

In Spain, most of the country is unoccupied, but there are a few highly dense areas corresponding to Madrid and other major cities. In Germany, by contrast, there are a much large number of moderately dense areas. As a matter of fact, four of Europe’s five densest cities are in Spain.

As the statistician Alasdair Rae notes: “Spain contains within it more than 505,000 1km squares. But only 13% of them are lived in… So even though the settlement pattern appears sparse, people are actually quite tightly packed together.” (By way of comparison, 60% of Germany’s 357,000 1km squares are lived in.)

I checked to see whether the UDP’s measure of weighted density is associated with COVID-19 death rates across European countries. Two measures of COVID-19 death rates were used: COVID-19 deaths per million up to August 10th, 2021; and age-adjusted excess mortality up to week 51 of 2020. Results are shown below:

There is no relationship on the left-hand chart. And while there is a moderate positive relationship on the right-hand chart, it is mostly driven by Spain (which has both high population density and high age-adjusted excess mortality). When Spain was removed from the analysis, the relationship became substantially weaker.

Earlier in the pandemic, Philippe Lemoine looked at whether weighted density was associated with COVID-19 death rates across European countries, but found “no clear relationship”.

Note that these analyses are highly simplified (and should not be taken as anything definitive). It is plausible that in a multivariate analysis based on a larger sample of countries, clear evidence for an independent effect of population density would emerge.

However, if the true effect of population density were large, you’d expect to find it even in a relatively simple analysis. This suggests that, while population density probably does matter, it’s not the most important factor affecting COVID-19 death rates in Europe.  

Tags: Deaths-per-millionEuropePopulation density

Donate

We depend on your donations to keep this site going. Please give what you can.

Donate Today

Comment on this Article

You’ll need to set up an account to comment if you don’t already have one. We ask for a minimum donation of £5 if you'd like to make a comment or post in our Forums.

Sign Up
Previous Post

News Round-Up

Next Post

Fewer Cars Produced Last Month by British Factories Than in Any July Since 1956

Subscribe
Login
Notify of
Please log in to comment

Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.

88 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

 

DONATE

PODCAST

Nick Dixon and Toby Young Talk About the ‘Far Right’ Unrest in Dublin, Geert Wilders Winning in the Netherlands and Tommy Robinson Getting Arrested at the March Against Antisemitism

by Will Jones
28 November 2023
8

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editors Picks

News Round-Up

2 December 2023
by Toby Young

King Charles Delivers Highly-Politicised Speech to Support Collectivist Net Zero Project

2 December 2023
by Chris Morrison

In What Moral Universe Can Owen Jones Watch the Hamas Massacre Video – Then Sow Seeds of Doubt About its Horrors?

2 December 2023
by Toby Young

Texas Sues Pfizer for Lying About Vaccine Effectiveness and Conspiracy to Censor Discussions

1 December 2023
by Igor Chudov

My Battle With the Church of England Over its Obsession With ‘Climate Change’

1 December 2023
by Kevin Sims

King Charles Delivers Highly-Politicised Speech to Support Collectivist Net Zero Project

65

In What Moral Universe Can Owen Jones Watch the Hamas Massacre Video – Then Sow Seeds of Doubt About its Horrors?

59

News Round-Up

42

My Battle With the Church of England Over its Obsession With ‘Climate Change’

36

The Hallett Inquiry Is Pointless if It Refuses to Consider the Fact That Covid Was Clearly the Result of Genetic Engineering in China

31

It’s Not That Ministers Can’t Control Their Civil Servants – They Can’t Even Influence Them

2 December 2023
by Ian Price

The Federal Government Paid Media Outlets to Promote the Covid Vaccine

2 December 2023
by Rav Arora

Texas Sues Pfizer for Lying About Vaccine Effectiveness and Conspiracy to Censor Discussions

1 December 2023
by Igor Chudov

Fears of ‘Civil War’ as French Nationalist Groups Clash with Migrants After Village Party Knife Attack

1 December 2023
by Robert Kogon

Lockdowns Behind Exodus From Africa Driving Mass Immigration, Survey Shows

1 December 2023
by Nick Rendell

POSTS BY DATE

August 2021
M T W T F S S
 1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
3031  
« Jul   Sep »

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union
  • Home
  • About us
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

RSS

Subscribe to our newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Forum
  • Donate
  • Newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Create New Account!

Please note: To be able to comment on our articles you'll need to be a registered donor

Already have an account?
Please click here to login Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
wpDiscuz
You are going to send email to

Move Comment