I’ve written before about the overestimation of the pandemic’s death toll in Britain. If you compare the official number of deaths with Covid on the death certificate to the number of excess deaths since March of 2020, you find the latter is about 20% lower. And due to population ageing, even that figure’s an overestimate.
I recently came across another powerful way of showing that the official death count is overstated. (The idea comes from veteran lockdown sceptic and Nobel Prize winner, Michael Levitt.)
Take the two-month period from the beginning of March to the end of April 2021. According to ONS data, age-adjusted excess mortality was –9%, meaning that the overall level of mortality was 9% lower than the five-year average. This can be seen in the chart below, published by the ONS in October:
Each line represents the cumulative age-standardised mortality rate as a percentage of the five-year average. Notice that all three lines begin sloping downward in March of 2021. Since the number plotted is cumulative, this can only happen if the age-standardised mortality rate was below the five-year average at the time.
Okay, so from March to April of 2021, there were significantly fewer deaths than you’d expect. Yet if we turn to the Government’s Covid dashboard, and check deaths in England for the same time period, we see that there were a substantial number:
The red lines mark the beginning of March and the end of April, respectively. Over this period, no less than 4,337 deaths with Covid on the death certificate were recorded in England.
On the one hand, the overall level of mortality was 9% lower than expected. But on the other, there were 4,337 deaths from Covid. What explains this disparity?
A lot of the people who died with Covid on their death certificate would have died anyway. Either Covid didn’t play a causal role in their death; or it did, but they would have died of something else in the absence of Covid (such as seasonal flu).
Note: I’m not claiming that all or even most Covid deaths would have happened anyway. There’s clear evidence that the pandemic killed people, especially during the spring of 2020. But there’s no use in overestimating the pandemic’s death toll. We actually want to get right.
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What should also be looked at is the age distribution of those excess deaths. In the same way the “quality years of life lost” are used to assess the cost/benefit of a proposed treatment, maybe the same strategy should be used regarding excess deaths.
Coldly logical it may seem, but 10 extra “died suddenly” events in school children (10 x 70 years lost) is far worse than 100 “died suddenly” events in octogenarians (100 x 5 years lost), for example.
Whether or not QUALYs lost is a measure of quality, it is useful as a measure of something badly wrong. You don’t have to put a figure on a child’s life to know that children dying is abnormal and bad.
See here
In addition to excess deaths since the summer of 2022, there’s this – posted here by ebygum a couple of weeks ago, which deserves repeating – it’s a recent report by the obviously highly reputable Institute for Fiscal Studies:
“In summer 2021, each month 15,000 or so working-age people started a PIP claim. That monthly figure had remained little changed for years. It then steadily increased, such that by July 2022 (the latest data) it had doubled to 30,000. This report investigates the increase.”
Why would this be happening?
https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2022-12/The-number-of-new-disability-claimants-has-doubled-in-a-year-IFS-report-R233.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1k-a8Om62k8oxzlRqcMbmBf9Rk-JKuIMNvnWST-i3VmnM8SnJtbenITyw
Yes…it seems to me that there is confirmation evidence to show that deaths and injuries are excessive…and it’s coming, not just from Government ONS or UKHSA, but from different data sets….like the PIP claims, and insurance claims for instance….
I’ve posted Dr John Campbells video below in my comment…for UK/insurance…
..this is from the USA insurance stats’…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/where-did-all-workers-go
Clearly prior to 2020 mortality was coming down and coming down at a rate greater than the effects of increasing population size and an ageing population, and so raw death numbers were numerically reducing too. That trend couldn’t continue for ever or else based on that existing trend we’d all be immortal at some time in the future, but at the same time an abrupt turnaround couldn’t be expected.
What has always surprised me is that people have been living for longer. I’ve never understood why that was in the context of a population of seemingly worsening health with higher metabolic illness. I’ve tentatively put it down to us being better at prolonging life at the very end of life rather than increasing healthy lifespan. But the honest answer is I don’t know.
Without understanding why mortality has been coming down to 2019, it’s hard to say how long we would have expected the trend to continue. But to assume a future trend of no improvement after such a long period of mortality improvement seems a strange starting assumption for Noah Carl to be using, but that ultimately is the assumption he’s using in claiming 2022 was a normal year.
We have significantly high mortality in working ages even after adjusting for population and looking at age stratified data.
Given that, what is most likely that the excess mortality caused by experimental vaccines and lack of access to healthcare etc only affects those of working ages and not those over say 75 or that there is some effect like a lack of ‘dry timber’ in the oldest ages because of the ravages of the last few years. I think the latter is the obvious starting assumption.
‘ I’ve never understood why that was in the context of a population of seemingly worsening health with higher metabolic illness. I’ve tentatively put it down to us being better at prolonging life…’
i have.
Propaganda from the experts and vested interests misleading us into believing the situation is worse than it is to serve their own interests, just like all the propaganda about masks, lockdowns, protecting granny, vaccines that aren’t, climate change, lies about cholesterol, eating meat, sugar, salt, saturated fats – quite a list.
I just wonder how many more lies do people have to hear before the penny drops and they stop listening.
Where is the Matrix Cat? Are we in a parallel universe? LOL!
Just put this on the ‘other side’ Dr John Campbell and the worrying rise in excess deaths in the 20-44 age cohort in comparison with 2019…using insurance actuary data…something that Ed Dowd in the USA has used to show massive increases in death and disability…..
There seems to be more than one source of data confirming a rise in all cause mortality!?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OD0na_NZaLM
I’ve got a great idea.
Why don’t we just differentiate vaxxed v. unvaxxed re the apparent increase in deat rate.
But the ‘vaccines’ was going to ‘save lives’ particularly of the ‘most vulnerable’.
Never mind the age-adjusted malarkey and percentages, it still doesn’t explain why so many more ‘saved lives’ died in the vaccinated group when we were categorically assured they would not.
If people are going to die anyway, what’s the point of the ju-ju medicine?
It is a grim picture from an economic point of view. The workforce is going to become severely diminished and incapcitated, at least terms of quality whilst at the same time less pressure on housing and employment will bring no relief in terms of inflation which is now essentially a perfectly calibrated extract and control mechanism. We are being funnelled into this reality at an alarming speed and yet we fail to understand the urgency and we are so dependent on these systems that we struggle to formulate a path of resistance.
The work force has been diminished and incapacitated gradually since the British Socialist Party took over in 1945 with the promise of Utopia.
Borriwing from the apocryphal reply attributed to Pope John… how many people work in Britain? About half of them.
We now have nearly 50% of the work-able getting a wage fir jobs that create no wealth, in jobs of such low productive output they need State welfare top up, peopke who just don’t work at all and get benefits.
It’s called Socialism – that Faustian pact where people stupidly sell their Souls – delayed payment – for the instant gratification of a life of State provision, safety and security.
If you have a heart problem there are three herbs that you might want to consider: hawthorn and Arjuna and danshen or red sage. All of these are being investigated by big pharma but it is worth investigating these substances.
And what’s going on in Scotland? Just in December 2022 they saw a 10% rise in excess deaths and 15.6% decrease in births. England and Wales have an excess death rate of 23.1% in week 1 this year.
https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/scottish-excess-deaths-reach-29
And add into all the comments below Ed Dowd’s reporting of a global average of 29 deaths on the field of sports people before 2021 and now it’s huge numbers every month. (See James Delingpole’s podcast with Edward Dowd, 22/1/23).
‘… this means the model assumes society is ageing very fast and this ageing is having a large impact on mortality rates…’
But if all the ‘dry tinder’ got used up in 2020 & 2021, the population would be on average be younger having lost a significant portion of its ageing people.
‘He told me: “The ASMR is ultimately just an opaque ‘model’ that relies on multiple unverifiable assumptions…’
Isn’t this what is now called: The Science™️
It certainly was the basis for the ‘pandemic response’ and underpins the climate change scam.