• Login
  • Register
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result

Putting the Pandemic’s Death Toll Into Perspective

by Noah Carl
20 October 2021 12:45 PM

There are two ‘official’ death tolls on the Government’s COVID-19 dashboard. 138,852 is the number of deaths within 28 days of a positive test. 162,620 is the number of deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate.

The main reason the latter is larger than the former is lack of testing during the first wave. In the spring of last year, about 15,000 people in whose death COVID-19 was a contributing factor died without being tested.

So is 162,620 the pandemic’s true death toll? No. And that’s because it includes a large number of deaths that probably would have happened anyway.

How do we know this? Because if we calculate the excess deaths – the number of deaths in excess of what we’d expect based on previous years – we get a much lower number.

The official death toll for England and Wales, based on death certificates, is 147,031. Yet if we add up all the deaths since the start of March 2020, and subtract the average over the last five years, we get a figure of 117,476 (about 20% lower).

What’s more, due to population ageing, the average over the last five years understates the expected number of deaths. Hence the true number of excess deaths is about 15% lower. Taking this into account, the pandemic’s total death toll in England and Wales is about 100,000.

However, when it comes to events like pandemics, estimating the total death toll isn’t the best way to gauge the impact on mortality. Consider an example.

Japan and Mexico have about the same population, but there are more deaths each year in Japan. How can this be, when everyone knows Japan is a very long-lived country? The reason is simple: there are more elderly people in Japan, so there are more people at high-risk of dying each year.

A better way of comparing the level of mortality in Japan and Mexico is to use the age-standardised mortality rate or life expectancy. Both of these measures take into account the risk of dying at different ages, as well as the age-structure of the population. (In 2019, Japan’s life expectancy was 84, whereas Mexico’s was only 76.)

Last year, the U.K.’s age-standardised mortality rate rose by 12.8%. Although this is the largest one-year change since 1940 (the first year of the Blitz), the level to which mortality rose was lower than in 2008. And even the change should be put into context: 2019 was a year of unusually low mortality.

I previously estimated that the life expectancy in England and Wales last year was 80.4 – down from 81.8 in 2019. (Other researchers have reported similar figures.) So despite tens of thousands of excess deaths, life expectancy was still around 80.

The reason life expectancy didn’t fall further is that the vast majority of excess deaths were to people in their 70s and 80s. If there had been 100,000 excess deaths of people in their 20s and 30s, the drop in life expectancy would have been far greater. (In 1918, Spanish life expectancy fell by a staggering 12 years.)

Using data on life expectancy and population from the World Bank, we can calculate the percentage of the world’s population that lives in countries with a life expectancy lower than 80.4. For 2019, it comes out as 91%. This means that, in 2019, nine out of ten people lived in countries with a higher level of mortality than Britain experienced last year.

In many countries, of course, life expectancy is pulled down by the high level of infant mortality. Yet there are still large cross-country differences in life expectancy at age 10. For example, it’s 46 in Lesotho, compared to 72 in the U.K.

All this means that the level of mortality Britain experienced last year was neither exceptionally high by historical standards, nor by international standards.

As the ONS noted in a report last July: “The highest mortality rate observed during a ‘normal’ winter in Bulgaria has historically been greater than the highest mortality rate observed during the ‘abnormal’ coronavirus pandemic in England.”

For the last few paragraphs, I’ve been talking about 2020. But wasn’t the second wave, which peaked in January of 2021, even more deadly than the first? In short, no.

Although the number of deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate was higher in the second wave, the age-adjusted excess mortality was lower. In fact, the overall level of mortality in the first eight months of 2021 was lower than in 2018.

The reason is that many of those who died with COVID-19 on the death certificate in the winter of 2021 would probably have died anyway. In addition: some deaths that would have occurred a few months later were ‘brought forward’ by the pandemic.

Overall then, the pandemic was a major event, resulting in the largest one-year drop in life expectancy since the Second World War. On the other hand, mortality only rose to the level of 2008, and was still lower than the normal level of mortality in most countries around the world.

Tags: Excess deathsLife ExpectancyONS

Donate

We depend on your donations to keep this site going. Please give what you can.

Donate Today

Comment on this Article

You’ll need to set up an account to comment if you don’t already have one. We ask for a minimum donation of £5 if you'd like to make a comment or post in our Forums.

Sign Up
Previous Post

Business Secretary Rules Out Another Lockdown

Next Post

How Outraged Should We Be By Yesterday’s Renewal of the Coronavirus Act Without a Parliamentary Vote?

Subscribe
Login
Notify of
Please log in to comment

To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.

Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.

26 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

DONATE

PODCAST

In Episode 35 of the Sceptic: Andrew Doyle on Labour’s Grooming Gang Shame, Andrew Orlowski on the India-UK Trade Deal and Canada’s Ignored Covid Vaccine Injuries

by Richard Eldred
9 May 2025
5

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editor’s Picks

Is Britain on the Brink of Civil War?

12 May 2025
by Joe Baron

Disney Re-Releases Snow White – and it Bombs Even Worse Than the First Time

12 May 2025
by Will Jones

News Round-Up

13 May 2025
by Richard Eldred

The Met Office is Unable to Name the Sites Providing ‘Estimated’ Temperature Data For its 103 Non-Existent Stations

12 May 2025
by Chris Morrison

NatWest Customer Offended by Pride Flags Told to Bank Online

12 May 2025
by Will Jones

Did Keir Starmer Just Say He Will ‘Take Back Control’?

26

BBC Presenter Gary Lineker Posts Anti-Israel Video Featuring Rat Emoji – a Known Antisemitic Slur

25

A Closer Look at ARIA: Britain’s Secretive £800 Million Sun-Dimming Quango

23

Is Britain on the Brink of Civil War?

32

Female Rugby Player Left With Major Injury After Horror Tackle From Transgender Opponent Asks: “How Was This Allowed to Happen?”

15

The NHS No Longer Recognises the Reality of Biological Sex

13 May 2025
by Caroline Ffiske

A Closer Look at ARIA: Britain’s Secretive £800 Million Sun-Dimming Quango

13 May 2025
by Tilak Doshi

Did Keir Starmer Just Say He Will ‘Take Back Control’?

13 May 2025
by James Alexander

Why Are Popes so Soft on Migration?

12 May 2025
by Dr Roger Watson

Is Britain on the Brink of Civil War?

12 May 2025
by Joe Baron

POSTS BY DATE

October 2021
M T W T F S S
 123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
25262728293031
« Sep   Nov »

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union
  • Home
  • About us
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy

Facebook

  • X

Instagram

RSS

Subscribe to our newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password? Sign Up

Create New Account!

Fill the forms below to register

All fields are required. Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In

© Skeptics Ltd.

wpDiscuz
You are going to send email to

Move Comment