In the US, Southern states have the lowest vaccination rates, while North Eastern states have the highest vaccination rates. This pattern appears to be largely down to partisanship: Republicans are less likely to be vaccinated than Democrats.
At the end of August, when the Delta variant was dominant, case rates were highest in Southern states like Alabama, Georgia and Florida. Meanwhile, they remained low in North Eastern states like New York, Massachusetts and New Jersey. This is shown in the map below, which gives the official case curve for each state up to 26 December:
The much higher case rates in the South seemed to provide evidence that the vaccines stop infection (in addition to protecting against serious illness and death). Hence, it was believed, vaccine passports will help to curb transmission.
Fast forward three months, and the situation is rather different. Infections are now surging in the North East. This has led to the somewhat peculiar situation whereby case rates are highest in some of the most vaccinated states. See the chart below, based on data from the CDC:
What explains this? One factor is waning effectiveness against infection. A few months after vaccination, you’re not that much less likely to become infected than someone who’s never been vaccinated.
Another factor is regional clustering. Case curves seem to be strongly correlated within regions of the US. This is probably due in part to seasonality. But it could also be due to the simple fact that transmission is more likely to occur between neighbouring states than between ones that are far apart.
A third factor is the spread of Omicron. This mysterious variant has immune escape properties, rendering both the vaccines and natural immunity less protective. And there’s even evidence of negative vaccine effectiveness – i.e., that double-vaccinated people are more likely to catch Omicron than the unvaccinated.
While offering vaccines to the elderly and vulnerable makes sense as a way to achieve focused protection, it’s clear that high vaccination rates in the North East have not curbed transmission. Vaccine passports don’t work in Europe, and they don’t work in America either.
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This disgusts me. It should shock and appall the British people.
Anybody who can be shocked hasn’t been paying much attention.
A great many people haven’t been paying attention.
Although it disgusts me I’m sorry to say I’ve now become too desensitised due to chronic exposure of this callous mistreatment and Clown World lunacy to be shocked. I feel that nothing can surprise me anymore. We’re now at a stage where many will have acclimatised to the horrendous state our once civilised societies have been reduced to.
You guys in the UK will be telling your kids all about the good old days when doctors used evidence-based medicine to treat patients because they gave a damn about the outcome or remember when you’d call for an ambulance and it’d come within a few minutes. Just two examples of things I can’t see ever returning if I’m honest.
Sack the firkin Doctor. He / she is no use to man nor beast. All pension rights withdrawn. The evil bastard.
Pots n pans on Thursday evening dudes?
Never did and never will. The treatment received by and elderly relative just before lockdown was so awful that I’ll never trust the NHS again. The relative died. She was going to anyway but she was certainly helped by the medics.
As an ex-GP, albeit in Australia, I can’t get my head around a health system where only 80%, let alone 65% of GP consults are performed in person. I worked in a system where all consultations were done in person, either in one’s consulting rooms, at the patient’s home, or in hospital. GP’s also performed anaesthetics, surgery, obstetrics, and looked after their patients in hospital.
I guess this is progress!
There is an advert on TV of a woman in last stages of labour and the ambulance guy on his mobile being told to turn the baby to facilitate delivery. It seems everything is now being done via a mobile phone, doctors and nurses don’t even have to get out of their beds!
How quaint, od fashioned and inefficient was that face to face thingy.
You must embrace change Dr. G.
Next time I need to fake my death I’ll know how to do it! John and Anne Darwin had to go to so much trouble, didn’t they? But now, committing life insurance fraud (or rather, getting away with it) is just a Zoom away!
Christ Almighty. Other people scare me (present company excepted).
What a cnut… Name and shame please…
It’s P45 time for these people, surely?
The problem we have is these people are far too comfortable in their jobs they think they are indispensable. This needs to change starting with our MPs.
I am so disgusted by this news. The widow should be given help making a formal complaint about the Doctor to the Medical Board and have that surgery closed down. Copy all letters to the MP too.
If people do not understand the nhs has collapsed, this story should make that point extremely clear.
Disgusting.
The story seems too perfect. Has it been confirmed by police and/or responsible journalist?
Just because in “The Telegraph” doesn’t necessarily make it true. I can think of a large number of “news” reports in recent years which turned out to be hoaxes.