Day: 2 December 2021

News Round-Up

A summary of all the most interesting stories that have appeared about politicians’ efforts to control the virus — and other acts of hubris and folly – not just in Britain, but around the world.

Applied Wisdom for Sceptics

by Edward Chancellor Alexander Ineichen, a Swiss financial analyst, has published a collection of epigrams and aphorism which together constitute what he calls Applied Wisdom: 700 Witticisms to Save Your Ass(ets). This book is intended for investors, but trying to understand the course of the pandemic presents similar challenges to mastering the financial markets – in both cases, there is a great deal of uncertainty, faulty modelling and forecasting, vested interests and a prevailing crowd psychology to contend with. Successful investors are nature’s contrarians and nonfinancial sceptics can learn much from Ineichen’s collected witticisms. The Problem of Forecasting The modern epidemiologist, equipped with complex mathematical models, has much in common with the contemporary economist. Both economists and epidemiologists attempt to forecast an immensely complex system, namely human society, equipped with models and data inputs that are not up to the task. Both face institutional pressures and incentives that produce a conformity of outlook. And when their forecasts turn out to be inaccurate, they suffer no ill consequences. As a result, they often fail to learn from their mistakes. Ineichen says that markets are governed by Gump’s Law, (derived from a line in the movie Forrest Gump), which states that life is a box of chocolates because you don’t know what you’re going to get. When you next encounter someone who ...

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