The “vast majority” of positives test results in schools are likely to be false, according to Jon Deeks, Professor of Biostatistics and head of the Test Evaluation Research Group at the University of Birmingham. The Telegraph has more.
Official data shows that the positive rate among secondary pupils is around 0.05 per cent, meaning there is a “high risk” that most rapid antigen tests carried out in secondary schools are false positives, according to Professor Jon Deeks.
Of the 3,867,007 lateral flow tests that were carried out on secondary pupils, just 1,805 were positive, according to the latest figures.
Health officials said that less than one in 1,000 results is a false positive overall. However, when the virus is on the wane, there is a higher likelihood of such results, as the number of true cases falls.
The positive case rate in schools equates to one in 2,142. At a rate of one in 1,000 false positives, from 3,867,007 tests you would expect 3,867 false positives.
Worth reading in full.
Stop Press: The Department for Education updated its official guidance today to say that all positive lateral flow tests taken in schools should be followed up by a confirmatory PCR test. Previously, this was only the case for tests taken by students at home.
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The ‘R’ rate is a crock of smelly stuff. Its whatever people want it to be, its unmeasurable in a diverse population.
Absolutely – part of the ‘garbage out’ of the computer game nerds who do ‘models’ that relate to nothing in the real world.
Stop using the enemy’s terms of reference. The R rate is utter, utter dog shit.
Anything that has to determined based on a guess not on a evidence-based formula is of limited use.
But when they most admit they were wrong and the R-rate shows a decrease in spread. So, open the darn county up!
The picture reminds me strongly of Bill and Ben on either side of Little Weed.
Golly, that dates me!
‘R’ stands for rot and rubbish. More smoke and mirrors to confuse the sheep. If the numbers do not reflect the amount of fear factor, revert to the ‘R’.
But of course any future easing, even the existing roadmap is dependent on passports. SAGE has been wrong again and again, their modeling based on assumptions long since proven false (like schools causing an increase in infections…every place on earth where schools opened showed this false). The models not data have created this snails pace end of lockdown.
Yesterday the Telegraph reported on the deceptive fear campaign put in place by SAGE and Boris. This must be investigated. We have been lied to and manipulated and this government must be held accountable. Intentional deception to create excess fear is criminal. Hold these people accountable!