After a brief period when post-Covid after-effects were identified as the main culprit for the large rise in excess non-Covid deaths in 2022, that theory now seems to have fallen out of favour. Is that because it dawned on people that if the virus is to blame, then by the same logic vaccine after-effects become implicated as well?
Neither vaccine nor virus has made it into the latest explanations for the rise in heart and stroke deaths. The British Heart Foundation has released analysis laying the blame squarely on the reduced access to healthcare during the pandemic and the consequent backlogs and delays in the system. This is from BBC News:
Extreme disruption to NHS services has been driving a sharp spike in heart disease deaths since the start of the pandemic, a charity has warned.
The British Heart Foundation (BHF) said ambulance delays, inaccessible care and waits for surgery are linked to 30,000 excess cardiac deaths in England. It has called for a new strategy to reduce “unacceptable” waiting times.
The government has said it is investing another £500m to ease pressure on ambulances and boost hospital capacity.
The BHF said its analysis suggests 395,000 people in England could be on a waiting list for a heart test or procedure by April 2023 based on current trends, up from 224,000 before the start of the Covid pandemic.
Doctors and groups representing patients have become increasingly concerned about the high number of deaths of any cause recorded this year. Data from the Office for National Statistics suggests the overall number was 17% higher in England than would have been expected in the week ending October 21st, based on the average for previous years.
Some of that rise can still be explained by Covid, which was mentioned on 523 death certificates in England over the week of October 14th. Another factor could be the ageing population. The headline excess deaths data does not take into account the fact that there are now more older people. This may be responsible for more than half of the total excess.
New analysis of the mortality data by the BHF suggests heart disease is among the most common causes, responsible for 230 deaths a week above expected rates since February 2020. The charity said “significant and widespread” disruption to heart care services was driving the increase. Its analysis of NHS data showed that 346,129 people were waiting for time-sensitive cardiac care at the end of August 2022, up 49% since February 2020. It said 7,467 patients had been waiting more than a year for a heart procedure – 267 times higher than before the pandemic. At the same time, the average ambulance response time for a suspected heart attack has risen to 48 minutes in England against a target of 18 minutes, according to the latest NHS figures.
The BHF said difficulty accessing face-to-face GP and hospital care may have also contributed to the rise. It cited modelling from NHS England which suggested the drop in people having their blood pressure checked because of Covid could lead to an extra 11,190 heart attacks and 17,702 strokes over three years.
Michael Simmons in the Spectator notes the odd lack of interest from Government in the cause of these tens of thousands of deaths.
Despite increased pressure from academics, clinicians and now charities the Government still displays little interest in what could be considered one of our greatest ever health crises. An investigation was promised by the then Health Secretary earlier this year but we’re onto our third Government since then. An official in the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities wasn’t even aware it was something they monitored (they do) when asked earlier this week.
The communications void on the issue is becoming a problem. Senior clinicians are starting to worry that the lack of attention from the Government and the health service is fuelling conspiracy theories. Dr Charles Levinson, CEO of Doctorcall, told me: “The silence around non-Covid excess deaths is fuelling conspiracy theories – the longer it goes on, the worse it’s getting. If the authorities don’t properly address and discuss the issue, this will only further undermine trust in public health.”
Those concerned about possible long-term effects of the vaccine are not the only ones intrigued by excess deaths. Some followers of the data have contacted me to suggest that perhaps there aren’t any excess deaths at all. There’s a worry among some that the crude averages used by the ONS do not account for an ageing population, and other demographic changes that occur over time. But the most senior figures in statistical academia refute this. Yes the ONS data is crude they say, but it’s not the only finding pointing to increased excess deaths.
The OHID use a complicated methodology for their average deaths baseline which does take population change into account. They find excess deaths in 23 out of 39 weeks this year. The institute and faculty of actuaries (who just compare deaths to their 2019 level) finds an excess of deaths too: 1,388 in the week to 21 October, slightly less than the ONS. So three separate sources, with three different methodologies, find the same thing. Excess deaths are not some ‘data glitch’.
This is a good response to the “ageing population” idea claimed by the BBC above to account for potentially over half the excess deaths. We might also point out that since the population hasn’t suddenly started ageing, if this was the explanation it should have been happening every year and we’d always see these ‘data glitch’ excess deaths. But a quick glance at the last decade shows the excess deaths in 2022 are far above those for any other year.
A Consultant in Emergency Medicine told me that in his view the types of cardiovascular problems that are spiking and killing people are not the kind that you would expect to arise from delayed treatment.
Lack of anti-anginal therapeutic optimisation usually means an increase in stable angina, not so much the acute coronary syndromes that result in ventricular fibrillation and sudden cardiac death in adults.
At this stage it is very difficult to prove, but logic would dictate, based on timing, that the deaths are directly attributable to cardiovascular effects of mRNA therapies, perhaps with lockdown neglect increasing vulnerability to them. Correlation is easily made between cardiac deaths and mRNA therapies, whereas VITT [blood-clotting] was more easily correlated to DNA therapy (AstraZeneca). Remember DNA therapy (AZ) is pretty much off the market and they didn’t recommend boosters. The timing of the cardiovascular events is with the mRNA therapies (Pfizer, Moderna).
When you see a population health change (in this case excess all-cause mortality and an uptick in cardiovascular disease) you have to look at how population behaviour has changed. There are only two horses in that race – lockdowns and their effect on health and healthcare access, and mRNA therapies. A reasonable hypothesis would be that the former has laid open vulnerability that the latter has capitalised on.
I’m sure that lack of access to healthcare during the pandemic and the resulting NHS backlogs and delays in emergency care are playing their part in the excess heart and stroke deaths. But these excess deaths are happening all over Europe and beyond, not just in the U.K. Why are those in charge so sure that the experimental mRNA and DNA vaccines that the large majority of the population have been injected with – drugs with known links to heart and blood-clotting problems and no long-term safety data – are not also playing a part? Why is the possibility not even raised, unless to dismiss it as a ‘conspiracy theory’? Leading cardiologists Dr. Aseem Malhotra and Dr. Peter McCullough as well as Florida Surgeon General Dr. Joe Ladapo have backed the theory, and MPs have raised the possibility in Parliament. At what point will journalists treat it with the seriousness it is due and join the calls for a proper investigation?