It appears that China has its own version of lockdown doom-modeller Neil Ferguson and his team. A paper in Nature from a team of Chinese and U.S. researchers has used a model to predict over 1.5 million deaths in China from Omicron should the country cease to impose its brutal controls. The following is from the South China Morning Post.
China could see more than 1.5 million deaths from a wave of Omicron infections without COVID-19 controls and the use of antiviral therapies, a new study has forecast.
A model by Chinese and U.S. researchers suggested that, given China’s vaccine efficacy and coverage, an unchecked outbreak that began with 20 cases of Omicron in March could “generate a tsunami of COVID-19 cases” between May and July.
Such an outbreak is projected to cause 112 million symptomatic cases, or 80 cases per 1,000 people, with 2.7 million of them requiring treatment in intensive care…
The researchers used a mathematical model to simulate a hypothetical Omicron wave in China based on data from the Shanghai outbreak.
“Should the Omicron outbreak continue unabated, despite a primary vaccination coverage of more than 90% and homologous booster vaccination [boosting with the same vaccine] coverage of more than 40% as of March 2022, we project that the Chinese healthcare system will be overwhelmed with a considerable shortage of ICUs,” they wrote.
They estimated that the peak demand of 1 million intensive care beds would be almost 16 times the existing total of 64,000 beds, with a shortage lasting 44 days.
The estimates are based on the experiences in Hong Kong and Shanghai – which makes it hard to see why they would suppose peak ICU demand will exceed capacity by 16 times as that does not appear to have been Hong Kong’s experience, unless China is desperately under-resourced in ICU capacity.
It is true that Hong Kong had a nasty March. However, the scale shouldn’t be exaggerated. Hong Kong’s Omicron wave was almost identical to the U.K.’s 2020-21 winter Alpha wave – the U.K. suffered 1,240 deaths per million against Hong Kong’s 1,210. It is curious that for Hong Kong the deadly wave occurred with the Omicron variant, which has been mostly mild elsewhere, but that oddity doesn’t change the overall numbers. The U.K.’s ICUs were not overwhelmed during the winter of 2020-21, though it was extremely busy.
One and a half million deaths sounds a lot, but actually if China were to experience the same death rate as Hong Kong (1,200 per million) the figure would be slightly higher at 1.7 million. Again, that seems a big number, but China is a big country of 1.4 billion people, and the predicted death rate is less than half the 2,600 deaths per million the U.K. has experienced so far. China’s overall annual death rate is 7,180 per million, or 10 million deaths in total, so 1.7 million Covid deaths would only be 17% of ordinary annual mortality – many of whom would be frail people who would be expected to be part of ordinary mortality anyway.
In other words, for once the modelling, at least in terms of deaths, may be realistic, but that doesn’t mean it’s any reason to panic, cripple the economy or trample on citizens’ rights.
Meanwhile, North Korea has reported its first official outbreak and has now declared a “maximum emergency” and ordered all cities and counties in the nation of 25 million to lock down.
The madness continues.
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Need to realise that the majority of UK deaths were pre-vaccination.
Omicron was held off by acquired immunity (vaccination and infection)
Now China has vaccinated a large proportion of the population, so that probably explains the difference.
I’d argue that the majority of the UK deaths were caused by intentionally chucking those at risk together in care homes. That combined with a little cheeky number fudging will give any number of CoViD dEaThS they want. But you do you.
The care home debacle is certainly a factor, but unlikely to represent the majority.
You would need to have supporting data to draw this conclusion.
Average age of deaths certainly points to the majority being in care homes, or at least old.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/averageageofthosewhohaddiedwithcovid19
Enjoy the supporting data.
Average age of death with Covid 82, average age of death in the UK 82.
Place where people have a life expectancy of 2 years, “Care” Homes.
Add the two together and we end up with a whole load of fuss about the elderly doing what the elderly do, where they do it.
My god but you’re HILARIOUS!
I suspect the deliberate starvation and dehydration and general neglect of the old folk in the ‘care’ homes was what wiped them out.
Plus an inordinate amount of Midazolam.
The UK is still in the pre vaccination stage. Not one person in the UK has been vaccinated against covid
nonsense and you know it.
Is that the best you can do?
You can’t be ‘vaccinated against’ Covid. It’s a treatment that may well offer short term protection against severe symptoms in some cases. On that basis aspirin is an oral vaccine against headaches.
I think you will find that Cecil B is correct.
The jabs are NOT VACCINES.
The daily number of ‘covid deaths’ in the UK is now a multiple of what is was one year ago.
That is true.
Vaccination programme started in the UK in Dec 2020. Most deaths happened after vaccination started.
It took until early April 21, until 60% had received 1 dose. At that time Accumulated deaths was about 127K. Current total is about 177K
Making a judgement on day 1 of vaccination is meaningless. Just manipulation of facts and easily spotted.
But the death rate is still more or less the same even though everybody who wanted stabbed has had as many doses as they want
If you want to be taken seriously please don’t confuse ‘of’ and ‘with’. Official figures show numbers where ‘Covid’ was the sole COD, ‘Of’, are way less.
Is the 177k number symbolic of your paymasters?
Do you actually know anything about gene therapies, aka “vaccines”.?
Basically, for the ignorant, ie it would seem you, they alter the innate responses to enable the jabs to deliver its poison, which has the inevitable consequence of increased immunological diseases.
I suggest you do some basic research about immunology – or ask those who you maybe work for.
drivel..
Why do you keep changing your name?
Split personality, or trying to hide your past history of being persistently wrong?
Do you still believe the jabs to be safe and effective? Tree.
Of course vaccines are safe and effective.
So was Thalidomide if you wanted a baby that looked like a hattifattener.
Haha. You actually said it.
Some are. But these jabs aren’t vaccines. The Yellow Card, VAERS, EUdravigilence etc demonstrate that they’re not safe. And the reinfection rates and “protection” timescales (8 weeks and reducing with each booster) prove they’re not effective.
Well, you have a very suitable moniker!
If I become popular on here, I will know I have lost my mind.
We’d far rather you lost us.
You did quite some time ago, hence the reason you keep coming back for more abuse, show your psychiatrist on the doll where he touched you.
It’s funny how no-one was dying of ‘Covid’ until the Government alerted everyone to this ‘novel virus’.
LMAO
Uk deaths nearly all avoidable with the use of repurposed drugs. The question is why were they banned from day one? Why weren’t they offered early on and available otc? Ivermectin costs 6p a pill. Two reasons. First if there was a pre existing drug that treated covid, the health authorities could not issue an “emergency use authorisation” for experimental biologicals and second if a cheap drug was available big pharma could not make a fortune on their jabs. Remdesivir and ventilators were known right from the start to expedite death. Why have they continued to be used. The word criminal negligence comes to mind.
Given they admitted 12% efficacy of the jabs, which means that in fact it is far lower in reality – and the dangerous nature of the jabs, jabbing didn’t help one bit.
Their whole model of human organisation is utterly soul-destroying. They care nothing for the divinity of the anthropos. If I lived there I would buy the farm in an instant. Perhaps not before taking one or two of them with me.
There were very few post mortems, in the UK therefore we don’t know what they died of, most had multiple comorbitities and were elderly
excess deaths ?
Mortality in April/May 2020 was dependent on jurisdiction, rather than any infections. as analyzed by Rancourt, indicating that the cause of excess deaths in the jurisdictions, where it occurred, was due to administrative emergeny response and inappropriate ‘treatments’.
https://denisrancourt.ca/entries.php?id=9&name=2020_06_02_all_cause_mortality_during_covid_19_no_plague_and_a_likely_signature_of_mass_homicide_by_government_response
If a new disease leads to excess deaths, then it should lead to excess deaths broadly everywhere, subject to the effectiveness of health services, and not just in particular jurisdictions.
The death rate in the 80+ age group in Germany, for example, was lower than in 2016, 2017 or 2018, but a little bit higher than 2019. The larger number of deaths in that age group was purely a function of the aging population – ie more people in that age group.
The early pandemic stopped at the border of Germany.
The Germans did not act because they were too cautious, knowing that causing more harm than good was a distinct risk.
The likes of the Belgians were throwing toxic antivirals around and using ventilators as fast as they could, they killed huge numbers of people, the Germans hardly noticed a thing.
Yes, even within countries there were large discrepancies, and these discrepancies tended to be at the borders of departements (France) or regions (Italy), indicating that they were due to differences in administrative response.
Never was the old Taoist adage about the wisdom of non-action so apposite.
Not true that the early pandemic stooped at the border.
Germany had about half the death rate cf. the UK, in the first few months. They did a better job of lockdowns (early intervention than the UK)
Delusional.
Not true.
If you compare the German state of Baden-Württemberg with the French region of Alsace-Lorraine, or the neighbouring parts of Belgium and Germany, then you see that the border separated high from low death rates, although in both areas a great deal of cross-border commuting goes on.
This is not how infectious diseases behave.
The German lockdown was mild compared to the UK. The weather was good and hikers and cyclists thronged the paths and parks, leading to a holiday atmosphere, because no or little attempt was made to get people to stay home, although shops, offices, restaurants, gyms and so on were of course closed, and mixing and mingling were frowned upon.
People were getting out into the sunshine and fresh air, and getting exercise.
In addition the German health system is comparatively well resourced, and so had a buffer against the disruption of working practices, which impacted so badly in many other places, following the WHO pandemic declaration.
The UK lockdown was mild compared to the German one, especially time-wise. The country entered a so-called strict lockdown in November 2020. So-called medical masks where mandated in early 2021. Conveniently, as soon as relaxing the measurements again started to being discussed in spring 2021, a COVID wave occurred and the strict lockdown was extended[*]. As more and more people were vaccinated, it became politically impossible to keep everything shut. Hence, stuff was conditionally reopened based on the so-called 3G-Regel (3G rules), the Gs standing for geimpft (vaccinated), genesen (recovered) or getested (recent negative test, usually valid for a day or two). People who fell into either of these categories were allowed to do inessential stuff in public, eg, go to the hairdresser. Mask mandates remained in place. When the pandemic of the unvaccinated was being hyped, 3G was replaced with 2G, ie, a negative test wasn’t accepted anymore. Essentially, the only thing unvaccinated people were still allowed to do is go to supermarkets and go to work, provided they tested themselves daily under supervision (they also had to pay for most of the tests). When the next so-called COVID wave hit, 2G became 2G+: Now, the criterion for being allowed to have a life was vaccinated or recovered plus a recent negative test. As final shot accross the bow, the time limit for counting as recovered was cut from 180 days to 90 days, partial mandatory vaccination was implemented and general, manadtory vaccination discussed. Despite a lot of rabid proponents of that in parliament, this was ultimatively dropped. Measures started to be lifted piecemeal in 2022. The vaccine mandate was finally lifted for most of the country a few weeks ago, although state and local authorities could chose to keep it in shops and on public transports which states with progresssive-left administrations obviously did.
[*] One would assume that a COVID wave occuring during a so-called strict lockdown supposed to prevent one would constitute proof that this obviously didn’t work. But not so in the Coronaverse.
Thank you for the link to the insightful analysis by Denis Rancourt.
Pretty compelling that WHO declaring a pandemic set in motion a massive spike in deaths worldwide, primarily due to disruption of working practices in hospitals and care homes.
del
Not at pandemic level
The government policy of not allowing post mortems is a core piece of evidence proving that their covid19 claims were false.
An honest government would have wanted as many autopsies conducted as possible in order to learn as much about the disease as possible.
A corrupt government that were committing a crime would want to hide the cause of death.
Your first statement on proof is interesting, in that it shows a lack of understanding of the concept of proof.
Was the CCP genuinely terrified, of a theoretical nanoparticle – and wanting to save the world – or … ? It has to know, at this point, most of the rest of the world is simply moving on.
Some suggest that 500milion Chinese will starve to death in the first year of the economic crash that is coming their way soon
Good
That’s a shameful thing to say.
Not really, I can’t stand them. They’re a bunch of sneaky liars
“China is keeping mass quantities of grain in storage, to the point where it’s affecting global food prices, according to a columnist for Bloomberg.
Adam Minter, author of “Junkyard Planet: Travels in the Billion-Dollar Trash Trade,” cites USDA statistics pointing to what he calls China’s “hoarding” of key commodities. By mid-2022, China will hold 69% of the world’s corn reserves, 60% of its rice and 51% of its wheat, according to USDA predictions.”
https://www.foodprocessing.com/industrynews/2022/china-accused-of-hoarding-grain/
Who suggests such a thing?
And the last thing anyone in the world needs right now is millions of young, angry, hungry Chinese men with nothing left to lose…
“Modellers predict…”
“Modellers predict”. So do seaside fortune tellers, but with greater accuracy.
Disappointingly low, we could do with a good clearout of commies
Apparently North Korea is suddenly starting to overreact. I don’t know but my sincere impression is that this diease leads to very nasty consequences down the road. Not that you can stop it. I think in five years time the idea of nation states will seem absurd given the horrors that we will have to deal with.
Sweden had no excess mortality over the whole 2020-2021 period, did not lock down, did not recommend masks, and kept schools open the whole time.
I agree those things make it worse. There is no stopping the spread. But I can still understand the paranoia and the competitive advantage that they might discern for the future. Just look at the people around you. They are becoming more and more far gone. This is not an insignificant neurological attack.
The only problem is an injected problem.
Sweden did have spikes of excess deaths during this period, at broadly the same times as other European countries.
There are always large spikes of excess deaths within any period in every country.
There is typically one in the nothern hemisphere Winter for respiratory disease, and often one in Summer reflecting heat waves.
In addition, Sweden had a particularly low death rate in 2019, leading to the ‘dry tinder’ effect for 2020.
I imagine that Ferguson gets quite a hard on when he thinks about all those locked down people slowly dying.
I’d imagine that rather ironically, he isn’t capable of projecting the impact FROM his perverted models.
“When an epidemic breaks out, a command is issued”.
Xi Xingping, 25 Jan 2020
Latest command duly obeyed by University of Shanghai number crunchers and American sidekicks.
This disease asks of us that we will bring things back to their rightful place. It asks that we understand the difference between truth and troth. There is no backing away from the real issue for those of us who love western cvilisation, this is a stark confrontation The utter bare bones and barren landscape and can we build from here. This is our sacred mission and it is under attack. Do we have an answer? I am not a Trump fan but he asked a couple of years ago, does the West have the will to survive or not?
Apparently modellers can model things that are as horrendously complex as the climate and pandemics but not something like the stock market or a horse race.
That modellers aren’t multy billionaires sat on a beach being serviced by beautiful women proves they can’t predict anything worth a damn.
Why don’t you give it a go and show them how it is done.
They are missing out on your insight and skills.
Modelling is generally a waste of time and almost always wrong, especially for complex systems which we didn’t make, so why should we bother, troll?
The goal of modelling is to provide absurd, innumerate fantasies and apocalyptic scenarios that cannot possibly happen, exactly what it has done.
It’s a bit like graphologists. They claim that they can discern your sexual proclivities and possible criminal tendencies from a sample of your handwriting, but they don’t claim to be able to tell your biological sex. Guess why that is.
That’ll be mostly the 1.5 million elderly Chinese making up the 0.1% of the populace susceptible to being mown down by a bad cold.
Specialist subject the bleedin’ obvious.
The unvaccinated elderly Chinese are the issue.
https://dailysceptic.org/2022/05/01/covid-vaccines-impair-immune-response-to-infection-u-s-government-study-shows/
And this relates to China, How?
Your previous remark implied that injections would help.
Another consideration is that the most fragile segment of the population, which is most susceptible to any respiratory disease, is not only precisely the same segment with an immune system so relatively weak that it profits little from any vaccine, but is also the same group which in many cases is already too weak for such.
It wouldn’t surprise me if many of the ‘unvaccinated elderly Chinese’ have in fact been finished off by the Shanghai measures involving social isolation, stress and hunger.
Sheldon Cohen, one of the premier researchers of the last 30 years on respiratory diseases, has identified stress and social isolation as the two most important factors, which worsen outcomes from respiratory illness.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/7677414_The_Pittsburgh_Common_Cold_Studies_Psychosocial_predictors_of_susceptibility_to_respiratory_infectious_illness
…link to Sheldon Cohen’s Pittsburgh Common Cold Study (duly ignored by the WHO and public health acolytes worldwide).
Thanks.
I was pushed for time earlier. Otherwise I would have dug up the link.
Why on earth would omicron be so virulent in China? I’m over 50, unvaccinated and previously uninfected, and my only symptom from omicron was a slight rash on my thumb for a morning. I don’t know anyone at all in my age group, or younger, or even older. who’s contracted it & been seriously ill, regardless of prior infection or vaccination status. Why is it so severe in China, a country with low obesity levels?
if there was a deadly virus going around would the Chinese state care about the population or would they more likely welcome a chance to get rid of a percentage of the population of at least 1.4 billion people. After-all, china is severely overpopulated with an ageing population and an increased pressure on amenities etc. As seen, the state could not care a less about their citizens so any reporting of china’s attempt to safeguard people through lockdowns etc really does not add up. What it does do however is make other countries lockstep in imposing restrictions and in turn turning their countries into china lite.
More lies – to add to the mountain.
The chances of ever finding out what there upto are slim. Perhaps they just need to believe they can defeat something. I suggest we let them get on with it.
They’re going to have the infections at some point.
Surely the right thing to do is have a managed outbreak that fills their ICUs to capacity.
Their chosen method simply keeps the pain of lockdowns without actually helping reduce illness and death in the longer term.
Impossible as Covid ‘the disease’ doesn’t exist.
More like 1.5 million non-conformist Chinese will be beaten to death by the CCP for failing to comply with their own enslavement.
How about 1.5 million deaths FROM the lockdown – through starvation, suicide, loneliness, despair and missed medical care for other ailments???
By now, we all know how these numbers are generated: Some people have access to a computer program claimed to simulate the progress of a communicable disease through a population based on (large) number of parameters representing the properties the disease is assumed to have. In principle, this is already laughable, as it’s based on unverifiable assumptions from start to finish, but – hey – it’s complicated and done with a computer, there must be something to it.
These people then start by collecting some inaccurate real-world numbers from a scenario superficially related to the one they want to model and the ICU capacity of the target. Presumably, these are already adjusted by various factors pulled out of thin air to account for their inaccuracy. Eg, there’s almost certainly an assumed underreporting factor involved. Then, they fill in the other parameters with assumed values they claim to believe to be realistic and run the program. They now keep tweaking all their assumed parameters and keep rerunning the program until the desired outcome – health system collapse – is achieved. Then, they call this realistic worst case scenario to deflect responsibilty from them in case they end up being ignored and the real world (once more) proves their modelling wrong and publish it.
This is not science and not even an honest attempt at predicting anything, just an exercise in policy-based evidence making: The people behind this want Corona measures, the more the merrier. Hence, they invent a scenario where a health system collapses in order to justify them.
Why all the shock and rage about a totalitarian state acting totalitarian? It’s what they do.
We should still be getting hot under the collar about OUR state acting totalitarian – which hasn’t entirely ceased yet.