Omicron bites hard in the UKHSA Vaccine Surveillance report this week, as unadjusted vaccine effectiveness against infection (calculated from the raw data) plummets across all age groups in the month ending January 2nd 2022. The revival in some age groups from the third doses has now been almost completely cancelled out, as all age groups above 18 years go negative again. Those in their 40s hit a new low of minus-151% (negative vaccine effectiveness means the vaccinated are more likely to be infected than the unvaccinated; a vaccine effectiveness of minus-100% means the vaccinated are twice as likely to be infected as the unvaccinated). There is a sharp drop for under-18s for the first time as well, with unadjusted vaccine effectiveness more than halving in a fortnight, collapsing from 79% to 38% (there was no report last week due to the Christmas holiday).
To underline the pointlessness of vaccine passports and mandates for preventing spread, I have plotted in the chart below the proportions of infections in the unvaccinated and vaccinated for the month ending January 2nd (in this chart ‘vaccinated’ includes all who have received at least one dose; in the other charts in this post ‘vaccinated’ means at least 14 days after a second dose). It shows that 72% or nearly three quarters of infections in that four-week period were in the vaccinated (65% in the double or triple vaccinated) and only 22% in the unvaccinated. That is certainly not an epidemic of the unvaccinated; almost the opposite, in fact.
Omicron has also had an impact on unadjusted vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation, with sharp declines occurring particularly in the younger age groups with lower booster coverage. The decline in 18-29 year-olds is particularly steep, dropping to just 50%, meaning double vaccination is only halving the risk of hospitalisation (though keep in mind this is unadjusted vaccine effectiveness based on raw data, not taking into account any potential confounders in either direction).
Unadjusted vaccine effectiveness against death remains high, above 80% for all ages, though there is sign of a slight decline.
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Thoughtful interviewee, Telegraph articles well thought out.
Meanwhile out here on the digital receiving end, all about trust and lack of…
…I don’t trust human rights lawyer Sir Two-Tier anywhere in the vicinity of the statute book. I don’t trust the Princess of Theeves with my taxes, just as I didn’t trust Mr Rishi Buoy or Lord Chunt – if I’d squandered our family’s finances like the £2.8 trillion national debt they and their ilk have sluiced away down the decades, the family would have been out on the streets years ago.
I don’t trust Ms Phillistine to educate little socialists. I don’t trust Ms Nobrayner to build houses, just as I didn’t trust her story about double dipping on voter registration and cashing in on a former council house. I wouldn’t trust Miliband Minor to change a light bulb. I don’t trust Ms Pixie to know her valid passport from her rubber dinghy.
I didn’t trust de A. B. Pfeffel to manage a Brexit or a Pandemic That Never Was. I didn’t trust Lord Sir Sir Unvallanced and future Sir UnWhittingly at the podium. I don’t trust latterday Science Minister, Lord Sir Sir, talking out of his bottom on climate claptrap. I didn’t trust Handcock’s maskeradery or Cunnin’-Dominaigh’s eyesight.
I don’t trust Tedros the Dodgy. I didn’t used to trust General von Trumpff but now I kinda do. Unlike Sleepy Joe, does still have set of functioning marbles. Sooner or later, he’s going to have to own up to being duped by Warp Speed. Doesn’t do humility, but maybe RFK Jr will do it for him. Mr Musket said to be on the spectrum, whatever that means – Musket’s five minute take down of pompous Commentariat oaf is priceless.
Rant for the day over.
And in the absence of anyone better to trust, I provisionally trust Messrs Farago and Thrice, if only because they profess not to play fast and loose with the energy policy that’s fundamental to the entirety of the modern world. Suck up to sunbeams and breezes at our peril.
Just received a government ‘response’ to the petition to repeal net zero.
Pretty sure Mad-Ed wrote the reply.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/701600.
“There is no ‘two-sided’ debate on anthropogenic climate change. The Government’s policy to support ambitious action on climate change reflects the overwhelming scientific consensus…”
…Overwhelming scientific bollox.
Another good episode. A note of optimism there.
Orlowski is very plausible but didn’t half talk a lot of nonsense.
He claimed, for example, that the average family paid more in additional costs of IT services (he quoted £1,000 per year) due to monopoly suppliers than they do in environmental levies. The truth is that environmental levies cost the average family a lot more than that, and it is anyway impossible to measure the additional cost caused by a monopoly.
He also exhibited a breathtaking complacency about Chinese products (basically “they’re junk that doesn’t last”) when actually they are often very well made these days and pose a very serious threat to our own industries for that reason. Especially considering our own industries often choose to manufacture their products in China anyway.
Our problems are a lot more deep seated than he seems to recognise.
Good points.