Over the last few months, many countries around the world have introduced vaccine passports and/or vaccine mandates. While some of these schemes are more accurately described as ‘immunity passports’ – since they recognise natural immunity from previous infection – many of them of do not.
In the U.S., there are already examples of healthcare workers with natural immunity being fired for refusing to comply with vaccine mandates. And this is despite the fact that natural immunity provides better immunity against infection than the vaccines.
Similarly, the UK’s vaccine mandate for care home workers does not include an exemption for those with natural immunity. Indeed, bioethicists at the University of Oxford have argued that it should include an exemption, on the grounds that natural immunity is at least as good as what the vaccines provide.
One potential counter-argument is that even natural immunity wanes, so those who’ve already been infected still stand to benefit from vaccination. However, this ignores the risks side of the equation. And while such risks might be low on average, they appear to be greater for young people – who face almost no risk from Covid to begin with.
What kind of risks are we talking about? First, there’s the ‘tail risk’ that the vaccines have serious long-term effects, which haven’t shown up in the data yet. Although this seems unlikely, it shouldn’t be dismissed entirely. Second, there are the rare but quantifiable side effects that we do know about.
The need to take account of both benefits and risks for those who’ve already been infected was summed up well by the vaccine scientist Christine Benn. (I found this quote in a BMJ article by Jennifer Block, which is definitely worth a read.)
If natural immunity is strongly protective, as the evidence to date suggests it is, then vaccinating people who have had covid-19 would seem to offer nothing or very little to benefit, logically leaving only harms—both the harms we already know about as well as those still unknown.
Of particular importance is the fact that ‘adverse events’ (i.e., side effects) appear to be more common in those who’ve already been infected. This has been found in at least half a dozen studies, based on data from several different countries. See here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here.
(I also found two studies reporting that adverse events were not more common in those who’ve already been infected. However, one of these studies had only two people with prior infection in the sample, so it doesn’t really tell us anything.)
Several of the studies that did report a difference simply compared the frequency of adverse events between those with and without prior infection. This leaves open the possibility that any difference is due to those with prior infection being younger.
However, some studies actually controlled for age and sex, and still found elevated rates of adverse events among those with prior infection.
Now, the vast majority of adverse events reported in these studies were mild or moderate – things like fatigue and flu-like illness. Yet one study found that severe side effects were more common among those with prior infection. Of course, this is just one study, so it shouldn’t be given too much credence.
A higher risk of fatigue or flu-like illness might not actually change the cost-benefit calculus for someone with prior infection who’s deciding whether to get vaccinated.
However, the evidence suggests that those who’ve already been infected not only face lower benefits from vaccination; they also face higher – or at least slightly higher – costs. (The cost-benefit ratio may be particularly unfavourable for young people who’ve already been infected.)
Vaccine passports and vaccine mandates are objectionable for a whole number of reasons. And when it comes to those who’ve already been infected – which will soon be most of us – there’s no case for them at all.
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.
OK, Watson and Abrahamovitch, what have you personally done since February 2020 to try to fight the fear-mongering and hysteria that allows the regime to get away with these impositions?
With a few very honourable exceptions, industry and business have done nothing to resist, but plenty of whining about getting taxpayer subsidies for themselves. If you’re among the aforementioned noble exceptions, fine, but otherwise, go put some money and influence behind campaigns resisting the fearmongering, and have some words in politicians’ ears about how you’ll support their rivals if they don’t back off.
Luke Johnson, Hugh Osmond and to an extent Tim Martin. Can’t think of anyone else, though I expect there are a few more, but not many.
Grind will be Ground Down. Sorry.
Agreed…I said this last year….last year for goodness sake…… I’m doing my bit, if you want me in your pub, do yours. Do what the Co-Op did, if they make masks mandatory in pubs don’t enforce it…..if they want QR codes, don’t enforce it, same with vax pass…put your heads on the block like the rest of us and stand up and fight. If you don’t you’re going out of business anyway…I will never use a ‘pass’ of any kind for a pint, it’s cheaper to go to the supermarket, and I can drink in my jammies!
Stories about pubs closing are sad indication of the symptoms but not the cause. This site needs to step up on the causes and stop pretending it’s some bumbling idiots being overly cautious. What is happening is deliberate and evil. They push until they hit protest, then push some more stupid rules, then stop for a while and now are pushing again. Wake up. This is disproportionate bullshit. Enough. Take action yourselves, no white-knight is coming to help, do not comply with any of it, no masks, no showing your jab status if you’ve been jabbed, no taking tests to get into places. Enough. Do not consent to this system of coercive control. Look where we’ve come from to where we are now. And for what? Is it proportionate? No, it’s not. It’s got to stop, now! Toby you’ve done a great job in setting this site up but events risk overwhelming the original purpose.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fL00v2YjWKI
As Boris says the jabs don’t stop you catching it and don’t stop you spreading it.
If a venue requires testing then EVERYONE needs to be tested the vaxpass is pointless.
Wonder why no journalist has not asked him this obvious question?
I would love to believe this but unfortunately it is not. Every country is moving in lockstep and the evil is in the smartphone. Show me a society that bans QR codes and I will believe this is a cock-up, until then it is evil.
I work as a family photographer for Americans on vacation. As you can imagine with restrictions on travel, lollipop rules and things to do when in London and enjoy time with loved ones (especially when they can go to Florida) has cut my earnings off dramatically.
Even the coffee shops, bars and restaurants families would regularly visit aren’t the same anymore. The staff have changed, nobody knows each other by name. Funny, as when Brexit began my trade actually went up, it was the coof that killed 90% of the foot-flow in Westminster and 80% around Tower Bridge.
Good time to buy commercial real estate I guess if you know what I mean. Especially when interest rates are so low. It times nicely with excessive money printing and higher ups access to free/cheap money.
PS. The Stafford Hotel, Claridges, The Connaught and The Ritz will be fine as they don’t need to make money to stay open. They are trophy assets for Middle Eastern Investment vehicles on behalf of the Royal families.
Middle Eastern and Oriental. The Yuan buys you a lot these days, and with containers coming into the UK full and going back empty, on what else are they going to spend all the money we send them? Not goods and services, that’s for sure.
It isn’t only pubs.
Don’t forget us folks, training companies who deliver face to face training.
Zoom sessions are no substitute for personal interaction. As the lead in training the defence industry in the management of large, complex project lifecycles we haven’t worked since February 2020. This evil policy has killed our business that took 20 years to build up.
When we’re gone, we’re gone, and we’ll take our wisdom and experience with us.
And by the way, WFH is a con. Used in an isolated and exceptional manner it can work, but must not become the norm, a skiver’s charter.
One of the many things the technocrats want to do is to prevent you from meeting other people in order to stop you plotting against them and their fascist schemes, technocracy is in effect digital slavery.
The police and crimes bill will prevent you from doing this in protests (effectively making them illegal – except for global warming protests of course). The online harms bill will prevent ‘virtual’ meetings in sites such as this, and killing the hospitality industry will prevent you from meeting like minded people down the pub. It is all part of the plan.
Later on they will introduce stringent travel restrictions (again in the name of preventing man made global warming) which will prevent you travelling more than a few miles from your designated place of residence and further restrict the possibility of human contact and spread of information contrary to the agenda.
Sir Kneel Starmer is a fully paid up member of the technocrats club and therefore probably public enemy #1, Bojo isn’t quite sure what he is except a tool for others to easily manipulate (or perhaps just a tool).
The net tightens but still the fish swim round in circles.
Are there any pub calendars for 2022 where they show everyone inside standing up wearing face masks, and everyone seated not wearing a face mask, in the interest of preventing the spread of a highly contagious virus during a pandemic?
https://www.rosecalendars.co.uk/olde-worlde-inns-calendar
Didn’t most office work outside London get farmed out to out of town office parks? Do shop workers not eat lunch or can they not afford to eat out?
All going as planned, then?