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SAGE Modelling Predicts That Covid Cases Will Slump Even Without ‘Plan B’

by Luke Perry
26 October 2021 5:51 PM

Recent SAGE modelling has predicted that the rate of Covid infections will soon fall, even without the imposition of new restrictions, such as ‘Plan B’ measures which include vaccine passports and mandatory mask wearing. The booster vaccine roll out and an increase in natural immunity within children have been given as reasons for this decline in the number of Covid cases, with the modelling calculated at a time when the Covid case rate is already beginning to flatline. The MailOnline has the story.

While the figures are only based on a few days’ data, they are in line with some of the more optimistic projections from No10′ [sic] scientific advisory panel SAGE.

Modelling by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine for SAGE had cases dropping from next month without any additional restrictions, to as low as 5,000 per day through winter.

Scientists said that a combination of booster vaccines, growing natural immunity in children and a reduction in classroom mixing during the October half-term break would drag cases down. 

SAGE has previously been criticised for overegging the scale of the country’s outbreak, but Dr. Simon Clarke, from the University of Reading, said it looked like this time they “had a high chance of being right.”

But the Microbiologist told MailOnline: “Just as people criticised the shortcomings of pessimistic models we have to apply the same scepticism to such optimistic ones. But the team at LSHTM are very good at what they do.”

Professor Paul Hunter, an Epidemiologist at the University of East Anglia, said he “trusted” the LSHTM model, adding: “Over the next few weeks, we should start seeing a substantial fall in cases followed by hospitalisations.”

But not all scientists advising the Government agree, with many on SAGE publicly lobbying for masks, working from home and vaccine passports to safeguard against rising cases in winter. 

Downing St. was forced to defend its decision not to revert to ‘Plan B’ today after leaked Government documents showed the contingency plans could cost the economy £18billion this winter. The estimate for the damage from reverting to working from home and face masks was produced by the Treasury and Cabinet Office.

A separate paper from the Culture Department has raised concerns vaccine passports could be ‘counter-productive’ and drive people to poorly ventilated pubs.

Worth reading in full.

Tags: CasesPeakPlan BWinter

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36 Comments
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TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago

Is that model’s guesses split by star-sign?

I think Sagittarians are most at risk, SAGE is taking the Pisces though if anyone still trusts these dice-rolling simulators.

24
0
Fingerache Philip
Fingerache Philip
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

Hey, I’m a Sagittarian!!

6
0
Mr Dee
Mr Dee
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

Talking about this sort of thing, astrology and prediction and all that, there’s this ‘news’ story about the Illuminati card game from the 90s, which some say predicted the events now.

https://www.theweek.co.uk/odd-news/106131/card-game-from-the-1990s-predicted-coronavirus

Strangely enough, a week before Princess Diana’s death, I was playing this game with my mate. There was a Diana card, which he had in play, and I killed her off with a Hit and Run – an assassination card which pictured a speeding car…

Also, there’s the card pictured below, which looks familiar, post 9/11…

Maybe Sage should simply draw cards from an Illuminati deck to determine their soothsaying. They’ll be more accurate.

Screenshot 2021-10-26 at 18.45.20.png
2
0
Think Harder
Think Harder
3 years ago
Reply to  Mr Dee

It makes me think we’re in a simulation and someone running it is taking the piss!

5
0
CynicalRealist
CynicalRealist
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

I think you are being very unfair.

To astrologers, that is – they are far more likely to get closer to reality than certain modellers tend to be…

3
0
CiacBiab
CiacBiab
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

Sounds like you were keen to Aries your thoughts on that, you do need to ram these things home.

1
0
Major Panic in the jabby jabbys
Major Panic in the jabby jabbys
3 years ago

SAGE cant be wrong forever, they’ve got to get their cloud formation and goats entrails type guesses predictions right eventually

12
0
Think Harder
Think Harder
3 years ago
Reply to  Major Panic in the jabby jabbys

No, it’s going to be a disastrous winter if SAGE are predicting otherwise. Goes to prove their predictions are good once you understand it’s a negative correlation.

Last edited 3 years ago by Think Harder
5
0
martinbritnell83
martinbritnell83
3 years ago

Well that pissed on Whitty’s fireworks didn’t it? I bet he’s fuming!

18
0
loopDloop
loopDloop
3 years ago

Twenty wrong predictions in a row, and now they get one right. Be grateful peasants.

Last edited 3 years ago by loopDloop
12
0
RickH
RickH
3 years ago

F. I’m worried now – looks like we could be in for a real epidemic. 🙂

29
0
isobar
isobar
3 years ago
Reply to  RickH

I’m worried too. Could be a ‘sunk cost’ scenario. I.e. we have got ‘infections’ down, let’s make sure that they stay down by introducing plan B.

8
0
Think Harder
Think Harder
3 years ago
Reply to  isobar

Or Psyops. Let them think it’s ok and then the Boosters do their job and will tell them, sorry you have to lockdown, wear a full face helmet and hop on one leg when you visit the empty supermarket having walked 3 miles because there’s no fuel.

5
0
Paul B
Paul B
3 years ago

All of this would be have been over 14 months ago if they would just stop meddling. Small summer blip, schools back, natural immunity built, old people released from isolating guidance. Sept 2020. If only we knew back then…….

23
0
Anonymous
Anonymous
3 years ago
Reply to  Paul B

We did know but we got sneered at, jeered at, ridiculed and brick-walled

3
0
Anti_socialist
Anti_socialist
3 years ago

So we like sage when it agrees with us do we?

I, for one, will still campaign for this shower of shi*s “scientists” to be disbanded & prosecuted for crimes against me personally.

23
0
D B
D B
3 years ago
Reply to  Anti_socialist

This was my immediate thought too!

6
0
CynicalRealist
CynicalRealist
3 years ago
Reply to  Anti_socialist

No, we don’t respect them at all – but it’s preferable that they come out with things which we agree with than that they follow their usual path of demanding more restrictions!

0
-1
Ross Hendry
Ross Hendry
3 years ago

This discovery explains a lot:

“Oxford University researchers have discovered the densest element yet known to science.

The new element, Governmentium (symbol=Gv), has one neutron, 25 assistant neutrons, 88 deputy neutrons and 198 assistant deputy neutrons, giving it an atomic mass of 312
.
These 312 particles are held together by forces called morons, which are surrounded by vast quantities of lepton-like particles called pillocks.

Since Governmentium has no electrons, it is inert. However, it can be detected, because it impedes every reaction with which it comes into contact.

A tiny amount of Governmentium can cause a reaction that would normally take less than a second, to take from 4 days to 4 years to complete.

Governmentium has a normal half-life of 2 to 6 years. It does not decay, but instead undergoes a reorganisation in which a portion of the assistant neutrons and deputy neutrons exchange places.

In fact, Governmentium’s mass will actually increase over time, since each reorganisation will cause more morons to become neutrons, forming isodopes.

This characteristic of moron promotion leads some scientists to believe that Governmentium is formed whenever morons reach a critical concentration.

This hypothetical quantity is referred to as a critical morass.

When catalysed with money, Governmentium becomes Administratium (symbol=Ad), an element that radiates just as much energy as Governmentium, since it has half as many pillocks but twice as many morons.”

66
0
Annie
Annie
3 years ago
Reply to  Ross Hendry

Now that’s what I call science.

12
0
isobar
isobar
3 years ago
Reply to  Ross Hendry

Love it. Nobel prize in the bag!

Last edited 3 years ago by isobar
14
0
Trabant
Trabant
3 years ago
Reply to  Ross Hendry

Class 👍

8
0
thinkcriticall
thinkcriticall
3 years ago
Reply to  Ross Hendry

Very Good!

6
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
3 years ago
Reply to  Ross Hendry

I agree with all positive comments and this piece deserves a wider audience.

As Trabant says:

Class.

6
0
Norman
Norman
3 years ago
Reply to  Ross Hendry

True scientific understanding.
And built from quarks of which self-interested, venal and useless are the most common.

Last edited 3 years ago by For a fist full of roubles
1
0
thinkcriticall
thinkcriticall
3 years ago

The number of COVID-19 inpatients in Wales (21 Sep 21) per 100k is HIGHEST for the FULLY VACCINATED:

wales2.png
6
0
Annie
Annie
3 years ago
Reply to  thinkcriticall

Muzzles, Nazipapiere, jibby-jabbies by the million, and the Gulag Wales ‘case’ rate goes through the roof.
Solution? More Nazipapiere, booster blackmail, more facepants – can’t fail, can it?

11
0
isobar
isobar
3 years ago

Don’t ‘bash’ Britain for big Covid outbreak, Oxford expert says

https://mol.im/a/10132489

1
0
TruthHurts2077
TruthHurts2077
3 years ago

Stabbing 💉
All 💉
Gullibles 💉
Everywhere 💉

15
0
AndyO
AndyO
3 years ago

Modellers predicting declining cases! Now I’m really worried 😀

12
0
Think Harder
Think Harder
3 years ago

I wonder what will happen with the boosters. Heard of 3 more serious adverse reactions this week. One ending in death 10 mins after the shot. If the rate of adverse was as low as is claimed it would be odd to hear of one. I have heard of others before this, one in the family.

5
0
A Sceptic
A Sceptic
3 years ago
Reply to  Think Harder

My Mum had a bad reaction to the booster, with hindsight she had a reaction in spring too. Affected her breathing (she has asthma), but much worse this time. Given all the stories about reactions I have heard all year, and the fact they seem to get worse with each jab, some will inevitably die. I now know 4 people with bad reactions, three of which ended up seriously ill in hospital.

5
0
Sandra Barwick
Sandra Barwick
3 years ago
Reply to  A Sceptic

V sorry to hear. Has she yellow carded both events? And can you persuade her not to have the next?

0
0
marebobowl
marebobowl
3 years ago

Could it simply be the cold virus has run its course for now? The koolaid is ineffective, hard to prove it helped. Herd immunity with T cell immunity a little more believable.

1
0
cloudster
cloudster
3 years ago

Thankfully we know that we can fully trust SAGE modelling! Ludicrous.

0
0
Sandra Barwick
Sandra Barwick
3 years ago

So Dishy is leaking from the Treasury against Boris and Sage.
Well done Dishy.

1
0

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