Peak

SAGE Modelling Predicts That Covid Cases Will Slump Even Without ‘Plan B’

Recent SAGE modelling has predicted that the rate of Covid infections will soon fall, even without the imposition of new restrictions, such as ‘Plan B’ measures which include vaccine passports and mandatory mask wearing. The booster vaccine roll out and an increase in natural immunity within children have been given as reasons for this decline in the number of Covid cases, with the modelling calculated at a time when the Covid case rate is already beginning to flatline. The MailOnline has the story.

While the figures are only based on a few days’ data, they are in line with some of the more optimistic projections from No10′ [sic] scientific advisory panel SAGE.

Modelling by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine for SAGE had cases dropping from next month without any additional restrictions, to as low as 5,000 per day through winter.

Scientists said that a combination of booster vaccines, growing natural immunity in children and a reduction in classroom mixing during the October half-term break would drag cases down. 

SAGE has previously been criticised for overegging the scale of the country’s outbreak, but Dr. Simon Clarke, from the University of Reading, said it looked like this time they “had a high chance of being right.”

But the Microbiologist told MailOnline: “Just as people criticised the shortcomings of pessimistic models we have to apply the same scepticism to such optimistic ones. But the team at LSHTM are very good at what they do.”

Professor Paul Hunter, an Epidemiologist at the University of East Anglia, said he “trusted” the LSHTM model, adding: “Over the next few weeks, we should start seeing a substantial fall in cases followed by hospitalisations.”

But not all scientists advising the Government agree, with many on SAGE publicly lobbying for masks, working from home and vaccine passports to safeguard against rising cases in winter. 

Downing St. was forced to defend its decision not to revert to ‘Plan B’ today after leaked Government documents showed the contingency plans could cost the economy £18billion this winter. The estimate for the damage from reverting to working from home and face masks was produced by the Treasury and Cabinet Office.

A separate paper from the Culture Department has raised concerns vaccine passports could be ‘counter-productive’ and drive people to poorly ventilated pubs.

Worth reading in full.

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