A post on the Daily Exposé on Thursday showed concerning statistics from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicating that deaths among teenagers over the summer have increased significantly on the previous year, coinciding with the vaccine roll-out.
I dug into the data a bit and I have to say I agree that it looks worrying. I’ve plotted above the deaths among 15-19 year-olds by week for 2020 and 2021. (Unfortunately the equivalent data isn’t available for previous years as prior to 2020 the breakdown was into 1-14 and 15-44 year-olds.)
The marked divergence around week 23 broadly corresponds to when the vaccination programme among the age group was being ramped up, as indicated below.
Between weeks 23 and 37 in 2021 there have been 252 deaths among 15-19 year-olds in England and Wales. This compares to 162 in the same period in 2020, an increase of 90 or 56%. That’s a lot, and deserves some kind of explanation.
Importantly, there is no similar rise among younger children aged 1-14, as the plot below shows. Interestingly, 2020 was a low-mortality year for this age group, presumably due to fewer deaths due to road accidents and such like. 2021 has had lower mortality again, illustrating how little threat COVID-19 is to children.
Covid cannot be blamed for the sudden rise in deaths among 15-19 year-olds in summer 2021, as the ONS data shows that over the period there were only nine deaths with Covid in that age group.
So what has suddenly increased the mortality rate since June in 15-19 year-olds, but not in younger children? It coincided with the rollout of vaccines, which are known to cause rare but serious side-effects in young people, especially myocarditis (heart inflammation). Is this real-world evidence that over the summer the vaccines killed nine times as many 15-19 year-olds as Covid did – 81 versus nine? If not, what are the other possible explanations and how likely are they?
I suggest that the medical authorities make an urgent priority of investigating the reasons for the sudden uptick in deaths among teenagers since June, before rolling out any more vaccines to young people.
Discussion
Comments
This week across the site:
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to the Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.
Thank you for waking a few folks up. Some say, its a slow #Holocaust By #Vaccine with Impunity? are they wrong? if you know this, doesn’t the politicians? so WHY , WHY do they carry on????
This is the deaths in the 15-44 age range for the 5 years 2016-2021. The interesting line of data is that for 2021(orange).
John, I think you have missed the 40-44 numbers in the above chart…?
This is the weekly deaths for the 15-19 age group for the years 2020 (orange) and 2021(blue) also included is the difference (grey)between the two 2020-2021.
.And…..right on cue: 15 year old healthy female kickboxer dies of (what is claimed to likely be) Covid induced myocarditis on the day she was due to get her jab. Well I think they’ve covered just about every base with this one.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10052041/Girl-15-dies-Covid-day-vaccinated.html
The data has unfortunately been misintepreted, there are no excess deaths in the 15-19 age group this year.
I’m totally against vaccinating the 16-17 and the 12-15 year groups and so I was interested to see if something really did happen this year around week 22-23, coinciding with the vaccine roll-out for the 16-17yo. In particular I started exploring to see if the difference in deaths was due to an increase in deaths in males, due to the reports of higher incidence of myocarditis in males compared to females.
But what I found was the completely unexpected!
To determine if something was happening around week 22/23, I took the actual deaths reported for weeks between 1 and 22, from which I was able to generate a linear model (see below). This model provided predicted values which we can then compare against the actual deaths and can continue up to week 53 etc.
The idea being that if something happened around week 22/23 then the actual deaths for weeks 23 to 37 should deviate from the model predicted deaths over the same period.
But plotting the data, we don’t see a deviation after week 22, in fact the actual deaths for… Read more »
Good interrogation of the data Chris. Is there any way to address the fact we are only considering two years, rather than five or ten though? How do we know which year is the typical year/summer ?
Not easily as the blog mentioned the previous years (pre-2020) do not record deaths in the 15-19 year old age bracket, but 1-14 and 15-44yo bracket.
Without knowing the data in the previous years it’s hard to determine if there really was a reduction around week 22 in 2020 (as I claimed in my post). It could be that 2020 compares favourably to the 5 years previous in which case there is indeed an increase in 2021.
But this is the problem with just having two years to compare against and the assumption of a linear model.
It’s a minefield really.
I applaud your efforts, but you need to be careful with time series analysis (autocorrelation problems), although in principle I agree that you’d expect a straight line absent seasonal effects (e.g. suicides in winter).
If the data was available I’d find it interesting to see a cross section analysis of death rates by age groups, in individual months, ideally cause of death, and proportion of the age group vaccinated.
Agreed. A lot of assumptions and generalisations made.
How dare Javid talk about care workers in the way he just has. The Government sent old people back into care homes to die and infect everyone else including care workers who became sick and fought Covid with no help and survived. Their reward is the sack and now insult added to injury he states they can’t be bothered to get the vaccine. What an insidious disgusting little man he is. Our care workers are the real heroes.
The data is not available for previous years? I suppose that depends how hard you want to look. The number of 15 to 19 year old deaths for each year is available in the Deaths
By Single Year Of Age tables.
The average number for 2015 to 2019 is 782 ranging from 720 in 2018 to 832 in 2015. The number of deaths in 2020 was well below the average at around 680 whilst the trend for 2021 appears to be heading toward the long term average.
Have you considered that the divergence in the trends might be due to that fact that 15 to 19 year old boys were not out in the streets killing each other or having accidents in 2020?
What should be more worrying to all of us is the fact that boys die at around twice the rate of girls in this age group and beyond into their thirties.
Here is my graph taken from ONS data up to 2019 for E&W. 2020 is from this article’s graph and 2021 is a linear extrapolation from this article’s chart for week 37.
The data from more than a few years ago is not particularly useful as it is not adjusted for population size and age distribution, but it gives a flavour of year to year fluctuation.
2020 had exceptionally low deaths in the 15-19 age group, which is understandable given that they couldn’t get out much. 2019 was also low, but this reflects the lowest death rate in history for the population as a whole, most likely due to a weak flu season.
I am vehemently opposed to using the currently available COVID vaccines on young people, but I don’t see this article as evidence that the vaccine is causing excess deaths in this age group.
A plea to all those in healthcare – it’s not too late to be brave enough to openly discuss and debate what is happening to our children. Please do what I know you dreamt of doing when you yourselves were children and then went on to study medicine, dentistry, nursing etc – to help everyone to become healthy through practicing your hard earned skills through tried, tested and rigorously approved, safe treatment plans. Here is another chance by speaking out.
Look at the graphs, this isn’t a rise in 2021 with the vaccines, it is something bizarrely low in 2020 (maybe they didn’t count all the suicides triggered by lockdown and therefore depressed the 2020 figures). The divergence I see in this graph is a strange reduction in gradient in 2020, not a gradient rise in 2021. Throughout 2021 the gradient stays the same. The UK government has commited many crimes against humanity: lockdowns, brutal policing, censorship of the true experts, vaccine passport plots, mandating medical interventions without consent… But what we have here is NOT evidence of “deadly vaccines”, just evidence of some weird reduction in teenage deaths in the latter part of 2020. I just want to make sure we are sensible and honest with our statistics so that the bedwetting zerocovid fanatics cannot hold “dodgy stats” as a charge against us, we’ve had pretty much a monopoly on truthful stats throughout this panicdemic, lets not break it now by stupidly ignoring that 2021 deaths are higher due to something making 2020 deaths lower. Just tell me how the 2021 line is not straight, almost perfectly so.
Would there normally be a drop-off in deaths during the summer months?? I understand there is amongst older people, but don’t know if this is true of teenagers.
Attorney Thomas Renz Releases Stunning Data from Never Before Seen Vaccine Injury/Death Tracking System – https://rumble.com/vn12v1-attorney-thomas-renz-we-got-them.-fact-check-this-all-new-whistleblower-inf.html
This is heartbreaking. All those poor kids brainwashed or blackmailed into something they never needed. No doubt the msm will try to spin this somehow. They are already trying to blame COVID on cases of multisystem inflammatory syndrome or mis-c in children when actually it’s a new syndrome caused by the jab – Dr. Bryan Ardis said as much here https://ourtube.co.uk/watch/ea7VMvU8K41rZsZ
We KNOW this. The pharmaceutical industry KNOWS this. The media KNOWS this. The politicians KNOW this. Doctors KNOW this.
They are killing children to make a political point about total control. They are killing children because they can. And what do we do? Post angry comments. Down vote them. We tut.
THEY ARE KILLING CHILDREN.
And we just watch.
What should be do – what CAN we do, practically?
OK Frank. Thanks for that great input.
I so badly wanted to be massively wrong about the lethality of covid19 vaccines in schoolchildren. We already knew that essentially none are killed by the virus itself, while those dying “with covid19” were always unfortunately in young people already carrying chronic illnesses sufficiently severe that the deaths are not a surprise. On those grounds, there’s no case for mass vaccination. Yet here we are just a few weeks into the campaign in the older teens. Does literally no one in officialdom care?
No, they do not. They appear to be following some kind of warped agenda that has nothing to do with public health.
Good to hear from you again Mike.
I think you know the answer to your question.
Blake Park Bandstand Bridgwater Somerset –
Sundays from 10 am
Meet friends – keep sane – we are awake.
Telegram Connecting Warriors
There are other groups too. There will be one near you wherever you are.
re: The marked divergence around week 23 broadly corresponds to when the vaccination programme among the age group was being ramped up, as indicated below.
The marked divergence started at week 17 before the vaccination programme among the age group was being ramped up
What a load of scaremongering nonsense. Week 23 of the year is June 7. The vaccination programme that included 18-19 year olds did not even start until June 18. The vaccination programme that included 15-18 year olds did not begin until August. There are stats for teenage mortalities for previous years. 2020 was a comparatively low year for teenage mortality. There were fewer road accidents and accidents in general due to lockdown. Both the headline and report are grotesquely misleading. The author has a maths doctorate so I suggest he knows all this and is driven by his ideological and evangelical Christian beliefs. That makes his report even more mischievous.
Young people were being vaccinated before this date, any centre that had excess opened vials had a network to ring around and people could turn up to avoid them going to waste. They were given to any young people that turned up.
I can concur – at my school practically the whole sixth form were jabbed in late May because a local clinic offered it to them and they had pushy parents who insisted on it.
Any investigation the Governmental Jab-Enthusiasts do will focus on their mental health and school attendance record ….. and ignore any physical issues. Move along, nothing to see here.
It seems to me that the vaccines being rolled out are still for Covid-19, which is the “Experimental Test Vaccine” you had to volunteer for, back in 2019, however, that said, I never get viruses, not for the past 27 years and there is no reason for any of you to get them either – I NEVER get Flu shots or anything else and my simple, free cure, has not killed me yet or the others I shared this with, over the years = not 1 death!!
Overburdened health authorities are trying to contain the pandemic through early interventions that protect the vulnerable regions of the human respiratory tract: the oral and nasal cavities. These regions are home to millions of viral particles that can be transmitted long-range through aerosolized droplets, increasing the risk of infection to caretakers and other highly exposed groups, like frontline workers. Since early 2020, there have been diverse clinical studies in repurposed antivirals, which can act as an adjunct to vaccination.
7 conditions for onset Flu or Coronavirus: taste, fever, new persistent cough, chills, appetite loss and muscle aches.
The Achilles Heel of Coronavirus, is while it is still in the developing stage as Coronavirus/Covid… Read more »
Interesting, and I’ll try it in the unlikely event I get close up to someone with a snorter of a cold or similar symptom.
I used to work in the NHS having hour- long appointments in Outpatients with people who had the sniffles or a barking cough, and the rooms were often small, soundproofed and windowless. When the mania for hand gel began, I would sometimes anoint my nasal passages with the stuff once the patient had departed and I had washed my hands. I didn’t take the proffered staff flu vaccine but managed to avoid illness for the most part. Never was sure about the theoretical soundness of the practice but your post reminded me of it.
This year’s graph is a straight line but last year’s dips during summer months. It’s very unfortunate that the data prior 2020 isn’t available as that would indicate which is “normal”
What does 5 years of the 15-44 age group look like and does this clarify at all?
Data from previous years IS available if the author had been bothered to look. The average from 2015 to 2019 is 782 deaths ranging from 720 in 2019 to 832 in 2015.
The number for 2020 was around 680 so well below the average and the trend for 2021 appears to be heading for the average.
Good
If it were possible to break it down to ethnic groups then there may be greater correlation.
With reference to Will’s last sentence, I suggest that it is a criminal matter if the medical authorities carry on “vaccinating” young people knowing what we know now, and in spite of JCVI advice.
It does all rather seem to be taking on the look of asymmetrical warfare…
Now in addition, extending water fluoridation is actively being considered. In a 1990s book on another subject the author remarked if it had a beneficial effect on teeth at all – and disregarding the major arguments against – that it worked only for children’s teeth anyway…?
https://post.parliament.uk/water-fluoridation-and-dental-health/
see comment
https://dailysceptic.org/2021/07/17/what-sage-gets-wrong-the-evidence-that-almost-everyone-is-exposed-during-a-surge-and-most-are-immune/#comment-550852
“It’s [PHE’s] been utterly unsuccessful in imposing a quite different unlicensed medicinal product on the entire population, fluoridated water, for decades, thanks to a small band of ‘activists’ who do actually know better. But now, in the guise of ‘rationalization’ of these identical twins, the NHS/PHE mafia, are to be merged as one super-Quango.
And as that paragon of public health virtue Matt (‘The Mouth’) Hancock gleefully proclaimed, this merger will enable the government ‘to seize back control’ and make water fluoridation a target of future policy reforms operated by – you guessed it? – the new monster health service.
And despite his departure, this unavoidable (i.e., effectively mandatory) form of mass medication is to be included in the current policy objectives, regardless of ethics or, indeed, medicine (the MHRA claims this is not a medicinal product!”) Does… Read more »
asymmetric warfare yes. In a class war waged against those who don’t even for the most part realise it’s happening.
i haven’t read this thread. forgive me.
this is one of those random posts that contains too much personal information to be constructive to any debate.
i’ve read l/d sceptic for over a year.
it has been my salvation. the comments are a million times more informative than the articles. you people have maintained my sanity.
i don’t doubt that toby set this up with the best of classical libertarian intentions but he and this sites editorial vigour have long since been lost to influence/money.
i am a middle-aged british man who has lived in europe for many years.
i desperately want to visit my widowed mother in the uk but i am terrified that once i get to the uk i may not be able to return to my home, life and business.
until very recently, my very small social group considered me a crazy person when i warned them about the political/societal restrictions and controls facing us.
the turning point was telling them that you cannot enter a shop or supermarket in france or italy unless you have proof of vaccine.
coming to a country near you soon.
i don’t know anyone who isn’t fully vaccinated. all my… Read more »
Hi! Wanted to respond to you even though this is right at the bottom of the thread and not sure you’ll ever see it. Just wanted to say how sorry I am for your situation, and that you’ve had to endure 18 months of, I presume, gaslighting and derision for holding very sensible opinions and concerns about the rise of oppressive tyranny in peaceful societies we once took for granted. You can see from the comments on this site you’re not alone and frankly anyone who isn’t fearful right now isn’t paying attention. I agree that the narrative is falling apart and have witnessed in my own life more and more people beginning to question what’s actually going on (and refusing their ‘booster’!) but try as I might I can’t envision this period of history ending well. The powers that be have played their hand and cannot back down without admitting that the whole things been a fraud so they’ll do what any regime under pressure does and double down. So I think we’ll all have to endure a difficult period but I’m optimistic about the future. The corrupt banking/corporate/tech ‘elite’ who seem to be driving this are a house… Read more »
I’ll just leave this here….
The euromomo.eu website, if selecting age range 15-44, is starting to look similar to this depressing graph. The graph is messy but mortality well above average in this age group, and rising
Today ‘vaccine passports’ were introduced in Scotland, primarily as a means of forcing young people to ‘get the jab’. And, as always, you can trust the SNP to make a bad idea worse. In this case by sneaking in additional powers under the ‘vaccine passport’ legislation. See the following extracts from the Spectator’s lunchtime briefing:
‘The regulations include a power for police to enter private property. Paragraph 16A states that a ‘relevant person’ may enter a premises to investigate or stop Covid rule-breaking if they ‘reasonably believe the situation to be urgent’. Quite a sweeping power in a democracy, and one that has been introduced with no warning and no parliamentary scrutiny.’
Not sure what constitutes an ‘urgent’ situation – drinking or dancing, perhaps? But it gets worse:
‘Normally, the right to forcibly enter a property would require a warrant from a judge. Now, the new powers grant ‘relevant persons’ the power to use reasonable force to enter the premises. What’s more, the first time Holyrood saw the measures was yesterday afternoon, less than 24 hours before they came into force this morning.’
Still, all credit to Nicola – failed states usually require independence before becoming bankrupt dictatorships. Our Dear Leader… Read more »
Frightening.
And one of the Canadian states passed almost exactly the same outrageous law a few days ago. Sasketchwan from memory
I just can’t cope with the juxtaposition of black eagle and blue saltire! It’s as funny as it is accurate and terrifying!
“If it hadn’t been for the vaccine, these teenagers would have been even more dead”, said Dept of Health spokesman Mr P Faiser.
Good one!
Mean while, in the land of the free, some states are enacting forced vaccination for children or there will not be able to attend school.
We all know that medicines have some sort of side effect. However, if you talk about sideeffects some think you some sort of nutter because it is preached that there are none.
I do not take some prescribed meds because the risks of side effects are too high for me to accept.
OK – I try to avoid conjecture but I have to get to the bottom of what’s going on. Here are some alternatives arranged in a table for convenience. Let me know which option you think best explains this ‘vaccine’ rollout.
Actually I don’t avoid conjecture at all. I’m just saying that to appear more credible.
A+B+C+D+E=F
I like your thinking but it doesn’t help resolve this..
Crisis
Maybe your great table misses out the A* Row:
Primary Culprit – The Pandemic
Key Motive – to Save Lives
Adverse Effects – Incredibly Rare and Coincidental
Ultimate Aim – Zero Plague
Does this make total sense of a Jab which don’t work?
You’re absolutely right. I really should have included a row that read like that but didn’t want to stray too far into the implausible.
BTW I’m going for B.
I’d set aside F as outside the bounds of reasoned discussion (not saying it’s impossible, just that it requires a faith-based analysis).
E I find rather comical, because I have more respect for China’s level of competence that to expect them to inflict such a nothing-burger, if they were taking the risks of engaging in an act of war. Plus the US seems up to its neck in whatever was going on in China virus-wise as well.Remember, the vast, vast majority of all the damage inflicted on the US sphere has been self-inflcted, by virtue of the insane response.
“Big pharma and their financial stakeholders”, “globalist capitalist class”, “billionaire parasite class” and “Davos/WEF crowd” all just code for the modern global and globalist elite, or various subgroups of it, and they have pretty much all pushed for this. Most likely each group for their own separate objectives.
As with the attack on Iraq, I do not think you will find a single, completely explanatory cause. For such big policy movements, there has to be a convergence of interests among several major interest/power groups.
So roughly, A+B+C+D.
Can’t argue with any of that. I should have included a ‘convergence of malign interests’ row for sure!
The last one. Satan, with a legion of supremely evil storm troopers backed by supremely stupid zombie footsoldiers, is taking possession of society. We can only resist as best we can, and pray.
I’m willing to try anything!
Nice work.
I think F is behind all of A-E though. Call it Satan, or call it plain old evil, it’s the same thing.
Also I think global billionaires and WEF are potentially the same?
The thing that I don’t get is that it is a Chinese bio weapon but funded by the US. Fauci is the link. Who does he work for? That will give the answer.
You’re right they are kind of the same parties – but slight distinction if the underlaying driving factor is economic collapse (this would mean it’s about causing maximum division and civil unrest, rather than forcing everyone to comply with the vaccines).
A,B and D colluding is where my thinking is at the moment. (Subject to change as/when new evidence emerges.) I don’t buy into the depopulation argument for three reasons . . .
crisisgarden – I note you’ve declined to pay lip service to Toby by including a ‘Incompetence & Cockupery’ listing! :-)))
I completely agree – depopulation is a bridge too far for me (but I’m keeping it there as a possibility, because it sure as hell looks like this)
Oh yes, I did leave out incompetence and cockupery. Silly me!
I asked a question about depopulation in the forum and it got little traffic, and much of that was from the resident 77th, as I anticipated.
Was hoping for a rational discussion as to the likelihood of such a plan, and who would benefit, other than Gaia. As has been noted, what’s the point of killing off the customer base?
I’m completely up for discussing it rationally – but my gut instinct is that this is economic. It feels like a divide and conquer strategy (and a continuation of a strategy which we’ve witnessed for several years in the form of identity politics). The financial elite/parasite class know the (Western debt based) game is up and want chaos and division to disguise this and turn attention away from them; this seems like the most logical explanation.
but why mandate mass vaccination – with hideous consequences not all of which can now considered to be unintended, considering a plethora of extremely experienced doctors in this field have concurred with each other that the jab is very harmful and should be discontinued as a matter of urgency before further harms are caused?
That’s the question at the heart of this situation isn’t it. Clearly there are converging interests at play. What seems certain to me is that the financial overlords are carrying out a long planned fundamental change to the way the global economy will work and that they have decided that vaccination status will be used as a means of controlling and limiting access to things such as travel, food and energy. On the WEF website there is a complex interactive diagram showing vaccination at the heart of all human transactions, so this is planned and to suggest otherwise is I think naïve. However the paradox is that if you were indeed intending to coerce all human beings into joining your vaccination based economic system, you wouldn’t begin by mandating a vaccine with such obvious side effects; it could just be saline. So either the side effects are a genuine surprise to those running the scam, or something more sinister is in play. That’s why I’m more inclined to think that the plandemic has been staged as an emergency coverup of a financial collapse, in order to divide the population, cause civil unrest and protect the perpetrators from pitch forks when… Read more »
What is different between last year and this?
Is there a differences between the sexes that are different to previous years?
What about life shortening conditions?
Road traffic accidents?
increased knife crime.
Increased mental health problems amongst this age group.
It could be the vaccine, but it could be coincidence.
There are too many confounding factors.
What is needed is a detailed breakdown of causes, otherwise it is just numbers.
Forgive my scepticism but there could be confirmation bias.
https://www.myocarditisfoundation.org/about-myocarditis/
Of course it could also be the lack of front line medical care available whilst GPs sit comfortably behind their screens rather than see patients in their surgery.
The point is that it’s an alarming rise that needs to be investigated thoroughly and quickly so that we can reverse the trend.
Doesn’t it equate to an average of one extra death per day over a period of 3 months as this cumulative data?
It looks “worrying?” Just worrying? I would say it’s a total catastrophe and needs to stop immediately. What are we waiting for?!