• Login
  • Register
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result

“This is Still a Very Dangerous Disease,” Says Boris Johnson. But Neil Ferguson Disagrees: “The Equation has Fundamentally Changed”

by Will Jones
27 July 2021 1:16 PM
FILE PHOTO: Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson holds a news conference on the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in London, Britain March 29, 2021. Hollie Adams/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo

FILE PHOTO: Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson holds a news conference on the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in London, Britain March 29, 2021. Hollie Adams/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo

Boris Johnson today told reporters that Covid is “still a very dangerous disease” as he encouraged people to stick with self-isolation when ‘pinged’. “Don’t forget, we will be coming forward with a new system from August 16th,” he said during a visit to Surrey Police HQ in Guildford. “Until then please everyone, stick with the programme.”

He also warned against drawing “premature conclusions” from the dropping coronavirus case numbers, saying:

I’ve noticed, obviously, that we are six days in to some better figures. But it is very, very important that we don’t allow ourselves to run away with premature conclusions about this. Step Four of the opening-up only took place a few days ago, people have got to remain very cautious and that remains the approach of the Government.

The PM’s remarks may be little more than prudent caution, but describing Covid as “still a very dangerous disease” doesn’t tally with the fatality rate, always very low for most of the population at below 0.1%, and now apparently reduced further including for those at higher risk by the vaccination programme. Does Boris not believe the vaccines are effective? If he doesn’t, what was the point of them? The Government needs to sort out its messaging on this.

Beyond messaging, though, why is the Government continuing with plans for Test and Trace beyond August 16th? When do they plan to accept that the crisis is over and cease all emergency public health measures and return us to the way things were in February 2020?

It’s all very well warning about “premature conclusions” but there’s nothing premature about pointing out that the fast drop in reported positive cases in the past nine days (down over 50%) was not predicted by any Government scientists or their models. Even if it doesn’t continue (though it looks like it may, as it has in Scotland) it points to serious problems with their model assumptions about how this virus spreads and who is susceptible.

Sceptics who have been following the data and scientific studies will not be surprised by the fall in infections despite the lifting of restrictions, as there is no evidence that imposing restrictions is necessary to end a Covid epidemic and no evidence that lifting restrictions triggers an ‘exit wave’, which occurred neither in the U.K. last summer nor in the U.S. this spring. Government ministers and scientists, however, may be slower to accept the implication of herd immunity (at least for this season and variant) that the latest fall implies.

Not, though, it seems Professor Neil Ferguson, who was on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme today, backtracking on his claims on July 18th that it was “almost inevitable” that daily cases would climb to 100,000 and distinctly possible they would hit 200,000, giving us a “difficult summer”. Now, apparently, “the equation has fundamentally changed”.

We need to remain cautious, especially with the potential increase in contact rates again as the weather becomes less fine and schools return. We’re not completely out of the woods, but the equation has fundamentally changed. The effect of vaccines is hugely reducing the risk of hospitalisations and death. And I’m positive that by late September or October time we will be looking back at most of the pandemic. We will have Covid with us, we will still have people dying from Covid, but we’ll have put the bulk of the pandemic behind us.

Okay, it’s still a pretty cautious statement, and why wait till October when cases are plummeting now despite ending restrictions? But it’s the first sign of a new tune from the SAGE gloomsters. If the PM won’t listen to us sceptics, even though we’re increasingly being vindicated by events, will he listen to his failed advisers as they change their tune?

Tags: Boris JohnsonDeclining InfectionsFreedom DayLockdownsNeil FergusonVaccines

Donate

We depend on your donations to keep this site going. Please give what you can.

Donate Today

Comment on this Article

You’ll need to set up an account to comment if you don’t already have one. We ask for a minimum donation of £5 if you'd like to make a comment or post in our Forums.

Sign Up
Previous Post

Can We Say, Definitively, that the SAGE Models are Wrong?

Next Post

Covid Cases Have Fallen Every Day For a Week

Subscribe
Login
Notify of
Please log in to comment

To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.

Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.

115 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Hugh
Hugh
2 years ago

Yes. To be fair, the garden thermometer reading during the recent hot spell (“40C”) was 94 degrees, compared to, as I remember, a previous highest of around 90 degrees over the past few decades. All irrelevant anyway, what is needed is a proper accurate cost-benefit analysis for governments trying to change the climate (and for that matter how likely they actually are in the real world to essentially leave wealth in the ground when hard times come and people are feeling the pinch).

By the way, does anyone know how much influence (if any) the solar flare at the time of the “40C” reading had (and what value readings from next to busy airfields have for that matter)?

26
-1
Matt Dalby
Matt Dalby
2 years ago

The vast majority of models show enhanced warming over the Arctic, but closer to twice the global average. This is true regardless of whether the forcings fed into the models are natural or the supposed effect of carbon dioxide. I assume that the opposite is also true and if we are entering a period of global cooling the Arctic will cool faster than the rest of the globe meaning that any cooling trend will become obvious in Arctic temperatures before it shows up in global data sets.

3
0
EppingBlogger
EppingBlogger
2 years ago

Just enjoyed a very pleasant evening on our patio (ak agin palace) after a hottish day. Nothing unique as far as I can recall (born 1949).

22
0
allanplaskett
allanplaskett
2 years ago

A major work Arctic Ice was published in 1940, by the Russian oceanographer N. N. Zhubov.  It reads in places like an abstract of the modern Arctic-ice alarm.  Arctic temperatures in the 1920s and 1930s rose at unprecedented rates.   Vast areas that once were ice-bound had become navigable.  Fish species never before seen so far north were now commonly brought up in the nets of arctic fishermen.  The general winter temperatures were several degrees higher than the maxima of previous decades.  

5
0
jimshall
jimshall
2 years ago

Not too bad for Greenland ice sheet either despite the doom-mongering http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

0
0

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

DONATE

PODCAST

The Sceptic EP.37: David Frost on Starmer’s EU Surrender, James Price on Broken Britain and David Shipley on Lucy Connolly’s Failed Appeal

by Richard Eldred
23 May 2025
7

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editor’s Picks

News Round-Up

27 May 2025
by Richard Eldred

GB News’s ‘Anti-woke’ Comedy Show Faces Axe After Thousands of Complaints

27 May 2025
by Richard Eldred

How Jubilation Turned to Tragedy on Liverpool’s Darkest Day Since Hillsborough

27 May 2025
by Richard Eldred

What Happened to Systemic Common Sense?

26 May 2025
by C.J. Strachan

Tommy Robinson Released From Prison

27 May 2025
by Richard Eldred

Tommy Robinson Released From Prison

32

How Jubilation Turned to Tragedy on Liverpool’s Darkest Day Since Hillsborough

30

What Happened to Systemic Common Sense?

53

GB News’s ‘Anti-woke’ Comedy Show Faces Axe After Thousands of Complaints

26

News Round-Up

25

Alasdair MacIntyre 1929-2025

27 May 2025
by James Alexander

Lies, Damned Lies and Casualty Numbers in Ancient History

26 May 2025
by Guy de la Bédoyère

Lord Frost: “The Boriswave Was a Catastrophic Error”

26 May 2025
by Laurie Wastell

The Legal Case Against the AfD Has Collapsed

25 May 2025
by Eugyppius

Plebeians Can No Longer Rant About Bloody Murder

25 May 2025
by James Alexander

POSTS BY DATE

July 2021
M T W T F S S
 1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031  
« Jun   Aug »

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

POSTS BY DATE

July 2021
M T W T F S S
 1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031  
« Jun   Aug »

DONATE

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editor’s Picks

News Round-Up

27 May 2025
by Richard Eldred

GB News’s ‘Anti-woke’ Comedy Show Faces Axe After Thousands of Complaints

27 May 2025
by Richard Eldred

How Jubilation Turned to Tragedy on Liverpool’s Darkest Day Since Hillsborough

27 May 2025
by Richard Eldred

What Happened to Systemic Common Sense?

26 May 2025
by C.J. Strachan

Tommy Robinson Released From Prison

27 May 2025
by Richard Eldred

Tommy Robinson Released From Prison

32

How Jubilation Turned to Tragedy on Liverpool’s Darkest Day Since Hillsborough

30

What Happened to Systemic Common Sense?

53

GB News’s ‘Anti-woke’ Comedy Show Faces Axe After Thousands of Complaints

26

News Round-Up

25

Alasdair MacIntyre 1929-2025

27 May 2025
by James Alexander

Lies, Damned Lies and Casualty Numbers in Ancient History

26 May 2025
by Guy de la Bédoyère

Lord Frost: “The Boriswave Was a Catastrophic Error”

26 May 2025
by Laurie Wastell

The Legal Case Against the AfD Has Collapsed

25 May 2025
by Eugyppius

Plebeians Can No Longer Rant About Bloody Murder

25 May 2025
by James Alexander

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union
  • Home
  • About us
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy

Facebook

  • X

Instagram

RSS

Subscribe to our newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password? Sign Up

Create New Account!

Fill the forms below to register

All fields are required. Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In

© Skeptics Ltd.

wpDiscuz
You are going to send email to

Move Comment
Perfecty
Do you wish to receive notifications of new articles?
Notifications preferences