30 July 2021 – The Daily Sceptic

Confusion Over Whether Cases Are Rising or Falling

According to MailOnline, daily Covid cases in the U.K. fell for the ninth consecutive day in a row today.

Britain’s daily covid cases fell again today for the ninth day in a row, amid mounting confusion over true state of the third wave.
Department of Health bosses posted 29,622 cases – down 18.6% on last week.
In another glimmer of hope, hospitalisations (927) and deaths (68) appear to be slowing down – with both measures up just 6% on last Friday.

However, it cannot be true that daily cases have fallen for the ninth day in a row since they stood at below 25,000 on July 26th and now stand at 29,622. It appears that MailOnline means that this is the ninth day in a row in which the daily toll is less than it was exactly one week before.

Meanwhile, yesterday’s Guardian reported that daily cases had gone up for the second day in a row:

The daily number of Covid cases reported in the U.K. has risen for the second day in a row, although experts have cautioned against drawing premature conclusions from the fluctuations.
On Thursday, 31,117 cases were reported in the UK, up from 27,734 the day before, which marked the first rise in cases since July 20th.

To further complicate matters, the ONS published its weekly infection survey today and reported that the percentage of the population testing positive has increased slightly in England, Wales and Northern Ireland compared to the previous week, although it’s fallen in Scotland:

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By Toby Young / 30 July 2021 • 18.39

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Tens of Thousands of Brits Won’t Tell NHS Test and Trace Who They’ve Come Into Contact With

Almost a quarter of Brits contacted by Test and Trace in the week up to July 21st refused to disclose their recent close contacts, as reports suggest that people are beginning to revolt against the ‘pingdemic’. MailOnline has the story.

The controversial contact tracing system made 250,000 calls in the seven-day spell ending July 21st, making it the busiest week since the darkest period of the second wave in January.
But nearly a quarter of infected people who were contacted didn’t cooperate, in a signal that people may now be trying to protect family, friends and colleagues from having to self-isolate.
The rate of Covid-infected people who’ve avoided naming close contacts has risen consistently since the third wave started to gather steam in June, from 14.1% to 23.1%.
Government data yesterday underlined just how bad the ‘pingdemic’ has become, with a record 1.5 million quarantine instructions sent out in the same week.
Millions of workers have been unable to do their jobs because they’ve been told to isolate, leaving supermarket shelves empty, pubs and restaurants shut, and trains cancelled across the country. …
The £37 billion Test and Trace programme – set-up last May – has been branded a monumental waste of money by politicians for failing in its only goal to stop another lockdown.
Since it was set up 14 months ago, England has faced two more national lockdowns and two Covid waves. …
If NHS Test and Trace contact tracers are unable to reach infected people, their details are passed on to local authorities to follow-up.
Of the 251,190 people asked to provide close contacts in the most recent week, just 193,000 provided the names and numbers of those who they may have passed the virus onto.
More than 58,000 refused to do so.

Worth reading in full.

By Michael Curzon / 30 July 2021 • 12.44

Self-Isolation Test and Trace Testing

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NHS Admits 25% of Patients With Covid Were Admitted For Something Else

We’re publishing a guest post today from our in-house doctor, a senior clinician in private practice who used to work for the NHS. This one’s a bit of a shocker.

On Thursdays, the NHS releases the weekly summary data in relation to Covid patients. Normally this is a more granular version of the daily summaries – it has some hospital level detail and figures on non-Covid workload for comparison. Usually interesting but not especially informative.

Yesterday was an exception. Placed down at the bottom of the page, almost like a footnote, was a ‘Primary Diagnosis’ Supplement. Graph 1 shows the information contained in that spreadsheet. I find it astonishing. In essence it shows that since June 18th, the NHS has known its daily figures in relation to ‘Covid inpatients’ were unreliable at best and deliberately untrue at worst.

The yellow bars are what the NHS has been telling the nation were Covid inpatients. The blue bars are the numbers of inpatients actually suffering from Covid symptoms – the difference between the two are patients in hospital who tested positive for COVID-19 but were being treated for something different – where Covid was effectively an incidental finding but not clinically relevant.

For example, on July 27th, the total number of beds occupied by Covid patients was reported as 5,021. However, until today, we were not allowed to know that only 3,855 of those were actually admitted with Covid as the primary diagnosis. There has been a fairly consistent over estimate of the true number by about 25% running back to mid-June – figures before that date are “not available”.

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By Toby Young / 30 July 2021 • 12.06

Misinformation Our NHS Trust

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“For All I Care, You Can Die Anytime”: Philippine President’s Message to the Unvaccinated

If you’re unvaccinated and live in the Philippines, the message is (for once) clear: if you leave your home, the police will escort you back, and your President doesn’t care if you die. In a televised address, President Rodrigo Duterte said “walking spreaders” should be confined to their homes, adding: “For all I care, you can die anytime.”

To those people who do not want to be vaccinated, I am telling you ‘don’t go out of your house’, because if you do go out of your house, I will tell the police to return you to your home. You will be escorted back to your house because you are a walking spreader.

🚨 | NEW: Philippines’ President Duterte orders authorities to confine the unvaccinated to their homes

Via @nytimes

pic.twitter.com/5isQz0tUvL
— Politics For All (@PoliticsForAlI) July 30, 2021

AP News has more.

Rodrigo Duterte is warning that Filipinos who refuse to get vaccinated against the coronavirus will not be allowed to leave their homes as a safeguard against the more contagious Delta variant.
Duterte said in televised remarks Wednesday night that there is no law mandating such a restriction but added he is ready to face lawsuits to keep people who are “throwing viruses left and right” off the streets. …
However, more than public hesitance, the Philippines has been grappling with vaccine shortages.
Nearly seven million Filipinos have been fully vaccinated and more than 11 million others have received their first dose. That is a fraction of the Government’s target of 60 million to 70 million people.

Worth reading in full.

By Michael Curzon / 30 July 2021 • 11.08

Philippines Rodrigo Duterte Vaccine Vaccine Passports

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Brits Must Get Vaccinated ”If They Want to Travel Internationally Again”, Says Grant Shapps

Dominic Raab wasn’t kidding when he said vaccine passports are intended to “coax and cajole” people – especially young people – into getting vaccinated against Covid. This campaign has been upped again today, with Transport Secretary Grant Shapps warning that “if [people in their 20s] want to travel internationally again”, they must get ‘jabbed’. “It’s quite clear now,” he added. The Sun has the story.

The Transport Secretary told young people they should get double-jabbed to regain the freedom to cross borders. …
Mr Shapps said the U.K. is getting back to normal because “fortunately in this country we have very little vaccine hesitancy”.
He said a whopping 90% of Brits have now received a jab but conceded that take up has been lower amongst younger adults.
The Transport Secretary suggested that ministers are relying on the lure of foreign hols to persuade people in their 20s to get vaccinated.
He said: “They will need to get vaccinated if they want to travel internationally again. It’s quite clear now.”
Double-jabbed Brits returning from amber list countries – which includes almost all of Europe and the U.S. – now don’t need to isolate.
The new policy, which comes into force on Monday, will open up hassle-free hols to millions of Brits for the first time in two years.
A number of the popular countries with British tourists also now demand proof of vaccination to enter.
They include favourite destinations on the continent like Portugal, Malta, and France.
Meanwhile double-jabbed visitors to Spain and Greece are able to avoid the cost and uncertainty of needing to provide negative tests. …
Mr Shapps also predicted that having to be double-jabbed to return to the office will become the norm for some workers.
He said it would be a “good idea” for all Brits to get vaccinated before ending working from home.
The cabinet minister insisted there are no plans for the Government to make it compulsory but “some companies will require it”.

Worth reading in full.

By Michael Curzon / 30 July 2021 • 10.17

Grant Shapps Overseas Travel Vaccine Vaccine Passports Young People

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News Round-Up

“Hospital figures for Covid cases ‘misleading’” – Government accused of making “flawed decisions” after NHS finds quarter of virus patients had other causes of admission, according to the Telegraph.
“Covid vaccine passport is here after change to NHS app – official” – Wording on the NHS app means businesses now able to see evidence that customers have been double jabbed, reports the Standard.
“More than 50 Tory MPs prepared to vote AGAINST Covid passports” – Boris Johnson had announced that certificates proving double vaccinations will be needed to enter nightclubs and potentially other venues and universities from September, says MailOnline.
“France DID go on amber-plus because of Covid beta variant in Island” – Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab openly admitted France was added to amber-plus list because of the prevalence of the strain ‘in the Reunion bit of France’ – which is an island in the Indian Ocean nowhere near Paris, says MailOnline.
“Neil Ferguson ‘overconfident’ in his Covid claims, says top US forecaster” – Nate Silver hits out at bold statements by the British epidemiologist who predicted virus cases could rise to 100,000 a day, reports the Telegraph.
“Why are we in thrall to ‘superforecasters’ like Professor Neil Ferguson?” – The epidemiologist got it wrong with his Covid crystal ball and he’s not the only one – but why were we so trusting? asks the Telegraph.
“Have I been unfair to Neil Ferguson?” – Freddy Sayers in UnHerd thinks he may have been too unkind to Professor Lockdown.
“How EU leaders destroyed AstraZeneca’s Covid vaccine dream” – The company is weighing up whether it wants a future in vaccines as its jab remains marred by early criticism.
“Covid test and trace revolt as growing number refuse to hand over contacts’ details” – As economy falters in face of the ‘pingdemic’, official figures show compliance has fallen by almost 10% in the past month, according to the Telegraph.
“Am I alone in not wanting to download the Covid app?” – Lionel Shriver says in her Spectator column that she has no desire to download the Covid app and risk being ‘pinged’.
“Vaccine passports could threaten the employment recovery” – Kate Andrews in the Spectator says vaccine passports could damage the economy.
“A volte face over what caused the pandemic needs explaining” – “Why did scientists suddenly change their minds about the possibility of a leak from Wuhan’s Institute of Virology?” asks Matt Ridley in the Spectator. “Jeremy Farrar offers no good answers.”
“Coronavirus: SafePass to enter all shops under discussion” – Reports indicate that the enforcement of the SafePass in Cyprus is likely to widen, likely including kiosks and mini-markets.
“‘Liberal’ Lawmaker: Young People Need ‘Coercion’ of Vaccine Passports” – Baroness Kennedy says students “need a little bit of coercion” in the form of forced vaccinations to attend university, says Brietbart.
“Compulsory workplace vaccination rules cannot apply to vegans” – Warning by lawyers highlights ethical issues in trying to force vegans to have jabs.
“Biden wants state, local govts to pay $100 to newly vaccinated Americans” – President Biden is calling for state, local and U.S. territorial governments to provide $100 payments for every newly vaccinated American to boost COVID-19 inoculation rates, the U.S. Treasury Department said on Thursday.
“Liberal Feels Sad For Man Dying Of COVID, Then Happy After Hearing He Wasn’t Vaccinated, Then Sad Again Because He Was An Illegal Immigrant” – Razor sharp satire from the Babylon Bee.
“You’d have to be nuts to call me ‘anti-vax’” – Frederick Edwards in Bournbrook Magazine says he’s not anti-vaxx, just not very keen on the Covid vaccinations.
“The myth that vaccination prevents transmission” – HART parses the evidence on vaccines and transmission.
“Journalists claim COVID-19 news has been ‘censored’ for ‘official narrative’” – A group of almost 30 journalists have banded together to object to “censorship” and “fearmongering” in the COVID-19 narrative from media and tech giants, according to U.K. Press Gazette.
“AstraZeneca vaccine ‘has same risk of blood clots as Pfizer’s’” – Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine is just as likely to trigger blood clots as AstraZeneca’s, according to a study in Spain that has prompted fury among U.K. Government officials, who blame EU resentment over Brexit for the demonisation of the AstraZeneca jab.
“The real reasons for South Africa’s riots” – Andrew Kenny, a native South African, explains what’s behind the recent rioting.
“Now Boris Johnson must show what he REALLY stands for ” – What does Boris stand for? asks Stephen Glover in the Mail. Does he stand for anything? Does he have strong political beliefs?
“220,000 Member American Postal Workers Union Releases Statement Against Mandatory Vaccinations for Federal Employees” – One of America’s largest trade unions has come out against mandatory jabs for its members.
“Britain, climate change and the reality of extreme weather events” – Ross Clark in the Spectator cautions against attributing the recent extreme weather to climate change.
“Environmentalists have got it wrong – we’re not facing an insect apocalypse” – The doomsday claims are not backed up by scientific research, says Matt Ridley in the Telegraph.
“Scientists fear climate change may have reached the point of no return” – Earth’s ‘vital signs’ are getting worse and there’s evidence that many are close or have surpassed ‘tipping points,’ scientists warned on Wednesday in a new study, according to MailOnline.
“From COP26 to COVID19: The Fallacy of Predictive Models and a Return to Real Thinking” – Interesting essay by Matt Ehret looking at the flawed modelling behind climate change alarmism and COVID-19.
“Olympic Pseudoscience – Tokyo Edition” – Steven Novella in Science Based Medicine looks at some of the snake oil sold on the back of performances by Olympic athletes.
“Newmarket councillors pass vote of no confidence in local MP Matt Hancock” – Another blow to the former Health Secretary, whose political comeback is looking less likely by the day.
“Britain back in business? Er, no chance ” – “With any luck, flying abroad won’t be a big problem for much longer,” says Richard Littlejohn in the Mail, taking aim at LTNs and cycle lanes. “It’s getting around Britain that’s the real nightmare.”
“Alan Jones column pulled from the Daily Telegraph amid anti-lockdown, COVID-19 controversies” – News Corp’s Daily Telegraph has pulled a weekly column by controversial broadcaster and lockdown sceptic Alan Jones.
“Charles Murray’s Facing Reality—A Review” – Razib Khan reviews Facing Reality: Two Truths about Race in America by Charles Murray for Quillette.
“Facebook’s hate speech curbs violated Germans’ rights, court rules” – In a landmark decision, Germany’s supreme court has said Facebook must give users a right to respond before it suspends their accounts.
“Alan Rusbridger always wins” – Certain liberal panjandrums will always land plum jobs, no matter what their track record, says Douglas Murray in UnHerd.
“Chef says teaching kids not to eat with hands promotes racism” – Conservative MP for Ashfield in Nottinghamshire Lee Anderson has said the claims made by chef Joshna Maharaj are “rubbish”, according to MailOnline.
“Stabbed for critiquing Islam” – This Sunday at Speakers’ Corner, the well-known “home of free speech”, Christian evangelist Hatun Tash was brutally stabbed by a man wearing a black Islamic robe. Tim Dieppe, who works for the Christian Legal Centre, takes up Haton’s cause in the Critic.
“‘This is not over’: Van-Tam says autumn and winter will be ‘bumpy’ as record number are pinged by app” – The Deputy Chief Medical Officer of England claims the vaccines have saved 60,000 lives.
“If 60,000 prevented deaths there would have been 116,056 with no vaccines. 3x more than last year??? Really?” – Good tweet from consultant surgeon Dr. Anthony Hinton casting doubt on Van-Tam’s claim about the number of lives saved by the vaccines.

Covid deaths Jan-July 2020 41,220 with no vaccines. Covid Deaths Jan-July 2021 56,056 with vaccines. That’s 14,836 more deaths with vaccines. If 60,000 prevented deaths there would have been 116,056 with no vaccines. 3x more than last year??? Really? https://t.co/7n11nshdYH
— Dr Anthony Hinton (@TonyHinton2016) July 29, 2021

By Toby Young / 30 July 2021 • 02.42

News Round-Up

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Is Christopher Snowdon an Anti-Vaxxer?

Christopher Snowdon is plainly an anti-vaxxer, however well he tries to hide it. “Existing Covid vaccines are simply not good enough at preventing transmission and infection,” he writes. Hasn’t he read the trial results, showing 95% efficacy against infection for the Pfizer vaccine and 74% for the AstraZeneca vaccine? Or the large population study from Israel showing Pfizer’s 92% efficacy? Or the study from Public Health England showing 67% and 88% vaccine efficacy against the Delta variant for AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines respectively?

On what does he base his bald assertion that they are “not good enough at preventing transmission and infection”? Clearly not the science. He doesn’t appear to feel it necessary to give a single scientific reference for a claim that flies in the face of all these respectable studies, leaving the baffled reader assuming he must have picked it up in some article he read on an obscure website somewhere, presumably by a pseudo-scientific sceptic in denial.

This, of course, is not the way to go about intelligently criticising someone’s viewpoint. Which is precisely my point. As it happens, I agree with Christopher that the current vaccines are not very good at preventing infection or transmission, particularly now the Delta variant is in town. But I’m also aware that that is not the current mainstream scientific position (though it is based on recent official data and reports). Rather, it is currently a claim being circulated among the very networks that Christopher pillories in his recent piece in Quillette, naming and shaming the “coronavirus cranks”.

It seems, then, that Christopher is not averse to a spot of ‘crankery’ himself. But how helpful really is all this name-calling, mudslinging and smear by association? Science does not advance by consensus, by everyone agreeing, or by closing down dissenters. Christopher himself is evidently sceptical of one of the key mainstream vaccine claims – that they are highly effective against infection and transmission – so inadvertently places himself within the ambit of his own polemic. Indeed, at one point he fires a shot at the ‘smileys’, as he calls sceptics, for being sceptical of the vaccines, arguing the jabs “have been tested in clinical trials and have demonstrated their safety and effectiveness beyond reasonable doubt in recent months”. Yet he himself goes on to doubt their effectiveness!

Is Christopher Snowdon an Anti-Vaxxer?Read More

By Will Jones / 30 July 2021 • 00.11

Christopher Snowdon Florida Lockdown Sceptics Sweden Vaccines

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