Day: 16 May 2021

In spite of a last-minute lobbying campaign by various SAGE panjandrums to postpone step three of the Prime Minister's roadmap, most parts of the U.K. will be easing restrictions on Monday. Praise the Lord.

We're publishing an original piece of data analysis today by a leading British scientists. He believes the data show that the population had surpassed the herd immunity threshold in December, before the vaccine roll-out.

Summary Population immunity played a major role in ending each wave of SAR-CoV-2 infectionHerd immunity thresholds differ by about two-fold across England, and have been reachedDifferent herd immunity thresholds correlate with regional differences in ethnicity and air temperature – possibly both operating by changing the rate of indoor contactsThe Infection Fatality Rate has changed dramatically during the pandemic: it first rose during (and possibly because of) lockdowns, and then fell by over eight-fold as older and vulnerable individuals were vaccinated. It is now so low, and herd immunity so well established, that vaccinating younger adults and children with novel genetic technology vaccines cannot be medically or ethically justified. 1. Population Immunity is a Substantial Factor This chart shows the % positivity rate in Pillar 2 testing over the course of the pandemic, and compares this to when lockdowns were initiated and when the initial wave started to slow. Clearly, each lockdown was initiated after the virus spread had either started to slow or had peaked and was already falling. That is not to say the lockdowns did nothing to assist in subsequent declines, but some other factor(s) must have been acting to limit the spread of the virus. Reasonable candidates include:(i) people instinctively deciding to shelter and keep their distance from others due to concerns over the virus(ii) growth in ...

Professor Robert Dingwall, a member of NERVTAG, appeared on BBC Radio 5 this morning to talk about the Indian variant, vaccines, models, masks and lockdowns. This is about as sceptical as you will get on the BBC.

Restaurants will be able to reopen for indoor service tomorrow, but only if lockdown hasn't already forced them to close for good. Data shows that there are now 9.7% fewer restaurants across Britain than in March 2020.

The U.K. has reached the milestone of fully vaccinating more than 20 million people, yet concern over the Indian variant continues to dominate the Government's – and the media's – Covid narrative.

Scientists from around the world have criticised the World Health Organisation's investigation into the origins of Covid, saying that the agency has not properly looked into the lab leak theory.

There's a horrifying story in the Sunday Times this morning that lays bare the terrible psychological damage wrought by the mind-benders of the SPI-B – 10% of Britons want lockdown restrictions to last forever!

Health Secretary Matt Hancock says there is a "high degree of confidence" that vaccines work against the Indian Covid variant, but that it can "spread like wildfire" among those who are unvaccinated.

A summary of all the most interesting stories that have appeared about the virus in the past 24 hours – not just in Britain, but around the world.