Day: 18 April 2021

SAGE Modelling From May Last Year Said Approach Recommended in Great Barrington Declaration Was Least Bad Alternative to Lockdown

by Glen Bishop In May last year, after the UK had been plunged into lockdown for the first time, the Warwick SAGE SPI-M team released a paper analysing the potential exit strategies and their projections for deaths under each scenario. Whether their projections were correct is debatable because of the vagueness of their assumptions, but more importantly the paper inadvertently highlights why lockdowns are farcical.    Below is the graph projecting the pandemic course under different scenarios of lifting lockdown last year. The graph is poorly labelled and hard to follow, so bear with this explanation. It models five scenarios of releasing lockdown, where restrictions are eased on the May 7th by varying degrees, from no release to full release at intervals of 25% i.e., 0%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 100%. With these levels of restrictions maintained until January 1st 2021, at which point, they are all released fully. The effect of this eventual release is shown in the ‘no controls’ side of the graph which is a continuation of the five same lines into 2021. As shown on the left-hand side representing 2020, the lines of 50%, 75% and 100% release of restrictions, projected an immediate resurgence in the virus with predictions of daily summer death tolls between 1000 and 4000 at their peaks. Clearly this did not happen ...

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