How deadly is COVID-19? Early last year renowned epidemiologist Professor John Ioannidis published an analysis of seroprevalence (antibody) studies from 2020 which concluded the infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 – the proportion of those infected who die – was around 0.15% globally. It varied significantly by region, up to 0.3%-0.4% in Europe and the Americas and down to 0.05% in Africa and Asia.
Prof. Ioannidis has now published an update, using additional seroprevalence studies, though still based on 2020 data, as “IFRs in 2021 may be further affected by wide implementation of vaccinations that may substantially decrease fatality risk and by other changes (new variants and better treatment)”. The new study has a special focus on the IFR in the elderly, but also includes estimates for all age groups, though not a new overall estimate.
From analysis of 25 seroprevalence surveys across 14 countries, Prof. Ioannidis and his colleague found the IFR varied from 0.0013% in the under-20s (around one in 100,000) to 0.65% in those in their 60s. For those above 70 not in a care home it was 2.9%, rising to 4.9% for all over-70s. This means that even for the elderly, more than 95% of those infected survive – 97.1% when considering those not in a care home. For younger people the mortality risk is orders of magnitude less, with 99.9987% of under-20s surviving a bout of the virus. These survival rates include people with underlying health conditions, so for the healthy the rates will be higher again (and the fatality rates lower).
The authors note that if you allow for antibody waning of 5% per month in the elderly then the IFR reduces to 2.4% for non-care home residents and 4% for all elderly. They add that IFR varies between countries, and this variation correlates with the proportion of the elderly who are over 85, suggesting much of the difference may be accounted for by the age of the population.
The authors conclude that the IFR of COVID-19 is substantially lower than in previously reported figures. The authors discuss several limitations of the study, including a consideration of doubts over the accuracy of deaths data from India.
The study’s findings confirm that Covid is a mild disease in all but a small minority of cases. With Omicron now reducing the severity several-fold further, even the proponents of lockdown should be able to accept that this virus is well below a level where restrictions are justifiable.
This article has been updated; an earlier version incorrectly stated that the new study was based on 2021 data.
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Why 16,000 Experts Believe Most Children Shouldn’t Be Jabbed
https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2022/01/10/censored-mrna-vaccine-inventor-tells-all.aspx?ui=1fb065e0c4152b58bd4ed94cf29c7cbfad40307fb723460ddabacd55f3c58b0c&sd=20210518&cid_source=dnl&cid_medium=email&cid_content=art1HL&cid=20220110&mid=DM1080791&rid=1374856168
Censored mRNA Platform Inventor Tells All on Rogan Show
Analysis by Dr. Joseph Mercola
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Jabbing children is manifest evil!
The government’s main propaganda apparatus, PA Media, has this headline in the Guardian (don’t click the link, after all, it’s the Guardian):
Then underneath is this disgusting disingenuous sub-headline:
There’s a world of evidence that these gene serums are causing very serious injuries, and killing quite a high number of people that take them.
And in those recipients in which the experimental gene serums don’t cause illness or death, UK data show their effectiveness to be plummeting across all age groups. But worse than this, in most recipients the gene serums are negative effective.
Negative effectiveness in those that have been given the gene-serum means they are getting infected with diseases at far higher rates than the unvaccinated. A vaccine effectiveness of minus 100 percent means the “vaccinated” are twice as likely to be infected as the “unvaccinated”. A similar condition to acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), where the body falls victim to even the most innocuous diseases.
It’s gone into the surreal at this stage. You can’t describe what’s going on as anything other than genocide and crimes against humanity.
A terrible reckoning has to come.
The ‘nudge’ to jab pregnant women was also evident this morning on the BBC Radio4 “Toady” program. A mild questioning by Nick of a professor, she was asked “how safe is the vax for expecting mothers” and the prof started wittering about how safe whooping cough vaxxes have been, and how wonderful they are. Totally ignoring this specific spikey jab, and the paucity of relevant hard facts. She answered a completely different question to the one asked. There was mention that certain communities are very reluctant, but the item didn’t fill me with any confidence.
strangely, I then watched German TV news ARD, and they had a very similar nudge news item this morning….
Similar on Talk Radio this morning , JHB pushing jabs for pregnant women . Must be some sort of coordinated propaganda exercise ,I thought it was maybe part of a campaign to counter Dr Mike Yeadon’s comments on GB News, with Neil Oliver on Saturday evening.
Brewer has lost credibility – very sad.
Why are intelligent people still listening to the ‘Today’ programme? It is beyond comprehension.
Are they looking for their lost childhood, when it used to reflect and serve the nation?
“Toady” is essential listening, occasionally! It’s like a benchmark – a reference low…..
I have 5 satellite dishes on the house, so I make sure to compare the beeb’s prop, with all the other prop.
italy is about to start database policing, cross referencing their tax database with their vax database, issuing automatic fines from 100€ (to the over-50 unvaxxed) to 1600€ for those un-super-vaccine-passported who go to work for a day.
database policing – crunching (bad/inaccurate) numbers and then issuing criminal penalties based on historic events is unbelievable disproportionate lawfare on humanity. I have to check Toady & the sycophants to see if the UK is going downhill too…
I remember it being reported not long ago that Cabinet ministers are all well informed because they listen to the Today programme …
BBC News service on red button goes FAR further than that – states jabs are safe and effective and ‘do not cause fertility issues’.
I almost spat out my cornflakes reading that. Cue much shouting at TV of “that is a lie – a total lie”. I wonder how many pregnant women will be influenced by reading that and them and their babies harmed by it?
Meanwhile I had a distressing conversation with one of my elderly parents today who is getting worried about dementia (I am already seeing some signs) and I would dearly love to persuade them to not get the booster jab.
If only I could get them to read and accept Ioannidis’ research finding that 97.!% of people won’t die from covid, but then, he isn’t the BBC, Chris Whitty or the UK government so what would he know?
So long as the disgraceful ‘Guardian’ ( sic) and the rest of the craven Gates funded media peddle disgusting, distorted lies with no conscience and no come-back we have a problem – totally boycotting the MSM news is a part solution.
It would be wonderful if it killed them off for good for all the good they do. The Telegraph and Mail are as bad.
Probably the most sensational finding concerning the three ‘vaccines’ used in the USA is that of Craig Paardekooper. Details here:
https://hillmd.substack.com/p/vaccine-batches-vary-in-toxicity
I really don’t know why Daily Sceptic are not running with this for all it’s worth.
Looks like my unmasked, unvaxxed plan is working, as it has done, since March 2020.
Goodness me? That Wuhuflu sure is damn dangerous! Not.
70+ group dying of old age with covid.
I’ve given the 20/21 pandemic considerable analysis & summarize. History’s greatest confidence trick, people have put too much trust in a tiny number of people who refer to themselves as the elite. What could go wrong?
Sadly I haven’t watched/listened to the BBC for about 18 months, so I look forward to reading reports of their in depth interview with John Ioannidis, shortly..
Surely this is a cause of celebration ,not sadness -after all you are missing nothing of importance, interest or truth.
97.1% survival for elderly seems too low.
Wasn’t there another graph on DS a few days ago that claimed 17.5% of such died?
Can’t trust the same people who caused this to give accurate figures.
Not at all. 5% chance of croacking for 70+? I don’t suppose when you’re over 70 your chances of making it to the end of the year are much better than 19/20 in most cases anyway.
The IFRs look to me like about exact same chances of dying at each age regardless.
Which is presumably why the average age of death from COVID is about identical to the average age of death in the population.
Flawed collection and analysis coupled with tainted funding sources to investigate loaded questions.
Well put!
Hey, I’m 70 next month, and whilst I’m quite prepared to die, I don’t expect a 5% chance of doing so in the next year.
Well, if you’re in good shape, maybe it’s better. We are talking averages. For every healthy fit 70 year old, there’s probably at least one with some cancer lurking and/or a lifetime of bad habits waiting to take its toll.
By all accounts, most of those that died of COVID even over the age of 70 were compromised in some way too. So if you’re healthy, your risk of dying of covid is probably also less than 5%.
That’s if you haven’t taken a covid jab. If you have, it could be higher…:-)
I suppose one has to read the whole paper to know whether the normal chance of dying has been taken into account.
It is 97.1% if you exclude the ones murdered with Midazolam in the care homes and hospital out of sight from relatives!!
Don’t forget that this study does not include much to do with Omicron, so these are not current IFRs.
Two points from this.
Firstly the IFRs reflect normal likely death rates by age groups for any reason, ie covid makes sod all difference to your risk of death at any age.
Secondly the Australian policy of killing its old folk in care homes is continuing, which explains the later article from Will.
There is now a mountain of evidence that existing restrictions, vaccination policies et al are worse than useless. Will it change anything? ‘Its not about what they say its about’. Afraid not.
Yes and no. For only disease deaths then yes, if you include other causes such as trauma or suicide then possibly no.
“covid makes sod all difference to your risk of death at any age.”
This is a crucial fact that seems to get missed by too many ‘sceptics’ when considering the snake oil for old farts.
It would be interesting to see what the IFR is for Japan as they have a significant number of people in the 70+ population than here in the U.K..
Japan does have an aged population, quite fit people, smaller meal portions than UK – but perhaps most importantly, it’s a very great attention to detail society. e.g. Hospitals work, they have little to no nosocomial transmission. Things are done correctly & cleanly.
There has been a surge in Omnipresent variant this week, especially around the US bases. Japan is trying to get the US .mil masked & locked-up
”Prime Minister Kishida Fumio says the Japanese and US governments have agreed to restrict outings by US military personnel in Japan.
The Japanese government had been urging tougher measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus to ease local residents’ concerns about the surge in infections at US installations in Japan.
Kishida said on an NHK program on Sunday that he is deeply concerned about the spread of the virus in and around US military facilities.
He said the United States had agreed in principle to restrict non-essential outings by its military personnel….”
Haven’t they also used Ivermectin as an early treatment quite a lot?
There is some more common sense in Japan, but they are buying into the Holy Terror scenario, and the quarantine conditions are rigorous.
They also allow ivermectin use and have made warning of the dangers of the potentially deadly side-effects ( especially myocarditis) from the injections printed on the labels.
The Japanese, unlike others, are still concerned about the health and welfare of their population.
I am seeing estimates for corona-vaccine-induced deaths ranging from 2 in 10,000 (0.02%) to potentially as high as 8 in 10,000 (0.08%). But these may be higher with the ‘boosters’.
Granted that simple numbers like this conceal the exponentially higher risk from multiple injections and the possible age distortions (younger hit relatively harder?). But let’s keep it simple with the ‘vanilla’ numbers.
We can compare the 0.02%-0.08% range of vaccine-deaths to the Ioannidis findings, see where they match up, thereby doing our own basic risk-benefit of the vaccine and get an age cutoff at which no one in normal health below that age should get the vaccine.
The age cutoff from these two datasets is somewhere between 35 and 55. But if we exclude the already seriously unhealthy among these groups (presumably at greater risk of Covid-flu death), those ages could probably be +10years each. So while there is uncertainty, it does seem all healthy persons under age 50 are better off without the injections, potentially as high as 65.
I estimate the cut-off for vaccine net benefit is about 65.
If already unhealthy; 75+ if now in good health.
It seems calculations need to be nuanced to reflect that 99.5% batches (focusing on Pfizer, Moderna and Janssen) are relatively harmless, but 1 in 200 are seriously toxic, not to say deadly. In the light of Craig Paardekooper’s analysis, it seems impossible to avoid the conclusion that these rogue batches were deliberately dispersed among the others. The Corona Investigation Committe of Reiner Fuellmich and Wolfgang Wodarg agree. Details here:
https://hillmd.substack.com/p/vaccine-batches-vary-in-toxicity
Yes. I posted about this last week RF and WW suggest that it is evidence of prior knowledge and premeditation rather than an accident.
further reinforces my decision not to play russian roulette with my health. Knowing my luck I’d be the one getting the 1 in 200
No. An artefact. Too much confusion with rising mortality with age.
Reasonable calculations, but you also need to factor in the non-lethal effects of the shots for many, such as Bell’s Palsy etc. That pushes the risk gradient much more to the elderly.
So what about ADE, Auto Immune Disease and the long tern possibility of immune deficiency increasing by shot over time – in other words AIDS?
Shall we factor those in as well?
The real IFR rate for healthy people – ie, people not hovering close to death with multiple comorbidities – is zero percent. The miniscule IFR rates shown by Prof. Ioannidis simply take into statistical account those poor souls who would have died in the near future anyway.
To put this into context, it means Western governments are issuing Emergency Use Authorisation “vaccines” when no emergency actually exists. Worse, the governments are fully aware the “vaccines” are massively more dangerous than any other vaccine issued (with full approval) to counter a genuinely life changing disease such as small-pox.
Crime of the century doesn’t even begin to describe what is happening. If the death penalty was re-introduced to deal with the global criminals perpetuating this crime against humanity, I would back it to the hilt.
Say no more!
Those figures should be tattooed on the inside of the eyelid’s of the tripple vaxxed before they submit to jab 4/5/6/7…But alas, i believe they are all irredeemably corrupted by their idiocy.
“Prof. Ioannidis has now published an update, using 2021 seroprevalence studies to find a more recent IFR for the conditions prevailing in the second year of the pandemic“
Not sure if I’ve missed something, but the study referenced actually relates to 2020, specifically to avoid complications from widespread “vaccination”:
“We focused on studies sampling participants in 2020, since IFRs in 2021 may be further affected by wide implementation of vaccinations that may substantially decrease fatality risk and by other changes (new variants and better treatment).“
As such, these numbers are likely massive overstatements of the current overall risks.
Thanks Mark – yes you are correct. I had misunderstood the statement I quoted from the discussion in the paper. I have now corrected the post.
Good job DS doesn’t operate like our government, or big tech. You’d just have censored my post, banned me and carried on….
It is now blindingly obvious that there is no medical justification whatever for the mass vaccination programme and the punitive measures used to try and impose it against the Nuremberg Convention.
A huge scam has been perpetrated on world for purposes that look darker by the day.
Their experimental Gene Therapies do not even protect people from their manufactured ‘ virus’ – in fact the evidence suggests they might even be helping to spread it thorough ‘shedding’ in bodily fluids of the pathogenic spike proteins!
Their cynical ban on successful ivermectin use alone surely gives their whole game away?
Why are so many people still asleep?
Because they simply can’t contemplate that MSM and the authorities are full of BS and are lying to them and engaged in covering up what they must now realise to have been some serious failures.
We can argue that the politicians have some nefarious goal in mind, I don’t believe all the medical experts do. But, most of the medical experts are of the ‘following orders’ view. The Outbreak Mngt. Team says vaccination is the way out, face rags (now they are advising surgical face rags instead of cloth, even though from March 2020 to December 2020 NL had no face rag mandate and we were doing better) – GPs, teachers, office managers – they assume the OMT knows what it’s talking about, so do as told. The OMT’s views on the vaxx are based on the fact that the Dutch Health Council okayed it. The Health Council okayed it, because the EMA okayed it. The EMA okayed it because the FDA okayed it. The FDA okayed it because the FDA is owned by the pharmaceutical companies and they okayed it because it works fabulously at what they want it to work for – big, big, megabucks.
Everyone is this line of authority is pointing to someone else above them as giving the go-ahead. One doctor, head of the ICU association, was on the OMT and is stepping down in February. He has been vocal for some months now that the OMT does not listen to dissenting voices, that it is not open enough, and recently said that vaxxing will not be the answer. And of course they are now trying to sideline and ridicule him. Easier to go with the flow for most people.
You can’t get through to people that it isn’t necessary for all these people to “be in on it”, but merely to just go along with it is enough for it to continue. They believe you must be a nut-jub conspiracy theorist. When I point out to them that the information I get comes from official government websites and numbers, but that I draw my own conclusions (i.e. when a chart shows a negative vaccine effectiveness, that this is indeed negative and not zero as the prof. tried to make out), they never know what to say. You can see it makes them uncomfortable and they just shy away and change the topic. None so blind…
The tide will turn and I believe that when it does, it will do so just as swiftly as it did toward insanity, it just requires a certain momentum.
Where we know for a fact the authorities are doing everything they can to ascribe cause of death to positive PCR tests etc and using all manner of illegal criminal fraudulent tactics to bump up the numbers.
Here is a good analysis of the criminal tactics used by HMG during this organised crime spree:
COVID 19 Is A Statistical Nonsense
https://in-this-together.com/covid-19-is-a-statistical-nonsense/
Worth bearing in mind that the ones who die include the already very ill or grossly overweight and unfit, so for normal folk these are massive overestimates of the risk. These are figures from 2020 studies, so pre-“vaccine”. And no, just carrying a few extra pounds at the moment doesn’t make anyone “high risk” – you need to look like Stephen Nolan or Andrew Neil for that.
I like to put risk into dice roll terms, for ease of understanding, so here it is in terms of how many dice you’d have to roll all sixes on, to get the same chance as your risk of dying from covid.
For an under-20, the risk is 0.0013%. They’d have to roll six d6’s and have them all come up 6, to get close to this level of risk.
For those in their twenties, it’s 0.0088%. They’d have to roll five d6’s and have them all come up 6 to achieve approx that chance of dying.
For those in their 30s, it’s 0.021%, so they’d get between four and five d6’s. Let’s overstate the risk and call it four sixes at once.
For those of us in our fifties, it’s 0.14%, so that’s between three and four dice.
The risks climb as you get into your seventies, and at the risk level given for all over 70s, they’d get one d6, and if they got a 6 they’d have to roll again and be “saved” if they rolled higher than 2. But the reality is that nobody lives forever and the older you get the more likely you are to die, anyway. If you haven’t philosophically and in practical life terms prepared yourself for that event by the time you are 70, imo you’ve done things wrong.
And it’s for these levels of risk that we’ve made the entire world so utterly shit for the past couple of years, incurred costs that will make us significantly poorer for decades to come, and lost freedoms that we will likely never regain.
Well done, panickers.
I’ve already rolled my dice and didn’t get the three sixes (surprise surprise), but if I could have a chance to roll again and risk death, in exchange for preventing the world panicking into insanity in March 2020, I’d take it like a shot. Hell, I’d go for it on one d6!
The increase in mortality for the older and more vulnerable should not be overstated – older people are more likely to die, whatever the agent.
Yes! This needs to be shown against how many non with-covid deaths occur each year in the same age-groups.
Given that you have a 1% chance of dying in a traffic accident (2020, ONS), it is more dangerous to drive to the vaccination station than it is to walk about unvaccinated.
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/itv-warned-to-take-greater-care-after-broadcasting-inaccurate-vaccine-data-41226115.html
“ITV warned to take ‘greater care’ after broadcasting inaccurate vaccine data”
Ivermectin help reduce the severity of vaccine adverse reactions. If someone is suffering from a post vaccine syndrome, FLCCC clinicians and a growing network of colleagues have reported significant clinical responses to ivermectin. Because Ivermectin has 5 different mechanisms of action against coronaviruses, the medication is also effective with the different variants of the virus. Get your Ivermectin while you still can! https://ivmpharmacy.com
This table is lifted directly from page 40 of the latest HSA vaccine surveillance report. It shows negative efficacy for each age cohort except the under 18 (the most recently vaxxed). The vaxxed in their 40s are 151% more likely to catch the thing than the unvaxxed.
I probably have a greater appetite for risk than many others, being as it is that I choose to live in the third world, am a life-long serial entrepreneur who enjoys adventurous activities, exotic travel, violent sports, oceans of booze, mountains of drugs, piles of foie gras and as much unprotected sex as women who make similarly poor decisions will acquiesce, but with the Rt. Hon. Sir Ioannidis citing yet again a 0.042% IFR for my cohort, surely even the god-fearing salaryman of drizzly Mornington Crescent can finally cast off the
chainsmasks of Covid hysteria?Perchance to dream.
Lockdown can never be justified as it just doesn’t work and has never been a part of the pandemic preparedness guidelines either in the UK, by WHO or by any other country. https://brownstone.org/articles/more-than-400-studies-on-the-failure-of-compulsory-covid-interventions/