Omicron bites hard in the UKHSA Vaccine Surveillance report this week, as unadjusted vaccine effectiveness against infection (calculated from the raw data) plummets across all age groups in the month ending January 2nd 2022. The revival in some age groups from the third doses has now been almost completely cancelled out, as all age groups above 18 years go negative again. Those in their 40s hit a new low of minus-151% (negative vaccine effectiveness means the vaccinated are more likely to be infected than the unvaccinated; a vaccine effectiveness of minus-100% means the vaccinated are twice as likely to be infected as the unvaccinated). There is a sharp drop for under-18s for the first time as well, with unadjusted vaccine effectiveness more than halving in a fortnight, collapsing from 79% to 38% (there was no report last week due to the Christmas holiday).
To underline the pointlessness of vaccine passports and mandates for preventing spread, I have plotted in the chart below the proportions of infections in the unvaccinated and vaccinated for the month ending January 2nd (in this chart ‘vaccinated’ includes all who have received at least one dose; in the other charts in this post ‘vaccinated’ means at least 14 days after a second dose). It shows that 72% or nearly three quarters of infections in that four-week period were in the vaccinated (65% in the double or triple vaccinated) and only 22% in the unvaccinated. That is certainly not an epidemic of the unvaccinated; almost the opposite, in fact.
Omicron has also had an impact on unadjusted vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation, with sharp declines occurring particularly in the younger age groups with lower booster coverage. The decline in 18-29 year-olds is particularly steep, dropping to just 50%, meaning double vaccination is only halving the risk of hospitalisation (though keep in mind this is unadjusted vaccine effectiveness based on raw data, not taking into account any potential confounders in either direction).
Unadjusted vaccine effectiveness against death remains high, above 80% for all ages, though there is sign of a slight decline.
Discussion
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Does vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation and death have any meaning with OmiCON? The fact is that hardly anyone is being hospitalised or dying from it, vaccinated or not!!
In fact, even an “efficacy rate” of 70-80% implies a failure rate of 20-30% which must account for all of the small numbers of OmiCON hospitalisations and deaths?
Reuters reporting Japan is at 1% of its COVID peak cases and falling. India is at 3% of its peak and falling. What did these countries do? Ditch vaccine mandates for ivermectin. Since April 28, India medical officials started providing hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin to its massive population. As India is the major pharmaceutical manufacturer in the world, they were ready for this massive drug distribution. MIRACULOUSLY!, COVID cases have plummeted quickly since then. Meanwhile, all “first world” countries in Europe are reporting a rise in cases. Get your ivermectin before it is too late! https://ivmpharmacy.com
Forcing a useless, dangerous vaccine – now in free fall -on Care Workers and Medical Staff and threatening the non- jabbed thus creating a staffing crisis in Health and Social Care – that’s a sure vote winner Johnson!
Any more ‘awards’ and Gongs for your Marxist Globalist Castro supporting friends on Sage who thought this nightmare up for you?
If only we had a Free uncensored Media you would be mincemeat!
Don’t worry everybody, Imperial College are developing self-amplifying vaccines that will *continually* churn out spike proteins, meaning booster shots won’t be necessary. I for one can’t wait! I hope the Gov keeps stringing me along until at least 2023 in anticipation of this, because I need to be distracted with threats and retreats for another year in order to be on board.
Didn’t Geert Vanden Bossche give the malevolant political/pharma/junk science establishment a head’s up on this very subject!….But they have a plan folk’s that doesn’t include facilitating your continued existence on Planet Earth, the very opposite infact.
Can someone double check these for me please (plotted from absolute numbers, not relative rates)? That death graph looks unnaturally symmetrical and, if I’ve plotted it correctly, there’s no way that could be happen without some oddness going on. Another interesting one is the risk of death following hospitalisation – no significant difference in any age group other than the 80+
Note: All ‘unlinked’ were assumed to be vaccinated. This might add an insignificant error to the data.
Will Jones is still agreeing with government propaganda when he states ……
“Unadjusted vaccine effectiveness against death remains high”.
As the government doesn’t know how many unjabbed people there are and why they are unjabbed (possibly for ill health reasons) it is disappointing that Will Jones and The Daily Sceptic are not being more “sceptical”.
In the ONS release of 20th December, the age group 10-59 (yes, very wide!) covid death rate in the jab free is currently 2 times the rate in the jabbed. Wow! The jab is working!
BUT, in all-cause mortality, the jabbed are dying at 2.4 times the rate! Moreover, when one considers the non-covid mortality, the jabbed are dying at 3.3 times the rate!
In order to show the jab’s effectiveness against an arbitrarily-defined ‘covid’ death, the corresponding increase in non-covid death rate needs to be explained.
Furthermore, because non-covid deaths are much more than covid deaths, there is a net loss of life due to these confounded jabs.
Bloody hell.
To be fair he’s just doing an unbiased analysis of the data set provided by UKHSA. It doesn’t necessarily equate to him agreeing that the data set itself is an accurate representation.
And here’s another chart of positive test rates by age band over time split between vaccinated and unvaccinated, which I think shows quite dramatically what has happened in the past few weeks.
All the dotted lines are positive test rates over time for the unvaccinated in each age group
And all the solid lines are positive test rates per 100,00 for the vaccinated (one or more dose) in each age group
And I’ve used the same colour for the vaccinated and unvaccinated in each age group.
The chart speaks for itself…
Good chart. What data did you use (ie what source)?
Sources are shown on the charts themselves. Doh!
(Agree – very good compilation.)
Used the vaccine surveillance reports for the positive test numbers
The population numbers (in particular the single jabbed population numbers) are from the national flu and covid surveillance spreadsheets
You can work back from the rates per 100,000 and number of cases in the vaccine surveillance reports to get the numbers in each age category unvaccinated or double vaccinated. But you need the figures from the above spreadsheets (from sheet ‘fig 61 COVID vac uptake’ but each week uses a different spreadsheet) to get the single jabbed numbers so that you can work out an overall vaccinated (any dose) rate. That the doubled vaxed and uvaxed numbers agree between the spreadsheets and the VSR, tells you you’ve picked up the right week in the right week’s spreadsheet and then you can then use the single jabbed numbers
In case you are interested in reproducing this, the population numbers used by UKHSA in each VSR relate to the flu and covid surveillance spreadsheets as set out in the attached. The ‘up to week 50’ spreadsheet (for example) refers to the spreadsheet called week 51 that goes up to week 50.
My God. 22 months of this cr*p! I am so sick of it all and just wish it would all go away! We were right all along and we knew we would be – but what does it matter anymore? We are free, the rest are willing slaves. Stay strong, be free!
Well – free as you can be without a vaccine passport, so not so free after all. Only saying.
Travelled everywhere, all over Europe, throughout all this time, not stopped. Never had anyone in authority ask for any “vaccine passport”. Border guards simply couldn’t give a sh*t.
I have said it before, and I’ll say it again – the queues for the sheep with their silly “app” will be twenty times longer than the queues for the people who haven’t bothered with any of this dangerous, inhumane nonsense.
Having listened to the recent Joe Rogan interviews with eminent Doctors who have now been “CANCELLED”, I think the UK population need to hear from our own Chief Medical Officer, so I started the petition below in an attempt to foster support for the idea. Our main medical profession doesn’t seem to want to have a discussion in open forum, I wonder why!
Please sign this petition.
“Sir Chris Whitty UK CMO must be interviewed on The Joe Rogan Experience.”
https://chng.it/NZVpWgD4s7
A 3 hour in depth interview with the UK Chief Medical Officer would assist general understanding of the logic used by the UK government advisors around Covid.
Seek opinion on Imperial College data modelling and The Great Barrington Declaration.
Seek clarity on mask and vaccination health benefits and risks.
Seek clarity on why the UK population isn’t treated early for Covid with existing fully tested drugs.
Seek clarity on proportions of population in hospital and ICU.
Even better would be a debate between Whitty and, say Peter McCullough or Robert Malone.
Don’t think Whitty could last that long against JR
Thanks Will. You beat me to the latest surveillance update. However, I do present the data a little differently that may be more catchy to the eye.
Yes, and this is massively overlooked (deliberately I’m sure). It is infections that drive a pandemic. It is of no use to man nor dog if there’s a vaccine that is very efficient at preventing hospitalisation and death (which these vaccines certainly are not), if that same vaccine is driving the infections that may result in the hospitalisation and death. Any vaccine that does that will prolong a pandemic and likely cause more fatalities long-term (that’s without considering side effects). As we’re now into year 3 of this pandemic, I would say the proof is clearly in the pudding.
The main point, however, is the flippin’ tests. They mean nothing! If people stopped taking tests, there would be no reason for any of the government’s counter-productive measures. For it is their measures that have brought about death, illness and misery to the population.
Agreed.
Exactly. If it weren’t for the vaccinated spreading their germs right, left and centre, nobody would need protection against hospitalization and death in the first place. The whole thing would likely have ended when it should have done, last January. Instead of that we’re lumbered with the vaccinated continuing to boost infection numbers season-by-season ad infinitum.
Austria.. 3rd Jab.. Booster..
Who’d have thought it eh.. you’ve got to keep getting them, no matter what!
https://freewestmedia.com/2022/01/06/austrian-government-demotes-some-38-million-double-jabbed-to-unvaccinated/
Couldn’t have predicted that eh?
No.. came as a great surprise to me, I must say..
and people won’t think that will happen to them here!
“Even the obedient have become second class people, excluded from social life thanks to the country’s “lockdown for the unvaccinated”. Austrians living in this fact-free dystopian nightmare, are currently faced with two options: Force the government out or take the third, fourth, fifth, sixth and perhaps eternal shot.”
Farage did a big segment on “the unvaccinated” at the top of his show last night. He is very concerned about the way they are being demonised in the UK. He has a new email address ([email protected]) and appealed to people to email him with their thoughts and experiences on the subject.
You know you are in deep trouble when Farage is singling you out for defence. On the other hand look what he did for Brexit…
You mean 3.9 million Austrians lose their internal passports?
Love the little propaganda gems like this in the report (page 40): “Unadjusted case rates among persons vaccinated have been formatted in grey to further emphasise the caution to be employed when interpreting this data”. In other words believe the data unless the data doesn’t look how we want it to look, and in that case ignore it.
This one’s another beauty (same page): “people who have never been vaccinated are more likely to have caught COVID-19 in the weeks or months before the period of the cases covered in the report. This gives them some natural immunity to the virus for a few months which may have contributed to a lower case rate in the past few weeks”. So natural immunity only provides 2/3 months worth of protection according to the authors. No citations, no explanation, nothing. This goes against over 100 studies that have been done showing that statement to be complete bollocks.
I’ve already emailed these idiots demanding corrections, but it would be good if others did the same.
US court ruled last night that the FDA must release all Pfizer documents this year, not in 75 years. Might be fun.
100% Safe and Effective
As it is now abundantly clear that vaccines don’t work but make it more likely that infections are contracted and passed on, and that people continue to be pressured into being spiked, what is the best way to protect yourself from further potential injury from the spike producing, microclot-inducing mRNA LNAs?
Genuinely need to know, surely someone has worked it out by now.
Um, don’t take the stabs???
Sadly not an option, should be that recovered infection has higher status than jabs as we all know but the world has gone mad.
After the Colston verdict might we hope that anyone taking the law into their own hands against the CMOs and MHRA leadership would also be acquitted?
I was thinking about this last night. The Colston trial was a jury trial, so, according to the way the defence team framed their defence and their closing argument they swayed them with the emotion and the injustice of the Colston statue, and portrayed these 4 defendants as carrying out some kind of vigilante justice to right a wrong which the state should have righted a long time ago, as opposed to 4 people carrying out criminal damage. The jury obvs bought that argument and acquitted them.
People taking the law into their own hands regarding any aspect of the covid narrative would not be guaranteed the same easy ride from a jury (provided of course the offence they commit is triable by a jury trial) depending on its make up. If the jury is made up of a majority of people who are jabbed and think that jabs are great, everyone should have one to save the NHS, the govt has done a brilliant job re covid, have had relatives who died in first wave etc and believe that the jabs have “saved” the UK then they are unlikely to find in favour of a defendant coming before them… Read more »
Only if they are ex slave owners
My original concern was that the pharmas demanded and got full indemnity.
My second concern was that the shots were okayed under ‘temporary authority’ yet still touted as ‘safe’.
My third concern was that Bunter, having narrowly escaped death and, presumably, thus pretty much immunised against Wu-flu, was happy to be double-jabbed (and now, one imagines, triple-jabbed).
All concerns following those three have followed from the shamelessly duff ‘follow the science’ routines, including ignoring the JCVI decision that kids should not be routinely injected.
My main concern remains the bovine acceptance, exhibited by most of those I know personally, to continue to believe the illogical balls they’re being fed.
I can only hope that they don’t come to suffer buyer’s remorse at some time in the unknowable future.
If people do start dying in droves from immune-system damage, will Whitty and Van-Tam have to hand back their deflectionary gongs?
No. They’ll just say the same thing the general public will – that without the vaccines everyone would have died of Covid anyway.
The last remaining argument in favour of the vaccines is that they reduce hospitalisations and deaths. So let’s look at Table 11 (p. 37), “COVID-19 cases presenting to emergency care (within 28 days of a positive specimen) resulting in an overnight inpatient admission by vaccination status between week 49 and week 52 2021”.
Notice that we are not told if these are people in hospital “with Covid” or “because of Covid”. We only know that they had a positive test in the prior 28 days.
If you add up the unvaccinated column for all ages, we have a total of 4,056 unvaccinated people hospitalised for one or more nights in that four week period.
Now, estimates of the number of hospitals in the UK vary depending on where you look, but according to statista.com, “In 2019, there were an estimated 1,978 hospitals in the United Kingdom”. So for a four week period, we had 4,056 unvaccinated admissions across 1,978 hospitals.
That’s 2 admissions per hospital over a four week period, who were unvaccinated but also happened to test positive for Covid at some point, and we have no idea why they went to hospital.
Can someone please tell me how… Read more »
It was very deceitful, but explained here – https://rumble.com/vrowe1-critical-care-not-full-of-unvaccinated.html Basically they managed to find one specialist ICU type that projected those figures and then repeated a message publicly that was a massive manipulation of the truth. These people really are the absolute scum of the earth.
ThinkingSlow is an excellent source for statistical analysis btw:
https://rumble.com/c/c-946493
https://twitter.com/ThinkingSlow1
Thanks for the link to ThinkingSlow, excellent analysis that clearly exposes the government’s bare-faced lies.
Is it just me, I find that 2nd graph very sexy, nearly as much as this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sHZEX1p80o (not for the easily aroused)
Yep: it’s just you.
If you don’t find the way that rises, curves gracefully towards its target & explodes in a blaze of glory there’s something wrong with you. I find it extraordinarily satisfying to watch, just the mechanics of it gets me aroused, it’s almost perfect in the way it performs & it’s so masculine & erotic.
And in relation to Canadian real world data….
https://twitter.com/gerdosi/status/1478328180704428033
2 doses of mRNA do not provide protection against Omicron infection even if freshly administered. Zero. Then there’s clear negative effectiveness from around 3 months post 2nd dose. The utter fallacy of ongoing coercion of the ‘unvaccinated’.
The unvaxxed represent a mute reproach to the charlatans who told us vaxxes were a cure-all way out of a misnamed pandemic.
That there are still unvaxxed is a threat to their ability to influence and coerce.
Not sure what’s being boosted at the moment. Boost your chances of catching covid. Boost your chances of a dystopian future. Boost pharma’s profits. Boost Boza’s ego.
The vaccines aren’t working, you’ll need a booster every month.
Vaccine “effectiveness” for those in their 40s is NEGATIVE 151 percent?
This should be front-page news around the world.
When the vaccinated are more than two times likely to become infected than the unvaccinated … and EVERY leader in authority and “expert” in the world is pushing mandatory vaccines and vaccine passports, we have reached rock bottom as an intelligent society.
The vaccinated are more likely to be mixing and “letting their guard down”. Yeah, that’s why it’s -150%
At least that’s how they’ll spin it.
Except they won’t as people who haven’t subjected themselves to the experiment are usually those who aren’t caught up in the hysteria.
That’s what I love about this spin, as far as I can gather the people who don’t believe in all the lies and are desperately trying to live their lives as normally as possible. No masks no, social distancing, no following restrictions as best as possible, no vaccine. We know it’s all horse shit. And yet we’re the ones who are supposed to be cowering behind the sofa.
To be honest – almost all the people I know, and those I work with, are double and triple jabbed but they’re the ones who are masking up, using hand sanitizer and social distancing. They also test themselves every 5 minutes. I just walk round the supermarket where ‘ve worked maskless throughout not sure whether to laugh at them or feel sorry for them. It’s pathetic.
You’re so right, Mike, it’s truly pathetic. Out of the 32 members of our choir, the majority of whom are vaccinated, only 8 are prepared to carry on with rehearsals. Of these 8, 6 said they would attend as long as everyone took lateral flow tests. I despair. If things ever get back to how they used to be I will never see these people in the same light.
It’s been a real eye opener , regrettably I can’t help despising all the mask wearing , jabbed up to the neck , jumping into the road zombies.
If we compare unvaccinated vs vaccinated (at least one dose) in these latest figures for England (which cover weeks 49-52 of 2021), we now have a position of negative efficacy of the experimental vaccine against testing positive in every age group including the under 18s.
Just under half a million of the under 18 age group have had 2 doses (4%) and about 1.7 million (14%) have had 1 dose according to UKHSA. About 10.4 million (82%) of the under 18s are unvaccinated.
So the vaccinated under 18s are mainly single jabbed rather than double jabbed (14% vs 4%) and so any comparison really must take these single jabbed into account. See the attached chart that does this.
At least double the rate of positives per 100,000 in the vaccinated vs the unvaccinated (any dose) in the 18–59 age ranges.
(I’ve interpolated positives for week 52 for which there was no publication between the week 51 2021 and week 1 2022 figures in plotting that week)
And not looking good for the experimental vaccines in relation to the trend in emergency care admission positives either, using the same comparison unvaccinated vs vaccinated (at least one dose).
58.8% of these positive test emergency care admissions are in the vaccinated (any dose) for week 1 of 2022 (which covers weeks 49-52 of 2021), an increase from 54.3% in week 51 of 2021 (which covers weeks 47-50 of 2021).
And you can see from the attached chart that the increase in absolute number of positive test emergency care admissions (the height of the yellow and red bars) is mainly fueled by the increase in vaccinated emergency care admissions.
Of course a good chunk of these emergency care admissions (vaccinated or unvaccinated) will be incidental positives, even more so because of the mildness of omnicron. And really we should be comparing all cause hospitalisations between the two groups but we don’t have the data.
28.2% of covid labelled deaths (within 28 days of a positive test) are in the unvaccinated for week 1 of 2022 (which covers weeks 49-52 of 2021) a slight increase from week 51 of 2021.
But note how the absolute number of unvaccinated positive test deaths… Read more »
I’m amazed each time I read here at DS when these figures are trotted out that they are said to ‘undermine the pointlessness of vaccine passports’. As if that is the point of vaccine passports. It never was the point. Why do you continue to act all dewy-eyed and innocent, as if somehow you are landing a blow with this kind of statement?
If my point here is not clear, consider the implications if vaccine so-called effectiveness was not dropping into negative territory. Would then the writers at DS proclaim that this proves that vaccine passports are a good thing? I couldn’t care less if these were the most perfect wonderful vaccines ever invented, perfectly safe and perfectly effective, it would still not make the slightest difference to the argument against vaccine passports. They are not dependent on whether this or that vaccine happens to be effective. They are a spectacularly bad idea regardless.
Don’t get me wrong, I love this site, visit way too many times each day, enjoy the opportunity to post my hilarious jokes and penetrating insights, but I do wish the scales would fall from you guys eyes. I also love the Team James versus… Read more »
DS posts are controlled opposition. The comments are the only free-will part of the site.
I think it’s perhaps more a case of what arguments work best with the unawake isn’t it? If you go out and talk to covidians about passports simply being the route to digital ID and social credit systems like China, most of them will either laugh at you or switch off. If you can point out that there’s no point banning the unvaxxed because as every fule doth know now (or should know), being vaxxed does not stop you getting it, people might be more likely to listen to you.
Yes.. you’re right. Its easy preaching to the converted, to the brainwashed you need a far gentler approach to get your foot in the door. Being too strident will get it slammed in your face..
Part of the problem is asking people to admit they were gullible fools for getting jabbed in the first place and effectively voting for their own totalitarian future.
What future?
Weirdly most people do seem to know cognitively that the vaccine doesn’t stop you getting Covid but then in the very next breath they’ll talk as if it does …. the cognitive dissonance is sometimes quite startling. But yes, start off at the thin end of the wedge and work from there …. save talk of ADE for later on!
Why bother arguing any longer ? They have made their bed… but why must we all lie in it?
More of the tragic truth is seeping through every day that passes – the damn surely must burst.
Good point. Anyway, we know vaccine passports are basically designed to annoy and harass the unvaccinated. Macron basically spilled the beans on that.
Yes – “half-awake” is nearer “asleep” than Awake!
Get BOOSTED again!!!!!
The data from Public Health Scotland seems to show negative effectiveness for death (page 48) Can anyone help to analyse this, worried i might be reading the data wrongly i wonder what could explain this compared to UKSA data
https://publichealthscotland.scot/media/10930/21-12-22-covid19-winter_publication_report.pdf
From a very quick glance:
A lot of the oldest people who had 2 doses went on to have the booster.
But within the relatively small group of people who didn’t have the booster would have been an increasingly disproportionate number of people who were too ill to get the booster, and became ‘stranded’ in the two dose group. And so you’d expect disproportionately many more deaths in the two dose group than the three dose group.
Hence the exactly 2 dose covid labelled age standardised mortality rate (ASM) of 9.31 is higher than the unvaccinated rate of 5.51.
But the 3 dose covid labelled ASM rate of 0.26 is less than the unvaccinated ASM rate of 5.51.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-deaths-per-million-covid?tab=chart&country=GBR~SWE~CHE~DEU~AUT~FIN~NOR
germany storms ahead of sweden in excess mortality
“Befehl ist befehl” for Germans – resistance is ‘un -German”.
I’m not seeing much vaccine effect in the first graph here
https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
looks like this winter is a repeat of last but with a) almost everyone vaccinated b) a new variant that is milder
The vaccine is working its “effect”……. on the immune system.
these are not vaccines in any sense I know – if anything, Omicron is ‘effective’ against hospitalisatons and death because it is a natural end point of a virus (very weak and highly contagious). These jabs are effective at stitching up the tissue of lies – and killing / injuring people for good measure. For serious deep dive go to The Last American Vagabond. https://www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/
I agree entirely with this post..
Can someone please summarise these findings into a single sentence with not too many difficult words for use with people scratching their heads while reading over complicated versions of it in their newspaper.
Boosters are useless.
Maybe even worse than useless, at least in terms of spreading the Big OM.