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Assembling Covid Jigsaw Pieces Into a Complete Pandemic Picture

by Toby Young
10 August 2021 11:34 AM

We’re publishing an important piece today by Anthony Brookes, a Professor of Genomics and Health Data Science at the University of Leicester, in which he explains why the SARS-CoV-2 virus spreads across different populations in waves separated by three or four months. His theory is similar to that put forward by Dr Will Jones, namely, that the overall immunity levels in most populations are quite high, but need to be ‘topped up’ each time a new variant appears, causing infections to rise and then fall. Importantly, the decline in infections has little or nothing to do with non-pharmaceutical interventions – which is why daily cases started to decline before the second and third lockdowns were imposed in the U.K. and why the easing of restrictions on July 19th hasn’t caused an ‘exit wave’ – or the vaccine roll-out, since vaccines don’t appear to have much impact on infection or transmission.

Here is the abstract of Prof Brookes’s article:

  • A series of SARS-CoV-2 variants have arisen, many of which possessed a transient selective advantage that led to a wave of infection that peaked some three-to-four months later. Several such variants have spread globally, though different successful variants have arisen simultaneously in a number of countries. The result is a three-to-four month wave pattern per country, which is also apparent globally.
  • Seasonality affects variant transmissibility. Colder seasons accelerate the growth and increase the size of waves, but the continually changing environment may also differentially affect the relative transmissibility of competing variants (i.e., negatively as well as positively), thereby helping to terminate previously dominant variants and promote the growth of new ones.
  • Overall there is a minimal positive impact from quarantine policy, isolation requirements, Test and Trace regimes, social distancing, masking or other non-pharmaceutical interventions. Initially, these were the only tools in the tool-box of interventionist politicians and scientists. At best they slightly delayed the inevitable, but they also caused considerable collateral harms.
  • Immunity created by SARS-CoV-2 infection, layered on top of pre-existing immunity due to cross-immunity to other coronaviruses, provides good protection against infection, severe disease/death, and being infectious. Immunity created by vaccination also helps protect against serious disease and death, but does little or nothing to provide protection against infection or being infectious (which completely negates the case for vaccine ID cards).
  • Population immunity stems mainly from natural infections, with vaccines adding only slightly to this (and only in recent months). Population immunity is created by societal waves of infection and is somewhat variant-specific. An emerging new variant is able to infect (or re-infect) some fraction of individuals and this serves to top up and broaden the scope of our population immunity to also protect against the new variant.
  • This empirical and data-driven understanding of the pandemic allows us to make predictions. Such predictions don’t look good for some of the U.K.’s new Green List countries. But in these and all other places the ongoing arms-race between viral mutations and growing human immunity will always eventually be won by the human immune system. The virus then becomes a low-level endemic pathogen in equilibrium with its human host species. If this were not the case all humans would have been wiped out by viruses eons ago!

Worth reading in full.

Tags: Infection WavesPopulation ImmunityVariants

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57 Comments
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amanuensis
amanuensis
3 years ago

Bingo!

21
-4
Lockdown Sceptic
Lockdown Sceptic
3 years ago
Reply to  amanuensis

climate scam – covid scam – racist scam – thins Non Conservative traitor signs us up for it

Boris Weighs In On Climate Boris Johnson shows off his high intellect and hairstyle once again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=623qKL4P9KE

Stand in South Hill Park Bracknell every Sunday from 10am meet fellow anti lockdown freedom lovers, keep yourself sane, make new friends and have a laugh.

Join our Stand in the Park – Bracknell – Telegram Group
http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell

Last edited 3 years ago by Lockdown Sceptic
17
-1
me too
me too
3 years ago
Reply to  amanuensis

And all these tales stand over a test that does not mean a thing. Drosten is an employee of the German state, besides being stupid.

11
0
loopDloop
loopDloop
3 years ago

From the penultimate sentence: ‘If they do, from what we now know we should probably place more trust in our immune system than we have in previous waves.’

Gosh, do you think? Trust in our immune system? Probably?

Trusting in our immune system these days is considered tantamount to heresy. It means you are against ‘The Science’. Worse, horror of horrors, it means you must be anti-vaxx!

The one thing missing from all these brilliant brainy analyses is that we have a perfectly good immune system, which should be our first line of defence. Then we have cheap effective safe treatments available, HCQ, Ivermectin, etc.

All the NPIs were brainless interventions of no value, which was obvious right out of the gate.

118
0
Norman
Norman
3 years ago
Reply to  loopDloop

Especially since the main “evidence” against HCQ has now been withdrawn by The Lancet

47
0
BurlingtonBertie
BurlingtonBertie
3 years ago
Reply to  loopDloop

Please, please can you sign this letter in support of Dr Peter McCullough, he first published the MATH protocol for treatment of covid with IVM, hydroxychloroquine etc. He also reads this site! He is being prosecuted for promoting these treatments.
https://faculty.utrgv.edu/eleftherios.gkioulekas/pmc-support-letter/

27
-2
peyrole
peyrole
3 years ago
Reply to  BurlingtonBertie

Scandulous! Signed. If he gets hounded into silence, its over.

12
-1
knee chee
knee chee
3 years ago
Reply to  BurlingtonBertie

Signed

5
0
Norman
Norman
3 years ago

Logical, rational, evidence based. Bound to be shut down sooner rather than later.

46
-1
vargas99
vargas99
3 years ago

Outstanding article. No doubt Lord Snooty will be along in a minute to accuse him of being a rabid anti vaxxer………..

55
0
peyrole
peyrole
3 years ago
Reply to  vargas99

Completely by accident I found something odd about this character and this site. If you click on his mname his ‘profile’ appears which amongst other things ranks his approval rating etc; its 4 stars. So I checked my own and after that some of the other regulars, no-one else I could find ranks above zero. Now it may be nothing, a glitch of the system, but as far as I could tell its not something you can alter personally. Odd?

10
0
lordsnooty
lordsnooty
3 years ago
Reply to  peyrole

I dislike all my fans.

1
-7
lordsnooty
lordsnooty
3 years ago
Reply to  vargas99

More than 75% of UK adults now double-jabbed
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58162318

1
-16
Liewe
Liewe
3 years ago
Reply to  lordsnooty

Fantastic, may it end well for them. I’ll watch from the side lines.

16
0
chris c
chris c
3 years ago
Reply to  Liewe

Ditto. About to tune up my immune system with quality sausages and broccoli, a couple of thickly buttered oatcakes plus red wine and some 85% chocolate.

I checked, the guy in the garage who “caught covid from his daughter” was double vaxxed. That went well . . .

Last edited 3 years ago by chris c
4
0
vargas99
vargas99
3 years ago
Reply to  lordsnooty

yawn

2
0
Hugh
Hugh
3 years ago
Reply to  lordsnooty

That’s right, Covid “vaccine” coercion rates are increasing.

8
0
Freecumbria
Freecumbria
3 years ago

Immune system hesitancy has got a lot to answer for.

43
-1
BS665
BS665
3 years ago

I already thought of that with my bare wit, professor. So did most people on this site no doubt.

Last edited 3 years ago by BS665
20
-1
Ruth Learner
Ruth Learner
3 years ago
Reply to  BS665

Yes my thoughts and Ivor Cummins et al talked in same vein about 1.2 years ago – it’s predictable but not using computer generated genomic sequencing – that’s called massive business for massive corporate interests. This is technology on steroids and why we’re in this nightmare scenario (I mean the mass hypnosis of the 75% etc.)

9
0
John
John
3 years ago

Also the vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 assume a universally equal response by the immune system, whereas, although 99% of our genes are the same, most of the remaining 1% that are different are concerned with our immune system, which can and do vary across ethnic groups. For example Caucasians do not have the gene that produces sickle cell disease, but it is in people of Afro-Caribbean descent. Even within that group there are subgroups who do not have that genetic makeup. Sickle cell disease is actually a response to the presence of malaria.

15
-1
Lockdown Sceptic
Lockdown Sceptic
3 years ago

climate scam – covid scam – racist scam – this Non Conservative traitor signs us up for it

Boris Weighs In On Climate Boris Johnson shows off his high intellect and hairstyle once again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=623qKL4P9KE

Stand in South Hill Park Bracknell every Sunday from 10am meet fellow anti lockdown freedom lovers, keep yourself sane, make new friends and have a laugh.

Join our Stand in the Park – Bracknell – Telegram Group
http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell

Last edited 3 years ago by Lockdown Sceptic
8
-1
Evison1
Evison1
3 years ago

Is it really the vaccines that are preventing deaths? Could it just be a seasonal effect? Deaths are presently picking up, possibly more so than at this time last year….

coronavirus-data-explorer-14.jpg
12
0
peyrole
peyrole
3 years ago
Reply to  Evison1

Doubt it with more deaths recorded this summer than last. Although they might just have got better at rigging the numbers I guess.

8
0
KidFury
KidFury
3 years ago

So like all other respiratory viruses then?

10
-1
Will
Will
3 years ago

Excellent article. Thank you.

13
-1
RickH
RickH
3 years ago

A good article. My only query is whether variation is that significant on this timescle.

Read in conjunction with

https://brownstone.org/articles/a-closer-look-at-germanys-covid-mortality/

… it provides excellent rational analysis.

6
-1
A Y M
A Y M
3 years ago

A bit late, but yeah.
Still think the obsession with cases is not helpful.
Try and find waves in death and hospitalisations, try and peel out the fake positives and those get a positive test in the hospital rather then for other reasons.

9
0
James Kreis
James Kreis
3 years ago

There was no pandemic.

30
-1
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
3 years ago
Reply to  James Kreis

There has been no pandemic, not even an epidemic. There has been a Casedemic.

None of this has ANYTHING whatsoever to do with a cold / ‘flu infection currently labelled Covid 19.

What is happening is a depopulation agenda and the imposition literally of a NWO.

We have proven our case re C1984 over and over – that debate should be dropped – the problem now is what we do next.

32
-3
8bit
8bit
3 years ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

The first sentence was sound. Then, you fell into the depopulation nonsense honey-trap.

5
-11
chunky lafunga
chunky lafunga
3 years ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

Huxley, I am more than willing to entertain the ideas you espouse, but I have one question I can’t quite find an answer to; if the agenda was depopulation, why would the conspirators not just release an actual bioweapon disguised as a virus with a higher IFR? Seems to me like going round the houses a bit, trying to dress up a garden variety flu as a deadly pandemic in order to force these jabs on the population, which I presume to be where the depopulating occurs. Why not just cut out the middle man, given that the virus narrative has more holes than a colander.

6
-2
Nearhorburian
Nearhorburian
3 years ago
Reply to  chunky lafunga

Because with the jabs you have much better control over who is killed.

Last edited 3 years ago by Nearhorburian
11
-2
Burlington
Burlington
3 years ago
Reply to  Nearhorburian

Simply put, and right on the button.

Its a selective genocide. Kill off the weak, the old and non productive, supernumerary part of the populous. Keep the fit, healthy and productive in digitally controlled slavery. Just switch em off as required.
Simple. Heinrich Himmler would be so impressed.

2
-2
timsk
timsk
3 years ago
Reply to  chunky lafunga

Why not just cut out the middle man, given that the virus narrative has more holes than a colander.

It’s the middle man who makes the most money!

6
-1
milesahead
milesahead
3 years ago
Reply to  chunky lafunga

Because such a bioweapon would pose a risk to the elite. Far, far easier to get people to voluntarily submit.
Why do you think they want EVERYONE in the world to have these experimental jabs?

16
-1
peyrole
peyrole
3 years ago

In the 4th bullet point, the second use of ‘Immunity’ is incorrect, as the sentence actually says, the ‘vaccines’ don’t provide immunity, they may provide some symptom refief and possible reduce deaths. Although the spike of deaths after their use with aged, infirm patients means this need qualification.

9
-1
RW
RW
3 years ago
Reply to  peyrole

That’s the same. As an active agent, a vaccine is supposed to be free of noticable effects. The only effect it’s supposed to have is to prime the immune system to enable it to fight the actual pathogen quicker/ more effectively.

That’s why the idea that a vaccine could prevent detectable infection is ludicrous which unfortunately implies that it’s not what the COVID paranoics were hoping it to be, namely, some kind of scientific super hand sanitizier killing the remaining 0.1% (or 0.01%) of All Dangerous Germs[tm].

These idiots will be out of the bottle and continue to sow mindless destruction of anything belonging to somebody else on their path while they “fight” against their own, irrational fears until someone puts them back in.

2
0
chunky lafunga
chunky lafunga
3 years ago

A good write up/read, however no mention of the potential for the jabs to drive new varients? Seems pretty plausible, and if true would surely derail some of the author’s conclusions and predictions?

3
0
RW
RW
3 years ago
Reply to  chunky lafunga

As the author points out: If this would happen, it would have happened seriously long time ago already. The jab is supposed to generate an immune response. As that’s exactly what happens through infection as well, the virus finds itself in the exact same situation with and without it.

I’m still uncertain if the vaxxers and antivaxxers and the lockdown fans are really distinct groups of people as all they’re all spreading the same message employing the same appeal to fear: We’re all going to die of COVID unless we’re all vaccinated! And because this doesn’t help, we also need eternal lockdowns (and Chinese one-way facemasks, obviously, the moneymaker fashion accessoire of 2020)!

Last edited 3 years ago by RW
1
-1
thinkcriticall
thinkcriticall
3 years ago

90% Of Patients Treated With Experimental Israeli COVID Drug Discharged Within 5 Days
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/90-patients-treated-experimental-israeli-covid-drug-discharged-within-5-days

3
0
bluemonkey
bluemonkey
3 years ago

How can we be sure that variants exist, or even the virus itself if they have never been successfully isolated?

5
-1
cubby
cubby
3 years ago
Reply to  bluemonkey

Exactly. There is no test for a variant, as far as I can find out.

3
-1
JohnK
JohnK
3 years ago

Just going through the abstract, it seems to be a wise summary in support of our position. The real risks now are the underlying problems of bureaucratic opportunism, political syllogism, and other nefarious activities.

2
0
JohnK
JohnK
3 years ago

A bit more detail:

Re this paragraph:

“ That leaves just one final type of jigsaw piece – population immunity. Building on pre-existing cross-immunity to other coronaviruses, immunity due to SARS-CoV-2 infection is superior to immunity generated by vaccination in that it defends against a broader range of variants and engenders good protection against infection, illness and infectiousness. By contrast, vaccines do little to stop a vaccinated individual from becoming infected or being infectious (see here and here) and whatever small benefit they may provide in terms of reducing transmissibility will merely delay the occurrence of infections, as explained above for NPIs. Vaccines are, thankfully, very good at reducing serious illness, hospitalisation and death, and so on that basis they are only well merited for use in old and vulnerable individuals. It is critical that the very significant limitations of vaccines regarding infection and transmission control are now widely advertised and understood, as this makes the idea of vaccine ID cards completely nonsensical in scientific terms – as well as highly discriminatory and illiberal. Vaccine safety profiles are an additional consideration. ”

In that one, it says nothing about the negative risk of them – so-called ‘adverse effects’. It’s wise in as much as it only recommends it’s use for the old and vulnerable, but more about the balance of risks for anyone would be worth mentioning here.

5
0
bowlsman
bowlsman
3 years ago

It’s a great piece but our so called experts/scientists will just say, oh no hes not correct in his assertions we are correct in ours. End of discussion and end of his career.

2
0
damage124
damage124
3 years ago

It’s what happens when the World powers set up a plan to combat a very dangerous viral attack which could threaten the entire world population.

Sadly, the searing intellects who created the plan, failed to realise that Sars-Cov-2 wasn’t the dangerous virus they were expecting.

Last edited 3 years ago by damage124
1
0
swedenborg
swedenborg
3 years ago

Agree with many here.An outstanding article.Should be shared and spread.

5
0
Pavlov Bellwether
Pavlov Bellwether
3 years ago

Next contestant, Prof. Expert Numpty from the University of Dunces. Specialist subject – the bleeding obvious. (Apologies to Basil Fawlty). FIGHT. BACK. BETTER. Regularly updated new website with useful links and information: https://www.LCAHub.org/

9
0
Emerald Fox
Emerald Fox
3 years ago

From SNCF (French railways) own site:

https://www.sncf.com/en/passenger-offer/travel-by-train/covid19-rail-traffic-what-you-need-to-know

0
0
TJN
TJN
3 years ago

We know they [NPIs] did something because the incidence of all other respiratory viruses has reduced dramatically over the course of the pandemic wherever such measures were applied (even in Australia, where Covid is all but absent). Most respiratory viruses have Ro values of less than two, and so suppression measures need only be mildly potent to push these Rt values below one. In contrast, SARS-CoV-2 has a far greater Ro (typically estimated as three-to-four, or even more) and so those same suppression measures will not so easily push the covid virus Rt below one.

Is this correct?? Possibly, but correlation/causation etc. …

The apparent absence of colds and flu during lockdowns has been notable, and cries out for verification and explanation. 

Whilst for many adults lockdowns have not completely or even severely curtailed their interaction with other homo sapiens (life has to go on …), the same cannot be said for many children. Kept home from nursery and school, I’d hazard a guess that many have been effectively isolated from wider society. 

Now children play little, if any, role in the spread of SARS-COV-2. Thus, however SARS-COV-2 does spread, locking down children didn’t have much effect. But children clearly do spread colds and flu (don’t I know it), and indeed may well be the major vectors of these viruses. Thus locking down children might explain the lack of colds and flu while at the same time having no effect on the spread of SARS-COV-2. 

I’m not saying this is definitely what has happened (correlation/causation etc. …) – just that such a mechanism might explain, or part explain, what we’ve been seeing. 

As a final anecdote, my two (3 and 5) were at home during the spring 2020 lockdown (nursery closed) and the TJN household was remarkably free of colds. But they attended nursery/school normally and fully since June 2020, during which we’ve had loads of colds, and noticeably more so since the schools fully opened in March 2021. 

Edit PS: of course, it is possible or even likely that many flus have been misdiagnosed as covid, but the absence of colds cannot be similarly explained.

Last edited 3 years ago by TJN
1
0
RW
RW
3 years ago
Reply to  TJN

The absence of colds can perfectly well be explained by the fact that grown-up people routinely ignore them and that somebody just claimed they had been absent.

NB: I live alone, don’t really have any friends and always work from home. This means for much of 2020 and 2021-so-far, about the only social contact I had with other people was getting infected with whatever viruses their bodies happened to host.

Antisocial distancing is a method of low-volume torture for people who don’t have circles of private contacts and a club to beat businesses certain people particularly dislike and has no other effect, not the least because everybody who can ignore it does ignore it.

2
0
Sandra Barwick
Sandra Barwick
3 years ago

If you read one more thing today, make it Bhakdi’s report on the Pfizer rat studies referenced down below. On the doctors4covidethics.org site
Devastating. “There are many ways in which this molecule could have been modified for faster degradation in vivo. It is therefore noteworthy that this was not done – the vaccine was deliberately formulated with a compound that is degraded and eliminated from the body very slowly…. we must expect cumulative toxicity with repeated vaccinations,”
He also mentions that the rat studies showed toxicity in tissues, inflammation and function damage to nerves and joints.
I have heard and seen this strongly associated with the AZ version, obviously in the more susceptible over 60s.

3
0
RW
RW
3 years ago
Reply to  Sandra Barwick

He also mentions that the rat studies showed toxicity in tissues, inflammation and function damage to nerves and joints.

Exactly what’s going to happen when a vaccine uses an artifical virus supposed to damage body cells in just the same way as the real thing except that the products of this viral reproduction process aren’t capable of reproducing on their own: It’s going to infect cells. And these will end up dying. The theory behind that is presumably that the body has enough of them and they will get replaced soon.

I don’t know which kind of gene-engineering genius came up with this idea and but I’d be interested in knowing if he’s willing to try that on himself.

1
0
Arfur Mo
Arfur Mo
3 years ago

“His theory is similar to that put forward by Dr Will Jones, namely, that the overall immunity levels in most populations are quite high, but need to be ‘topped up’ each time a new variant appears, causing infections to rise and then fall. Importantly, the decline in infections has little or nothing to do with non-pharmaceutical interventions”

Just like the flu bro, or the common cold.

<Best Churchill Voice>Nevah in the field of human pathology have so many looked at a disease with such intensity with so little real knowledge gained”</Best Churchill Voice>

1
0
JamesM
JamesM
3 years ago

I’m sorry to come to this so late, but I must congratulate Professor Brookes for writing what I think is the definitive piece on this whole sorry saga. This truly is a brilliant analysis. Thanks again.

1
0
SAGE LIARS
SAGE LIARS
3 years ago

As soon as the word variant appears the rest of the article is obviously bull*hit

0
0

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