As promised, we have not run away. We have now completed our undertaking to review the 100 models forming the backbone of the UKHSA’s latest offering: the mapping review called ‘Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce transmission of COVID-19 in the U.K.‘
UKHSA did not extract nor appraise the evidence as it maintained it did not have the resources. If that is true and if ‘resources’ means cash or expertise (or both), this is a serious situation, as you shall read. So, as we feel sorry for the poor old UKHSA, we have done the appraisal for it.
Earlier versions of the review were very poor but not as poor quality as the studies included in them.
We focused on the 100 models identified in the mapping document as they form two-thirds of the unreviewed evidence base, and contemporary folklore would have us believe civil liberties in the U.K. were restricted on the basis of these models.
For each paper reporting a model, we asked four questions, and here is what we found.
The total entries in each row are not 100 as some studies were inappropriate, one was a duplicate study and one was not identifiable from the reference. Also, studies which did okay in answering one question may not have done well in answering any or all of the other three, so each row should be read separately except for answers to question four, which sums up the quality of the studies. Below each row, we have posted a brief example of the text content, which gives you some idea of what we had to contend with.
For each model study, we asked the following questions and got the following answers:
Q1 What is the NPI being assessed? (e.g. is it a non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) and is it defined and described? In what setting? (e.g. community, hospital, homes etc.)
The ‘not an intervention category’ includes reviews of other models and studies where testing on its own is considered an intervention.
Example: ‘Targeted local versus national measures.’
Q2 What is the source for the effect estimate? (to model its effects you need a data source, i.e., what does the intervention do?)
Some models used more than one source. To simplify our summary, we classified the source according to the main source used. For example, one model was based on 16 variables, of which seven are ‘estimated’, three are ‘assumed’, two are based on the same Worldometer 2020 set, two on the same WHO data with no definitions, one is based on the Chinese life expectancy at birth and the last on a 2020 model from China. We classified this under the assumed/estimated category.
Two studies used a different estimate of the effect from the same source (a news feature).
One model was based on measles transmission data and another on Chinese data of dubious generalisability to the U.K. (neither are summarised above).
Some of the assumptions used were often incorrect. One model assumed that the virus is only detectable by PCR during the infectious period. One model thought that reducing the number of contacts in one location did not affect the number occurring in another.
Q3 What is the size of the effect? (such as risk reduction of SARS-CoV-2 infection)
The category ‘implausible’ includes claims for huge effects or the words ‘elimination’ or ‘suppression’.
The category ‘incorrect’ includes inferences that do not follow from the inputs into the model (i.e., the answers to the first two questions were unsatisfactory) or claims that intervention X interrupted transmission without corroborating evidence. Here is an example of such a statement: “NPI interventions are always going to have a positive influence on mitigating the spread, independently of the testing frequency.”
Only two papers mentioned the potential costs and harms of NPIs.
Results often follow the assumptions made. One model assumed that under lockdown that transmission is reduced by 80%, and reported, “as one would expect”, targeted lockdown leads to strong outbreak suppression: 87% of outbreaks are contained.
No models validated their results by following up real-world data. For example, one model suggests that if a sufficient proportion of the population uses surgical masks and follows social distancing regulations, then SARS-CoV-2 infections can be controlled without requiring a lockdown. The real-world data suggest a very different result.
Q4 What is the case definition? (how did they define a case of COVID-19?)
Although the data speak for themselves, the overall picture is one of frenetic guesswork, with a high number of models published in the space of two years. Failure to publish a protocol, lack of standardisation and extensive ‘estimation’ at times from sources unlikely to be generalisable to the U.K. undermine the significance of any of the studies in our review.
Perhaps the biggest problem is the total lack of definition of a case of Covid. Only two studies published in 2020 used or referred to a definition (WHO’s). Further investigation revealed that the definition used was a clinical one. It defined a respiratory syndrome without laboratory confirmation. Although we ‘marked up’ one study in the ROBINS I tool, the definition lacks specificity, which is highly problematic if the target for your actions is SARS-CoV-2. As some of the studies compare the results of different models or compare epidemic data before and after one or more interventions, such comparisons are invalid unless a standardised credible definition of a ‘case’ is used.
Many years ago, health economists were criticised for the way they constructed models and economic evaluation.
Health economics is a fascinating and vital discipline that teaches us how to make the most of the available resources. But the importance of economic models – and the iron logic underpinning them – was undermined by a lack of reporting criteria, poor, non-standardised methods and a lack of tools to quality-assess an economic paper.
The best economists understood well that these gaps undermined their discipline and did something about it. There needed to be a distinction between reasonable work and the type of piffle we’ve reviewed above. When the Cochrane Collaboration got started, one of the first methods groups to get off the ground was health economics. The message that good evidence needed to be used, there had to be transparency and replications of results and standard definitions had to be used has been understood. For example, even today many workers use the term ‘cost-effectiveness’ as synonymous with economic evaluation, a bit like some folk use the F word (flu) as synonymous with influenza, or acute respiratory infections or whatever is in their heads at the time.
Cost-effectiveness analysis is a specific design, different from ‘cost benefit’ or ‘cost minimisation’. It tests what is known as technical efficiency. Its widespread misuse was addressed by economists who started producing titles which included the study design, such as ‘A cost-effectiveness analysis of knackercillin versus wondermycin in adults with X disease’. Good practice now also involves producing a protocol, making datasets available (and sometimes the actual model on request) and the evidence on which any assumptions are based. The evidence they prefer is from systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials, but that depends on the study question and the availability of the evidence. Much of the technical jargon has now been taken up in everyday scientific speak, so weird terms like ‘time preference’ or ‘discounting’ are more accessible.
This brings us to the model circus we have summarised above. If modellers want to be taken seriously, they need to follow in the footsteps of economists who, in turn, were inspired by trialists and EBMers (evidence-based mediciners).
Your granny should not be locked up on the basis of a model grounded on a press release with 15 out of the 20 pages full of mathematical formulae. Sensible, credible predictive modelling may have something to offer decision-making. But the careerism and narcissism we have witnessed and the fantasy methods we are documenting must be addressed.
Dr. Carl Heneghan is the Oxford Professor of Evidence Based Medicine and Dr. Tom Jefferson is an epidemiologist based in Rome who works with Professor Heneghan on the Cochrane Collaboration. This article was first published in two parts on their Substack, Trust The Evidence, which you can subscribe to here.
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.
“We already know that he doesn’t want schools to close again”
No, what we know is that he has probably deemed it politically better to pretend to keep schools open, and leave it to local authorities, school leadership, unions and other bodies to fuck school life up by imposing tests, masks, contact tracing, cancellation of all extra-curricular stuff etc, so that school is a shit experience but it’s not the government’s fault, even though they have egged on and encouraged the futile, evil crap that is going on. Oh, and I forget the jab coercion – truly evil to jab kids for political reasons, to cover your sorry arse.
Classic blame-shifting techniques, first learnt at Eton and then honed thereafter. It’s the “Autobiography of a Cad”, but with real people on the receiving end.
You’ve got the reason wrong. The rulers don’t care about that idiot’s arse. They can break him like a feather any time they need to.
I think he cares about his arse though, but God knows. Whoever is pulling the strings the whole lot of them will burn in Hell.
Yep: for all eternity (which, for you politicians, is rather longer even than the covid three weeks!).
Jabbing kids is murder pure and simple and Johnson should be punished accordingly.
Johnson has told us that Jesus wants us all fully jabbed !
He really is disgusting – a disgrace to Publlc Office and a servile puppet of Gates and the WEF..
No, that is Wilby.
The Anglican Church is to be left.
It is over.
See you in the hills.
Those hills are going to be pretty crowded!
As I understand it control of schools closing has been devolved to the local authorities under the 1984 public health act.
“Leave it to… unions”.
I thought that was what 1979 was about? So Peking Piffle is taking us back to the 70s in more ways than one then?
Football is already restricted since Plan B – I will never go to any sporting event or any other event that requires me to prove my covid status.
Exactly. I wonder how many of those who say they’re anti-medical apartheid willingly take part in this medical apartheid by showing some sort of permission pass related to their Covid status in order to get into events/places.
And I will never return to a football match where the Moronic pampered players genuflect to an American Marxist organisation.
How about a roof over your head?
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/digital-identity-document-validation-technology-idvt/identity-document-validation-technology-in-the-right-to-work-and-right-to-rent-schemes-and-dbs-pre-employment-checking-accessible-version
(I do hope this is a spoof.)
If you’re tempted to do something Prime Minister then resist the temptation, because history is not going to judge you well as it is, and you will just be making a bad situation worse for yourself.
Johnson’s first responsibility is to Bill Gates and making Bill happy is all that matters.
Trying to recruit Jesus on Christmas Day for his dark and shabby purpose – could it get worse?
And New Zealand – tell me this is not true – I would be pleased to hear it – Says that those dying of Covid should be “allowed euthanasia’ – is is so? Tell me it is not so.
I hope you’ve written to tell him so – because I doubt he reads these comments.
The one thing he should do is to stop testing, unless people are in hospital or clearly ill. Then it’s all over. Sorry Toby but if he doesn’t do this then your chum is well deep into something very nasty.
But testing last week only cost what it would cost to train 1,000 doctors, or build half a hospital. It was worth it to stop the harmless Omicron in its tracks… oh, wait…
Here
They will not need real doctors in their ‘Brave New World’ – just people dressed up in white coats and masks to hand out Pharma products.
‘They’ will have their own teams of medics anyway, and private clinics. No waiting lists for ‘them’ when they’re in need of medical attention.
Fake PCR test Scamdemic from day one – see “Pseudo Pandemic” by Iain Davis.
It is all in there in black and white – fully documented – for all to read who care to..
Excellent article. Iain Davis is a REAL journalist.
“banning attendance at football games will make zero difference to Covid transmission.” We already know that when it comes to covid, political decisions and the nudge unit, making zero difference makes zero difference.
Roman emperors feared losing the backing of the Legions, so were forced to pay off the soldiers’ debts in order to survive.
Lord Tyrannus is both infinitely malleable in his ‘convictions’ and simultaneously captive to the Covidian elites, local and global, so must introduce further restrictions or lose his place. He has no ‘guns’ to stick to, just syringes.
We will still be talking about and fighting restrictions in December 2022.
Until we are beaten down into surveyed, digitally passported docile submission nursing our many jab induced ailments.
Time to read a history of Mao’s Great Leap forward Cultural Revolution (estimated deaths: 40 million)
Both Gove and Marr were “Maoists” at Uni.
Communism was materialist in motives and goals. Covidianism wants your soul, body, mind, and stuff, all at once. I am no defender of the former, but each new form of tyranny seems to be a step further into the abyss.
I hope he had 3 weetabix this morning
But logic and evidence are not considerations – just look at Wales, Scotland and N Ireland. All adopting different pointless restrictions. If there were particular restrictions which worked then there would be consistency, but we know that in reality none of them make any difference so it’s descended to a ‘pick ‘n’ mix’ approah of pointless restrictions, where different ‘leaders’ (or their string-pullers) choose a selection seemingly at random and impose them.
There is, of course, no monitoring of effectiveness as that would demonstrate that they don’t work (as those imposing them must surely already be well aware anyway). There is also no consideration of the harm they cause.
Spot on. They will of course disguise all this as ‘adapting a range of options to our particular ways of lifeses’, or some such.
A big part of the cover-up is the tangled web of dislogic, which nobody can fathom, and which passes for ‘complexity’ and ‘rationality’ among ‘the people’.
‘Nuances’ here indicate Sophistry and Bullshit, however.
“not impose any further restrictions, as the Daily Mail recommends in a strong leader this morning.”
Does that mean the DM will be stopping publishing the fear propaganda that has enabled and sustained the panic measures throughout?
The Mail is a total disgrace to real journalism – which seems have been banned by Ofcom under Johnson’s never-to-end “Emergency Rule”.
Johnson and his tyrannical Cabal now are the National Emergency!
There are journalists in the Mail who do not accept the agenda.
That has been clear from the start. I see and salute you.
Seems an appropriate time to roll out an old favourite.
Sing along folks, amazingly prescient really.
Lily The Pink. Video below.
We’ll drink a drink, a drink
To Lily the Pink, the Pink, the Pink
The saviour of the human race
For she invented, medicinal compound
Most efficacious in every case
Mr. Freers, had sticky out ears
And it made him awful shy
And so they gave him medicinal compound
And now he’s learning how to fly
Robert Tony, was known to be bony
He would never eat his meals
And so they gave him medicinal compound
Now they move him round on wheels
We’ll drink a drink, a drink
To Lily the Pink, the Pink, the pink
The savior of the human race
For she invented medicinal compound
Most efficacious in every case
Old Ebenezer thought he was Julius Caesar
And so they put him in a home
Where they gave him medicinal compound
And now he’s emperor of Rome
Johnny Hammer, had a terrible st-st-st-st-stammer
He could hardly s-s-say a word
And so they gave him medicinal compound
Now’s he’s seen, but never heard
We’ll drink a drink, a drink
To Lily the Pink, the Pink, the Pink
The saviour of our human race
For she invented, medicinal compound
Most efficacious in every case
Aunty Milly, ran willy-nilly
When her legs they did recede
So they rubbed on medicinal compound
Now they call her Milly Pede
Jennifer Eccles, had terrible freckles
And the boys all called her names
But they gave her medicinal compound
Now he joins in all the games
We’ll drink a drink, a drink
To Lily the Pink, the Pink, the Pink
The savior of our human race
For she invented, medicinal compound
Most efficacious in every case
Lily the Pink, she turned to drink
She filled up with paraffin inside
And despite her medicinal compound
Sadly pickled Lily died
Up to heaven her soul ascended
All the church bells they did ring
She took with her medicinal compound
Hark the herald angels sing
We’ll drink a drink, a drink
To Lily the Pink, the Pink, the Pink
The saviour of our human race
For she invented, medicinal compound
Most efficacious in every case
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=youtube+lily+the+pink&t=opera&iax=videos&ia=videos&iai=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D2x8D4T–0v4
The Jennifer Eccles stanza is the one I remember best!
I think we all know that Johnson won’t be deciding anything, time the editor woke up to this fact.
It’s time to stop denying free will and rejecting the power of ideas
He’ll stop big-crowd stuff for New Year’s Eve, a very different kind of celebration from Christmas. He may possibly even close pubs early, or say it’s beer gardens only.
The Daily Heil’s advice on how to be a strong prime minister is hilarious. If there ever were a strong prime minister, the first thing he’d do is tell the Daily Heil to f*** off.
Then he would go gunning for the BMA, the high table at Trinity College, Cambridge, and the City of London. He’d ignore the deranged crown prince, and he’d tell the White House they could f*** off as well. He would then sit back and watch the pigs fly past his window.
Toby I wouldn’t lower myself to ask this scum for anything
The mention of the gold cup meeting at Cheltenham in March 2020 is interesting. Living not far away and being a keen follower of National Hunt racing, I, too, have seen this event cited many times in the press and on forums as a hive of infection, and people saying how ‘irresponsible’ it was to allow this to go ahead. No one believes there was no spike in cases, and I have no idea how this rumour started. However, it’s a lie that fits with the narrative, so it’s allowed to stand. In this particular corner of the shire I have yet to meet anyone who has had covid. Mind you, I can walk for miles without meeting another person, so I suppose that helps.
Everyone seems to have also conveniently forgotten little doom puppet’s visit to Bristol a couple of weeks beforehand, which encouraged the turnout of hundreds of gullible schoolkids…and we know now this thing was highly likely to be in circulation before then!
The fat controller will do whatever he’s told to do.
1 It will be for our own good.
2 The fault of the unvaccinated.
But they have modelled the transmission of virus particles and clearly proved that it occurs. Follow the science because the evidence doesn’t support it.
Kim Jong-Johnson doesn’t decide on the basis of evidence but on whim, on what he thinks will be popular at any given millisecond
No, no his orders come direct from GAVI and Davos.
You commit the logical fallacy of argument from absolute pish.
Kim Jong Johnson has always been a parasite, entirely dependent on others, he wants to be popular and is incapable of the most elementary thought.
What your post denies is the very existence of the human mind.
Are we sure there was ever a ‘pandemic’, the criteria for a pandemic was changed just prior to the announcement of a ‘pandemic’, elderly were removed from hospital, and when they died, GP’s didnt visit and post mortems weren’t conducted. Testing equipment and also Testing has proved unreliable which it would be if its a choice between paid to not work or go to work. Is it not just the required confusion for the financial reset?
Another fact about the Cheltenham Festival, is that it was attended by about 25,000 Irish citizens from all corners of the Emerald Isle……
……there was NO spread caused when they returned home – Irish mortality figures were stable for months afterwards.
I have been a regular at my PL club for 50 years, and I am still going . However I will not attend if I have to show a covid pass. Hopefully the whole madness will collapse under its own weight, and through non compliance. The attitude of the PL in particular, which is quite happy to ban the non compliant, has made me completely reappraise my relationship with the game. They care only about their own snouts and keeping the trough full.I’m off to a local Southern League game this afternoon.
Youre doing it again. All you need to convey to the agents of deceit is that Convid has a survival rate of ~99.9 percent from natural immunity and the tiny minority who do get ill can be successfully treated and their illness prevented with out of patent, cheap, genuinely safe and effective drugs which are perfectly aligned with our bodies (these are realy just preventing the usual range of winter symptioms which have been fraudulently mislabelled Convid, but Ill play the game and act all dumb like this is all proven to be true) and do not lead to blood clots, immune system disorders, death, paralysis, blindness, Bells Palsy, uncontrollable shaking, seizures etc , therefore every measure they introduce, every restriction, every conference and broadcast where they lie to the public and deceive them as to the severity of the alleged novel virus, is a CRIME against the people of this country, making them CRIMINALS. They are only getting away with it because of the hardcore brainwashing they have force into peoples lives, using guilt and fear to brainwash people in to compliance. Its fucking TERRORISM. They are TERRORISTS.
The original super scary world destroying megadeath Wuhan strain had a survival rate of near enough 99.9 percent from natural immunity, according to the most qualified person in the world to make such statements. The British government also released a notice on 19th March 2020 – before the first lockdown – to confirm that they had downgraded Convid form a high consequence infectious disease because it was confirmed to be a LOW MORTALITY RATE VIRUS. I repeat this was BEFORE THE FIRST LOCKDOWN. Moronic is even less deadly, so the whole shitshow is defeated on this singular point. No further arguments need to be made. These criminals are destroying our lives on the back of lies and deceit, nothing else. They are doing it for their bankster and corporate criminal masters. Thats the issue. They are traitors. They are committing TREASON. This is a TREASONOUS GOVERNMENT.
With this in mind, and based on this fundamentally important point which I have been hammering on this board for months and months but its still not registering with you how important this point is, THERE IS NO JUSTIFICATION FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL. CASE CLOSED.
They began the Convid scam with the WHO lying to everyone by saying that Convid had an infection fatality rate of 3.4 percent. Its actually more like 0.1 percent. Yet the agenda carries on as if the original fake IFR was legit. Its not and it never was, ever.
You dont need to say anything more the the Prime MInister. Put simply, he is presiding over a scam which is destroying all of our lives, its robbing us of our freedom and for those who have been injected, it could well spell a very early death sentence for them. Huge numbers of people could realistically be dead within three or five years from these injections causing CVI AIDS. – Covid Vaccine Induced AIDS.
Status of COVID-19
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19
BREAKING NEWS ! Prof Dr John Ioannidis Stanford University On Real Data On Coronavirus Pandemic
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btvDL6kIDsA
Global perspective of COVID-19 epidemiology for a full-cycle pandemic
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/eci.13423
Thats a 99.97percent survival rate in the under 70s from natural immunity. Is it really so difficult to understand this – to relate a low mortality rate to the fact that what we are being forced to endure is completely insane. But then you are from two plus two equals five land, so you probably still think Bin Laden did 911 too.
Spectacular, thank you.
Yes – it should be the Editorial in the Mail and the Sun and the Telegraph and the Express …oh but wait they are all “owned” by Gates and censored by Ofcom to keep the sheep in line!
I wasn’t aware that the Mail and Sun received $$$ from Gates or had joined the Trusted News Initiative. Also OFCOM doesn’t control the press yet … does it?
governments and their global interests are the virus
Yes and they are deadly!
And if you want to do the sums for yourself, try this: https://qcovid.org/Calculation Very similar numbers to the ones you mention, but you can play with the variables used as well, thus in my situation the survival probability is 99.98%.
Actually, yes: stop, in their entirety, ALL sporting events. See how long you get away with that, Bozo!
Don’t believe Johnson – he is playing with us!
‘WE CAN confirm that – in line with updated Government requirements and starting from QPR’s home fixture versus AFC Bournemouth on December 27th 2021 – fans over 18 accessing Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium must display their NHS Covid Pass to gain entry, or provide proof of a negative result from a recent lateral flow test within the previous 48 hours.’
https://www.qpr.co.uk/news/club-news/important-qpr-latest-covid-protocols-101211/
So people are under no illusions, Toby Young appears to be a willing participant in medical apartheid.
I couldn’t give a monkey’s how much you love your club. I’m an old school Chelsea supporter, have followed them through thick and thin up and down the country from the age of 13, but now I wouldn’t go near the club as it willingly participates in a medical apartheid where we have the segregation of citizens based on whether or not they present papers showing ‘proof’ of their Covid/health status, where we have the deliberate creation of upper-level citizens and lower-level citizens.
It couldn’t be more clear.
Ultimately, Young appears to have no solid moral principles here. He is a willing participant in this ghastly state of affairs.
While I appreciate this site for much of its excellent work, it seems clear that Young does not practise true scepticism, and his moral principles are questionable at best.
Put another way, it seems to me that Young just doesn’t like lockdown. Give him a way out of it, and he’ll comply.
My club Luton did the sensible thing and said their capacity was 9,999 avoiding all restrictions.
(Then again our maximum capacity is only about 250 higher than that.)
“Soon to be sir Chris”.
What a surprise. He has been a good boy…
Maybe watching footballers clutching their chests and dropping to the ground is not a good look….
They test for the flu since they’ve never isolated Covid-19. Which makes me wonder how they can tell there is a delta variant. They never isolated the virus but they use a test to show the damage of a solution does on monkey kidney cells then show the cellular debris as proof of the virus. So, they can use this method to claim an UNENDING! amount of variants. A lot of cancers and “viruses” are probably just different forms of parasites. Since the tests can’t differentiate between cold and flu and covid then doesn’t that mean ivermectin cures both the cold and the flu? Welcome to “they’ve been lying to us our entire lives about everything”. Get your Ivermectin while you still can! https://ivmpharmacy.com
And let’s not forget what our esteemed Professor Wittery said in May 2020 while he was still sane:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adj8MCsZKlg&feature=youtu.be
Boris needs to also ‘release’ the churches.
At one Welsh rugby match only 50 spectators were allowed into the ground to watch, but 140 sat in the clubhouse viewing on a live stream!! Yet another example of what utter nonsense all these restrictions are.