Who Will the Next Party Leaders Be?

Political Betting is a weekly column by Mark Littlewood aimed at people who like gambling on politics.

There’s a renewed bout of speculation about an early General Election (“early” seems to mean anytime between now and the summer of 2027). This time it is based on Andy Burnham’s apparent desire to not merely relax the rules around voter identification being required at polling stations but to rush through such changes. Why the hurry if there isn’t going to be an election until 2029?

My own view remains that we are unlikely to go to the polls until then and if you agree with me, you can more than double your money on the exchanges. However, I readily concede that I only make this prediction with limited confidence. If we get into a situation in which Labour’s poll lead looks very likely to yield a Commons majority, it becomes more likely that the Prime Minister will fire the starting gun.

However, we are still some considerable distance away from that being the case and I suspect that Andy Burnham is just seeking to keep all his options open rather than it being the case that he has a settled intention to seek a fresh mandate in short order.

All that said, a smart gambler is always willing to question their starting position and to consider the wagers they would be inclined to place if circumstances change. If it does begin to look as though Burnham will seek a dissolution at some point in the coming months, then I have a number of bets in mind.

After the ‘insider trading’ scandal surrounding Rishi Sunak’s decision to go the country earlier than expected, I don’t intend to join the rush to put down money on a snap poll based on Westminster rumours. But if an election is called in 2027, I will immediately dive into the ‘next party leader’ markets.

My rationale is that the most common route to a change in a party’s leader is defeat in a General Election. It is true that recent years have shown an increased appetite for defenestration in Parliamentary mid-term but it is the fallout from a proven rejection at the hands of the electorate that tends to lead to the most dramatic changing of the guard.

Looking first at the Conservatives, Kemi Badenoch’s position is widely seen as unassailable. Barring a black swan event, she seems certain to lead the Tories into the next election whenever it comes. Despite her impressive personal ratings, there is little evidence that her party has done much to shake off the legacy of its final years in office. Kemi’s slow and steady – one might even call it methodical – approach to winning back support (or even the right to a fair hearing) is unlikely to come to fruition if an election takes place in the next six months. If the Tories have a poor showing at the polls, Kemi Badenoch’s current iron grip on her party may suddenly loosen. There are a range of attractive long odds bets in a market that currently reflects the fact that there is no threat whatsoever to Kemi’s leadership and absolutely zero appetite within the party to even think about who her replacement might be. You can secure reasonable odds (about 9/2) on the current favourite, new intake MP Katie Lam, but I’d be inclined to look further down the list. You can back justice spokesman Nick Timothy at around 25/1 or – if you fancy a wilder flutter – the quietly efficient defence spokesman James Cartlidge is available at an absurdly generous 140/1.

I also think value can be found in the market on Andy Burnham’s replacement. An early election surely will only happen if the PM is supremely confident of winning it. However, as Theresa May discovered in 2017, such confidence can turn out to be seriously misplaced. If a 2027 election results in Labour being ejected from office, surely the 30/1 (or better) you can get on backbencher Alistair Carns is well worth a nibble. He would be wholly untainted by what would, by then, have been a disastrous miscalculation by the Burnham administration and would be ideally placed as the candidate most likely to offer a wholly fresh start.

The LibDems and the Greens are currently both going through a bout of leadership instability. If we don’t end up going back to the polls until 2029, I suspect both of these parties will find new leaders by then. Indeed, one of the things that may be keeping Ed Davey and Zack Polanski in post in the short term is the nagging fear that a snap election would mean a new frontman would have no time to build any sort of profile.

As I have argued before, although LibDem deputy leader Daisy Cooper is the most likely replacement for Davey, her odds of around 1/2 are ludicrously short. It’s worth laying those odds on the exchanges. In the event that the LibDems have a poor result and don’t find themselves in coalition, the party will quite likely turn to a current unknown in order to recast the party’s strategy and purpose.

Only William Hill is quoting on the identity of the next Green leader. If you share my view that Greens are likely to move to an even more extreme position if they dispense with Polanski, the 7/2 available on Mothin Ali might well be worth taking. However, I still think the 6/4 that Polanski will be replaced in 2027 the more attractive bet (this covers both a failed election campaign in that year and the possibility that we are going all the way to 2029 and the Greens sense a need to change horses).

I’m not intending to place any of these bets until it looks very likely that an election is on the horizon. So, I may end up not placing them at all as the prevailing position in late 2028 is certain to very different to that of today. But I’m always keen to have a Plan B up my sleeve and that would involve a dive into the party leader markets if it starts to look like Burnham is about to go the Palace.

Mark Littlewood is a former Director of the Institute of Economic Affairs and the Director of PopCon.