One of the key findings in our various analyses of the ONS (Office for National Statistics) vaccine mortality surveillance data was that there were spikes in non-Covid mortality in the unvaccinated that coincided with peak vaccine rollouts. We demonstrated that the main plausible explanation for such an obvious anomaly was that people dying shortly after vaccination were being wrongly classified as unvaccinated deaths. Whether through policy or error this certainly happens (indeed in Sweden, a reply to an FOI confirms that those dying within 14 days of vaccination are routinely counted as unvaccinated).
Once the ONS data were adjusted for these anomalies there was no evidence that the vaccines reduced all-cause mortality.
Our detractors (mainly from the ‘mutton crew‘), who are always desperate to suppress any data suggesting the vaccines are not as safe and effective as claimed, said that there was an alternative explanation for the anomalies. They argued that the anomalies were the result of especially ill people being denied the vaccine; so there was, they claimed, a ‘healthy vaccinee effect’ (or equivalently a ‘moribund unvaccinated effect’). Here is one of the key ‘mutton crew’ repeating that explanation this week (while attacking the recent paper by Dr. Aseem Malhotra exposing problems with the Covid vaccines):
The ONS even stated the ‘healthy vaccinee effect’ as an explanation in a subsequent report after we identified the anomalies in their data. But the notion of the ‘healthy vaccinee’ was contradicted by the NHS guidelines (which required the most critically ill people to be prioritised for the vaccine, not denied it) and we know that even terminally ill patients in care homes were given the vaccine as a priority. Moreover, the observed data could not be theoretically simulated by a ‘healthy vaccinee’ effect.
Another problem with the ONS claim that its data show lower (age-standardised) mortality rates in the vaccinated is that it is based on a subset of the England population which likely massively underestimates the true national proportion of unvaccinated and hence underestimates the mortality rate of the vaccinated. Using the UKHSA and NIMS data on numbers unvaccinated results in higher (age-standardised) mortality rates. In fact, there is increasing evidence now that the vaccinated have the higher mortality rates. And that brings us to a very interesting comment by one of the people – ‘Health Nerd’ (@GidMK on Twitter) – who has been especially vocal in trying to delegitimise our work, and who is the key source of authority for the mutton crew. He, like John Bye, has been outspoken in trying to delegitimise the recent paper by Dr. Aseem Malhotra. In a long Twitter thread he wrote:
So, in contrast to the previously claimed ‘healthy vaccinee’ effect used to explain the non-Covid mortality spikes, the same people are now claiming an ‘unhealthy vaccinee’ effect to explain the higher age-standardised mortality rates of the vaccinated.
Can these people please make up their minds as to whether vaccinees are especially healthy or especially unhealthy?
Dr. Norman Fenton is Professor in Risk Information Management at Queen Mary University of London. This article first appeared on his website.