The latest ONS data on deaths by vaccination status show that of the 5,678 Covid deaths in April and May, 93% or 5,276 were of vaccinated people. Given that the Government’s Coronavirus Dashboard reports that 93% of the over-12 population had a first dose of the vaccine, 87% had a second dose and 70% had a third dose, these real-world data suggest that the vaccinated did no better than the unvaccinated in being protected against death.
Breaking this down by age does not improve the outlook. In the 50-59 age cohort, in April 86% and in May 87% of the deaths were of vaccinated people, compared to 87% of the cohort vaccinated with at least one dose. In the 60-69 cohort, in April 88% and in May 91% of the deaths were of vaccinated people, compared to 91% of the cohort. In the 70-79 cohort, in April 94% and in May 90% of the deaths were of vaccinated people, compared to 92% of the cohort. In the 80-plus cohort, in April and May 94% of the deaths were of vaccinated people, compared to 94% of the cohort. Note that ONS’s definition of a Covid death includes deaths where Covid is mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, not necessarily as the underlying cause.
Many readers will be familiar with the ongoing debate about vaccination statistics and the size of the unvaccinated population. We know how many people have been vaccinated with the first, second, third and fourth doses of vaccine but we don’t know what the population of the U.K. is so we can’t know exactly what percentage of the population the vaccinated represent. However, we can have a pretty good guess. Figure 1 is taken from the Covid dashboard and shows that just over 90% of the population had a first dose, just under 90% had a second dose and just under 70% had a third dose.
Of course, vaccine take-up varies greatly with age and vaccine efficacy (or lack of efficacy) depends on how many doses you’ve had and when you had your last dose.
Figure 2 shows vaccine uptake for the first three rounds of vaccine, though not the spring second booster campaign among over-75s. On the right hand side of the chart I’ve drawn the 90%, 80% and 70% lines in red to make reading easier. I’ve then written in red the age cohorts that fall in various percentage tranches. Broadly speaking, 90% of people over the age of 70 have had all three doses whereas, if you look at the 50-59 year-olds you’ll see that only about 75% have gone on to have the booster dose.
I’ve then inserted a table showing the approximate uptake of the various vaccine doses by age cohort that will then be used to compare vaccine uptake to the death data.
I should add that this level of accuracy is somewhat spurious and overstates the percentage of the various age cohorts that have taken up the vaccines. There’s been quite a lot of controversy about the percentage take up of vaccine due to the mystery surrounding the U.K.’s population. The problem was first addressed by Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, who brought up the complications around the NIMS and ONS datasets; I wrote a piece taking issue with some of his findings here. Professor Norman Fenton also covered this in his recent critical review of the BBC’s “Unvaccinated”. I won’t revisit the debate here except to say that I think most would agree that the estimates for the proportion of people vaccinated by age group tend to be a bit overstated, so let’s simply regard them as a ceiling.
It’s perhaps also worth noting that Professor Fenton has also criticised the ONS data for undercounting Covid deaths, but, as with the percentage of vaccine uptake, I’m going to use the ONS’s figures as that is what the Government has published.
The ONS published “Deaths by vaccination status, England” on July 6th. I, along with many others had been complaining that since the end of March there had been no raw data released showing deaths by vaccination status. It was a pleasant surprise to me that this new report made good this shortfall and included deaths by vaccination status for April and May.
Figure 3 shows the count of Covid deaths by vaccination status for April and May 2022. In April there were 4,119 Covid deaths, of which 3,837 were of people vaccinated with at least one dose, that’s 93% of the total. In May, 1,559 Covid deaths were recorded, 1,439 of which were of vaccinated people, that’s 92% of the total. These figures are in line with the proportion of deaths amongst the vaccinated being shown in the UKHSA data up to the point when the data stopped being published at the end of March. The final report can be found here, with the real-world data found in tables 12 and 13, which show that the proportion of deaths by vaccination status were much the same then as in April and May.
The maximum percentage of the population vaccinated is just over 90%, yet the percentage of deaths in April and May was also over 90%. Why is this important? Because, what’s always needed in any experiment is a ‘control group’, a group of people who didn’t participate in the experimental drug, vaccine or whatever was the subject of the study. If the vaccines are effective in preventing deaths you’d expect to see a higher rate of fatalities among the people who didn’t take the vaccines. But we don’t.
Let’s go into a little more detail. Around 99% of the deaths in April and May occurred in the over-50s so I’ll only look at these older age groups.
In the 50-59 age cohort there were 105 deaths in April and 47 in May. In April 86% and in May 87% of the deaths were of vaccinated people. The third column in grey shows the estimated percentage of people in this age cohort who had either no vaccine or the various doses. The unvaccinated do not appear to have suffered disproportionately to the vaccinated. While at least 13% of this cohort have never had any vaccine dose at all, they accounted for less than 14% of the deaths in April and May.
Figure 5 shows that it’s the same story in the 60-69 year-old cohort. In April there were 284 deaths of which 250 or 88% were of vaccinated people. In May 106 of the 117 deaths or 91% were vaccinated. The proportion of deaths was in line with the proportion of the vaccinated in that age group. If the vaccines had no effect this is exactly what you’d expect to see.
Figure 6 tells the same story for the over 70s: deaths from Covid are proportionately the same for the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. About 91% are vaccinated and over 90% of deaths were among the vaccinated.
And finally, figure 7 shows the situation for the 80+ cohort. In this age cohort, just about everyone who had the first dose turned up for their second and third dose and quite probably their fourth dose too, but it doesn’t seem to have made much difference to the outcome. Again, it’s perfectly clear that with 94% of the deaths occurring amongst the vaccinated, the 6% unvaccinated are proportionately no more at risk that the vaccinated.
Similar findings were reported in the Daily Sceptic recently for Canada and the Netherlands so this isn’t British exceptionalism.
Why might this be? Waning efficacy perhaps. However, they’ve been at this level for some months, suggesting that isn’t the whole story. Maybe the unvaccinated are a self-selecting group who are disproportionately healthy or have been previously infected – though if so that would need to be shown not assumed. Whatever the reason, the ONS data clearly raise important questions that need addressing. They seem to confirm that in the real world, regardless of how many doses of vaccines someone may have, it makes absolutely no difference to the likelihood that they may die from Covid.
Postscript: It has been pointed out that some experts have warned about using raw counts, like the number of COVID-19 infections and deaths among the vaccinated versus the unvaccinated, to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of the vaccines. According to a November 2021 FactCheck article, “If the large majority of a population is vaccinated, it’s not surprising if most deaths are among the vaccinated… It’s simply math.” Moreover, the U.K. Health Security Agency said in its July 7th, 2022 report that for people aged 50 and over, COVID-19 vaccines were 47% effective against COVID-19 deaths 25 weeks or more after the second dose, and 87& effective 10 weeks or more after a third dose.
In Nick Rendell’s defence, his article was expressly looking at the death rate compared to the vaccination rate in the population, so the FactCheck article is not relevant. The point being made in his article is that the proportion of deaths in the vaccinated is higher than the proportion of the population that is vaccinated (and this applies to each age group so is not just a result of older people being more likely to be vaccinated). Notwithstanding the UKHSA’s data on the efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccines, this doesn’t change the fact that the vaccinated groups are not dying with Covid at a lower rate (per population) than the unvaccinated, according to the ONS data. True, the ONS warns against interpreting its data to measure the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines, stating: “The [age-standardised mortality rates] are not equivalent to vaccine effectiveness and both the COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 ASMRs can be affected by other various factors, such as health status and changes in mortality rates over the year.” Nick Rendell mentions these potentially confounding factors in his article, but nevertheless we believe that looking at differential rates of outcomes by vaccination status is a valid way to measure vaccine effectiveness.
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Blanc! C’mon you’re messing with us Amanda.
A man da Blanc
Not just the surname. Using slang “da” as “the”.
Very good indeed!
The Aviva website has Diversity, Equity and Inclusion rather than Equality. This is quite different and could be abused on an individual basis.
…which is the whole point.
Equity means fair. Although in progressive-speak it has some other bovine fæces meaning.
Wokism aka political correctness is the eradication of Judeo-Christian values and culture from society.
It defines the wicked, those who hate God’s laws.
Sheep and goats.
I don’t know about ‘diversity, but ‘perversity’ seems to be trending these days.
The Blanc creature and her pitiful firm deserve to suffer the same fate as Alison Rose and Natwest. I really hope the punters using Aviva strip it of business.
Generously seconded.
And isn’t she making that same Masonic hand gesture that Angela Merkel used to make? Actually I don’t buy into over-analyzing gestures and symbols and thinking they have some sort of satanic meaning or anything like that. Many people do though. But I tend to think, at least with women, when they don’t have a handbag and they can’t fidget they’re at a loss for something to do with their hands. Men fiddle with their cuffs don’t they? Or do a Napoleon impression if you’re that daft Mr Markle.
I hadn’t spotted that Mogs. Actually i don’t discount some of the hand movement malarkey and there is an awful lot of messaging behind non-verbal communication.
And take it where?
It is disgusting and you have to ask yourself why they’re doing it and it isn’t just post-Christian God-shaped hole liberalism. Self-hatred is an incoherent position and any thinking person would never admit to it but it does seep in and pretends to be something else. The attack on the strong male is very easy to understand.It is a pernicious force that afflicts people to such an extent that for them it is just a part of the wallpaper or ideology. Every thinking person knows that the ultimate being is a black transgender lesbian hermaphrodite. Nietzsche talked about the danger of the transvaluation of values in Christian teaching and I think he was ahead of his time in seeing where it would lead. The enemy sees these weak spots straightaway and there are people fighting us who are several levels or dimensions in advance of our understanding of the attack. But I suppose things are getting better in that regard.
Completely off topic but what has happpened to the pro Israel items.
Also, what about Ukraine winning, lol, Mr. Rons.
Perhaps the Israeli response is beginning to look unjustifiable to some of the previously enthusiastic supporters.
“Aviva” formerly Norwich Union, embraced this social engineering creed for their own gain in the early 2000’s. ( 2002 to be exact ) They conspired with the government to push far beyond their commercial remit for ‘continuous insurance cover’ and the MID and other measures. At the time I instructed my company to withdraw all insurance products from them and place them elsewhere. I would not touch them on principle.
This Ms Blanc is just the latest in a long line of corporate talking heads who fail to recognise that companies and people pay for well delivered products. Why is it that she even looks like the piece of work from NatWest.
“Why is it that she even looks like the piece of work from NatWest.”
My first thoughts also. Why is it the women in these positions and committing these crimes always seem to be the ones men would pass on?
It’s cloning isn’t it?
Yes. They’re all turned out by a secret factory “somewhere near Biggleswade”!
True, they all look like a cross between Sturgeon and Merkel.
For one thing its easier – its easier to walk wround with bad posture and shoulders unbefitting a man. Just like its easier to persue the life of a dimwit then to push yourself. But I don’t think that that this has its origin in the weakness of the will. There is a confluence of things. Even things that might not immediately srping to mind like global dimming. Sunlight is very important for testosterone. There was a big drop off from 1988-1997 in terms of male energy. And many men think that the weakness they feel is just a result of age. It really isn’t an age thing. And that’s before you even get on to all the toxins in the air and food and water having a similar effect. And if you don’t know about it you would never even bother to address it. And I bet you don’t get lessons on the BBC in how to increase your testosterone. You have to have the balls to dediscover your balls.
It is just about hatred of white people and the desire to destroy white civilisation – a destruction which is progressing very well indeed. We just didn’t breed enough and were not ruthless enough, lacked self-belief. I wonder what will happen on Planet Earth. It could have been so good.
Yep, evidence of that in this short clip. The slow but constant creep of Islamization so as to eclipse the indigenous folk and develop a majority, thereafter a caliphate. Well it’s already happened in many places hasn’t it, but like somebody says in the comments, if they want Sharia law as opposed to abide by the existing laws of the land, then why the hell don’t they move to a majority Muslim country? Back to the fundamentals of their ideology for the answers, I guess, which they aren’t exactly backwards in coming forwards about sharing with all and sundry.
https://twitter.com/nirbhaysirohi/status/1734246825694200184
Because majority Muslim countries are mainly either failed or poor states I guess. As our states will become, eventually – 50 or 100 years, or maybe sooner – a combination of colonisation, self-hatred, “wokeness” that denies reality and true science. Very sad.
Well this appears to be progress that Wilders has made recently, though we’ll see how this translates into real life all in good time I suppose;
”The Netherlands will have the option to deviate from strict adherence to European asylum and migration policies, following a decision by the House of Representatives on Wednesday. Geert Wilders, leader of the PVV party, hails this as a “historic motion.”
The motion, submitted by PVV, NSC, BBB, and VVD on Tuesday, advocates for an opt-out arrangement similar to Denmark’s, which has effectively managed mass immigration for two decades. The opt-out scheme allows a Member State to withdraw from a specific area of EU policy if it chooses not to participate, the Dutch press reported.
Denmark’s strict migration policy includes limited access to benefits and social services for newcomers, tightened conditions for family reunification, restricted labor market access for those lacking Danish language skills, and asylum seekers having to fund their own shelter.”
https://www.voiceofeurope.com/netherlands-parliament-approves-historic-motion-to-opt-out-of-eu-asylum-and-migration-policy/
Thanks
Good to hear some positive news for a change
Let’s hope it is the start of something rather than too little too late
I don’t see much hope for the UK
Funny how they all apparently want to come here to be “free”, but want to bring the tyranny they are supposedly fleeing from with them.
You can take the wholesale destruction of the white races as a given just by looking at birth rates and of course these occupy an exponential curve. That battle is lost in terms of demographics. Even more so because the more intelligent the white person the less likely they are to breed. Going into the future it will be about establishing enclaves and ghettos. But it helps if we have something that unites us and so we need to spread the Christian mythos. Not some superifical crap that most people will reject but a true understanding of the Christ impulse, the power behind the sun. I only say this because this is our last hope. We do still have it but it takes an energy to ignite it.
The dotage of the baby boomers represents a shift and I don’t attack them for their cosstetedness and their dotage and softness. I’m sure we would all have become that soft in that environment. But the new young men are like malleable men of steel because they know that they have no hope at all saving a true fight. If you ever feel tired or jaded then just spend some time around a young person. I thought I was fired up as a teenager but these people are next level.
All you have to do as a man is type into Google ‘supplements herbs testosterone’. If you cared about it you wouldn’t need me to tell you about it, Honestly those without the gumption you are well and truly screwed. There will be no contimuing life of comfort you will be dragged out like in the worst excesses of Maoisn. I am just giving you prior warning. As T S Eliot said, thou shall not deny the body
There is no passive position where you just sit back like a boo0mer and watch television. You either get with it or you are removed. This is not a future I desire I am just telling you what it will be.
A white man wouldn’t get away with a similar statement.
If it’s taken this for anybody to realise what has been going on for decades they’re thick enough to be looking forward to their next booster.
Is this the explanation for the Fermi Paradox?
https://youtu.be/iceLm_mUvRo?si=svvBwosgccmdVr9W
Forty palm trees destroyed by the council in Torquay.
Why?
I know it’s likely to be an unpopular view, but it’s just possible that she has a point. A few years ago, when Aviva was known as Norwich Union, its chairman George Paul was also my father’s boss.
At a management conference, the audience was appalled to hear their chairman explain that the company’s recent poor performance could be corrected if only they recruited more boys from his old school, Harrow! During the lunch break, one of his close aides clearly had a word in George’s ear with the result that he apologised for any misunderstanding and explained that he’d meant to say “Eton and Harrow”!
She’s probably still got a number of these idiots still on the books!
Odd feeling reading the linked Telegraph article with the advertising videos running just above and/or below one’s line of vision – featuring the usual absurdly idealised scenes in which glowingly healthy, reassuringly affluent racial groups together demonstrate the perfect harmony of their unusually successful social lives. It seems to be impossible for institutions such as the Daily Telegraph to avoid supporting such obviously woke propaganda, doesn’t it. Amanda Blanc, in the unlikely event that she reads the Telegraph, might be put out by the critical import of the article, but will be reassured by the Telegraph’s evident inability to take a principled stance, one way or the other.
Make no mistake, diversity means ——Less White People. –All part of the globalist reset. I don’t think this is what Luther King had in mind when he suggested we should all be judged by the content of our character rather than the colour of our skin. ——Apparently that is exactly how we are now to be judged though according to the inclusion and diversity nonsense.—— And it is to start with white people judging themselves by checking their “privilege”.
She looks rather white. I hope she will be giving up her position to someone more “diverse” as soon as possible. Or is it OK because she’s female? If she changes her surname to “Noir” perhaps she could identify as black?
White people discriminating against other white people – surely at this point the only way is up?
Let’s see how they cope if they get rid of all their non-diverse customers.
Since racial discrimination is against the law in the UK, when does Blankety Blanc go on trial?
“Non-diverse”? “White males”? How is a “white male” not diverse?
Perhaps Amanda Blanc is using an identity marxist definition of “diverse” based on the belief that identity is the most important construct for understanding difference, and what it means to be a “white and male” identity? So to be a “diverse, white male”, is to have an intersectional understanding of the white male position in an identity marxist intersectional hierarchy of power and privilege, AKA a hierarchy of oppressor/oppressed.
Being “diverse” is therefore having a woke marxist critical consciousness of one’s position in a power structure of oppressor/oppressed. A “white male” is “diverse” when they have been ‘awokened’ – when they have a critical consciousness of what it means to be white and male – to be conscious of their oppressor status.
This, then, is *the* metric for deciding the hiring of senior white males. And the person who decides if they have this critical consciousness, is the Political Commissar or “expert” in the world view of ‘woke identity marxism’. And that would be Aviva’s Chief Executive, in this case.
A white male is not diverse because diversity is about getting rid of white people. Less White people is the goal. Whether that is in the workplace, in sport, in TV adverts, in newsreaders, in drama (Bridgerton) and in the country. Whiteness is “The Original SIn”