Back in March, I wrote a post noting that excess mortality data from Europe and Israel were hard to reconcile with claims of 90% vaccine effectiveness against death. However, I also noted that some countries data were consistent with very high vaccine effectiveness against death.
The two examples I gave were Australia and Iceland – both countries with very high vaccination rates. By the end of 2021, each country had double-vaccinated 77% of its population, compared to only 70% in the U.K. and only 63% in the U.S. (see below).
At the time I wrote the post, Iceland had only seen a minor uptick in excess mortality, while Australia had not seen any at all – despite both countries experiencing major outbreaks in the winter/spring of 2022. If countries like Germany, the Netherlands and Israel had seen deadly post-vaccination waves, why hadn’t Iceland and Australia? That was the puzzle.
It appears that ‘puzzle’ is now solved – we just needed to wait for more data. The latest figures from Iceland and Australia show sizeable upticks in excess mortality. First, let’s look at Iceland:
After bouncing around the zero mark for the first two years of the pandemic, excess mortality jumped to 74% in the first week of March. And it has now been above zero for eleven of the last thirteen weeks. Next, let’s consider Australia:
Over the first two years of the pandemic, excess morality averaged roughly zero – dipping lower in the summer and rising higher in the winter. Yet since the start of October, it has been consistently positive, jumping to 26% in the third week of January.
It should be noted: these upticks in excess mortality are not as large as those seen in European countries during 2020 and 2021.
However, they indicate that even very high vaccination rates are not sufficient to prevent mortality from rising when there’s a major outbreak. And they cast further doubt on claims that the vaccines are 90% effective against death. If they were 90% effective against death, excess mortality should hardly have risen at all in Iceland and Australia.
Given that 77% of the entire population was double vaccinated before the latest outbreaks began (and that’s the entire population, not just over 16s), you’d have to believe that excess mortality would have been many, many times higher in the absence of vaccination to rescue the claim of 90% effectiveness against death.
What’s probably true instead is that the vaccines do reduce mortality from Covid – but not by 90%.
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excess morality (sic) averaged roughly zero ??
Haha: if only!
How about it’s the “vaccines” that are both causing the “new waves” post vaccination AND are responsible for the excess mortality?
3 minutes from preparation to job done!!
Everything else you have read, or heard, is totally irrelevant – how simple is that?
Covid Crusher: Mix one heaped teaspoon of Iodine table salt in a mug of warm clean water, cup a hand and sniff or snort the entire mugful up your nose, spitting out anything which comes down into your mouth. If sore, then you have a virus, so continue morning noon and night, or more often if you want, until the soreness goes away (2-3 minutes) then blow out your nose and flush away, washing your hands afterwards, until when you do my simple cure, you don’t have any soreness at all, when you flush – job done. Also swallow a couple of mouthfuls of salt water and if you have burning in your lungs, salt killing virus and pneumonia, there too.
My simple salt water cure, kills all Coronaviruses and viruses, as soon as you think you have an infection, or while self isolating, before the viruses mutate into the disease in your head and body, for which there is no cure – that is, after you have been out shopping, or mixing with people with potentially, Omicron… Read more »
“Vaccine efficacy is generally reported as a relative risk reduction (RRR). It uses the relative risk (RR)—ie, the ratio of attack rates with and without a vaccine—which is expressed as 1–RR. Ranking by reported efficacy gives relative risk reductions of 95% for the Pfizer–BioNTech, 94% for the Moderna–NIH, 91% for the Gamaleya, 67% for the J&J, and 67% for the AstraZeneca–Oxford vaccines.
“However, RRR should be seen against the background risk of being infected and becoming ill with COVID-19, which varies between populations and over time. Although the RRR considers only participants who could benefit from the vaccine, the absolute risk reduction (ARR), which is the difference between attack rates with and without a vaccine, considers the whole population. ARRs tend to be ignored because they give a much less impressive effect size than RRRs: 1·3% for the AstraZeneca–Oxford, 1·2% for the Moderna–NIH, 1·2% for the J&J, 0·93% for the Gamaleya, and 0·84% for the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccines.”
The Lancet Study
Doctors for COVID Ethics
On The accompanying chart:
Pfizer/BioNtech RRR 95.03% ARR From Jab 0.84%
Moderna (NIH) RRR 94.08% ARR 1.24% From Jab
Janssen RRR 66.62% ARR 1.19% From Jab
Astrazeneca/ Oxford RRR 66.84% ARR 1.28% From Jab
The Lancet
5) show 93% of people who… Read more »
a genuine vaccine against a pandemic respiratory virus would result in a dramatic fall in the untreated pandemic’s elevated all cause mortality … these fraudulent covid injections, however, do the opposite – they increase all cause mortality, which indicates these injections are in reality bioweapons intended to cause illness and death
This article says vaccines reduce mortality from Covid but not by 95%- it’s actually more like 1% at best and for a short time only. Also the UK vaccine surveillance reports confirm a much greater chance of ending up in hospital and dying after dose 3… Regardless even if correct, it seems that being jabbed increases the incidence of other serious illnesses and deaths from other causes. So what’s it to be? Reduce your chances of going to hospital from Covid (and most people are not seriously ill or hospitalised anyway) v increase your chances of a blood clot, stroke, heart problems, autoimmune illness, cancer or prions disease etc. It isn’t Rocket Science is it.
This article is attempting to whitewash these totally fraudulent covid injections. We’re all still waiting for the alleged SARS-Cov2 virus to be isolated with intent to fulfil Koch’s and Rivers’ Postulates.
none so blind as those that will not see….
the vaccines do reduce mortality from covid?
so does a bullet in the head….
Correlation is not causation. The reality is that, because of all the variables involved, it is impossibleto prove whether the frankenjabs have saved any lives at all, while undoubtedly having killed and injured many thousands of people.
The only “vaccine” that appears to have signficantly reduced mortality from COVID is the Omnicron variant, which has exposed the uselessness of the gene therapy injections – and (assuming it doesn’t morph into something more deadly) looks like bringing this giant ponzi scheme it to a belated end.
There’s an interesting table in Our World In Data that shows relative change in excess mortality, country by country, for the period 5 Jan 2020 to April 21 2022, using the 5-year average as a baseline. If you click on the column header for Absolute Change and sort for descending order, you see some interesting figures.
Considering the horror stories about UK covid deaths for the last two years, one might be surprised to see that we outperformed (had lower change in excess deaths than) every European country except for Sweden, Cyprus and Poland.
Interesting that it has not been reported in our ‘enjoying-the-pandemic’ MSM?
Amusingly, Krankie’s lockdown/mask-up Scotland did worse than the UK average by some margin…
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-average-baseline?tab=table&country=GTM~PRT~GBR~DEU~FRA~GRC~ISR~SWE~ITA~USA~RUS~NZL~AUS
it does make me wonder with all these jabs how this has impacted employment and some businesses being short staffed due to sickness etc. You do tend to see some jobs struggling to hire which should be impossible considering there are many millions needing work, does make you wonder.
https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/asia/2022/05/03/india-supreme-court-overturns-mandatory-covid-19-vaccination-policy/
India’s top court on Monday ruled that no person can be forced to get vaccinated and the constitution gives everyone the right to refuse vaccination in a milestone judgement on the country’s Covid-19 policy.
The Supreme Court directed Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government to publish reports on adverse effects caused by vaccines on a publicly accessible system.
It might be added here that in Iceland only a third of the excess mortality might possibly be explained by Covid, based on the number of deaths with Covid in this period.
Can we please get that 95% effective number into context.
It invites people to infer that vaccinated you run a risk of only 5% of getting CoVid – that sounds good doesn’t it? Except if it were a vaccine (that is an inoculum which gives immunity to a specific disease caused by a specific pathogen) then risk of getting CoVid would be near zero.
The question to ask is what is the risk of getting CoVid unvaccinated. According to Pfizer it is 0.88% – that is the number of symptomatic subjects who tested PCR positive in the placebo group divided by the number in the group x 100.
0.88% then is the Absolute Risk.
So unvaccinated risk is less than 1%, vaccinated risk is 5% – that can’t be right can it?
The risk of getting CoVid in the group with active ingredient was 0.04%.
So subtracting 0.04% from 0.88% = 0.84% – this is the Absolute Risk Reduction.
0.84% is 95% of 0.88%, so the Relative Risk Reduction = 95%.
In fact the absolute ‘effectiveness’ of the vaccine is less than 1% which doesn’t sound as good as 95% particularly when the risk without vaccination is less than 1%.
… Read more »
Question……are all these assumptions based on some kind of modeling?
If so surely the fact that millions of people who would never have been hospitalised or would not have died from the infection, but we’re vaccinated anyway, would severely skew the findings?
If I vaccinate a hundred people knowing only one of them will actually die from the disease, and one does die…do I call that vaccine effective?
I appreciate I might well be missing something?
Deliberate depopulation looks more and more like an explanation with every passing day.
Yes …with every passing day and new revelations of their dark plans to silence us and screw (or inject) us into the ground.
I can’t make any other explanation fit. It’s way beyond malfeasance or the pursuit of profit. It looks like a deliberate attempt to weakening and thin the species.
It may be that motives are mixed. For some, the pursuit of profit with complete contempt for human life would suffice.
But there is evidence that there are those who believe the world’s population needs to be reduced; that they are serious about it; and that they are emotionally, financially and politically capable of carrying their ideas into effect.
Remember the days when we first read Mike Yeadon’s posts and thought he might have lost it a bit and was over egging the pudding slightly?
The figures confirm the impression many of us have noted: more people we know dying. Of those I know or have heard about from those close to them, not one died of or even with Covid. It’s heart issues, again and again.
Heard on BBC Wales this morning they’re going to raise awareness of how to spot heart issues with Athletes and people who do intense exercises.
How dumb do they think we are.
You beat me to it. Sport, something which for everyone is a healthy thing, is now being demonised because they dare not even consider the possibility that it is the injected athletes with the heart problems.
wonder if the study they trumpet has 2 classes of athletes – jabbed and unjabbed? – Bet it doesn’t!
“Overstated”?
Just like the impact of nuclear weapons is now ‘over-rated then?
You must be joking? THATS the conclusion you come to?
You still think it’s Covid causing the excess deaths.
”Neo, you think that’s air you’re breathing?”
On 28 April, the Australian Bureau of Statistics realeased its all-cause mortality statistics for January 2022 which found that, in Australia, all-cause deaths were 22.1% higher than the historical average (15,805 deaths in January, some 2,865 higher than the historical January baseline average). The ABS claims that Covid deaths were the second leading cause of death (after cancer).
In Australia, 89% of the entire population aged five and over are double jabbed and 65% of people aged 16 and over are triple jabbed so how come Covid is now the second most common cause of death in Australia, given the religious embrace of the miracle Pharma juice that was supposed to stop all the Covid mortality mayhem?
There are two possible interpretations:
(a) If we take the ‘Covid deaths’ figures at face value, that clearly means that the vaxxes don’t work and are, in fact, increasing the susceptibility to death by Covid.
(b) If we are sceptical of the Covid deaths data (as we should be given that the ABS religiously adheres to the WHO’s inflationary definition for a Covid death) then clearly something else is causing deaths to spike. Wonder what that could be, as Australia’s booster program rolled out from… Read more »
That country has gone off the deep end.
A good number of our politicians have – thank God, not all of them. I hope those who’ve had the guts to stand up against this rubbish, in the face of the sneers of the media, are rewarded at the election next Saturday.
The worst two (I think G6 and Phil would agree) have been the Premiers of Victoria and Western Australia – egos swollen by unusually large majorities in their last state elections.
AHPRA has effectively silenced an entire profession. I know doctors who are afraid, with good reason, that if they share their doubts and concerns with patients they will be reported by those who choose to inform.
It should not be forgotten that those very high rates of “vaccination” have been produced by mandates, or the fear of mandates.
Relatives and friends who were deeply suspicious of the jabs and swore they would never have them found themselves forced to reconsider, as they faced unemployment. One chose to lose his job – with serious consequences; others angrily submitted. Those who did, do not want to talk about the jabs. They just hope they’ll be okay.
Another friend submitted after what she described as “bullying” from her boss and the fear that she would lose her job. She collapsed after the second shot with heart issues (an erratic ECG). In the end, her workplace did not mandate the injections.
That last para is tragic.
Pity we won’t have AHPRA on the ballot papers this Saturday, Phil. I’d love to see them voted out of existence.
Have you heard about this?
A council in Western Australia will launch legal action against state vaccination mandates introduced by Premier Mark McGowan’s government.
The Port Hedland Council is aiming to overturn rules that require about 75 per cent of Western Australia to be vaccinated if they want to remain employed.
Bravo to Port Hedland, doubtless responding to the concerns of the local community.
For those who don’t know, Port Hedland is a very important mining centre – and those involved in WA’s mining industry are amongst those who have been mandated.
The suffering inflicted by these mandates, wherever they are, is terrible: families divided, breadwinners anguished.
As for AHPRA, which implements registration and accreditation for health practitioners throughout Australia, they have caused great distress to good and caring people.
There have been a few post-vax deaths in the mining industry. So far none occurred while the victim was operating heavy machinery – I’d call that luck rather than good management.
I saw footage of a public meeting held in the Busselton area, where a lot of FIFO workers live.
Busselton special electors meeting Feb 21 2022 – newsR VIDEO
So many there knew of people with vax injuries of some description.
Thanks Alt, I’ll have a look at that.
I’m trying to get another Lockdownunder Update ready before voting day, but Masky is such a rich source of material…
Have a look at this! From just two years ago. When the Liberal suggested lockdown…
https://twitter.com/hashtagyouwish/status/1487212644696084482
Interesting take by NYT on how Australia was a shining light in its actions compared to the USA. Prepping us all for more of the same?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/15/world/australia/covid-deaths.html
Bugger, it’s paywalled!
The results of their own trials, the source of the 95% effectiveness claims, was calculated on a relative risk reduction, if you use their own numbers, the absolute risk reduction was 0.84%.
So yeah, the 95% effective claim was always overstated.
By the time those numbers came out, I’d read the scientific papers on the original SARs mRNA vaccine research, the one where all the humanized mice died from multiple organ failure seemed pertinant enough to avoid the risk all together. That provided enough time to research further, by which time it became clear the new mRNA vax produced cytotoxic spike protein, thanks but no thanks.
7 funerals (5 via zoom) and many horror stories from my family and friends later, you couldn’t pay me enough to take the deaths jabs, I’d rather risk sitting it out in gaol. In a just world, it’s a situation those pushing the vaccines should be facing right about now.
The 95% effectiveness claim from their trials was the manipulated claim. The data release from early this month showed that the real RRR effectiveness against infection was 12% for 7 days! This then dropped to below 1% so ARR was 0.01%
What was the effectiveness based on? Trial data.
Pfizer managed to reduce the covid deaths from 2 to 1 with the jab in the trial. Statistically irrelevant in a trial of 40k. They claimed this as being 100% effective. They also managed to induce more overall mortality and a 5x increase in heart related deaths. I have seen the data from an ivermectin trial which deaths were 9 in placebo and 3 in ivermectin arm. This was deemed to be statitically irrelevant.
Lots of tricks have been used. Misattributing vaccine deaths into the unjabbed non covid deaths stats by using the 2-3 week before classified as jabbed (same with ‘cases’). Delaying death reporting and then using the vaccine uptake stats at point of death reporting and not at point of infection. This can massively affect rates comparisons. Consistently underestimating the unjabbed population which will have a big effect on rates in unjabbed. They have no idea how many people are really in the country. I would not be suprised if they are overestimating the jabbed pop as well (such as including people who never turned up).
All cause mortality data analysis (eg by Fenton) has shown no statistically relevant… Read more »
Why would you think that’s probable? Because Pfizer said so?
The pattern appears to be the same in every country:
Correlation is not causation, and post hoc does not mean propter hoc, but that’s a hell of a lot of correlation and post hoccing to explain away.
UKHSA data consistently showed lower rates of vaccinated people dying from covid. It is far from perfect evidence but it’s not simple to rebut it either.
A part of that is the artefact of people who contracted Covid within 14 days of the jab being counted as unvaccinated. It’s well established that the immune system is somewhat suppressed immediately after the jab, so this is probably a significant number of sick people who wouldn’t have been sick without the jab and who are then contributing to the stats for unvaccinated hospitalisation.
Regardless of that, the only true measure of impact is excess mortality. It matters little if the jab protects you from Covid if it makes you equally or more likely to die from something else in the process.
Time and again we see a direct correlation between vaccine uptake and excess mortality. Something smells bad, and in a sane world a lot more would be being done to understand what it is that stinks.
Yep. As long as it’s not properly looked at those in power and influence can keep telling themselves there’s no problem.
Doesn’t/didn’t the UKHSA data show that one jab gave better protection than none, but the second jab gave little better protection than being unvaccinated, and the third jab was the charm, with people more likely to end up in hospital or dying than the rest?
Certainly a not-very-reassuring mixed bag. I believe the death effectiveness of the (strongly recommended) triple jab only turned negative just as they pulled the stats.
I still find the claim that the vaxx does anything of much use difficult to substantiate. As Amanuensis has pointed out several times, any data looking at VE tend to end at or well before 60 days, whereas it is increasingly looking like whatever protection the vaxx might provide, merely seems to dampen symptoms rather than eliminate the virus (as appears to also be the case with pfisser’s paxlovid).
In addition, a point never mentioned, is the simple fact that as time went on, health care providers learned better what worked and what did not. I believe the use of standard steroids (initially advised against, oddly enough) was a game changer, as was the realisation that covid was also a blood disease. In NL in 2021 more people were kept out of hospital, not because there were fewer serious patients, but because a protocol had been set up to treat the seriously ill at home through their GPs/district nurses with steroids, oxygen and telemonitoring. This was a protocol not used in the first wave. Similar treatments and protocols must have been used in other countries around the same time, so it is disingenuous to categorically claim it was the vaxx… Read more »
“because a protocol had been set up to treat the seriously ill at home through their GPs/district nurses with steroids, oxygen and telemonitoring”
Not in the UK.
I was on the phone daily asking for medication for my OH, and nothing was available for at-home treatment, e.g. dexamethasone. There were a few drugs available, but only in the very early stages of infection, when the symptoms weren’t that severe. Dexamethasone, oxygen, antibiotics were only available in hospital, when someone is seriously ill and in danger of dying. Until that point nothing except paracetamol, and nothing that would keep someone out of hospital.
“Gove to tackle Russian dirty money” on Talk TV. That’s fine, then can we tackle western oligarchs, like the massive transfer of wealth from taxpayers to Big Pharma with their gene editing jabs
Well don’t expect Gove to do it: he takes his orders from the Americans right now.
Why not just ALL dirty money?
Nope London’s unaffordable housing (and thus establishment benefits) depends on ignoring money laundering.
Funny how it was entirely acceptable dirty money until the Ukraine thing.
Its rather more than that though, isn’t it? The excess mortality rises after vaccination. In all cases. I think there might be a different conclusion to draw than that the vaccine is simply ineffective.
“What’s probably true instead is that the vaccines do reduce mortality from Covid – but not by 95%.”
Hang on a minute. What the facts show is entirely consistent with the concepts of vaccines being very effective against covid deaths, but also creating non-covid deaths as well, from reactions to the vaccines themselves, and perhaps by making people more likely to catch other respiratory viruses too. Now I’m not saying the vaccines are necessarily 95% effective, but the evidence you’ve shown doesn’t contradict that possibility. On the evidence given vaccines could be saving covid patients lives, but killing lots of others who would otherwise have survived in the absence of a vaccine. The facts of excess all cause mortality deaths AND high vaccine effectiveness against covid deaths are not mutually exclusive.
Or Jabs merely mask SARS2 symptoms and raise the risk of death.
The data seem to suggest that, even if they do reduce the likelihood of death (which for most age cohorts is astonishingly low) the later suppression of natural immunity means a greater likelihood of getting covid. For those to whom it’ll likely be fatal, the old and vulnerable, that’s not a good feature. And it does make a nonsense of the 95% effective shtick.
Gain-of-function (GOF) research involves experimentation that aims or is expected to (and/or, perhaps, actually does) increase the transmissibility and/or virulence of pathogens. Such research, when conducted by responsible scientists, usually aims to improve understanding of disease causing agents, their interaction with human hosts, and/or their potential to cause pandemics.
And when these enhanced pathogens escape from the labs, they have all the potential for causing a pandemic that would not otherwise have happened.
There is not good reason for the gain-of-function research. It’s impossible to predict what natural pathogens will suddenly become dangerous, as there are billions of them, mutating all the time.
The research is dangerous and highly irresponsible. They’re nothing more than bioweapons that are being developed, with the aim of wiping out or severely reducing populations.
They’re of the same level of research as using beagles, with their vocalcords removed so they can’t vocalise their pain, to see how many sandflies it takes to kill them and how quickly. Also being funded by a certain Dr.Fauci.
There does seem to be something going on in Asia which is mainly highly vaccinated. South Korea is now seeing a surge in all cause mortality of 29%, along with Singapore which hit 31% at the end of last year.
Japan which saw minus excess deaths before vaccines were introduced is suddenly showing a increase of 9%.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-projected-baseline?country=~KOR
The ‘something’ likely is, (according to immunologists) vaccine induced immunosuppression, also known as VAIDS. Perhaps the mRNA gene concoction (‘vaccine’) may have f’d up many of the vaxxed’s immune systems so they cannot effectively fight pathogens. Ironically, some pathogens could be covid variant breakouts from the enormous selection pressure the mass vaccination campaign has induced. Someone should ouija board Mary Shelley.
If a surgeon decides to remove a patient’s right leg after discovering that the patient has contracted athlete’s foot, no doubt he will be delighted to be able to record an operational success. What will not be recorded is the deleterious effect on the rest of the patient’s life.
Similarly, any ‘covid’ injection (I refuse to use the word ‘vaccination’) may well have some trifling effect on any variation of any seasonal respiratory disease that is floating about but little is said about probable long term inhibited immune response to other infections, for example.
I only ever refer to the ‘lethal injection’. It tends to shut people up.
The analogy applies equally to the lockdown and mask up policy – does more harm than good.
For reasons unknown but not hard to figure, the jab was heralded as a miracle cure by the politicians when it appears to be not much different to the flu jab. In fact, if you actually get covid symptoms, they are very similar to flu and similar to winter 2017/18, 2 winters like that and the UK would have reached the covid numbers
I think we are perhaps just beginning to see what the reasons possible are….Gates /WHO power grab over our bodies and injections for all for life (whoever short that might be!) anyone?