Deaths are running high across Europe this winter, particularly before Omicron came along. But it’s not Covid, at least, half of it isn’t. Between the start of July and mid-December, in nine European countries, around 86,000 more people than usual died. However, Covid deaths numbered around 42,000, leaving around 44,000 above-average deaths from other causes – more than doubling the excess mortality. To put this in context, in the previous winter there were no excess deaths from other causes across these countries – in fact, there were around 5,600 more Covid deaths than excess deaths – meaning the alarming trend is new this season. The question is, why? Why is winter 2021-22 seeing high non-Covid excess mortality when winter 2020-21 didn’t see any at all?
The chart below depicts the trends in Covid mortality and excess mortality (top graph) and the difference between them i.e., non-Covid excess mortality (bottom graph) in the nine countries. The data comes from Our World in Data, and the nine countries – Austria, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland and U.K. – are the nine Western European countries which report excess deaths data weekly and had data available up to mid-December. Between them they have a population of 218,646,258. To ensure the comparison is as accurate as possible the two curves are aligned using the peak of winter deaths in 2020-21, which allows for additional reporting delays in excess mortality. (This is why the excess mortality line is a week shorter than the Covid mortality line, and also why the figures quoted above are rounded as the estimates are not precise.)
The lack of non-Covid excess mortality in winter 2020-21 is clear here, as is its striking rise since July 2021. Other notable features include the high non-Covid excess mortality in spring 2020, which may be a mix of misclassified Covid deaths at a time of minimal testing and lockdown deaths of the frail, and the smallish hump in summer 2020, which may be heat deaths. The mortality displacement (‘dry tinder’) effect is also clear in spring 2021, when non-Covid excess mortality drops very low, which makes the subsequent rise all the more notable.
What could be behind the recent wave of non-Covid excess mortality? It doesn’t appear to be lockdown deaths, as its appearance in autumn 2021 doesn’t coincide with when strict restrictions were in place, while when there were strong restrictions in place in most countries in early 2021, non-Covid excess mortality was low and falling.
Could it be vaccine injuries? Not it seems in a straightforward way, as when the vaccine rollout was in full swing, targeting the oldest cohorts (which dominate all-cause and Covid mortality) during the early months of 2021, excess deaths were falling sharply.
Significantly, however, it does coincide with the Delta Covid wave. The simplest explanation would therefore seem to be that they are misclassified Covid deaths, somehow missed by testing and doctors. However, doubt is cast on that hypothesis by the fact that it didn’t happen in winter 2020-21 (as noted above, there were more Covid deaths than excess deaths that winter), and by the fact that there was more testing in late 2021, not less, making it even less likely that large numbers of Covid deaths were being missed.
What changed between the two seasons? There are two obvious candidates. One was greater exposure of the population to the virus; the other was the vaccine rollout. Both imply an immunological difference in the population. This raises the question: is the immunological state of the population, whether from vaccination or natural immunity, somehow leading to a wave of deaths triggered by exposure to the virus but not caused by detectable infection with the virus? This might seem a strange explanation – can a virus really trigger death without a detectable infection? – but it’s hard to deny it would neatly explain a wave of non-Covid excess deaths coinciding with a Covid wave, particularly one that didn’t occur the previous season.
Can we dig any deeper into causes of death? Looking specifically at England, cause of death data show that between July 4th and November 5th 2021 there were: 3,095 excess deaths involving heart failure, of which 854 could be put down to COVID-19, leaving 2,241 from other causes; 4,460 excess deaths involving ischaemic heart diseases, of which 1,413 could be Covid, leaving 3,047 from other causes; 1,307 excess deaths involving cerebrovascular diseases, of which 489 could be Covid, leaving 818 from other causes; and 8,109 excess deaths involving ‘other circulatory diseases’, of which 3,357 could be Covid, leaving 4,752 from other causes. These categories can overlap – a death certificate can mention more than one of them – so the figures can’t simply be added to get a grand total, and the underlying cause could be recorded as something different. Nonetheless, we are talking about thousands of additional cardiovascular deaths in the period.
However, the mystery deepens, since ONS data show that deaths where the underlying cause was cardiovascular were actually below average in this period. At the same time, deaths where Covid was recorded as the underlying cause accounted for only a fraction of the cardiovascular deaths. So what was the underlying cause of these excess deaths involving cardiovascular conditions that weren’t Covid? A query to the ONS came back suggesting it was explained by the significant number of excess deaths where the underlying cause was recorded as “symptoms, signs and ill-defined conditions”. In other words, we don’t really know. This means there were thousands of excess deaths involving cardiovascular conditions in England in the latter part of 2021, but the underlying cause of many of them is unknown.
Could encounter with the virus in late 2021 have somehow triggered a wave of mysterious heart-related deaths, despite producing no detectable infection? If so, does vaccination make someone more susceptible to this, or natural immunity, or neither? What is the medical explanation? This and other hypotheses need to be explored thoroughly, as the phenomenon is both strange and alarming.
Below are the separate charts for the nine countries used in the above analysis, plus other Western European countries and Israel that report excess deaths weekly. As can be seen, all of them show the same pattern to a greater or lesser extent. I will post an update to this article once further data from the winter is in.
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The inference of this article is obvious, the elephant in the room.
Does that mean the excess cardiovascular deaths were not caused by climate change???!!!
From Bob Moran …
Lancet is blaming SADS on air pollution
(November 2022). https://bgr.com/science/study-claims-tiny-particles-in-the-air-can-cause-sudden-heart-attacks/
Clown world. Nothing to do with poison injections.
They think we are as idiotic as they are
Sceptic readers not but most of the population most definitely are unfortunately which is why they get away with the cr4p.
‘Nobody is blinder than the person who decides he does not want to see’
Dot to dot should be on the curriculum not enhanced maths
Bob Moran is a genius. He never fails to prove that a picture can say a thousand words.
That’s next week.
The guilty keep lying. One day, maybe soon maybe not so soon, they will run out of lies, or they will end up telling lies so big that even the sheeple will cotton on.
One can but live in hope!!!
“the Government could and should do better to get to the bottom of what is driving the excess in cardiovascular deaths. We’ll keep digging.”
Hilarious. Yes keep digging Carl, right underneath the giant Syringe shaped elephant. Maybe you’ll get to Australia and you can ask them what caused it.
Don’t look here……………………………………….look over here…
Carl,
You gaslight on plenty of TV and Radio shows. Regularly. Weekly in fact.
You know what is causing this just as much as I do – and I’m not a medical professional.
Why not compile the facts as you have them now and come out on TV and say there is strong indication/evidence that the excess deaths are caused by…….
…or will you keep the TV and Radio slots for as long as you can, not mention the unmentionable while the rest of us guess the correct answer and ask why all these super-experienced and super-educated medical professionals continue to be “baffled”.
There is real harm in the public being caused because of loss of confidence (more than now) in the medical profession because you/they will not call out the Emperors new clothes. We all see the nakedness.
Slowly slowly catchy monkey.
It’s a bit harsh to criticise a practitioner of ‘evidence based medicine’ for not resorting to speculation. CH and team are asking the government to provide the evidence required to form conclusions and then scrutinise that which is provided to test its reliability, that’s the difference between him and Dr Malhotra or Dr McCullough (neither of whom i’m criticising either, they just take a different approach).
I want to see these jabs exposed just as much as the next guy but it won’t be done by wild speculation.
I’d say we’re a bit past “speculation” at this point. It’s probably because he doesn’t want to risk jeopardising his job. Understandable but a shame because he, along with the likes of Malhotra, would have a heck of a lot of clout. No offence to Prof Heneghan but it does come off as cowardice. Don’t tell me he isn’t personally seeing evidence of vax harms first hand in his clinical practice. He’d also be in a position to establish the vax status of his patients.
I quite agree. We’re 2 years in. The time for speculation is long gone. Enough data the world over has been collected. The Prof has a duty of care both clinically and academically. It’s painfully obvious he’s dancing around the flaming obvious, all the while ignoring the Yellow Card system screaming the safety signal for anyone with zero letters behind their name to see. He’s failed in his duty to protect patients and inform the public and that’s a huge disappointment for someone so highly credentialed. He’d make one hell of an opponent for tptb and ally for others who’ve got the courage to speak up though. What a let down.
Swineflu Vaccine:- 1 adverse reaction in 100,000. Withdrawn
Rotashield Vaccine:- 20 adverse reactions in 100,000. Withdrawn
Covid mRNA Vaccine:- 125 adverse reactions in 100,000. Actively promoted.
(yet the AZ C19 Vaccine was quietly withdrawn with (less than??) 1/800 reaction rate)
Adverse reaction reporting is reputed to be only 1/10 of actual events?
That I would suggest is a very good starting point for any evidence based scientist and the medical profession to openly question the current “treatment” plan.
We all need to keep an open mind until there is clear evidence one way or another.
Those who claim the vaccines are causing many of the excess deaths need to explain why there haven’t been excess deaths in the highly vaccinated Nordic countries, at least up until July 2022:
“Between January 2020 and July 2022, Sweden’s age-standardised mortality rate was 4% lower than the five-year average. By contrast, Iceland’s was 3.9% lower, Denmark’s was 2.8% lower and Finland’s was 1.7% lower.”
https://dailysceptic.org/2023/01/04/sweden-did-better-than-its-neighbours/
Cholesterol…statins …a whole other can of worms…..40 million Americans are taking statins!
‘Our review of the literature indicates that statin therapy for both primary and secondary prevention of CVD is not warranted for individuals on an LCD with elevated LDL-C who have achieved a low triglyceride/HDL ratio.’
‘….a person on an LCD with a nonatherogenic lipid profile (low TGs/high HDL-C) is more likely to experience the adverse effects of statins including an increased risk of new onset type 2 diabetes, an increase in fasting blood glucose in patients with and without diabetes, mitochondrial dysfunction, tendinopathy, myopathy, acute kidney injury/renal failure and cognitive deficits than benefits.
https://journals.lww.com/co-endocrinology/Fulltext/2022/10000/Statin_therapy_is_not_warranted_for_a_person_with.14.aspx
Cognitive deficits?
‘……the study predicts that the number of people with dementia will go up in every country in the world, resulting in a near tripling in the global rate of dementia.’
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(21)00249-8/fulltext
Hmmm………
Great points Monro, and completely echoes what a long career in medicine has taught me.
A simple test of lipid subfractions (which splits LDL into 7 subtypes of which only some are atherogenic) as well as HDL and TG’s can stratify who may benefit from statins.
In my experience, few GP’s know of this test, such is the power of Big Pharma marketing.
The deleterious effects of the mRNA spike protein on the cardiovascular vascular system were theorised years ago – Sucharit Bhakdi – and on a biomolecular level this paper, particularly para. 10 :-
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027869152200206X
No doubt those to be tasked, lol, with looking at any causal relationship will be well aware of the above.
Maybe I’m stupid, but to my mind we have –
Excess deaths from CVE’s in highly vaxxed countries,
A temporal link with the mRNA vaccines,
Evidence of harmful effects on the immune system/CV system theorised in many papers written by independent experts in their appropriate fields and absence of any coherent rebuttal.
Instead all we do have is a deafening silence from the public face of the medical profession, government and the MSM.
Warning for the jabbed, CVE’s may just be the start of the problems. But no worries, those won’t be investigated either.
CVE’s may just be the start of the problems. But no worries, those won’t be investigated either.
Indeed. It makes me shudder, and I’m unstabbed.
Apologies, ref to above paper should have been to para 14 in as opposed to just para 10
Considering he’s Prof of Evidence Based Medicine, Dr Heneghan sure is reticent about mentioning the word “vaccine”. It’s always the same in his articles. Weird..
The usual suspects would like us to believe that it is. It would support the finances of the manufacturers. As one or two have mentioned Malhotra in their comments, it’s worth noting that he has his own point of view about the large scale use of statins.
Aseem Malhotra is not alone in his view of statins. The International Network of Statin Skeptics has thoroughly trashed the cholesterol/heart disease link but has faced the same stonewalling and denigration that coronavirus vaccine sceptics are now seeing. Statins do reduce cardiac risk, but only a tiny bit, and the effect is almost certainly because of an anti-inflammatory action and not anything to do with their cholesterol-lowering properties – look at the recent introductions which are even better at cholesterol-lowering but no better at reducing cardiac risk. So I think that blaming a (non-existent) reduction in statin prescriptions is ridiculous. As far as being over-cautious with blaming vaccines goes, I think this is wise, as the high vaccination levels run in parallel with the appearance of new virus variants such as Omicron, and it is far from clear yet whether the viral variants confer a differential cardiac risk. It’s also pointed out that the risk of inflammatory cardiac disease is still (probably) higher with infection than with vaccine. Nonetheless it makes more scientific sense to pause the vaccination programme while all of this is sorted than continue, at risk, until the evidence is totally clear-cut.
Dr John Campbell with an inmteresting video on the subject.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26zP0YhEdmg
All these heart attacks are due to anything and everything but the real cause – which we all know.
We need to start laughing at the professional liars in Public Health when they come out with such ridiculous statements.
Trying to argue with professional liars using facts doesn’t gain traction. Laughing at them will.
Not listing vaccines as a hypothetical cause to be investigated and quantified alongside e.g. ambulance delays, is in itself suspicious.