Analysis of official data by Professor Anthony Brookes, an expert in genetics and health data at the University of Leicester and a Daily Sceptic contributor, has shown that the risk of death from Covid for over-70s has decreased by tenfold compared to a year ago. Speaking to the Express, Prof Brookes said Covid no longer posed a significant threat to “the vast majority of people”.
We will not be in anything like the same place in January 2022 as we were in January 2021. Infected individuals are at dramatically less risk of becoming seriously ill or dying than a year ago. Over the last month the risk has been dropping further thanks to Omicron now accounting for around 95% of cases in England. Omicron is around four-fold less dangerous – it’s like nature’s vaccine. There has always been over a thousand fold difference in risk of serious illness or death between the old and the young. Currently the risk of death for the population as a whole is no worse than for seasonal influenza. For healthy children the risk is miniscule.
Younger people now have a higher risk of dying from a car crash in a whole year, than they do from COVID-19. Since their serious Covid risk is already very low, it is hard to identify any good reason for imposing or coercing youngsters to take on the known risks of vaccination. COVID-19 is progressively evolving to become another form of the common cold. Omicron takes us further down that path by reducing IFR at least three-fold. Would a normal society undertake mass testing and require isolation for the common cold?
His analysis, based on ONS infection survey data and death data, shows that at the start of the pandemic people over 70 had roughly a 10% risk of dying from COVID-19 if infected, but the infection fatality rate (IFR) has now fallen to 1-2% for this age group. The chart below, which owing to the three-week lag runs to the end of November, so does not cover the Omicron surge, has been supplied to the Daily Sceptic by Prof Brookes.
Professor Paul Hunter, an expert in infectious disease at the University of East Anglia, said:
There is no doubt the illness we are seeing now is less severe than at the start. We are seeing a big shift towards Covid becoming the common cold due to a range of factors including prior infection and vaccines. There is a point where we have to ask why are we testing and isolating people who just have a common cold?
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I never trust people who wear photochromic glasses.
Very much hope it’s better than last week’s. I used to be more Team James than Team Toby, but, after last week….., if James continues with the constant digs, insults and personal attacks (and, unlike the broadcasts we came to know and love, not in light-hearted vein) I will no longer be listening.
Exactly how I felt. I would add however that Toby exhibits wilful blindness over James’ points sometimes, and does characterise his more far out beliefs as conspiracy theories, rather than attempting to address them.
I think he’s just getting exasperated at the constant attacks from James (and they have, sadly, become attacks now) and starting to hit back a little and give a bit of ‘like for like’. But, sure, perhaps it would be better to say something like ‘That’s an interesting theory. I’ll admit I haven’t looked deeply into it, and if I had any working minutes left after my work for the Daily Sceptic and The Free Speech Union and the journalism necessary to feed my family, I would.’
Sadly, I have given up on these.
I thoroughly enjoyed the early ones, then they got longer and longer. Then when listening to them I began feel that James was starting to sound like a child who thinks shouting “bum” or “poo” will cause his elders to have fit of the vapours.
There is now little reasoned discussion.
I an surprised that Toby continues with them.
I would rather hear him talking with Nick although those are becoming rather long and tedious and could do with some sharper editing.
Have just listened. Thank goodness – it was much better than last week. Just the right touch this time, from both.