As reported positive cases plummet following ‘Freedom Day’ – down to 24,950 across the U.K. on Monday, less than half the peak of 54,674 just nine days earlier – the damage limitation among the doomsters begins.
In the Spectator , Professor Oliver Johnson of Bristol University stepped up this morning to try to explain.
He starts by observing that “for the first time in 18 months, there’s been a fall in cases that can’t be easily explained by a national lockdown”. Yet the Spectator recently published an article by Professor Simon Wood showing that new infections peaked and fell before lockdown on all three occasions in England. Did the editors forget to bring it to Professor Johnson’s attention?
Next, Professor Johnson offers some reasons why it may yet be a false dawn.
Indeed it’s possible that the peak in cases, welcome though it is, could only be a local maximum with further rises to come. The rapid reversal in trajectory (from 40% increases between corresponding days of the week to 40% decreases) seems too sudden to be caused by a rapid gain in immunity. It seems more likely to be due to changes in behaviour, with school holidays, the end of the European Championship football and recent hot weather meaning that infected people have had fewer opportunities to spread the disease.
You could have made a similar argument about Covid peaking in Bolton, one of the first places hit by the Delta variant. There was plenty of talk of local herd immunity there. But it’s worth noticing that those falls were subsequently reversed.
And here’s the risk now: what behaviour gives, behaviour can take away. I don’t think anyone can be certain if and when Covid might start going up again. But Scotland gives us hope that sustained falls may be possible.
So far we haven’t even seen the effect of the July 19th reopening in the data, let alone people following now-deleted advice not to ‘cower’, plus there’s the return to schools and universities to come, seasonal effects coming back in the autumn and so on.
The argument that “what behaviour gives, behaviour can take away” is precisely why the models always predict exit waves. Yet the modellers don’t seem to have noticed that these exit waves never happen. There was no exit wave in the U.K. or Europe in summer 2020, nor in spring 2021 in the U.K. as restrictions were eased, nor in the U.S. as measures were lifted. Yet the myth of the exit wave persists.
Why Professor Johnson thinks the “rapid reversal in trajectory” should be taken as a sign of behaviour change rather than herd immunity is unclear. Rapid reversals are entirely normal in viral outbreaks, whether COVID-19 (visible in the U.K. winter outbreak, among many others around the world) or in seasonal flu outbreaks, which almost always have this pointy shape – clearly not the result of lockdowns or behaviour change. In fact, it is exactly what you would expect herd immunity to look like, especially with an overshoot, as the pool of susceptible people runs out. Conversely, there is no evidence that behaviour change causes this kind of abrupt decline of an outbreak. Can Professor Johnson point to any such evidence?
The recent double peak in Bolton may be a result of the outbreak there having two phases, the first focused on the British Asian communities first infected with the Indian variant and the second spread across the community more broadly. As Professor Johnson notes, the sustained decline in Scotland since the end of June suggests it may continue in England too.
Then there is Professor Johnson’s inconsistency in claiming that the school holidays, which began on July 21st-23rd in England, are reflected in the drop, whereas ‘Freedom Day’, which was July 19th, is not. In fact, the assertion that a reopening seven days ago would not yet be seen in the data is bizarre: the mean incubation period of the virus is four to five days.
In addition, Professor Johnson’s colleague, Professor Philip Thomas, leader of the Bristol modelling team, writing in the Spectator in June, was clear that he did not think the reopening would make a material difference. “The model shows that the virus is growing exponentially already,” he wrote. “The final step on the roadmap out of lockdown makes little difference. We are already mixing about as liberally as we would otherwise do on a full reopening.”
His team predicted “an enormous final wave” in which the virus “would quickly seek out the one-in-three Britons who are still susceptible: mainly the not-yet-vaccinated” and peak in the middle of July (he got that bit right) “at anywhere between two million and four million active infections“. According to the ONS, in the week ending July 17th (which PHE data suggests is the peak), around 741,700 people in England were infected, a long way short of two to four million.
This is more than just a curiosity, to be explained by half-baked explanations about football tournaments and hot weather (the peak by specimen date was July 15th, and there was no obvious change in the weather in the week prior to that).
It fundamentally challenges the validity of the models, Bristol’s as much as those used by SAGE, that keep wrongly predicting mass infection in the absence of restrictions because they mistakenly assume everyone is susceptible and the restrictions are working. This has been evident since at least the peaking of Sweden’s initial wave in spring 2020, and arguably earlier with the evidence from the Diamond Princess cruise ship. But now that infections have plummeted in England as restrictions are eased it is exposed to the world and the lessons must be learned.
The modellers of doom convinced Boris Johnson to delay ‘Freedom Day’ for a whole month because of worries about rising cases, only for the reopening to coincide with a steep drop. There’s a beautiful irony in that, but it’s important that Government ministers now see through the fraud that is being perpetrated against citizens by the flawed Covid modelling and grasp that they do not need to live in fear of this virus.
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Jumping around and hugging each other at football stadiums, pubs or in the streets for the Euros did not make a difference either.
The virus does what a virus does.
The experts do what experts do: get it wrong.
The government does what the government does: lies.
Viruses have had a billion or more years to evolve to do the right thing; ideally infect hosts with sufficient onward spread but not to be so lethal as to stop that spread. The experts have had a few decades at most.
Virus: 1, Exports 0.
And the sheep and collaborators believe and do what they are told.
Don’t forget, this virus was manipulated.
We knew they were fatally flawed from the start.
There are some, okay a lot, of people that really seem to love having power over everybody. I guess everyone’s inner authoritarian comes out in times like these.
… and don’t forget the drive for personal significance and collecting establishment gongs etc.
There is also the possibility that more unvaccinated people (like me, my wife and a good number of friends and acquaintances) have actually caught the virus, but being sensible folk, have not added to the dictatorship’s statistics, but have simply put up with a mild flu like illness, recovered and are now carrying on as normal. These so called experts are desperate to justify their positions and will make up any bullshit to do so. What they clearly fail to (still) understand is that this is not and never has been a disease worthy of such attention.
I would not be surprised if there weren’t massive underreporting of infections because there is a clear disincentive to taking a public PCR test—you might be put under house arrest. COVID-19 just went through my children’s school and many parents chose not to test their children using the drive-in centres. They used home lateral flow tests and kept the results to themselves.
I would bet that the actual number of infections would be 3-5 times higher than whats reported.
Totally agree. And remember, hundreds of thousands would get no financial support if they had to isolate. So why on earth would they report it?
They are rarely f.ing SARS ‘infections’!!!! – more a stray bit of RNA – possibly related to a summer cold.
Why did they test their children at all though? There’s no nobility in not reporting the results if you’re subjecting your children to this unpleasant and unnecessary test that they don’t need.
When you say “infections” I’m assuming you mean FALSE positive tests?
How many people had Covid 18,17,16,15,etc?
Well said! I am envious though apart from my “new found friends” at Stand in the Park all my friends and family have been jabbed unfortunately, sad but true
.
With thanks to the original poster:
‘Audience: Individuals Performing COVID-19 Testing
Level: Laboratory Alert
After December 31, 2021, CDC will withdraw the request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, the assay first introduced in February 2020 for detection of SARS-CoV-2 only. CDC is providing this advance notice for clinical laboratories to have adequate time to select and implement one of the many FDA-authorized alternatives.
Visit the FDA website for a list of authorized COVID-19 diagnostic methods.’
https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert-Changes_CDC_RT-PCR_SARS-CoV-2_Testing_1.html
‘Infections’ are plummeting, the government’s poll ratings are taking a long overdue damn good thrashing and now ‘Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’ are binning the PCR test.
The next President of the United States will be a lockdown sceptic.
Not even three wheels left on the lockdown fanatic wagon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vLhcg_FU9g
‘CDC encourages laboratories to consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses. Such assays can facilitate continued testing for both influenza and SARS-CoV-2 and can save both time and resources as we head into influenza season.’
https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert-Changes_CDC_RT-PCR_SARS-CoV-2_Testing_1.html
Finally a testing regime that will distinguish between influenza and a common cold.
This is important:
‘Unexpectedly Higher Morbidity and Mortality of Hospitalized Elderly Patients Associated with Rhinovirus Compared with Influenza Virus Respiratory Tract Infection’
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5343795/
“CDC encourages laboratories to consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses. Such assays can facilitate continued testing for both influenza and SARS-CoV-2 and can save both time and resources as we head into influenza season.’
Isn’t it interesting that Bill and The Slug have millions invested in a facility that designs and manufactures tests? Won’t theirs be the next shiny bauble held up for suitable fawning and worship by the “test ‘em to oblivion” brigade? Call me a sceptic, I don’t care, but “Test, Track and Trace” is a phenomenon on steroids here to stay and it’s not about checking if you have the sniffles.
Oliver Johnson : did I read ‘Professor’ or was it ‘Cupid Stunt’?
I think it must be the latter. It’s always associated with imagining ‘waves’ and ‘peaks’ everywhere, as well as an overblown sense of competence after serial failure to predict anything.
The same people who “predicted” that “restrictions will have to be reintroduced to control cases in the first week of August” have now seamlessly switched to “might be over for sommer“, IOW, they’re now “predicting” that “…. in Autumn”.
Scientists would admit their errors. But these polit-o-clowns wrongly claiming to be scientists never.
Pop Quiz! You can only pick one!
There are 4 people in a room; a rapist, a pedophile, a murderer, and one law abiding citizen below the age of 50 who has a 99.98% chance of surviving COVID-19 according to the CDC so he refuses to take an unsafe, ineffective, experimental mRNA vaccine.
Which person does the global government and corporate media want to systematically segregate with “medical apartheid passports” restricting access to commerce, travel, and employment
The rapist, pedophile, murderer, or law abiding citizen
Credit (via Telegram) @KanekoaTheGreat
the other 3 are qualified for the global gov.
Tough one, that.
NOT!!!
Copying that if you don’t mind.
Page 3 Girls were models with Silicon Tits
The Sage cabal are tits with silicon models.
I have not had the opportunity to fondle a Page 3 Girls’ tits, but I think they would be *silicone* and not sand.
I have, and you are correct.
Who cares if “cases” are rising or falling, it is a cold.
.
“Then there is Professor Johnson’s inconsistency in claiming that the school holidays, which began on July 21st-23rd in England”
They began on the 16th around here.
Just cancelled my Spectator subscription. Fed up with their confused narrative. Will miss a few of the journalists, but not the editorials and the confusing narrative.
“I don’t think anyone can be certain if and when Covid might begin going up again …..”
Well, since it’s a seasonal, respiratory illness, there’s a pretty good chance that it will be in the autumn. And there’s nothing we can do about that. Another lockdown won’t “save lives” although it may briefly delay a few imminent deaths ….. at the expense of other deaths from preventable causes (strokes, cancer etc); it will also trigger even more mental health illnesses and will do further damage to the economy.
It must be so disappointing for the Lockdown Extremists that their predictions of overwhelmed hospitals if we dare remove our masks hasn’t come to pass.
Once the WHO and Governments made the decision that Sars-Cov-2 was a lethal Pandemic, the numbers became irrelevant; to them at least.
The plans to cope with such an event were made at the beginning of this century by both the U.S. and British Governments in response to the fears brought on by 9/11.
They were worried that the next terrorist attack might be biological or even that the early Mers, Sars and Avian viruses would morph into a Spanish flu type event.
Sars -Cov-2 was never a lethal Pandemic as the death rates clearly show.
Government agencies, like the builder of a sailing yacht, will always want to sail it whether there as any wind or not.
“His team predicted “an enormous final wave” in which the virus “would quickly seek out the one-in-three Britons who are still susceptible: mainly the not-yet-vaccinated””
Come on, this is fantasy island stuff, sheer nonsense! It’s making the virus out to be a sentient being, and totally disregards the immune shielding effect of herd immunity, which we know is already there because the ONS and the fact checker’s bible Wikipedia says so.
Could the fall in cases mean that people are waking up and not getting tested? My local testing centre in Cornwall is deserted.
The one in Burnley has been deserted for months, apart from about 20 staff cars, and our local one, in Rawtenstall was closed down over 4 months ago.
All these articles are irrelevant now. It’s clear that there is an agenda here and it will end in a social credit system like China. Daily Skeptic needs to recognise this threat.and stop pretending that it’s all a big mistake,or was that its purpose from the begining?