Just how final was the July 19th “terminus date“? If Government advisers in SAGE have anything to do with it, then not at all. Some have argued that a number of restrictions, such as mandatory face masks and advice to work from home, should be brought back at the beginning of August if hospitalisation levels increase to keep the figures “under control”. And it’s hard to imagine the Government standing firm against this pressure, given that both a minister and the Chief Medical Officer have said Brits will “of course” face a new lockdown if the NHS comes under further pressure. The i has the story.
Scientific advisers have warned that Boris Johnson should be prepared to act in the first week of August to prevent the NHS becoming overwhelmed by the end of that month.
Modelling has suggested that the central case for U.K. daily hospitalisations at the peak of the third wave – expected at the end of August – could be between 1,000 and 2,000, with deaths predicted to be between 100 and 200 per day. …
Last week Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty said hospitalisations were doubling roughly every three weeks.
This would suggest close to 1,500 admissions by the end of the first week of August, well above the trajectory for the central case scenario for the third wave. It would point to 3,000 at the peak by the end of that month, which would match the peak of the first wave in April 2020.
Insiders stressed there is a lot of uncertainty in the modelling, and the picture will change all the time depending on vaccine take-up and people’s behaviour after July 19th.
But if admissions are outstripping the central estimates, SAGE scientists have advised that some non-pharmaceutical measures should be reintroduced, such as mandatory face masks and advice to work from home, in early August, halfway between the July 19th unlocking and the predicted peak at the end of August.
This early intervention, they argue, would prevent the NHS becoming swamped in a late summer crisis. …
Last week, when the Prime Minister gave the go-ahead for the fourth and final stage of the roadmap in England, he accepted that some restrictions may have to be reimposed if the situation worsened.
A source said what was needed was “less of an emergency brake and more of a gear change” in readiness to keep the third wave “under control”.
While mandatory face masks would be the “easiest” route to curb transmission, with minimal impact on the economy if it were kept to public transport and essential settings like supermarkets, this would have to be weighed against the “totemic” impact it would have on the public if they were ordered to cover up once again.
But others are arguing that the Government should be prepared to take tougher action.
Professor Dominic Harrison, Director of Public Health for Blackburn, said: “Any return to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control spread would have to focus on those that give the biggest suppression effect.
“Essentially we might expect a reverse through the lockdown lifting steps with each ‘reverse step’ being introduced to match the scale of the surge in cases.”
Worth reading in full.
Discussion
Comments
This week across the site:
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I will not wear a face mask again. I will not follow these ridiculous made up rules that make no sense. I will not sacrifice my life and happiness to save a not fit for purpose health system. I am not a believer in the church of the NHS and I do not recognise its priests.
Why are SAGE still proposing we should wear silly bits of cloth over our faces when they have minimal effect on the transmission of the virus, and even then that minute reduction only applies to people with symptoms who shouldn’t be in locations where they can spread their infections anyway. During hot weather, I find cloth masks uncomfortable and that they impair my breathing and in any case unless you use a new mask after each use (which nobody does) they retain unhelpful bacteria which negates the miniscule benefit, if any, of their use. I feel the reason these SAGE power mad people want us to wear masks is just to demonstrate the power they have over us. If they try to impose them again, it’s time for the people to say NO! We have been too compliant to their poorly justified demands, and it’s time the real science and facts relating to the propaganda behind their demands was publicised further, so people can decide for themselves what is best for their safety
How many unbelievable things can you believe before breakfast?
This is another unbelievable ‘fact’ from SAGE: peak COVID admissions at the end of August.
Scotland has peaked; 92.6% of adults and three-quarters of under 25s in Wales have antibodies (www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57915167); infection numbers in England may well have now also peaked.
But admissions will not peak for another five weeks?
Admissions will then decline as autumn sets in?
Whilst knowing about the existance of such reports and the SAGE claims they are based on, the repeating of the newspaper report on Sceptics serves the same purpose as the SAGE Covid forecast: to spread fear rather than enlightenment.
Sage is an ingredient in stuffing, and I know where I would like to stuff SAGE.
Hahahhah bring back masks?? They only went away on Monday! They didn’t work then either!
“Any return to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control spread would have to focus on those that give the biggest suppression effect. ”
You would think that perhaps that should have been the case all along, wouldn’t you? This guy is actually stating that we have been subjected to restrictions that don’t actually have much benefit. Well, who’d have thought it?
When have any of SAGE’s modelling predictions been anywhere near accurate? And as for Macron, where is the nearest lamp post?
They can’t be scientist if the think face masks work. I think you mean “Sage Communists”
Odysee exclusive: Mark Sexton’s Speech in Parliament Square, 19th of July
FULL speech.
https://odysee.com/@ResistanceGB:f/Mark-Sexton-Retired-UK-Policeman-Speaks-Outside-Parliament-to-Passionate-Applause:4
Stand in South Hill Park Bracknell every Sunday from 10am meet fellow anti lockdown freedom lovers, keep yourself sane, make new friends and have a laugh.
Join our Stand in the Park – Bracknell – Telegram Group
http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell
HOME EDUCATION – Ex-Primary School Teacher on Resistance GB YouTube Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZ5oS2ejye0
https://www.hopesussex.co.uk/our-mission
No one who argues that facemasks made a positive health difference instead of the obvious hugely negative one should be on SAGE, tenured or still have their approbation.
Fat lot of difference the bloody snake oil made, then.
In 10,000+ years of human civilisation we’ve mastered farming, developed the most astonishing technologies, reached an understanding of the origins of life and the universe.
But it wasn’t until the year 2020 that we realised that putting a cloth over one’s mouth and nose could save us all from fatal disease. Somehow, we had overlooked that one.
What are the odds…
as someone recently wrote, it’s like trying to stop mosquitoes with a wire fence
It gets more bizarre than that: The political pressure group behind “face masks” (masks4all) actually published a paper starting with the assertion that a Chinese guy named Wu found a miracle cure against the plague at the beginning of the last century (1911/12) and it was “homemade cloth masks” of his own design.
This alone should really have been sufficient to laugh these guys out of the house as people did try to use this idea to combat the black death in Europe and – obviously – it didn’t work.
SAGE..Soothsayers Against Genuine Evidence.
The face of every member of SAGE should be eaten by an alligator because they need to fuck right off.
Deleted.
Deleted as it duplicates a previous post which I thought had been removed but it now appears down below.
I do wish that this site wouldn’t continue to just lamely regurgitate what’s in the msm (as if ‘the i’ has any credence whatsoever as an outlet of record). What we need, as sceptics, is a toolkit for dealing with all this sh1t, and that’s what this site is lacking.
Agree. I understand the site has a small staff and limited funds but in that case it would be better to concentrate on quality of articles rather than quantity.
And yes, I think the site needs to emphasise more the positive steps we can take to resist the authoritarianism and share some positive news stories in that regard.
Even if masks were effective, home made ones could never be due to the holes put into the fabric whilst making them, firstly by the pins holding the paper pattern during the cutting out stage and secondly by the pins holding the pieces together whilst the sewing machine punches more holes in the fabric for the thread to go through. Comfort blanket anyone?
I’m planning to sell dummies, with golden syrup to dunk them in.
My guess would be that the cries for renewed face masking will start to become seriously loud once it’s reasonably certain that cases number will be falling in order to maintain the correlation.
That would be consistent with the timings of all the various phases where restrictions were increased.
As I’m doing a little of my own analysis of the government number with some code I’ve written for this purpose, I know that this is the case for the winter lockdown. That was announced on the exact day when the speed of the increase in cases took a sharp downturn.
Likewise, the present out-of-bounds growth of symptomless cases started exactly on April 17th (reopening of indoor hospitality).
… the plot to tie vaccination to biometrics and digital IDs is real. Don’t think Ghana will be the only country to adopt it. The plan is to roll this out to all countries!
Ghana to Become First Country to Use Contactless Biometrics in National Vaccination Program
After trialing technologies for contactless fingerprint and facial recognition, the project will use low-cost Android smartphones in the field to make the initiative as easy and cheap as possible to roll out. The system does not require an existing formal identity document. A biometric identity will be created for individuals and elements of the latest database downloaded to health worker handsets allowing them to continue vaccination offline and upload when a connection becomes available. The hope is that this approach will be effective in terms of population reach as well as low wastage rates. For the second dose for COVID-19 vaccines, the individual’s biometrics will be verified to recall their record and check appropriateness for the second and if administered, update the records.
Read the rest of the article here …
https://www.biometricupdate.com/202107/ghana-to-become-first-country-to-use-contactless-biometrics-in-national-vaccination-program
I think this vax pass thing goes much further than just Covid. They have been pushing smart meters in our homes, they are talking of road pricing for cars, which will mean all cars will have to be digitally connected. Come the day, you will jump in your car and it will not start because you have already exceeded your monthly travel allowance, so you will go back to the kitchen and have a wholesome veggie beverage because that is all your interactive kettle will let you have, your smart speaker will then tell you that the techno-health van will be calling later to inject you with the latest potions the computer has worked out that you need to keep you in the necessary zombie like condition that the state has deemed appropriate.
It’s life Jim but not as we know it.
Pretty much my guess also. Probably many others.
Keep what figures under control?
Deaths? They are under control.
Excess mortality? Negative.
Case Fatality Rate? Declining
Share of positive tests? Within the boundaries of the False Positive rate and below the “pandemic” threshold set by the WHO
People vaccinated? Nearly 70% of the population.
Hospital patients? Averaging about 3 per UK hospital.
Weekly hospital admissions? Averaging about 3 per UK hospital
ICU patients? Less than 1 per UK hospital
How we are doing compared to other countries? The “pandemic” is over – everywhere
So the only figure that needs to be kept under control is “cases”.
But you can reduce that yourselves by
STOPPING FEKKING TESTING ASYMPTOMATIC PEOPLE
and
DISABLING THE FEKKING APP
and
TURNING DOWN PCR CYCLES ON YOUR FEKKING DISHONEST TESTING.
It would point to 3,000 at the peak by the end of that month, which would match the peak of the first wave in April 2020.
If this turns out to be true, then there is one simple conclusion to be drawn: the vaccines don’t work
‘While mandatory face masks would be the “easiest” route to curb transmission, with minimal impact on the economy…’
With minimal impact on transmission too. Don’t these ‘scientists’ read the literature? I can send them a copy of the Danish mask study if they haven’t read it yet, but let’s face it, they’re not actually interested in evidence, placing their faith instead in superstition and on computer modelling (which is much the same thing).
Even without the study, the statistics make it very clear. Give a maskivist an infections graph for any country and ask them to say whether where was a mask mandate, and if so when it was imposed – it’s impossible as the enforced muzzling has absolutely no impact on the figures!
How to bump up the numbers;
Cases – not how many you test, but who you test, age groups and where.
Hospitalisations – everyone that visits a hospital, even for routine treatment, must take a LFT – and because they’re already in a hospital, if they test positive, it’s classed as a hospitalisation.
Deaths – doctors assess cause of death by Zoom.
18 months and they’re still pulling the same strokes.
‘surge testing’
find out where there are most cases and go there
Zoe is more trustworthy
Ah… The SAGE Committee. So, I would like to know where and when you acuired the democratic mandate to govern this Country, the Conservative Party and the People?
Is Her Majesty aware of your claim to power?
but, but, vaccinations, vaccinations, flatten the curve…….
FACE MASKS DON’T WORK! I am honestly beginning to understand why Donald Trump thought he had to write in capitals….
Ignore Sage
Get On with Life
Stay Healthy
France Rises Up Against The New Fascism.
“The people have woken up – at last!” declared local Gilet Jaune rebel Michelle as she watched the vast crowds assembling on the main square of Montpellier in southern France.
The arguments about viruses and masks and lockdowns now seem less relevant in the face of this chilling assault on the most fundamental of human rights. Even the jab itself is not really the issue any more, with those who have already had it joining in the protests against the totalitarian laws due to come into place on August 1.
https://www.activistpost.com/2021/07/france-rises-up-against-the-new-fascism.html
Fantastic! That is the only way to fight this outrage on our personal liberties. Refuse to be coerced en masse.
not everyone with a jab is a fanatic authoritarian
I’ve not been jabbed so it’s easy for me to say, but I guess if someone has been jabbed because they thought it was beneficial to their health, the moral high ground position is that those people refuse to use that fact to allow them to access things that the unjabbed cannot access. I don’t know what I would do.
No. Not every German was a Nazi, but… there was a lot of standing about saying nothing.
Just like the fearful Germans of the 1930s most people getting vaccinated are more afraid of their government than of the threat from which the government is supposedly protecting them.
I wonder if our boys in blue will do the same? They took the knee for BLM.
French Police lay down shields and join 100,000 protestors against Macrons plans for mandatory vaccine passports in France.
https://www.activistpost.com/2021/07/french-police-lay-down-shields-join-100000-protesters-marching-against-vaccine-passport.html
c’est fantastique!
amazing to see
well you wont see that on the MSM…
And he said that the police didn’t need to get vaccinated. What double standards! One rule for them, one rule for the plebs. The man is beyond despicable. Get that guillotine out of storage!
Trying to keep them on-side by using that as a bribe, I assume…
they still have guns.
Grande nouvelle!
Same old shite again. We now have over a year of statistics from around the world showing that muzzles and work-from-home orders make bugger-all difference to infection rates, but the doomsters continue playing the same old record over and over again. Just fuck off and let people get on with life!
No, no. After 2000 years of civilisation and all the scientific and technological advances that have taken place during that time, it turns out that putting a cloth over your face is the way to protect yourself from viruses.
Human civilisation didn’t discover that incredibly effective measure against deadly disease until the year 2020.
What are the odds.