It appears that the anticipated peak of the current surge in England has not yet arrived, and the recent slowdowns may have been temporary.
As of today, ZOE data is now beginning to show the uptick in infections that Government data has shown over the past week, reversing what had appeared to be (including to ZOE lead scientist Tim Spector) the early signs of a declining trend.
Early Indian variant hotspot Bolton, which had peaked and gone into decline in mid-May, is now spiking again.
Localities as far apart as Carlisle, Rushcliffe in Nottinghamshire and North Devon and also surging.
Neil Ferguson popped up again yesterday morning to predict up to 200,000 ‘cases’ a day in the not-so-distant future. However, it’s important to recognise that the ‘case’ figures for this surge are not comparable to those of earlier surges as testing numbers are now almost double what they were before March when mass testing with lateral flow devices came in.
Test positivity is currently only around 3%, according to Our World in Data, compared with around 7.7% at the autumn peak and 12.8% at the winter peak.
Nonetheless, there can be no doubt this is a real virus surge, despite being summer – the Delta variant appears not to be as afraid of the sunshine as other variants. As of July 10th the ONS infection survey has both England and Scotland on just over 1% community prevalence of COVID-19.
Interestingly Scotland’s decline in reported positive tests has continued, holding out hope that 1-2% prevalence may be the peak of this surge.
U.K. Hospital admissions are still relatively low but are now increasing. Deaths are still very low, though up a bit.
So once again we’re left waiting to see how high it will go, and what impact it will have on hospital admissions and deaths. One difference this time though is restrictions are being lifted during the surge, not imposed, so we may finally have a clear test in this country of the theory that restrictions are necessary to bring infections down. The fact that ‘Freedom Day’ in any form is going ahead despite the ongoing surge is a sign of the strength of scepticism in Government and among Conservative MPs. Many are determined that now the vulnerable are vaccinated there can be no further justification for lockdowns, however high infections get, as what then would we be locking down for?
Why has this surge been wavier than previous ones, with a number of temporary plateaus or short term declines that were mistaken for peaks? Is it the warmer weather making progress more faltering? Is it the vaccines causing unexpected changes in the course of the epidemic, with the surge in the vaccinated coming later than in the unvaccinated? Could it even be all the gatherings for Euro 2020 putting rocket boosters under the spread? Or something else?
As so often, the drivers of the epidemic remain somewhat mysterious. Nonetheless, Scotland’s continued decline gives hope the peak is not too far away. Let’s hope so, as surges are always great for those who want an excuse to push through more Covid nonsense.
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“Nonetheless, there can be no doubt this is a real virus surge, despite being summer”
Not sure how you can write this, Will, immediately after the excellent “Lockdowns Summit”, with all its excellent demolitions of the idea of test results (whether pcr or lft) as “cases”.
It’s been asked many times before, but it clearly needs asking again: why does Lockdown Sceptics pander to the deceptive and pro-fear falsehood that positive test results are “cases” of a disease?
I think there is a surge but let’s contrast that with last summer when there wasn’t a surge. Why? I think because we weren’t vaccinated then, so the seasonal coronavirus was behaving more naturally then. Now some 80% or whatever are and that explains the surge since we know loads of people get Covid soon after the vaccination since their immune system is negatively impacted by the vaccine. Remember, maybe 10 million or more people are getting vaccinated every month so that allows huge scope for Covid to spread among people’s whose immune systems have been damaged by the vaccine (the damage may be only temporary but the jury is out on that).
I’m not!
Lol – point taken. Me neither!! I could have expressed that better as “we had nobody vaccinated last summer”.
Deaths up a bit from very low might only be one and most likely that poor soul would have been a false positive. This article is trying to make something out of nothing, why?
How many of these cases are the result of finding people with symptoms? And how many cases have been found due to mass testing?
Something isnt right in the official story. With 60% plus vaccinated, either the vaccine doesnt work or the testing isnt good and proper. It simply isnt possible to get a rising curve of cases like that when you have widespread immunity amongst a population that has mostly vaccine immunity or natural immunity from 18 months of ‘pandemic’.
I think I am not sticking my neck out too far when I say that the vaccines dont work (to stop covid) AND the testing doesnt work. For a long time we have wondered about the number of cycles used on the PCR test and whether or not the lateral flow tests are really up to the mark. More like they are being manipulated to produce the result that someone wants.
‘I think I am not sticking my neck out too far when I say that the vaccines dont work (to stop covid) AND the testing doesnt work.’
Bingo!
Another possibility is that the vaxxes are giving people covid-light which shows up in a positive PCR test.
Manipulation to get the required answer. Spot on.
Ironically it was track and trace that knocked Scotland out of the Euros. I suppose we will soon see a similar decline in “positive tests” in England… for what it’s worth.
More importantly, how much difference do these “vaccines” make? Mayo’s figures suggested about 36% of deaths “with” Covid to be among the unvaccinated compared to about one third of total population “unvaccinated” (plus the population they just admitted they have no idea about).
Either way, there has been over a year for people to get natural immunity, plus all the vulnerable offered the “protection” of “vaccination”. There is absolutely no justification for any more restrictions – unless they are going to continue this shambles indefinitely.
Hey Zoe! F*ck off.
We want our freedom. It’s our birthright. It can’t be sacrificed to some nonsense that kills only 00.0000001% of healthy, non-obese people.
Another weak article from a supposedly sceptical website! So sad. 🙁
Even using the “scary many-horned virus pic” is not really what you would expect of a sceptics site.
Why not use a graphic showing how many pathogen threats our individual bodies see off in a single day? I’m no biologist but I am guessing it’s probably in the hundreds of thousands. I do know our bloodstreams contain on average 80,000 cancerous cells and yet we don’t all succumb to cancer, Why? Because our wonderful immune systems honed to near perfection over billions of years (yes billions – scientific fact) destroy these threats to our being.
A Lockdown Sceptics site should be building up people’s confidence in their own bodies and minds – not undermining them in that MSM way.
So what? I have little confidence in what relevance these figures have. We have been below average deaths since the beginning of March. The only purpose these figures serve is propaganda, but a proper gander at deaths and real cases shows how empty this all is.
It looks very much like a ‘football’ surge to me. What, after all, would explain how Scotland’s infections (I know, I know, +ve tests!) should start coming down shortly after they exited from Euro 2020, yet England’s should sharply increase straight after the final (at the end of a week which would have seen 3 lots of mass gatherings to watch their matches).
Take a close look on gov.uk at the ‘cases’ data for English Local Authorities. There are lots where the rates were peaking, if not falling, by around July 2/3 or thereabouts, then jumped upwards sharply. This is pretty common in typically working class towns, such as Tamworth, Telford, Warwick, West Lancs, Wigan, York, Bristol, Warwick, Chorley, Wellingborough, to name a random few out of many.
I’ve been monitoring this trend closely, and it sure looks like a result of large numbers of sweaty, shouting, leaping and drunken (mainly) young blokes were pressed together inside claustrophobic pubs. Well that’s what it was like around where I live, anyway – especially on the night of the final (11 July)!
Anecdotally, my daughter was in one such gathering, in a large pub that she said was rammed, with no attempt to apply the stupid restrictions. I saw hundreds of fans on the streets when I went to pick her up after the game – all pissed! By Wednesday, she was complaining that she thought she had a cold starting, by Thursday, she was a full-blown case after 2 LFT and 1 PCR tests, all +ve – so yes, I do mean ‘case’.
She is recovering now from what have been classic symptoms of SARS-CoV2 infection. Unpleasant, like a rough flu spell. I tell her she is lucky, in that she will now be fully immune, hence be able to enjoy real (cough) freedom, including not having to have the vaccine – which she didn’t want anyway. In many ways I am jealous, although I am also relieved that my wife and I didn’t catch the virus from her.
I would also say, if it is true that thousands of football fans have been infected, that this is a good thing. Firstly because it gets us yet nearer to proper herd immunity with fewer fatalities, but also that it suggests that this ‘surge’ will be temporary, and that infections will quickly follow Scotland’s rapid downward trend.
I’ve had two, what I would call, summer colds this year. Would I have tested positive for SARS-Cov 2? I don’t know because the “test” on its own diagnoses nothing. As Cary Mullis himself said “If you test hard enough with PCR, you can find anything”
The latest symptoms of the Delta variant seem to be on a par with a summer cold (or even hayfever)-sneezing and a sore throat, according to Zoe. A friend, with similar symptoms has “tested” positive. She is not ill, just uncomfortable.
My daughter ended up with something far worse than a summer cold, Margaret. She decided to test only when her symptoms worsened into flu-like – severe headache, aching muscles over her whole body, high fever, dizziness when standing, cough and loss of sense of taste and smell. She has spent 3 days confined to her bed, and only now is starting to feel a little better. She is only 30!
She is a sceptic herself, which is why she did two lateral flow tests, and then a PCR – in order to not have to go to work. The fact that all 3 were positive has to rule out the ‘false positive’ theory, I’m afraid, especially given the symptoms.
If you want to know whether you actually had summer colds or covid, why not get an antibody test? I had one last year (negative), but I am tempted to have another. Wouldn’t it be good to have a positive antibody test, hence knowing that you have become immune without ever realising you had the virus?
LF tests are a joke in terms of reliability – we all know (or should by now) that the PCR test throws up false positives. She’s been in bed for 3 days – that’s the average time I spend in bed whenever I have an unpleasant cold. People do catch colds in the summer. If she has had Sars-Cov-2, then it indicates that for the vast majority of healthy people, it’s nothing to worry about. But we know that, don’t we?
(i) If the reliability of the tests were as low as 50%, the probability of a true positive in 3 tests is 87.5%. The reliability must surely be > 50% though.
(ii) Definitely not a cold. She’s never been bedridden by a cold before – nor have I in fact.
Of course I agree that covid is nothing to worry about for nearly all healthy people. I never said anything contradictory to this. What I said was good for her is that she now needn’t have to be subject to the vaccine. That’s good, isn’t it?
Yes that’s the thing, I think the “delta variant” actually makes a better vaccine than the “vaccines”. Contagious but mild. Herd immunity here we come
Taking the scarce statements about this literally, somewhat less than 2500 people who travelled to the final tested positive afterwards, 1991 of these being from Scotland. That’s technically “thousands” but miniscule when compared to the number of people who were there.
Check yesterday’s “hearsay of hundreds” article in the I for that: The COVID-powers-that-be desparately wanted this to happen but it didn’t. Hence, they’re trying to make do with bluster and hand-waiving, as usual.
I’m a bit confused here. Are you saying that 1991 Scots tested positive after the final – between England and Italy? Or are you actually referring to the game between England and Scotland – which took place on June 18th, two days after the start of the Scottish ‘surge’ in infections, that preceded England’s by 2 weeks. If so, then it rather backs up my own contention, does it not?
In any event, I wasn’t talking about what happened at Wembley, rather that there were many thousands – even millions wouldn’t be too surprising – who gathered in large tight-knit groups, in houses, pubs, parks, stadia even, to watch the last 3 England Games, on 3rd, 7th and 11th July. I remember being out in my garden on these occasions, and the surround-sound of support, especially when England scored, was immense! I think if one suspends one’s cynicism (rather than scepticism) about the situation, it is easy to conclude that these gatherings provide near perfect scenarios for rampant spreading of any active virus.
Going back to my daughter: she was with a sizeable group of friends at the pub on final night, but it seems she was the only one of them who ended up with Covid. However at least two of her group are reporting that they had contracted tonsillitis. Seems unlikely to me, probably just sore throats from shouting too much, but who knows? Wrongful self-diagnosis perhaps? Maybe the circumstances encouraged spread of streptococcus and/or other bacteria, as well as whatever viruses were around.
Time will tell if I am right or not, but sometimes the simple explanation is the most obvious, especially where statistics are concerned.
And after a 45-year career working with health data and statistics, I am well aware that “correlation does not equal causation”. Furthermore our politicians, media and most of the sheeple need to be told that “coincidence doesn’t equal correlation” either!
Simple hint: Whenever you “think” I might have wanted to say something which contradicts what I said, you “think” wrongly.
I asked you a simple question, that’s all. Why not just answer it and save the snark for someone who deserves it?
“Nearly 2,000 COVID cases in Scotland have been linked to football fans watching Euro 2020 fixtures.
Of the 1,991 cases registered by Public Health Scotland (PHS), two-thirds said they had traveled to London to watch England v Scotland on 18 June.
A total of 397 of these were fans at the game at Wembley Stadium.”
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-nearly-2-000-cases-linked-to-scotland-fans-watching-euro-2020-games-12345619
Looking at today’s ‘case’ count for England, the 7-day moving average appears to be leveling off again. Of course, it’s only one day so too soon to call it a trend, but let’s see how this week goes.
I suspect that Ferguson’s prediction of 200k cases per day is going to as risible as his previous apocalyptic predictions. Maybe the dumb-assed politicians will then stop listening to him, or is that too much to hope for?
This interesting article discusses evolution of virus to adapt to warmer climates
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.09.451812v1
Impact of temperature on the affinity of SARS-CoV-2 Spike for ACE2 This translated into enhanced interaction of the full Spike to ACE2 receptor and higher viral attachment at low temperatures. Interestingly, the RBD N501Y mutation, present in emerging variants of concern (VOCs) that are fueling the pandemic worldwide, bypassed this requirement. This data suggests that the acquisition of N501Y reflects an adaptation to warmer climates, a hypothesis that remains to be tested
Ah yes bioRxiv , funded by the ChanZuckerberg Initiative, a font of unbiased knowledge.
There’s a surge because people are obsessed with testing…testing for fragments of old infections which could be a urinary infection or any other infection we constantly fight off in our lives. Stop being a hypochondriac and trust the immune system by taking care of it with sunshine, oxygen and good nutrition. It helps to stay a healthy weight.
Zoe has been informing everybody that the symptoms for covid is now like a bad cold. Therefore, the only cases that could be verified have to be done with a PCR test with all its fallibility and I don’t think this is happening to any great extent.
Hay fever has been particularly bad this year as I have been suffering and I know quite a few people who had summer colds. How much of this is being misidentified as covid? The problem is at the moment no one’s looking beyond covid.
As an aside, locally in the Borough of Redbridge where I live it appears that both on Zoe and the official reporting appears to suggest that “cases” are now plateauing.
Finally, it’s all well and good to state how many people have been admitted to hospital but this is pretty meaningless when you don’t give the data about how many people have been discharged recovered from covid.
I’m having my first bout of hay fever in probably a decade. I’m American and can’t remember the last time I had it in UK. I have wondered if I managed to pick up the delta variant, but it’s so mild and it comes and goes like hay fever. Who expected such things to become the main topic of conversation?
The timing of pollen levels and so on varies quite a bit from year to year. I’m allergic to (probably) grass pollen in the main, and it was a lot later this year cf last year on account of the weather. This site is quite useful: https://www.worcester.ac.uk/about/academic-schools/school-of-science-and-the-environment/science-and-the-environment-research/national-pollen-and-aerobiology-research-unit/pollen-forecast.aspx This year, from my perspective it’s over, more or less.
Exactly what I noticed, there was a huge volume of grass (nicely sequestering carbon) and due to the late spring a whole lot of species came into flower at once. I had to wash the car windscreen more often than usual due to the deposits so no wonder it got into my nose and lungs.
Most years I don’t get hay fever at all but this was not one of those years. Lots of other people suffering too, hopefully not dumb enough to get tested.
A thought: if the recent surges, eg in Glasgow after the football match are logged so quickly, the incubation period of this bug must now be very short – a lot less than the five days assumed for purposes of self isolation.
Random thought: if Max Verstappen has been taken to a hospital in Northamptonshire for a check up he has almost certainly got Covid by now. Fortunately he should be out of isolation by the next race. But the entire Red Bull team will probably have been fingered by test and trace by then.
Could mask wearing be driving hospital admissions?
Breathlessness as a worrying symptom of Covid is driven physiologically by the higher than normal levels of carbon dioxide not by lower blood oxygen levels.
We know that SARS infection reduces oxygen levels, but mask raise carbon dioxide levels in the absence of infection.
Mask wearing is not just scientifically unjustified but medically dangerous.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=GBR~IND
Shocked, shocked that it’s over in , urm, India, without the aid of :
– jabs
– masks
– tests
– distancing
– isolation ‘apps’
– fear porn
– ‘SAGE’
– antiseptic hand wipes
– indoor plumbing
– meat in the diet
The cynic in me – like some creature from ‘Alien’ slowly gobbling me up from the inside – thinks redubbing this variant ‘delta’was intended to turn sheeps’ heads (it does not take much after emptying them for 18 months) away from the geographical source,
the better not to look at the actual, living, un-modelled data that actually matters. Has ’The Science’ not yet discovered the ‘cross section’?
Happy Freedom Day, dissident wallahs!
As long as the vaccines haven’t buggered up natural cellular immunity processes, the more people that get the virus now and develop natural immunity, the better.
Remember this data in several weeks time when they try to falsely claim that easing restrictions has caused the rise. They did the same trick mandating masks during case decline as proof of effectiveness. Same thing in reverse now. Medical fraud using PCR and LFT testing.
More interesting graphic. This shows the daily change of cases as factor for the first and second orders. The second order graph is notable because of the following pattern: After a period of oscillating above the “growth/ decline” line, it usually goes sharply downward and growth starts to come down. After a few days, it suddenly goes sharply upward again.
I’m very much inclined to believe that the downward movement is what naturally happens as soon as “infection finding efforts” lapse and that the upticks are the result of someone rolling up his sleaves for another round of “We must try harder if we don’t want this to end soon!”.
NB: Graph has been smoothed by running it through a function close to a 7 day rolling trimean (different from a trimean insofer as it also includes the weighted extremes in the average, with the other weights increased proportionally).
Testademic. Go look for something, anything, with RT-PCR Cts at 45 , and you will find it. Being human probably triggers it in the %ages reported.
Where are the corresponding charts showing hospitalisations and deaths?
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
The driver in increasing ‘cases’ is NOT a mystery. It’s the fact that a dodgy test is being used on over 1,000,000 people a day, and test and trace is an appalling failure.