Today the ONS announced that there were 8,808 deaths in England and Wales in the week ending 2nd July 2021. This is 118 more than the previous week, but still 5.2% below the five-year average. Here’s the chart from the ONS:
Deaths in England and Wales have now been below the five-year average for 14 of the past 17 weeks. Over that time, there were 9,484 fewer deaths than you’d expect based on the average of the last five years. And recall that, due to population ageing, the five-year average understates the expected number of deaths. Hence the true level of “negative excess mortality” is even greater.
The number of deaths registered in the week ending July 2nd was below the five-year average in seven out of nine English regions. (Only the North East and North West saw positive excess deaths.) Compared to the five-year average, weekly deaths were 10.7% lower in the East of England, and a remarkable 12.1% lower in the South East.
The fact that “negative excess mortality” has now persisted for three consecutive months supports the hypothesis that deaths were “brought forward” by the pandemic.
It’s been widely noted that the link between cases and deaths has weakened substantially in recent weeks, thanks to the build up of population immunity. Although the number of daily infections has surpassed 20,000, the number of daily deaths remains in the low double digits. However, the situation is actually even more positive: measured by excess deaths, the pandemic hasn’t taken any lives since early March.
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yes – because they died earlier in the year when their frail bodies could not take the vaccines
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More deaths in the UK than France (with its (presumably) lower vaccine uptake) since December. I still want to know why
We know the jabs are killing people. We also know USA and UK need to be broken in order that DAVOS can take control of the West.
This is much wider than just coercing people into killing themselves
The ‘racketeering and corruption’ that led to man-made Covid virus being unleashed
By
Neville Hodgkinson
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-racketeering-and-corruption-that-led-to-man-made-covid-virus-being-unleashed/
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9484?
Prefix with a 1 and you have the original and the chosen title of Orwell’s book
Just saying
It’s all over now baby blue
Great. More dry tinder to make the winter surge even scarier than they are already planning and scare everyone witless.
If you look at the ‘estimated total deaths 2021’ tab of the ONS spreadsheet with today’s release you can compare the estimated deaths occurring in each week with the 5 year average and produce this chart.
This helps to take out the bank holiday effects that affect some weeks.
We are currently running at 11.8% below average based on that. That’s the furthest week to the right on the chart. It looked like we were heading back to the 5 year average but it’s now trending below again for the past 3 weeks.
(while this uses ONS modelling, all the modelling really does is to assign which week a reported death has occurred in, so is reasonable to do modelling here)
For goodness sake Noah, the only deaths that now matter are those which happen within 28 days of a positive PCR test!
Don’t bother me with your ONS nonsense.
So we saved 3 months of 200,000 82 year olds lives by ruining 2 years for 70 million people.
SAGE should be stuffed.
Don’t you mean “SAGE should be chuffed?”
hanged more like
There is no one to hang them.
There is no one to stuff them.
The five year average used isn’t the last five year average but a five year average including some of the lowest mortality years per million of population ever;
‘The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.’
If the correct last five year average was used, these latest figures would be even.further below the five year average.
The ONS changed its rules again.
Anyone who has had anything to do with government agencies over the last 20 years will know that they have long since lost any sense of perspective, any ability to take a frank look in the mirror.
Blair’s Britain: a democratic socialist state with a fascist health establishment.
Good point.
If you exclude 2020 because it is a high mortality year, then perhaps you should exclude 2019 also as it was an unusually low mortality year.
So even if there is perhaps an element of logic in excluding 2020 I agree the 5 year period chosen by ONS is distorting things.
Calculation (of all-cause mortality) on the basis of two-year periods (which allows for some smoothing ‘dry tinder’ and ‘higher mortality’ years) is very revealing – more so than a moving average.
If you look at the pattern, you will be even more reassured that nothing unusual is happening.
The insistence throughout 2020 that the 2015-19 average was the only correct comparator destroys any reason to now exclude 2020.
2015-19 we’re all unusually low mortality years if you look at the historic trend.
What they’re doing now is tacitly admitting that the using the average of the previous 5 years as a comparator was a mistake. 5 years is clearly not long enough to establish a long term mortality trend. Any variation is going to look like a far larger data spike than it would if set within a longer context.
And deaths in hospitals in England and Wales are 15% below the 5 year average.
Clearly hospitals are under so much pressure that much less people are dying in them. Work that one out if you can.
The scary number of excess home deaths continues. These are likely to include some who have been denied NHS treatment and have died at home instead of being treated in hospital.
To date, 1,440 deaths from the ‘vaccine’, 1,037,376 adverse reactions.
//Those figures are voluntarily reported to a Yellow Card system which most people don’t even know exists.
Even if the ONS produced statistics showing that not a single person died in England and Wales in any week, or series of weeks, it would make sod-all difference. The stupid Government and its leader are as weak as water, the “Opposition” are even worse, and armies of vested interests, who have zero to lose from prolonging this outrage and everything to gain, will tub-thump their pro-lockdown and restrictions propaganda into the servile sheep that now make up a majority in these countries.
Indeed, back at the start of this hoo-haa the ONS weekly figure of registered deaths was regularly reported. And rightly so as, if you are doing Public Health properly, the weekly registered death figure is a key factor. However, we have now moved a long way from trying to do Public Health properly, as soon as they started to ignore this measure it was clear that there were more sinister and devious things going on.
I do not know of a single person who has died specifically of Covid. But I do know of people who have died very shortly after taking the experiemental gene therapy, or who have developed very serious ailments e.g. chronic nose bleeds, lesions on the brain etc.
Maybe we should start are own adverse reactions list in the comments pages? Especially as neither of the two ailments mentioned above were reported using the Yellow Card mechanism.
Emergency ambulance came into our street to pick up a neighbour who had a severe nose bleed a month ago. She’d never had nose bleeds before I’m told by another neighbour.
Would have been around the time of the second experimental vaccination but don’t know for sure that she ‘chose’ to be experimentally vaccinated.
I had a dose of the 1958 (real) epidemic. It was a nasty bug, and affected a much wider spectrum of the population. I also caught the 1965(?) virus.
Both had severe nose-bleeds as a late symptom. The 1958 one was particularly severe.
Have we got records of cancer deaths anywhere, since this began, are they within the 5 year average, ditto, dementia……
There should be numbers. But cancer mortality effects of lockdown will probably peak later, given the later diagnoses (but not immediate fatalities).
The same might well happen with suicides as well, when the financial impact of all this really hits.
The baseline is too short – and consequently misleading (and forget the useless term “excess deaths”).
The period used is one of anomaly – very low mortality. Take a reasonable (much longer inclusive baseline), and the absence of deaths is even more obvious.
“… the link between cases and deaths has weakened substantially in recent weeks, thanks to the build up of population immunity.”
Population immunity is probably one factor, but the other likely factor is (contrary to the fear mythology), mutation causing less severity – the ususual pattern.
Don’t let the facts get in the way of a good communist coup
There may be fewer deaths nationally, but it feels like there’s definitely more death locally. And everyone is sort of in a state of shock.
One thing to note from the line diagram : the different shapes of the upsurges in 2020 and 2021.
The January 2021 is very interesting, with that rocket-like departure from trajectory after the start of the innoculation of a vulnerable population, and then the slower decline. (Compare it also with any other infection season peak)
No – it’s not proof, but it adds to my reasons of a decision not to touch the snake oil with a barge-pole.
We Are The Petri Dish For A Dangerous Experimental Vaccine
https://rumble.com/vjr0lf-we-are-the-petri-dish-for-a-dangerous-experimental-vaccine.html
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2/3 of the Delta deaths are vaccinated, 46% of them 21 days after their 2nd dose
1/3 of total Delta cases are vaccinated
Vaccinated do transmit, get sick and die. Vaccines are already passe and dangerous.
Delta has a CFR of 0,2%, almost 10 times less than Alpha.
End of story.
Your PHE, pp. 11, 16, 17
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001358/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_18.pdf
Let’s break this down by age. I compare with the population-adjusted figures for 2010-2019. Overall, we have been below average deaths since the beginning of March (dash-dot lines, right axis).
Looking at excess deaths (left axis), they have been insignificant since the beginning of the year for under 50s. The older the age group, the more significant the excess deaths are from the beginning of the year to the beginning of March. These deaths are more than balanced by reduced deaths after the beginning of March.
Up to the beginning of March, over 90% of care home residents had received their first jabs. Their jabs had been delayed a couple of weeks. The peak deaths in a ‘normal’ year appear around 8th January. In 2021, we see a peak in deaths in that age group that correlates with the jab programme. Had the jabs not been delayed, the peak would have been in sync with previous years and not so glaringly obvious.
Anyway, the long and short of it now is that, overall, we have been normal in terms of weekly deaths for four months, despite so-called ‘variants’ and ‘cases’. Indeed, we were ‘normal’ this time last year. There is no pandemic, no emergency and no need for restrictions of any kind. The jabs have had no net effect that is not accounted for by seasonal variations – apart from bringing forward some deaths in the older age groups.
Never let the truth spoil a good story.
When will the real reasons for this governments policies be reported and discussed. It’s all very well to print facts but everyone who has a connection to Westminster and the Government need to be lobbying for the truth to be discussed. I have yet to listen or watch one single press conference by Johnson, Witless or unbalanced. As for Michie …..why is a communist anywhere near Government policymaking?
The people of this country need to now stand up and ignore this Government. They may possible turn violent towards us. Biden is becoming deranged with the American people….not difficult I know. However, they are fighting back because they know the truth.
Johnson and his Democrat lackeys also know the truth. The full truth and still laugh at the voters. We need to start rattling cages and stop worrying about upsetting our ‘friends’ in Whitehall.
“the link between cases and deaths has weakened…” What a surprise. “alleged infections” might be a better term than “cases” in this context. It is a fake result of flawed techniques, to a large extent, is it not? Plus the possibility is that the real thing is less hazardous than advertised, as it were, to the vast majority.
Incidentally, having read the ONS report, you will know that from week 27 they are going to taper it down to some extent, so we’ll see what is in it then.
Try explaining this to the morons who constitute 95% of the population.
The concern is when you consider how stupid the average person is then realise that 50% of the population are more stupid…
Shhh,
People will start coming out and saying things like “see everything we’ve done has saved lives…”
The ‘racketeering and corruption’ that led to man-made Covid virus being unleashed
By
Neville Hodgkinson
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-racketeering-and-corruption-that-led-to-man-made-covid-virus-being-unleashed/
Stand in South Hill Park Bracknell every Sunday from 10am meet fellow lockdown sceptics, keep yourself sane, make new friends and have a laugh.
Join our Stand in the Park – Bracknell – Telegram Group
http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell